2019 Baseball Tournament Projections Thread

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-32019/

 

It's early, but the tigers projected to be in the exact same spot they were in last season. The best overall 2 seed playing at the 16 seed's regional host site, East Carolina. Paired up with #1 overall seed UCLA supers. 

Re-seeding needs to be discussed for after regional play. 

Also, I would riot if the season ended today, and East Carolina got a hosting bid over us. They are 15-6 with losses to Campbell, Monmouth, Air Force, and Wright State.

[AUpreacherman22 3,876]

We don’t have a “wow face” emoji or I would’ve used that.  

Weve been playing good ball lately, and when we get our 2 starting pitchers back from injury, watch out for the Auburn Tigers!!!!!

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-5119/

As of May 1st, Baseball America had us projected as a 2 seed in the East Carolina regional. This was before winning the series against Alabama. It's going to take winning these last two series, but an opportunity to host a regional is certainly still in front of this team. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-may-1/

 

Same thing from d1baseball. Probably going to get another projection here in the next few days. If Auburn takes care of business over UAB, I'd expect us to be in one of the lower host site seed regionals. 

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

Unless we go 4-2 against UGa and LSU or make a run to the SEC tournament finals, I don't see us being a regional 1...just too many better SEC teams that will be.

Edit:  Surely I read that wrong @tigerbrotha12...you're thinking we'll be at a non-top 8 regional as a #2 or #3, yes?  We've got to have two more conference wins at the very least.  That Georgia offense is going to score a bunch of runs and LSU might be looking to make a statement towards hosting.  This league is just freaking brutal.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

13 hours ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Unless we go 4-2 against UGa and LSU or make a run to the SEC tournament finals, I don't see us being a regional 1...just too many better SEC teams that will be.

Edit:  Surely I read that wrong @tigerbrotha12...you're thinking we'll be at a non-top 8 regional as a #2 or #3, yes?  We've got to have two more conference wins at the very least.  That Georgia offense is going to score a bunch of runs and LSU might be looking to make a statement towards hosting.  This league is just freaking brutal.

Sorry, that wasn't clear, I meant if we were to take care of business against UAB, we would then be projected to be in that spot. That was not me saying we will be there just by winning one more game this season over UAB. I agree, it will probably take a few more conference wins to put us there, although I do think a 13-17 SEC team makes the field again this season. The league is just to good to leave one of those teams out.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

2 seed in the Georgia Tech regional per this one as of 5/6/2019

 

 

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

3 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

2 seed in the Georgia Tech regional per this one as of 5/6/2019

I would take that today...Russ Chandler is as benign a place to play as anywhere in the country.  I have lived in Atlanta for 30 years and been to many regionals with the overriding thought being it's a lovely place to play...just lovely.  It was also my first road game as a bullpen catcher in the spring of 1984.  Coach Nix always had to have the pre-game meal at The Varsity.  

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

I guess it's because of the RPI, and the .500 record in the SEC, but even after last night's debacle against UAB, Baseball America still projects the Tigers as a pretty comfortable 2 seed in the East Carolina regional. 

RPI fell only one spot to 16 and we are only behind Texas A&M at 15th by 15 points, which is barely anything in terms of RPI. Maybe the SEC is just that good this year where they're going to really give it its respect come tournament time. The UAB loss sucked, but it's not necessarily an RPI killer or even a record killer, it just really hinders momentum. Maybe the guys can come out Friday with that game behind them and start to execute better. It will help we'll have our best guys on the mound. I would REALLY like to take 2 from UGA... but let's start with 1.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-5819/

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Got carried away and did my own. As of 5/8/2019:

1.) 1 UCLA, 2 Texas State, 3 Fresno State, 4 Norfolk State

2.) 1 Vandy, 2 FAU, 3 Samford, 4 Elon

3.) 1 Stanford, 2 BYU, 3 Wright State, 4 Nebraska-Omaha

4.) 1 Arkansas, 2 Illinois, 3 Houston, 4 Texas Rio Grande Valley

5.) 1 Louisville, 2 Auburn, 3 Central Michigan, 4 Stony Brook

6.) 1 Miss State, 2 Okla State, 3 Duke, 4 Jacksonville State

7.) 1 UGA, 2 Indiana, 3 Clemson, 4 Alabama State

8.) 1 ECU, 2 Indiana State, 3 West Virginia, 4 Quinnipac

9.) 1 Georgia Tech, 2 Tennessee, 3 VCU, 4 Campbell

10.) 1 Texas Tech, 2 TAMU, 3 Dallas Baptist, 4 Sam Houston State

11.) 1 North Carolina, 2 Michigan, 3 Liberty, 4 Harvard

12.) 1 Oregon State, 2 Creighton, 3 Illinois State, 4 New Mexico State

13.) 1 Miami, 2 Missouri, 3 UCONN, 4 Florida Gulf Coast

14.) 1 Ole Miss, 2 NC State, 3 Southern Miss, 4 Navy

15.) 1 UC Santa Barbara, 2 Arizona State, 3 Florida State, 4 Bryant

16.) 1 Baylor, 2 LSU, 3 California, 4 Miami (OH)

 

LAST FOUR IN: Duke, Liberty, Clemson, California

FIRST FOUR OUT: UC Irvine, La Tech, Iowa, Nebraska

 

Idk, I had fun. Lemme know what you think.

[boomstick 1,315]

D1Baseball has us as the 2 seed in the Atlanta Regional with host Ga Tech. 

[boomstick 1,315]

Somewhat related to this discussion. I charted out the success of SEC teams making regionals at 13-, 14-, and 15-win regular seasons since the start of the current regional format in 1999. 

13-win seasons: SEC teams are 11 of 26 in making regionals with a 13-17 or similar regular season record. When those teams have an RPI of 30 or less, those teams qualified for a regional 8 of the 10 times. Above 30 RPI? Just 3 of 16 times. 

14-win seasons: These teams made regionals 13 out of 19 times. RPI less than 30 is 12 of 13. The only time a team didn’t qualify for a regional with a 14-win record and a 30 or less RPI was in 2000. But if you’re RPI is over 30, only 1 team with 14 wins qualified in 9 opportunities. 

15-win season: Teams have qualified 20 of 26 times, and 15 out of 15 with an RPI less than 30. RPIsbetween 30-40 have gone 4 of 6. 

Basically, a strong RPI combined with a 14-16 record should get us into the tournament without much issue. 15-15 certainly gets us in because our RPI will likely improve if we get to 15 wins. 13 wins gets dicey because our RPI gets dangerously close to that 30 mark. LSU in 2011 was 13-17 with a 23 RPI and was left out. So, we need to win one in BR to feel safe.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

54 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Somewhat related to this discussion. I charted out the success of SEC teams making regionals at 13-, 14-, and 15-win regular seasons since the start of the current regional format in 1999. 

13-win seasons: SEC teams are 11 of 26 in making regionals with a 13-17 or similar regular season record. When those teams have an RPI of 30 or less, those teams qualified for a regional 8 of the 10 times. Above 30 RPI? Just 3 of 16 times. 

14-win seasons: These teams made regionals 13 out of 19 times. RPI less than 30 is 12 of 13. The only time a team didn’t qualify for a regional with a 14-win record and a 30 or less RPI was in 2000. But if you’re RPI is over 30, only 1 team with 14 wins qualified in 9 opportunities. 

15-win season: Teams have qualified 20 of 26 times, and 15 out of 15 with an RPI less than 30. RPIsbetween 30-40 have gone 4 of 6. 

Basically, a strong RPI combined with a 14-16 record should get us into the tournament without much issue. 15-15 certainly gets us in because our RPI will likely improve if we get to 15 wins. 13 wins gets dicey because our RPI gets dangerously close to that 30 mark. LSU in 2011 was 13-17 with a 23 RPI and was left out. So, we need to win one in BR to feel safe.

Thanks for the research, Boom. It looks like we’re kind of in a “4 games to win one” situation, in that I think if we were to get swept by LSU, we could still have the opportunity to win one in Hoover and probably get in. Not completely sure of that, but it seems like that would get us in, to me. As long as we take one of these remaining 4 SEC games that we for sure have scheduled, we should be in. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

According to Warren Nolan RPI, which I have found to be very good at keeping up with RPI, SOS, Quadrant records, and so forth...

We have the number 1 SOS in the country. 

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/rpi-live

The fact we've won 30 games is a nice little accomplishment for this team. Yes, it could be much higher if we had some hitters performing to their level they've displayed before, or if we weren't all banged up on the mound... but Auburn Baseball is on the right track. We will have been tested come regionals time, and I feel we've got three guys who have proven they can start and go deep into a game in Owen, Burns, and Fuller. It will take some guys stepping up, but certainly still a path to Omaha if this team gets hot...

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

According to Warren Nolan RPI, which I have found to be very good at keeping up with RPI, SOS, Quadrant records, and so forth...

We have the number 1 SOS in the country. 

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/rpi-live

The fact we've won 30 games is a nice little accomplishment for this team. Yes, it could be much higher if we had some hitters performing to their level they've displayed before, or if we weren't all banged up on the mound... but Auburn Baseball is on the right track. We will have been tested come regionals time, and I feel we've got three guys who have proven they can start and go deep into a game in Owen, Burns, and Fuller. It will take some guys stepping up, but certainly still a path to Omaha if this team gets hot...

Warren Nolan is also projecting us to finish with a 25 RPI, which would mean finishing with a win against UNA and one win at LSU. 

With that SOS, the record is solid. But I can’t help but think of 3-4 games we coulda/woulda/shoulda won with a timely hit or a shutdown inning or two from the bullpen. The slugfest at Miss St in game 3, the extra inning loss against Arkansas where we stranded runners all night in the late innings with the game tied and Williams tripping over third going in as the winning run, dropping the double play in the second game with Bama, not finding a base hit with bases loaded three times late against Vandy in that game two, maybe a pitching change to preserve a tie against UGA. With a few breaks and a few hits and 3-4 better pitching innings, we could be 16-11 or 17-10. Crazy to think considering the schedule we’ve played. 

[mustache eagle 2,388]

That arky game is the one that really sticks out to me.  I’m not even gonna blink at the sweep at vandy.  That team is unreal.

the pitchers in this league!  Miss st, vandy ... the monsters from Georgia this last weekend ... does any staff in the country have that velocity?!

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Auburn down to a 3 seed in Miami. 

Interesting to me that Baseball America was projecting Auburn as a 2 seed last week, then Auburn takes a game from Georgia and wins their midweeker, and they drop to a 3 seed. I agree Auburn should probably be a 3 seed, but not sure I agree they should have dropped down there after this week if they were being projected as a 2 seed before hand. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-51519/

[AUBwins 10,064]

2 vs 3 really just makes a difference in determining host location in Supers if the seeded teams don't advance, I believe.  Might actually end up in a better spot as a strong 3 compared to a weak 2. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-may-15/

D1 Baseball with Auburn as a 2 seed in the Corvallis regional as of May 15th, one day before the LSU series begins. 

 

Tigers seem to be teetering on that 2 seed, 3 seed line. Good showing in LSU will likely put the Tigers as a pretty comfortable 2 seed. Need the guys to step up to their potential this weekend.