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North Carolina Scouting Report

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Hope he coughs on everybody on the team and they all drink out of his Gatorade bottle and are all sick tomorrow night. I'm not too proud to win a game due to them only having walk-on's available. 

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2 hours ago, tgrogan21 said:

Hope he coughs on everybody on the team and they all drink out of his Gatorade bottle and are all sick tomorrow night. I'm not too proud to win a game due to them only having walk-on's available. 

Yep....we have Wiley playing on a leg and a half and nobody out there feeling sorry for us or making excuses on our behalf.       

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Not too worried about their players. Just hope he doesn't pass on what he has to our players. 

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Laughs at a defensive backfield football coach in Texas being asked for an opinion on a college basketball game.

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4 minutes ago, Gene Loblaw said:

Ugh. Don’t need the bra-less Chief Goob jynxing our b-ball squad 

Don't mind the thought at all but he just doesn't sound inspiring in the least. Flip the scenario and I guarantee Bruce would have been on fire. I know they have different personalities but if you can't pull it off then don't do it. I'm not hating on Gus either, just the delivery of the message. 

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20 minutes ago, Gene Loblaw said:

Ugh. Don’t need the bra-less Chief Goob jynxing our b-ball squad 

Still a great gesture, from one friend to another.

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If we win, I suggest we have a player make the next good luck message with the whole team in the background.   From the practice field.   Someone like Smoke Monday, or TD Moultry, maybe a team captain. 

Nice sentiment, not inspiring.    Sounded like he was sleep walking.  

Edited by Beaker
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7 hours ago, Beaker said:

If we win, I suggest we have a player make the next good luck message with the whole team in the background.   From the practice field.   Someone like Smoke Monday, or TD Moultry, maybe a team captain. 

Nice sentiment, not inspiring.    Sounded like he was sleep walking.  

Or TWill.

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Our former coach was quite the 3pt shooter at UNC................also understand that Montross is out for tonights game...............😁

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Alright gents, it's gameday and I have a little time to share some thoughts. First, I just want to convey how dang exciting it is to still be routing on our guys in the sweet sixteen. We are playing our best ball at the right time, how far has this team come since mid-way of the SEC season. So I've been fortunate to get a few things right in some of these previews, but this one is less about stats, and more about which team mentally stays engaged through the ups and downs of the game.  I would expect both teams to make some runs, and how each reacts will go a long way to determining who wins. That said lets look at some specific spots: 

I've watched UNC play several games and you pretty much find their stats reflect what you see on the floor. Fast paced, outstanding at rebounding, but also shows some cracks (as with all teams) . There is good news and bad news after reviewing some stats. Let's start with the bad news. Some of the areas that are our weakest, are strengths for them (unlike Kansas). Rebounding is the primary area of concern, specifically their offensive rebounding. They average  11.5 (#9) rebounds per game, and we allow 9.0 (#246) Opp Off Rebounds/Gm. We are outside the top 200 and they are elite at 9th. We have to limit this to give ourselves the best chance to win. They have a few other areas where they are elite, but where we aren't particularly weak. Nonetheless, these should be areas of concern, they average almost 19 assists per game which is good for #2 in the country, they also score a lot of points at 86 per game good for #3 nationally, due to their pace and offensive rebounding they are #2 in the country at shot attempts per game at 67. So that's most of the bad news. The rebounding is obvious, they are big athletic and crash the boards, it will take a huge effort on our part to limit them. The assists show that they share the ball, a lot of drive and kick action. We are actually not too bad in this area as we scramble and switch a lot. Ball pressure will be key in this one to limit their assists. The shot attempts are a product of the rebounding, and points a product of the assists and attempts.

Now for some good news. They are actually pretty bad at a few things. They don't get to the line as much as you would expect for a penetrating team and they also turn the ball over 13+ times per game, but due to their pace it only translates to a 20% rate (which isn't that bad). As far as offense goes that is the extent of the good news. Defensively however, they have some holes. They allow a lot of assists, ranking outside the top 200 in assists per game and assists to field goals made. They rank outside the top 300 in field goal attempts allowed and three point attempts allowed, and also outside the top 300 in opp three point shots made per game. All areas of strength for us. One other area I found quite interesting is they get their shots blocked more often than I would have guessed. They get blocked almost 5 times a game, which is 348th in the nation, and we block nearly the same amount, which ranks 26th. This highlights why they often kick on drives. Now their kicks aren't always out to the three point line, but rather to another guy slashing to the rim. Another area of weakness is the give up a lot of steals, and we are good in this department. 

So how do we win? Sure if we shoot the lights out that helps, but I think this game is more about which team's weakness doesn't get exploited most. For us it is getting off good three point looks. For them it is crashing the boards on both ends, getting second looks on offense and getting out in transition from a defensive board. We limit their defensive rebounding by making shots, we will get more open looks with an extra pass against UNC. I would actually look for us to do some back cuts early to combat an aggressive perimeter defense. Dunbar and Doughty will need to rebound today if we are to have a chance to win his one. We also need to turn them over, and I think we will. They have freshman ball handlers, who are very good, but are still freshman and turnover prone. That I why I think the rebounding issue will be harder. One thing we may do is send everyone to the boards on defense, which may lead to less run outs, but better rebounding. 

Their average game beats our average game, so we obviously need to play well. Who's weakness hurts them the most, that's who loses this game. Rebound, rebound, rebound!. 

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4 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Alright gents, it's gameday and I have a little time to share some thoughts. First, I just want to convey how dang exciting it is to still be routing on our guys in the sweet sixteen. We are playing our best ball at the right time, how far has this team come since mid-way of the SEC season. So I've been fortunate to get a few things right in some of these previews, but this one is less about stats, and more about which team mentally stays engaged through the ups and downs of the game.  I would expect both teams to make some runs, and how each reacts will go a long way to determining who wins. That said lets look at some specific spots: 

I've watched UNC play several games and you pretty much find their stats reflect what you see on the floor. Fast paced, outstanding at rebounding, but also shows some cracks (as with all teams) . There is good news and bad news after reviewing some stats. Let's start with the bad news. Some of the areas that are our weakest, are strengths for them (unlike Kansas). Rebounding is the primary area of concern, specifically their offensive rebounding. They average  11.5 (#9) rebounds per game, and we allow 9.0 (#246) Opp Off Rebounds/Gm. We are outside the top 200 and they are elite at 9th. We have to limit this to give ourselves the best chance to win. They have a few other areas where they are elite, but where we aren't particularly weak. Nonetheless, these should be areas of concern, they average almost 19 assists per game which is good for #2 in the country, they also score a lot of points at 86 per game good for #3 nationally, due to their pace and offensive rebounding they are #2 in the country at shot attempts per game at 67. So that's most of the bad news. The rebounding is obvious, they are big athletic and crash the boards, it will take a huge effort on our part to limit them. The assists show that they share the ball, a lot of drive and kick action. We are actually not too bad in this area as we scramble and switch a lot. Ball pressure will be key in this one to limit their assists. The shot attempts are a product of the rebounding, and points a product of the assists and attempts.

Now for some good news. They are actually pretty bad at a few things. They don't get to the line as much as you would expect for a penetrating team and they also turn the ball over 13+ times per game, but due to their pace it only translates to a 20% rate (which isn't that bad). As far as offense goes that is the extent of the good news. Defensively however, they have some holes. They allow a lot of assists, ranking outside the top 200 in assists per game and assists to field goals made. They rank outside the top 300 in field goal attempts allowed and three point attempts allowed, and also outside the top 300 in opp three point shots made per game. All areas of strength for us. One other area I found quite interesting is they get their shots blocked more often than I would have guessed. They get blocked almost 5 times a game, which is 348th in the nation, and we block nearly the same amount, which ranks 26th. This highlights why they often kick on drives. Now their kicks aren't always out to the three point line, but rather to another guy slashing to the rim. Another area of weakness is the give up a lot of steals, and we are good in this department. 

So how do we win? Sure if we shoot the lights out that helps, but I think this game is more about which team's weakness doesn't get exploited most. For us it is getting off good three point looks. For them it is crashing the boards on both ends, getting second looks on offense and getting out in transition from a defensive board. We limit their defensive rebounding by making shots, we will get more open looks with an extra pass against UNC. I would actually look for us to do some back cuts early to combat an aggressive perimeter defense. Dunbar and Doughty will need to rebound today if we are to have a chance to win his one. We also need to turn them over, and I think we will. They have freshman ball handlers, who are very good, but are still freshman and turnover prone. That I why I think the rebounding issue will be harder. One thing we may do is send everyone to the boards on defense, which may lead to less run outs, but better rebounding. 

Their average game beats our average game, so we obviously need to play well. Who's weakness hurts them the most, that's who loses this game. Rebound, rebound, rebound!. 

Yeah, if we win were going to have to out rebound them.

Edited by NickFairleyFan90

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2 minutes ago, NickFairleyFan90 said:

 

Yeah, if we win were going to have to out rebound them.

not out-rebound, just keep it close. I'd say keep it to 6-8 in their favor and under 10 offensive rebounds. 

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I'm hearing around here in NC that Nasir Little is most likely going to play but there's a rumor going around that Cam Johnson is now sick -- although unlikely to keep him out. TIFWIW

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19 minutes ago, Tiger said:

I'm hearing around here in NC that Nasir Little is most likely going to play but there's a rumor going around that Cam Johnson is now sick -- although unlikely to keep him out. TIFWIW

Please update as you hear. Not getting much info down here..WDE!!

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We need to run run run ... we need to drive to the basket.  They only play 7 or 8 guys?  2 of them are either sick or recovering?  We need to foul out one of their guys and run the rest into the ground.

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3 hours ago, Tiger said:

I'm hearing around here in NC that Nasir Little is most likely going to play but there's a rumor going around that Cam Johnson is now sick -- although unlikely to keep him out. TIFWIW

Playing or not, neither should be at 100% . Any advantage helps. 

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