247 Softball Preview (merged)

[auburnphan 6,050]

https://auburn.247sports.com/Article/A-close-look-at-Auburn-softball-as-game-week-arrives-128650689/

[AU64 10,122]

That was encouraging......Anyone seen Handley pitch yet?   70+....that ought to get some folks attention....especially from the left side.   Will be a huge change if she comes in after opponents have seen a few innings of our righties. 

[slot canyon 1,333]

Regarding Handley, in the fall she had "control issues". She has been out of the game (injury) for a year.

[OlderWhiskey 953]

From 4WDE's post on another thread, she still has some control issues.  Maybe we could use her like the Yankees used Ryne Duren.  He could throw it 95+ and had those big thick glasses.  Always threw the first warmup pitch about 4 feet over the catcher's head.  batters would be edging out of the box before the first pitch even came.

[EagleEye67 1,939]

4 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

From 4WDE's post on another thread, she still has some control issues.  Maybe we could use her like the Yankees used Ryne Duren.  He could throw it 95+ and had those big thick glasses.  Always threw the first warmup pitch about 4 feet over the catcher's head.  batters would be edging out of the box before the first pitch even came.

 

[Hspoprn 199]

I'm ready for the season to start ! Wish I could go to Gulf Shores/OB to see them play.

 

[Hspoprn 199]

While I have some concerns regarding Coach Dean, I am trying to keep an open mind. Here are the top 2 things, IMO, that we need to drastically improve this year:

1. Base running.

2. Team batting average.

Other thoughts?

[all4AU 379]

3 hours ago, Hspoprn said:

While I have some concerns regarding Coach Dean, I am trying to keep an open mind. Here are the top 2 things, IMO, that we need to drastically improve this year:

1. Base running.

2. Team batting average.

Other thoughts?

Coach Dean has said we are much further ahead this year offensively so I feel better about our batting average. However, he says we are going to keep running and putting pressure on the defenses we play. I don’t have a great feeling that our base running will be improved. 😬

[OlderWhiskey 953]

Draper graduated, so base running won't be the weapon it was.  I'm just hoping we hit well enough to have some baserunners.

[slot canyon 1,333]

No doubt hitting was our major deficiency last year. Hopefully that trend will see some reversal this season. Don't expect CMD to change his base stealing philosophy which he clearly stated when he arrived at AU last year. I looked at JMU stats his last two seasons there and in 2016 the SB/Attempts were 77/97 (79%). His last year there, 2017 season 76/93 (82%). Most of those were spread out between 5 players. Last year with new staff they were 33/48 (69%). In 2017 season (Myers) we were 28/32 (87.5%) Last season at AU 99/129 (77%) with Draper going 38/44. The next four contributors ( Fornis, Veach, Podany and McCrackin) combined had 33/44. Our opponents were 20/32 (63%). With Draper gone I expect a decline in attempted steals but still believe we see well above average attempts compared to most teams. If you have a team with hitting deficiencies and you get a reasonably "fast" runner on base I can see that you may try advance them with an attempted steal where chance of success appears to be around 70%. In the past, I would sometimes cringe when coach would send the runner but it may be a more reasonable pursuit than I thought. Also, that throw out at second is one of my favorite plays; except when the runner wears an Auburn uniform.

[AU64 10,122]

17 minutes ago, slot canyon said:

No doubt hitting was our major deficiency last year. Hopefully that trend will see some reversal this season. Don't expect CMD to change his base stealing philosophy which he clearly stated when he arrived at AU last year. I looked at JMU stats his last two seasons there and in 2016 the SB/Attempts were 77/97 (79%). His last year there, 2017 season 76/93 (82%). Most of those were spread out between 5 players. Last year with new staff they were 33/48 (69%). In 2017 season (Myers) we were 28/32 (87.5%) Last season at AU 99/129 (77%) with Draper going 38/44. The next four contributors ( Fornis, Veach, Podany and McCrackin) combined had 33/44. Our opponents were 20/32 (63%). With Draper gone I expect a decline in attempted steals but still believe we see well above average attempts compared to most teams. If you have a team with hitting deficiencies and you get a reasonably "fast" runner on base I can see that you may try advance them with an attempted steal where chance of success appears to be around 70%. In the past, I would sometimes cringe when coach would send the runner but it may be a more reasonable pursuit than I thought. Also, that throw out at second is one of my favorite plays; except when the runner wears an Auburn uniform.

Lots of number crunching these days but seems if you can steal second 70% of the time, and batters are hitting less than .300, there is much better odds of advancing a runner by means of a steal than by hitting away or even a sac bunt.     Seems that after a year of more aggressive base running, even having lost Draper who was a rabbit out there.....we should end up with similar numbers if CMD's views prevail.   I recall that Ole Miss did the same...ran almost every time they had someone on first.     Keeps the pitcher's antsy...and is fun to watch.

[warladytigers 172]

I guess we'll get a feel for it this weekend in Gulf Shores!

[OlderWhiskey 953]

Hard to find any stats for her.  Ardrey Kell is a massive HS (3000 students) in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg area.  

[AU64 10,122]

2 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Hard to find any stats for her.  Ardrey Kell is a massive HS (3000 students) in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg area.  

Found her...played at NW Cabarrus HS last year...poor team, looks like she transferred to Kell.....has a sister playing at Duke...but no stats for PF that I could find either..

 

[wildling 35]

How hard did you guys look, from the first page on google:

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/phoebe-florian/wSeevVxmEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/softball-stats.htm

 

Looks really bad to be frank, a ton of errors and a .207 BA in her junior year in the softball powerhouse state of NC.

[OlderWhiskey 953]

I couldn't find anything from Ardrey Kell or the East Cobb Bullets, which I would have taken to be more representative.  Still, it's hard to see how she could have improved that much.  I hope coach knows something we don't.

[slot canyon 1,333]

33 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I couldn't find anything from Ardrey Kell or the East Cobb Bullets, which I would have taken to be more representative.  Still, it's hard to see how she could have improved that much.  I hope coach knows something we don't.

There is a bit of YOUTUBE stuff from June 2018.  Difficult to get any real impressions.  Surprised not mention on the AU Softball Twitter page.  Hope she is a diamond in the rough.  

[AU64 10,122]

56 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I couldn't find anything from Ardrey Kell or the East Cobb Bullets, which I would have taken to be more representative.  Still, it's hard to see how she could have improved that much.  I hope coach knows something we don't.

Don't think she played for AK last year....looks like she just relocated. NW Cabarrus was pretty poor but as noted, sister plays for Duke so maybe there is something in the genes. 

[OlderWhiskey 953]

Her sister attends Duke, but isn't listed on the Duke softball roster.

[AU64 10,122]

17 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Her sister attends Duke, but isn't listed on the Duke softball roster.

OK...just happened to see a picture of her from 16 or 17 in her duke uni...might be gone by now. 

Well...folks always talking about a "diamond in the rough"....this might be one of them....

[GBAU83 212]

On 2/7/2019 at 7:34 AM, slot canyon said:

No doubt hitting was our major deficiency last year. Hopefully that trend will see some reversal this season. Don't expect CMD to change his base stealing philosophy which he clearly stated when he arrived at AU last year. I looked at JMU stats his last two seasons there and in 2016 the SB/Attempts were 77/97 (79%). His last year there, 2017 season 76/93 (82%). Most of those were spread out between 5 players. Last year with new staff they were 33/48 (69%). In 2017 season (Myers) we were 28/32 (87.5%) Last season at AU 99/129 (77%) with Draper going 38/44. The next four contributors ( Fornis, Veach, Podany and McCrackin) combined had 33/44. Our opponents were 20/32 (63%). With Draper gone I expect a decline in attempted steals but still believe we see well above average attempts compared to most teams. If you have a team with hitting deficiencies and you get a reasonably "fast" runner on base I can see that you may try advance them with an attempted steal where chance of success appears to be around 70%. In the past, I would sometimes cringe when coach would send the runner but it may be a more reasonable pursuit than I thought. Also, that throw out at second is one of my favorite plays; except when the runner wears an Auburn uniform.

I would like to see the stats on Conference vs non-Conference.  IIRC we did really well on stealing in non-conference play.  I just hope CMD has learned catchers in the SEC are not the non-conference or JMU conference level players and may not be as good a risk to steal.  Of course, timing is critical, go on the off-speed or change up that might be in the dirt helps the runner and about the only time to run in the SEC.

[Rudyjax 4]

On 2/7/2019 at 8:55 PM, AU64 said:

OK...just happened to see a picture of her from 16 or 17 in her duke uni...might be gone by now. 

Well...folks always talking about a "diamond in the rough"....this might be one of them....

Her sister was in the inaugural signing class at Duke.  Not sure why she's no longer playing. Regarding Phoebe's stats last season, she was injured most of the year.   Through 12 games this season, she is hitting .455, 22 RBIs and 7 HRs.  She's 8 for 8 on SBA.  

[OlderWhiskey 953]

On 2/8/2019 at 1:00 PM, GBAU83 said:

I would like to see the stats on Conference vs non-Conference.  IIRC we did really well on stealing in non-conference play.  I just hope CMD has learned catchers in the SEC are not the non-conference or JMU conference level players and may not be as good a risk to steal.  Of course, timing is critical, go on the off-speed or change up that might be in the dirt helps the runner and about the only time to run in the SEC.

Looked it up.   We are 50 of 60 in non-conference, and 6 of 9 in conference.  So we're averaging one attempt per game in SEC, and just over 2 per game NC.  Opponents in SEC have attempted 3 steals, and been thrown out twice.  BA and homer numbers about equal with opponents in SEC.  Here's a link to the conference stats through 9 games.:

https://auburntigers.com/cumestats.aspx?path=softball

[Rudyjax 4]

 

On 4/3/2019 at 3:06 PM, wmsau said:

As to Phoebe Florian, I've attached here a couple of files with some updated stats which seem to be pretty impressive through 12 games of her senior season. Batting .455 and has hit 7 home runs to date. 

Phoebe Florian _ Ardrey Kell HS, Charlotte, NC _ MaxPreps.html 181.97 kB · 3 downloads Phoebe Florian's (Charlotte, NC) Softball Stats _ MaxPreps.html 146.27 kB · 4 downloads

I ‘m related to her and have followed her thru her mom all her life. I am biased for her. That being said, she had a concussion and a broken bone last year which lead to her poor stats. But other than that year, she’d been impressive all her life.