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Espn predictor for playoffs


BJCrawford

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http://africa.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26539077/college-football-playoff-predictor-michigan-makes-top-four

scary thing about this is not the measly 7% chance, it’s that we have to play FIVE of the teams with better chances. Guess that’s why we are 7%.

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Well, we played both Clemson and Oregon in 2010, maybe just the reverse order this season...

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17 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Didn’t know where to post this, but does anyone know how Oregon looked in their spring game? 

Nvm. Just realized it’s this Saturday 

That ESPN ranking indicates they expect a lot from them. Put em on our schedule and they rise to the top (see Clemson😬)

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Looks like a duplicate from last year about this time.  Michigan, Penn State, and Moo State don’t make a whole lot of sense to me.  Everything else looks about right.

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8 hours ago, BJCrawford said:

http://africa.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26539077/college-football-playoff-predictor-michigan-makes-top-four

scary thing about this is not the measly 7% chance, it’s that we have to play FIVE of the teams with better chances. Guess that’s why we are 7%.

SF8MzIP.gif

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10 hours ago, bigbird said:

...every year

We've played 8 of the 20 CFP participants, and at least one every year of its 5 year existence. 

We've played both national title game participants twice in the last 3 years, and at least one of them each of the last 4 years. 

 

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21 hours ago, BJCrawford said:

http://africa.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26539077/college-football-playoff-predictor-michigan-makes-top-four

scary thing about this is not the measly 7% chance, it’s that we have to play FIVE of the teams with better chances. Guess that’s why we are 7%.

Right now I will settle for a 6-6 or 7-6 record not even considering playoffs.

Coaching staff is suspect.  Dillingham is not qualified to be OC. 

ADay not informative as not much can be gleaned from 1s beating 2s.

A few observations from ADay of concern:

1. Secondary does not have good technique and bite on double moves.

2.  Auburn doesnt use clearing routes for short and immediate routes over the middle.

3.  Gus assuming playcalling.  He gave up the duties in 2015 for a reason and no reliable backup to assume playcalling. 

With these weaknesses, 7% chance of making the playoffs is high

 

 

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1 hour ago, James Howell said:

Right now I will settle for a 6-6 or 7-6 record not even considering playoffs.

Coaching staff is suspect.  Dillingham is not qualified to be OC. 

ADay not informative as not much can be gleaned from 1s beating 2s.

A few observations from ADay of concern:

1. Secondary does not have good technique and bite on double moves.

2.  Auburn doesnt use clearing routes for short and immediate routes over the middle.

3.  Gus assuming playcalling.  He gave up the duties in 2015 for a reason and no reliable backup to assume playcalling. 

With these weaknesses, 7% chance of making the playoffs is high

 

 

I’m not savvy enough to respond to most of this but the one thing I thought malzahn WAS good at was the play calling. At the time, wasn’t the criticism more that he needed to be a head coach and do something about the defense and this is why he gave up play calling? I guess I think his move to assume play calling may be the only thing that may save his job (or lose it if his mojo is truly gone).

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13 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

I’m not savvy enough to respond to most of this but the one thing I thought malzahn WAS good at was the play calling. At the time, wasn’t the criticism more that he needed to be a head coach and do something about the defense and this is why he gave up play calling? I guess I think his move to assume play calling may be the only thing that may save his job (or lose it if his mojo is truly gone).

From my observation and from other on this board concerns noted when gus was playcalling was no duguising the play.  In other words we ran certain plays from certain formations and the defense knew the plays by formation.  2.  90 to 95percent  of our passing game back then was the bubble screen hardly any of short or immediate passing routes.  In other words gus was very predictable in his play calling.  And 2019 will be like 2015 if he has to pass the play calling duties over there is not anyone with sufficient experience to assume that duty.

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14 minutes ago, James Howell said:

From my observation and from other on this board concerns noted when gus was playcalling was no duguising the play.  In other words we ran certain plays from certain formations and the defense knew the plays by formation.  2.  90 to 95percent  of our passing game back then was the bubble screen hardly any of short or immediate passing routes.  In other words gus was very predictable in his play calling.  And 2019 will be like 2015 if he has to pass the play calling duties over there is not anyone with sufficient experience to assume that duty.

I doubt theres any swapping of play calling duties this year.  He chose to take it back over and to hire Dilly.  Think its ride or die, sink or swim this year with him calling plays.

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47 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

I’m not savvy enough to respond to most of this but the one thing I thought malzahn WAS good at was the play calling. At the time, wasn’t the criticism more that he needed to be a head coach and do something about the defense and this is why he gave up play calling? I guess I think his move to assume play calling may be the only thing that may save his job (or lose it if his mojo is truly gone).

He gave up playcalling because it was apparent he didn't have the juice anymore to be the rockstar OC/playcaller that he was when he could afford to spend every moment of his job preparing for and studying opposing defenses. With the bevy of responsibilities that were added on to his plate as a HC his value as an OC went into the tank -- commentators, fans, and opposing coaches knew exactly what we were running based on personnel and formation as Gus felt like he needed utopian personnel groupings to mitigate the lack of time he could put into being the playcaller he once was -- which of course made us more predictable.

Him giving up play calling duties had more to do with our offensive struggles than our defense needing work.

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2 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Gus felt like he needed utopian personnel groupings to mitigate the lack of time he could put into being the playcaller he once was

I see you, tryin' to steal @DAG's logic crown.

DAG, he's using some pretty fancy words. YOUR MOVE

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1 hour ago, James Howell said:

Right now I will settle for a 6-6 or 7-6 record not even considering playoffs.

Coaching staff is suspect.  Dillingham is not qualified to be OC. 

ADay not informative as not much can be gleaned from 1s beating 2s.

A few observations from ADay of concern:

1. Secondary does not have good technique and bite on double moves.

2.  Auburn doesnt use clearing routes for short and immediate routes over the middle.

3.  Gus assuming playcalling.  He gave up the duties in 2015 for a reason and no reliable backup to assume playcalling. 

With these weaknesses, 7% chance of making the playoffs is high

 

 

Um. We should NOT “settle.” Expect, maybe. But 6-7 wins fully warrants a coaching change.

Still, I’d like to remind people that we’ve beaten every OOC regular season opponent aside from Clemson since Chizik took over. It’s hard for me to be too scared of Oregon when Washington received the exact same accolades last spring and summer.

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And to add...this is JMO so TIFWIW:

Problem is, now that he's back to OC there will likely be team-wide strategy deficiencies popping up once again like poor clock management, poor usage of timeouts, and other weird things like not recognizing it would be smart to put a returner back there for the Kick 6 (Thank you Ellis Johnson for pointing this out) or having two players wear the same number on a play (defending the Hail Mary vs South Carolina in 2014 when Duke Williams and Montravious Adams on the field at the same time) etc...I mean those are remedial level tactical errors and thankfully they didn't burn us at the time but the window is open for something like that to catch up to us.

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7 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

LSU at 32% to make the playoff? No way. They are going to take a step back this year IMO.

Bet we still lose to them somehow lol

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2 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I see you, tryin' to steal @DAG's logic crown.

DAG, he's using some pretty fancy words. YOUR MOVE

me after using the word "bevy":

giphy.gif

 

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7 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

LSU at 32% to make the playoff? No way. They are going to take a step back this year IMO.

What makes you say that? I normally would find such a claim absurd but given how accurate you were last year, even after we had beaten Washington, I do take your predictions very seriously.

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19 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I see you, tryin' to steal @DAG's logic crown.

DAG, he's using some pretty fancy words. YOUR MOVE

giphy.gif

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2 hours ago, James Howell said:

Right now I will settle for a 6-6 or 7-6 record not even considering playoffs.

Coaching staff is suspect.  Dillingham is not qualified to be OC. 

ADay not informative as not much can be gleaned from 1s beating 2s.

A few observations from ADay of concern:

1. Secondary does not have good technique and bite on double moves.

2.  Auburn doesnt use clearing routes for short and immediate routes over the middle.

3.  Gus assuming playcalling.  He gave up the duties in 2015 for a reason and no reliable backup to assume playcalling. 

With these weaknesses, 7% chance of making the playoffs is high

 

 

2

giphy.gif

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34 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Um. We should NOT “settle.” Expect, maybe. But 6-7 wins fully warrants a coaching change.

Still, I’d like to remind people that we’ve beaten every OOC regular season opponent aside from Clemson since Chizik took over. It’s hard for me to be too scared of Oregon when Washington received the exact same accolades last spring and summer.

I got a feeling that Oregon is about to run into a buzzsaw. The rest of the season may be different, but I just feel like we are going to stomp a mud hole in Oregon. 

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45 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Um. We should NOT “settle.” Expect, maybe. But 6-7 wins fully warrants a coaching change.

Still, I’d like to remind people that we’ve beaten every OOC regular season opponent aside from Clemson since Chizik took over. It’s hard for me to be too scared of Oregon when Washington received the exact same accolades last spring and summer.

You are right I selected poor wording when I said settle. I should have said expected instead of settle.  And I agree that record such as that get a coach fired.  However, I dont have any confidence of anyone within the athletic department being able to select a new head coach.

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