Stats to consider - AU vs UVA

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

I'll preface this by saying I've never been a fan of the way "experts" use season-long stats to explain to us why a certain team has an advantage in one single NCAA tourney game.  So let's look at the stats selectively.  Here are some stats to consider from NCAA Tourney games only... 

UVA - Opponent 3pt%

One stat I've heard over and over is how good UVA is at holding opponents to a low 3pt%.  For the season, UVA has held opponents to around 29% from 3pt range.  So let's look at NCAA tourney stats only...

vs. Gardner-Webb (39%)
vs. Oklahoma (36%)
vs. Oregon (36%)
vs. Purdue (44%)
Average = 39% (+10%)

Every single team UVA has played in the tourney has shot above their average 3pt% for the season...some by a good margin.  If AU shoots their average number of 3pt attempts and makes the same average % of the teams above, that is 11-12 three pointers made.  

UVA - 3pt%

UVA is also getting a lot of love for their accuracy from 3pt range.  For the season, they shoot 39% from three.  However, for the tourney they are shooting 30%.  Conversely, Auburn is shooting 41% for the tourney.  

UVA - FT% and Turnovers

To give UVA credit, their FT% has improved during tourney play and turnovers per game has improved.  AU does not want to get in foul trouble and give them easy points from the line.  UVA averages 9 TO's/game for the season and only 6 in the tournament.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if AU forces 10+ against this team.  Kudos to them, they don't beat themselves.  

UVA - Offensive Rebounding

UVA does not have a significant advantage in rebounding as a whole.  However, UVA has killed it on the offensive glass this tourney.  They had 17 offensive rebounds against Purdue.  AU cannot win if they allow them to get a lot of extra possessions.  

To summarize, even though UVA has made it to the Final Four, they are underachieving statistically compared to the regular season.  They are allowing an absurd % from 3pt range, which plays to AU's main strength on O.  Even if you take Carson Edwards out of the equation, they are still giving up a high clip.  On the other end of the court, they are shooting 9% lower themselves from 3 point range.  Conversely, Auburn is overachieving in these areas.

During the tourney:

UVA 3pt% - 30%
AU 3pt% - 41%

UVA Opp 3pt% - 39%
AU Opp 3pt% - 27%

Anything can happen, but these stats do not lead me to believe UVA will have their way with Auburn.  The regular season doesn't matter.  All that matters is how you are playing right now.  

 

[slipadeedoodah 24]

There’s not a bad win on that list. Especially considering Purdue beat Tennessee, a team that took us to the wire at home not so long ago.

It makes sense that a pack line defense would give up a lot of 3s. The fact that they were 3rd in the nation in defending them was bizarre. The Virginia defense is inherently designed to compete in the ACC, where size and athleticism are still king.

Its an old school philosophy that assumes that shooting 3s is a last resort for teams that can’t score in the paint, and the ACC seems to still live by those rules to a certain extent.

Times are changing, but Virginia is still an ELITE  college team in 2019. After a week of scouting our team, it would shock me to no end if Virginia lets us shoot open 3s.

[AURex 1,984]

The packline defense is specifically designed to keep opponents out of the paint, but is less effective against teams that are comfortable shooting from outside -- especially if they have multiple players who can shoot 3s with success.

To UVA's credit, they've continued to win games even when giving up more 3s, even when not shooting so well themselves. They are very well coached and they play their slowball style extremely well. Playing UVA is kinda like playing Syracuse -- if you are encountering it for the first time, it can be a confusing and frustrating experience, as it forces you to play much differently than you normally would. It's going to be hard for Harper to drive inside the way he has been doing in other games. And his outside shooting has dropped off, which is a concern.

I'm not much convinced that stats tell us much for this game. One team is going to exert its will on the other. I'm more concerned about the health of Auburn's players, since both Brown and Harper have been under the weather the past couple of days.

 

[WarTiger 3,896]

First thing to consider when reading stuff like this is none of it matters.  The 2nd thing to remember is there are no "experts".  Those are people with only opinions and those opinions don't matter any more than anybody else.  They (for whatever reason) just get paid to voice their opinion.

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

I think how a team has been playing recently does matter, especially in this game and how the matchup has been framed.  That was my point.  You can't throw stats completely out the window.  Can they predict an outcome?  No.  Can they give us a bit of a litmus test for teams?  Yes.  Some extra context?  Yes.

UVA is underwhelming (yet winning) in the tourney and AU is overwhelming compared to the regular season.  It's now past an outlier, it's a trend for both teams.  I believe it makes the matchup fairly even.  We are a better shooting team right now than UVA.  Our D has also stepped up quite dramatically.  UVA is more fundamentally sound and a better FT shooting team.  Should be a great match-up.  

[westy 4]

All true.  AU has been playing at its highest level in the past five games.  On the Torvik site (similar to kenpom) AU's last five games get a game score/grade of 100, 90, 100, 99, 97.

UVA has not yet played its absolute best ball recently.  Last five games graded at 68, 90, 99, 93, 97.

So both teams played at the same level (97) in the last game.   

So is AU going to be able to keep it up at that level or will they start to come down to earth?  Will UVA keep trending up?  

[westy 4]

"It makes sense that a pack line defense would give up a lot of 3s."

This I disagree with. 

UVA is #3 in the country this year defending 3s.  #9 in 2018.  #29 in 2017. 

Teams can shoot a high 3 percentage against UVA over short stretches -- like Purdue did (14-32).  Like Duke did @ UVA (13-21).  Like UMBC did last year (12-24). 

If you can do that, you'll almost always beat UVA.  But it really just doesn't happen very often. 

[bigbird 60,368]

1 hour ago, westy said:

Teams can shoot a high 3 percentage against UVA over short stretches --

Hopefully 40 minutes is short enough

[1auburn1 1,110]

13 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Hopefully 40 minutes is short enough

Coach PFD would approve that statement. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

The Purdue 3s that we’re made were some of the toughest I’ve seen over the span of a college game. Two hands in face, 8 feet behind the 3 line, all game just about. Their defense is worse than usual but how often have teams gotten anything from the paint? Their offense also looks better than it usually does. We’re not gonna get many “good” looks essentially, at least not in the half court