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AUght2win

Oregon Game will be big Crapshoot

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22 hours ago, AUght2win said:

This could be a typical Auburn-bull market year with an outta nowhere 11-1, or it could be Malzahn's excruciating 5-7 demise.

FIFY

We play in Baton Rouge. With all the talent we have had this century, we havent won there since the 90s.

Much like the OL, Gus/Auburn will have to show me he can win at LSU. Its been almost 20 years since we have won there.

But i agree with your point overall. We could make a CFP run OR we could finish with a losing record. Its entirely unknown. 

Edited by Auburn2Eugene
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I watched one Oregon game last year and that was the bowl game vs Michigan State.  The game was just bad overall and honestly pretty hard to watch. Small sample size obviously, but I couldn't believe their QB would have been the #1 QB off the draft board this year. He was horrible under pressure, went 19-33 for 166.  Threw a TD in Q4 to win 7-6.  (He was projected #1 before bowl games and Kyler declared.)

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16 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

2020 will be a different story, but just because we're having some trouble with depth and recruiting on the offensive line doesn't mean we are in a world of hurt at the current moment. 

Let Tega...or for that matter Driscoll get injured. Then that "world of hurt" you speak of WILL be the CURRENT moment. 

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22 hours ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Anyone with a brain saw that we were over hyped last preseason. 

Easy to say with hindsight. Stidham ended 2017 looking like a 1st round pick. Had all his receivers back. We had just beaten the two teams who would play for the national title. 

Nobody thought Auburn would be less than a 9-10 win team. Hence unanimous top 10 preseason rankings and outrage (to the point of wanting to can a guy) for a 7 win regular season. 

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19 hours ago, AuburnEagle79 said:

I think whether we go 12-0 or 6-6 is a crapshoot, but I don't think the Oregon game is. We are bigger, faster, and stronger. The Pac-12 is a joke and a half. We should win regardless of how we do this season.

Oregon is also a crapshoot though. Potentially #1 overall pick returning to play QB. High powered offense. Great recruiting. A lot of momentum. Most all polls have them somewhere between 9-13 to start the year. 

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7 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

IMO, not sure how much this game will tell us about AU leading into SEC play. I'm not football coach but the ones I know say the Duck's D is going to be awful. Real bad.

But their O is going to be one of the best in the nation. Our defense could play lights-out and still allow 20+. Will we have enough offense to get by? 

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7 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

AU was a preseason top 10 team with a TON of returning players. Gus and his staff blew it. Lot's of talent on this years team for sure. Safety, CB and OL play are going to be the weak points. LBers are young but the DL will help them big time. No excuse for what happened last year. None. That team should have made a big run and won at least 11 games.

WDE you're pretty plugged in, correct? Are the coaches worried about the secondary? That surprises me. Javaris is one of the best CBs I have seen in a while, Dinson is a great player (particularly a great tackler), Iggy has been praised as having outta this world potential and taking next step, Thomas, Monday both had great seasons last year. Sherwood looked great in spots too. What's the cause for concern back there? Thought secondary would be a strength. 

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19 hours ago, bigbird said:

After our 2nd, I loaded the blanks myself

Any powder burns???  (lol) 😫

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The schedule is going to be tough. But looking at it, I actually think it's doable because we don't face any really talented teams back-to-back. 

Oregon - then 2 patsies.

at TAMU - but then a breather at home vs. Miss State.

at Florida - but then a bye, followed by road trip to Arky.

at LSU - then home versus Ole Miss, then another bye.

UGA - then Samford.

Bama.

The tale of the tape is going to be October. We have no home games in October, which is crazy if you think about it. Has that ever happened in the history of Auburn football? If we can survive that, we have no away games in November. Those 6 big games, if we can put our best into them, and scrape by the lesser opponents, we could have a good year. 

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32 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Easy to say with hindsight. Stidham ended 2017 looking like a 1st round pick. Had all his receivers back. We had just beaten the two teams who would play for the national title. 

Nobody thought Auburn would be less than a 9-10 win team. Hence unanimous top 10 preseason rankings and outrage (to the point of wanting to can a guy) for a 7 win regular season. 

No one EVER thinks Auburn will be less than a 9-10 win team because honestly, Auburn should rarely if ever fall below that threshold.  A 9 win regular season's not too much to ask for from a program of AU's caliber.  Especially with the constant coaching carousel the SEC has been on the last 5 yrs. 

My Lord, when I look back after the wake of the 2013 championship game  don't know why Auburn couldn't put their foot on the throat every SEC opponent not named Bama since that '13 season?   Many teams were ripe for the picking, UGA/LSU/MSU specifically, instead it's felt like Auburn's been spinning their wheels and not gaining a lot of traction with a ton of quality talent.

Edited by keesler
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56 minutes ago, keesler said:

No one EVER thinks Auburn will be less than a 9-10 win team because honestly, Auburn should rarely if ever fall below that threshold.  A 9 win regular season's not too much to ask for from a program of AU's caliber.  Especially with the constant coaching carousel the SEC has been on the last 5 yrs. 

My Lord, when I look back after the wake of the 2013 championship game  don't know why Auburn couldn't put their foot on the throat every SEC opponent not named Bama since that '13 season?   Many teams were ripe for the picking, UGA/LSU/MSU specifically, instead it's felt like Auburn's been spinning their wheels and not gaining a lot of traction with a ton of quality talent.

Any time you are ranked below #15 in preseason, you are expected to be in about the 8 win range. Top 5: 11-13 wins, 6 thru 15: 9-11 wins. 15-25: 8-9 wins. From what I gather about our history, we usually start the season in the 15-25 range. The last 20 years we have taken the next step and been consistently in preseason Top 10s. Most of those seasons ended in disaster - '03, '08, '14, '15, '18. 

The only season in recent memory that we started top 10 and finishes top 10 was 2006. Like you, I long for the day when Auburn finally grabs a hold of consistent relevance and hangs on.

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1 hour ago, AUght2win said:

The schedule is going to be tough. But looking at it, I actually think it's doable because we don't face any really talented teams back-to-back. 

Oregon - then 2 patsies.

at TAMU - but then a breather at home vs. Miss State.

at Florida - but then a bye, followed by road trip to Arky.

at LSU - then home versus Ole Miss, then another bye.

UGA - then Samford.

Bama.

The tale of the tape is going to be October. We have no home games in October, which is crazy if you think about it. Has that ever happened in the history of Auburn football? If we can survive that, we have no away games in November. Those 6 big games, if we can put our best into them, and scrape by the lesser opponents, we could have a good year. 

Isnt Gus undefeated after a buy week?

If so, history suggests we will beat UGA

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4 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

Let Tega...or for that matter Driscoll get injured. Then that "world of hurt" you speak of WILL be the CURRENT moment. 

I know that im quoting myself, but oh well. This needs to be said...

That being said, i dont think people realize just how razor thin we are as far as serviceable OTs. I know ive been tough on Driscoll, but if anything happens to either of them especially with Trox going down again, we will be in a tight spot. We have absolutely no problem with interior depth. They are young and untested, but we have sufficient depth across the middle. But the OTs are an ENTIRELY different story. 

Its scary how thin we are at OT. If either Tega or Driscoll go down we have a 5th year senior who has never taken meaningful snaps, a 4th year guy (i think) in prince sammons who has never taken a meaningful snap, who is really a DT (he was recruited almost exclusively as a DT by other schools,) and another converted DT im Alec Jackson. The other "OTs" on the roster are super young "tweeners" who many saw as OGs and not OTs at the college level. We are set for OGs and Cs to go down... But OT is a vastly different story

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55 minutes ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

I know that im quoting myself, but oh well. This needs to be said...

That being said, i dont think people realize just how razor thin we are as far as serviceable OTs. I know ive been tough on Driscoll, but if anything happens to either of them especially with Trox going down again, we will be in a tight spot. We have absolutely no problem with interior depth. They are young and untested, but we have sufficient depth across the middle. But the OTs are an ENTIRELY different story. 

Its scary how thin we are at OT. If either Tega or Driscoll go down we have a 5th year senior who has never taken meaningful snaps, a 4th year guy (i think) in prince sammons who has never taken a meaningful snap, who is really a DT (he was recruited almost exclusively as a DT by other schools,) and another converted DT im Alec Jackson. The other "OTs" on the roster are super young "tweeners" who many saw as OGs and not OTs at the college level. We are set for OGs and Cs to go down... But OT is a vastly different story

tenor.gif

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5 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

I know that im quoting myself, but oh well. This needs to be said...

That being said, i dont think people realize just how razor thin we are as far as serviceable OTs. I know ive been tough on Driscoll, but if anything happens to either of them especially with Trox going down again, we will be in a tight spot. We have absolutely no problem with interior depth. They are young and untested, but we have sufficient depth across the middle. But the OTs are an ENTIRELY different story. 

Its scary how thin we are at OT. If either Tega or Driscoll go down we have a 5th year senior who has never taken meaningful snaps, a 4th year guy (i think) in prince sammons who has never taken a meaningful snap, who is really a DT (he was recruited almost exclusively as a DT by other schools,) and another converted DT im Alec Jackson. The other "OTs" on the roster are super young "tweeners" who many saw as OGs and not OTs at the college level. We are set for OGs and Cs to go down... But OT is a vastly different story

No worries here! We have depth! And, it’s only May! 

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9 hours ago, fredst said:

No worries here! We have depth! And, it’s only May! 

No offense but, how did you arrive at "we have depth" based on Eugene's post?

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4 minutes ago, selias said:

No offense but, how did you arrive at "we have depth" based on Eugene's post?

Sarcasm. Running joke. Mikey has been claiming for awhile that we have plenty of depth on the OL.

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19 minutes ago, McLoofus said:
25 minutes ago, selias said:

No offense but, how did you arrive at "we have depth" based on Eugene's post?

Sarcasm. Running joke. Mikey has been claiming for awhile that we have plenty of depth on the OL.

What ‘Loof said

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This is a game I don't think we should win. I don't see us embarrassing ourselves but Oregon should be considered the favorite in this one. They have all but 4 returning starters and returning quarterback Justin Hebert whose main passing targets are all back as well as his OL. The defense will be put through one of their toughest tests in the first game of the season.

As far as our offense is concerned, we should be able to move the ball fairly alright. Their run defense was good but not great and their pass defense is stingy but not very deep. If we get the right matchups we could have some success. It's a shootout and frankly they're much more proven on offense and we're much more proven on defense. So our strengths will be colliding!

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Gus is 5-1 in season openers, he will have his team ready to pounce on the Ducks.  The D will disrupt any rhythm Oregon tries to establish, and the offense should be able to run on that defense easily.   

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5 minutes ago, keesler said:

Gus is 5-1 in season openers, he will have his team ready to pounce on the Ducks.  The D will disrupt any rhythm Oregon tries to establish, and the offense should be able to run on that defense easily.   

Sounds good...and Oregon is ranked several places above us the too early polls so I would expect them to be at least a3 point favorite or something like that. 

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9 minutes ago, keesler said:

Gus is 5-1 in season openers, he will have his team ready to pounce on the Ducks.  The D will disrupt any rhythm Oregon tries to establish, and the offense should be able to run on that defense easily.   

I hope so... And yeah Gus is 5-1 in season openers, but lets not pretend he always has his team figured out by then. This isnt Arkansas, Georgia Southern, Washington State, or...gulp...the mighty Jacksonville State team that ALMOST beat us game 1 a few years ago. 

This team has a hometown legit heisman contender at QB that many saw as the #1 pick in this past draft had he decided to enter the draft. 

Luckily our strength is defense. 

Id be shocked to see us blow them out. That team has a lot of momentum right now. On and off the field. 

Its gonna be a tough game

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6 minutes ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

the mighty Jacksonville State team that ALMOST beat us game 1 a few years ago.

We waited in anticipation all offseason for that season, thus first game, too. Lol. So frustrating. 

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