A warning about SEC Play

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

I don't believe we are going to "look" like we are as good of a team as last season, even though I do believe this team could beat last year's team. Almost every team in the SEC has at least a very decent squad capable of winning a game or two in the NCAA tournament. The average team in the SEC went about 9-3 in the non conference this season. That is really good when your conference is playing in Maui, playing Kansas and Gonzaga, Duke twice, Arizona State, NC State, Florida State, and on and on....

 

The worst non conference record in our league was achieved by South Carolina at 5-7, and that team just went to Gainesville and beat Florida, a team that went 8-4. Texas A&M went 6-5 in the non-conference, and just about beat Arkansas, a team that went 9-3 and could very well make the NCAA tournament. Ole Miss could be a threat this season as well. They went into Nashville and beat a really good Vandy team- one that handled Arizona State about a month ago by 15. Of course, Alabama also knocked off #13 Kentucky over the weekend as well. 

 

I don't say this for gloom and doom purposes, I say this as a caution to the pessimists on the board- the league is insanely competitive this year. We will win some games that we should be underdogs in, and we will probably lose a few games that we should be favorites in. The moral of the story is don't get in an uproar if we lose a game we "should've won." Tennessee may be the only team that can really expected to be the favorite in most every one of their games. We are probably just as good as Tennessee, but we haven't quite found it yet. Be patient with this Auburn team, and remember that this is an incredibly challenging league this season. There are really only 2 teams that we can really feel comfortable that we will beat pretty easily. We will be favored in most of the rest, but we will lose some. The SEC is going to get a ton of teams in the tournament this year, methinks, and if we don't go 14-4, that does not mean we have regressed. 

We have built a program up to a level of relevance. Yes, the next step is playing for championships, but even the established champions are being tested in the SEC this season. Don't jump off the plane at the first sign of turbulence.

 

War Eagle.

[gravejd 3,269]

Good post but it won't matter to the complainers. They will complain regardless. I read an article recently where Pearl mentioned this as well. We lost 5 games in SEC last season and Pearl said he expects we will lose more then that this season. Not because we are necessarily worse but because the SEC as a whole has improved. This team has to show the ability to focus in and refuse to lose like last years team. I don't know that we are there yet personally.....but i'm hopeful we can get there with the players that we have. Its going to take great effort every single time out there to get these wins and we'll probably lose some even when we give great effort just because the other team is good and better then us on that particular day. Hopefully getting punched in the mouth by NCState taught the team something about brining the A game every time out. 

[AU64 10,122]

37 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

I say this as a caution to the pessimists on the board- the league is insanely competitive this year. We will win some games that we should be underdogs in, and we will probably lose a few games that we should be favorites in.

Agree....though I still wonder if the league is that strong in a national sense though the distribution of the top 25 among the conferences is pretty even so maybe I underestimate the SEC.   …..but no doubt it looks to be very balanced.    

JMO but the team that wins the SEC is the one who can win a bunch of road games which is tough to do.      By and large, in recent years AU has not been a very good road team and hopefully we are able do better this season.    Basketball seems to favor the home team so the 'upsets like ASU at Vandy" are not so remarkable if you consider what it's like for a visitor to play in the funky arena in Nashville.    I'm just hoping that AU "owns" the Auburn Arena…..and then pulls some surprises on the road...and avoids being swept by anyone. . 

[jared52 4,354]

Auburn is a team that is far from peaking. Shooting hasn’t been great, especially on the road. Defensively, AU is playing well at least from a half court perspective. Full court pressure hasn’t been all that good thus far. 

Working in Wiley seemed to slow the offense down and it’s not really picking up much. Brown and Harper aren’t hitting 3s at thier former pace and it’s keeping AU from getting big offensive runs like last year. That might come but I expect this team to lose more games than last year not just from a more difficult schedule perspective but also from a target on their back perspective. Teams WANT to beat AU and playing away will mean bigger crowds creating more hostile environments, and in basketball, environments matter a lot. 

I’m always nervous when AU is the hunted team. It’s easy to feel AU usually doesn’t excel in that situation. I hope that’s not the case this year. To be honest, AU hasn’t played very well in a while, pretty much all of Dec. I hope the switch flips soon or AU will find itself dropping like a rock through their schedule. AU has to win all the games they are expected to win starting Wednesday night in Oxford. 

[AUGoo 2,659]

They’ll get their legs under them and be ready to go.

[NoALtiger 3,849]

9 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

They’ll get their legs under them and be ready to go.

1 game in 19 days. If legs are an issue, we’ve got s problem. 

[doverstutts 1,643]

6 minutes ago, NoALtiger said:

1 game in 19 days. If legs are an issue, we’ve got s problem. 

that worries me....ole miss is pretty good

[WarTiger 3,896]

4 hours ago, jared52 said:

Auburn is a team that is far from peaking. Shooting hasn’t been great, especially on the road. Defensively, AU is playing well at least from a half court perspective. Full court pressure hasn’t been all that good thus far. 

Working in Wiley seemed to slow the offense down and it’s not really picking up much. Brown and Harper aren’t hitting 3s at thier former pace and it’s keeping AU from getting big offensive runs like last year. That might come but I expect this team to lose more games than last year not just from a more difficult schedule perspective but also from a target on their back perspective. Teams WANT to beat AU and playing away will mean bigger crowds creating more hostile environments, and in basketball, environments matter a lot. 

I’m always nervous when AU is the hunted team. It’s easy to feel AU usually doesn’t excel in that situation. I hope that’s not the case this year. To be honest, AU hasn’t played very well in a while, pretty much all of Dec. I hope the switch flips soon or AU will find itself dropping like a rock through their schedule. AU has to win all the games they are expected to win starting Wednesday night in Oxford. 

You are right.  Harper is hitting 3's BETTER this year than he did last year.  Last year he shot .355 from 3 pt range.  This year he's at .412   Brown's numbers are down a bit from last year .382 to .360.

[AUGoo 2,659]

Just now, WarTiger said:

You are right.  Harper is hitting 3's BETTER this year than he did last year.  Last year he shot .355 from 3 pt range.  This year he's at .412   Brown's numbers are down a bit from last year .382 to .360.

Surprised at BB's stat.  It has felt he has been way off this preseason, but numbers don't back it up.  

[jared52 4,354]

3 hours ago, WarTiger said:

You are right.  Harper is hitting 3's BETTER this year than he did last year.  Last year he shot .355 from 3 pt range.  This year he's at .412   Brown's numbers are down a bit from last year .382 to .360.

I should have checked the numbers. Harper’s impact has been much different this year than last, but for some reason if FEELS like his 3 ball hasn’t been as impactful lately.

[gravejd 3,269]

9 hours ago, jared52 said:

I should have checked the numbers. Harper’s impact has been much different this year than last, but for some reason if FEELS like his 3 ball hasn’t been as impactful lately.

I'm too lazy to look up the numbers but i expect Harper is shooting less 3s then last season and is shooting a better percentage. It does seem like isn't bombing them like he did last season

[lost 452]

The SEC is quick and athletic.  We are unlike teams from some conferences with a big center( for the most part)  and size everywhere else.  Therefore, it is talent vs talent more than size every night.  This allows parity if you have solid guard play and you take advantage of home court.  We will find it tough when we go into places like Fayetteville and Starkville and Tuscaloosa.... 

To me, this is what i want to see happen.  I want to see the inside game blossom and it and the outside be connected.  I want to see Wiley with 20 plus a night and Okeke become a force on the inside too.  Then when the defense collapses, it kicked out and the 3's start raining.....  A deadly one, two punch...    Combine that with a driving Harper and McCormick, Brown and Daughty and we have an offense that will be unstoppable.

[AU64 10,122]

9 hours ago, jared52 said:

I should have checked the numbers. Harper’s impact has been much different this year than last, but for some reason if FEELS like his 3 ball hasn’t been as impactful lately.

We were not a particularly good shooting team last season and not a good shooting team this year....but forcing turnovers and getting lots more opportunities than our opponents.   

We have 150 more FG attempts and 90 more 3 point attempts than our opponent.  ...so what we are losing in quality so to speak, we are making up in quantity. 

[KolchakAU85 430]

Personally, I've had to correct my expectations for the team this year.  I was expecting too much too soon.

I think we'll definitely lose more SEC games this year than last, and I think making the Sweet 16 will be our ceiling, but not assured by a long shot.

The thing I'm very pleasantly surprised about is our defense.  It's outstanding.

The thing that perplexes me the most is our inability to get the the free throw line.

Like someone said in an earlier post, it doesn't feel like Bryce Brown's is playing as well as his stats seem to indicate.

But I like this team.  We're gonna do well and continue to give recruits a reason to seriously consider us.

And I think next year's team will accomplish everything we thought this year's team would a few weeks ago.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

I think I have my expectations in order for SEC play. I expect us to struggle some and give up runs that may seem frustrating, but all is part of the game.

This first game at OleMiss will be good for our guys because we need to gain more confidence away from Auburn Arena...not a better place to do this than Ole Miss's arena. I expect our defence to travel well, but I'm really curious to see how our offense performs. If our 3 ball is off, I hope we go inside quickly and often, and not fall back to our old habits like we did against NC State.

[mustache eagle 2,388]

8 minutes ago, KolchakAU85 said:

I think we'll definitely lose more SEC games this year than last, and I think making the Sweet 16 will be our ceiling, but not assured by a long shot.

The thing that perplexes me the most is our inability to get the the free throw line.

But I like this team.  We're gonna do well and continue to give recruits a reason to seriously consider us

In yesterday’s pre-ole miss presser CBP made some comments about our FT shooting which I thought was insightful.  

Also ... who would have thunk we’d be having these convos now back when we were at the end of the barbee years.  Crazy ain’t it.

[AU64 10,122]

30 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

I think I have my expectations in order for SEC play. I expect us to struggle some and give up runs that may seem frustrating, but all is part of the game.

This first game at OleMiss will be good for our guys because we need to gain more confidence away from Auburn Arena...not a better place to do this than Ole Miss's arena. I expect our defence to travel well, but I'm really curious to see how our offense performs. If our 3 ball is off, I hope we go inside quickly and often, and not fall back to our old habits like we did against NC State.

OM is a good road game to start with ...a middle of the pack team and from my observation,  fan support is OK but not intimidating.  

We need to win some road games and this is good place to start IMO. 

[AUTigersfan89 256]

42 minutes ago, AU64 said:

OM is a good road game to start with ...a middle of the pack team and from my observation,  fan support is OK but not intimidating.  

We need to win some road games and this is good place to start IMO. 

Exactly. I'm glad it's not Gainesville, Rupp, or Thompson Boling where we start our SEC play... Although we did start with a win at Thompson Boling last year

[Tiger 8,817]

Chuma really needs to assert himself in conference play IMO not only would it put more pressure on teams but I really think Bryce thrives when there's another true threat to score the rock -- like when Heron was here. Bryce can be a killer when someone else is attacking and the ball swings and gets moved to him or he's hit with a pass on the weakside for an open look. But when we just toss it to him on the wing and say get us a bucket he's not nearly as dangerous of a weapon (that through the legs size up he does drives me nuts - - and he sometimes sacrifices an open look just to do that dribble move to take a contested one!). 

Now, if Chuma is still not asserting himself we can still increase Bryce's efficiency by forcing the issue with Wiley. And I mean no more 6 or 7 shot attempts per game for him. I'm talking increasing his looks to 12 or 13 shots a game. Then Bryce can work off of that and if Wiley can kick out Bryce can get some open and rhythm looks from deep

[AUGoo 2,659]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

OM is a good road game to start with ...a middle of the pack team and from my observation,  fan support is OK but not intimidating.  

We need to win some road games and this is good place to start IMO. 

We are the team to beat after last year's championship.

We will face tough crowds every night.  Everyone wants to see the king dethroned.

[AU64 10,122]

6 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

We are the team to beat after last year's championship.

We will face tough crowds every night.  Everyone wants to see the king dethroned.

True to some extent but we are the new guys on the block and probably half the SEC does not know we won the championship last year and still thinks of us  terms of football.   We will get a good effort but I'd be amazed if this is a game where students are standing line at noon waiting for tickets.   OM has only one quality win though it is notable...Vandy at Vandy over the weekend.   Otherwise a very wimpy schedule IMO.

BUT...always gotta be ready on the road. 

[ALLINtheFamily 77]

The tough competition week in and week out will pay off come tourney time.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

25 minutes ago, ALLINtheFamily said:

The tough competition week in and week out will pay off come tourney time.

I agree. I think I was wanting to convey this in my original post, but it may not have been clear. The fact that we are competing against really good teams every week will prepare us for March very well. 

[ALLINtheFamily 77]

45 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

I agree. I think I was wanting to convey this in my original post, but it may not have been clear. The fact that we are competing against really good teams every week will prepare us for March very well. 

[AUGoo 2,659]

3 hours ago, ALLINtheFamily said:

Moronlabe