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StatTiger

2018 Statistical Review, Part I

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Stat, the TO ratio is interesting.  We made had view but the only new we had were critical and impacted several games; Tenn and LSU for sure.  Without, I feel we win both

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When you see how many times CGM teams have had offensive production compared to past classes it seems we’re heading in the right direction! However, it needs to translate into wins and championships to matter. Here’s hoping!

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This is a good reminder. We arent in as bad a spot as we all myself included like to think,. We ALSO havent taken that next step from having an elite team and season every 4-6 years to being elite year in year out....thats the step we need to take....but this shows we have made prgress under CGM. 

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9 hours ago, StatTiger said:

·        Auburn's offense turned the ball over once every 74.5 snaps, the best ratio by an Auburn offense during the past 36 seasons. This has been a trademark of a Malzahn offense, which has seven of Auburn's top-8 ratios from 1983-2018

·        Last season Auburn lost 66.7 percent of their fumbles. This season the Tigers improved their "lost fumbles percentage" to 30.8 percent. It was the second lowest percentage by an Auburn team the past 29 seasons (1990-2018).

The dramatic improvement in fumbles lost might be a statistical anomaly due to a relatively small sample size (thankfully). 

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On 1/5/2019 at 5:34 PM, CodeRocket said:

The dramatic improvement in fumbles lost might be a statistical anomaly due to a relatively small sample size (thankfully). 

A lot of those from last season were by Stidham, so him not running as much definitely helped lower that number. lol

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Thanks Stat, excellent as always! That include the Music City Bowl w/ its crazy great O numbers but AU's 2018 statistical outlier to say the least - yes? Not being a wet rag, just curious.😁

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The problem with looking back 30+ years in statistics is that (1) the game has changed, and (2) Whitlow ain't Frederickson, and (3) I don't really give a crap if Malzahn's last team was #16 in history on some meaningless stat.

The reality is, statistically and W-L, that Auburn's current football coaching staff is not producing the results Auburn expects. 12th best in the past 35 years be damned. 7-5 be damned. Get the Sh*t outta yer diapers and win some football games!

 

 

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On 1/5/2019 at 9:28 AM, StatTiger said:

 

·        The 2018 Music City Bowl marked the 47th time Auburn passed for at least 300-yards from 1961-2018. Auburn's 16.4 yards per pass attempt was the second-best average per pass attempt among the 47 three-hundred yard passing games.

 

 

 

·        Jarrett Stidham finished his Auburn career with 5934 yards passing, and 36 touchdown passes. He accounted for 42 career touchdowns, throwing only 11 interceptions from 739 pass attempts. Auburn was 16-0 when Stidham had a pass rating of 130 or better and 2-9 when he did not. He was involved in 139 impact plays during his career. In comparison, Nick Marshall had 143 during his two seasons as the starter.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn offense finished No. 14 among the last 32 Auburn offenses (1987-2018) with a play of 30-yards every 35.8 snaps. The Auburn defense finished No. 23 among the last 27 Auburn defenses, allowing a big play every 32.0 plays.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn offense scored in 76.9 percent of their quarters played, dropping from the 85.7 percent in 2017. The Auburn defense blanked the opponent in 28.8 percent of the quarters defended, a drop from the 37.5 percent during 2017. Auburn's offense ranked No. 16 among the last 38 Auburn offenses in the fewest quarters held scoreless.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn offense finished No. 10 among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018) with an impact play every 8.5 snaps. The 2017 Auburn offense was No. 15, which is an indicator the 2019 Auburn offense will have the talent to work with next season on offense.

 

 

 

·        Auburn created a short field (Inside the opponent's side of the field) 18.7 percent this season. This was fifth best among the last 26 Auburn teams (1993-2018). This is huge when you consider Auburn scores on 31 percent of their possessions on their side of the field, compared to the 65 percent when beginning a drive on the opposition's side of the field. This trend needs to continue moving forward.

 

 

 

·        Based on an efficiency formula based on yards per game, yards per play, TD ratio, 3rd down percentage, first down production and strength of schedule, the 2018 Auburn offense ranks No. 12 among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018). Six of the top-10 Auburn offenses have occurred under Gus Malzahn.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn offense ranks No. 33 among the last 49 Auburn offenses (1970-2018), scoring an offensive touchdown outside the red zone, 28.3 percent of the time. The 2017 Auburn offense was No. 16, making 2018 a huge drop off from the season before. Auburn's lack of big-play ability hurt Auburn's scoring production.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn pass offense ranks No. 9 among the last 33 Auburn offenses (1986-2018) in pass-efficiency.

 

 

 

·        The 2018 Auburn running game ranked No. 18 among the last 33 Auburn offenses (1986-2018) based on yards per game, yards per rush and TD ratio. Malzahn's offenses have five of the top-7 slots.

 

 

 

·        For the fourth time in six seasons, Auburn was penalized less than the opponent. Before Malzahn taking over as head coach, Auburn was penalized more than the opponent during six of seven seasons.

 

 

 

·        Auburn's 2018 Auburn offense ranks No. 16 among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018), averaging 30.5 yards per possession. The Auburn defense finished at No. 17, allowing 27.3 yards per possession.

 

 

 

·        Auburn averaged 2.4 points per possession this season, finishing No. 12 among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018).

 

 

 

·        38.0 percent of Auburn's possessions netted at least 40-yards this season. This was 11th among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018).

 

 

 

·        During conference play, Auburn scored TD's on 21.2 percent of their possessions, No. 14 among the last 27 Auburn offenses (1992-2018). The Auburn defense ranked No. 15, allowing conference opponents to score touchdowns, 19.2 percent of the time.

 

 

 

·        Auburn's opponent averaged 3.1 points per an Auburn turnover. This was the second worst point value the past 27 seasons by an Auburn team.

 

 

 

·        Auburn's offense turned the ball over once every 74.5 snaps, the best ratio by an Auburn offense during the past 36 seasons. This has been a trademark of a Malzahn offense, which has seven of Auburn's top-8 ratios from 1983-2018.

 

 

 

·        Last season Auburn lost 66.7 percent of their fumbles. This season the Tigers improved their "lost fumbles percentage" to 30.8 percent. It was the second lowest percentage by an Auburn team the past 29 seasons (1990-2018).

 

 

 

·        Auburn's TD to turnover ratio this season was 3.54, third best among the last 36 seasons (1983-2018). Malzahn's offense finished in top-7, six times.

 

 

 

·        45.6 percent of Auburn's offensive snaps this season was part of a scoring drive. This year's offense finished No. 13 among the last 29 Auburn offenses (1990-2018). The 2018 Auburn defense finished No. 20 among the last 29 Auburn defenses at 38.4 percent. The 2017 Auburn defense was No. 6.

 

 

 

War Eagle!

The most telling statistic of a season that I have ever seen you produce was the 20-20/10-30 rule.  I am not shocked at the results for 2018, because I felt like we had experienced starters everywhere but the O-Line.  I believe we brought a cumulative of 20 starts combined into the season on the O-Line, where as the O-Line in 2013 was over 100 and 2010 was over 150, if I remember correctly.  I wonder how this next year with so many meaningful starters returning may fair.  Would you be able to show us how the start to 2018 faired as a team as well as the O-Line and then based on current projected roster how 2019 is shaping up.  I believe Big Bird has enjoyed this stat as well.  TIA.

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On 1/5/2019 at 10:02 AM, toddc said:

When you see how many times CGM teams have had offensive production compared to past classes it seems we’re heading in the right direction! However, it needs to translate into wins and championships to matter. Here’s hoping!

No offense meant at all, but do you mind breaking down how next year's OL, RB, and QB positions are "heading in the right direction"?

 

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45 minutes ago, thrustmaxwell said:

No offense meant at all, but do you mind breaking down how next year's OL, RB, and QB positions are "heading in the right direction"?

 

The OL returns 5 starters from a group that improved as the season went on, the leading rusher was a redshirt freshman (with all other primary contributors returning), and we replace a QB (who seemed more intent on playing out another season in college to enter the draft in a down year for QBs than being part of the team) with an open competition between a junior with a little bit of game experience, a redshirt freshman with all the measurables to be a standout, and a true freshman who is a two time state champion, Mr. Football in Alabama, the son of a former Power 5 offensive coordinator, and from all reports has an astronomical football IQ. 

That said, however, I feel pretty certain the first five words of your post were made in sarcasm, based upon what I know about you.

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On 1/9/2019 at 2:07 PM, tigerwings said:

The most telling statistic of a season that I have ever seen you produce was the 20-20/10-30 rule.  I am not shocked at the results for 2018, because I felt like we had experienced starters everywhere but the O-Line.  I believe we brought a cumulative of 20 starts combined into the season on the O-Line, where as the O-Line in 2013 was over 100 and 2010 was over 150, if I remember correctly.  I wonder how this next year with so many meaningful starters returning may fair.  Would you be able to show us how the start to 2018 faired as a team as well as the O-Line and then based on current projected roster how 2019 is shaping up.  I believe Big Bird has enjoyed this stat as well.  TIA.

Count me in as a big time believer in this rule as well. If I was a serious betting man I would utilize this measure when choosing which teams to put money on before the year starts

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Other than TO related stats; this was a very middle of the road offense.  Best stats were 11 of 27; most were 13 or 14 up to 19.  Doesn't feel like much to be excited about.  A mediocre offense with no returning QB, RB and replacing top receiver.  Sorry  guys....we are living the 2nd coming.....of Doug Barfield

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On 2/27/2019 at 3:36 PM, Tiger said:

Count me in as a big time believer in this rule as well. If I was a serious betting man I would utilize this measure when choosing which teams to put money on before the year starts

I would too. 

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