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Phil Steele on 2019 Auburn Season


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Phil Steele projects 2019 outlook for Auburn

BySAM HELLMAN 

Many project a stronger 2019 season for Auburn football. Gus Malzahn returns as head coach, and takes over as his own play caller in 2019 after some frustrating moments saw the Tigers finish fifth in the division and 8-5 overall.

Add longtime college football analyst Phil Steele to the list of people that expect some big moments from Auburn this year, but will it be enough to make noise in the stacked SEC West? Steele made the comparison to LSU in 2018 during a recent radio appearance on 94.5 JOX.

“The main concern I have with Auburn is that schedule,” Steele said. “ … They play that game against Oregon in Arlington. They have to play Texas A&M on the road. Right now in Vegas, they’re an underdog in that game. They have to play Florida on the road … LSU on the road, Georgia and Alabama at home. I know they beat Georgia and Alabama at home the last time they played them, but coming into the season they are actually an underdog in five games. To put another note on there, LSU was the same boat last year, and they ended up with 10 wins. I think you’re going to see an improved Auburn team this year, one that’s really good at the line of scrimmage, but that’s a hellacious schedule that I rate as the second toughest in the country.”

The LSU comparison is an interesting one. LSU was a fringe top-25 team to start last season, but surged in the rankings with a blowout of Miami in Week 1 and then the September win at Auburn. 

The schedule is a challenging one for Auburn, but it also sets up for some potential big moments. Steele is impressed with what Auburn returns to the field, and appears bullish on the overall season outlook.

“The thing I love about Auburn is talent,” Steele said. “Look at the offensive and defensive line. I’ve got them at the No. 5 offensive line in the country, the No. 2 rated defensive line in the country. If you’re strong at the line of scrimmage, you’re going to win a lot of games. Not only are they good offensively and defensively, they have my No. 3 special teams. Main concern is how’s the new quarterback going to do, but I think the fact that they have a more mobile quarterback is perfect for the Gus Malzahn offense. I think that’s a plus this year.”

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At quarterback, the decision comes down to either Joey Gatewood or Bo Nix to run the show in place of Jarrett Stidham.

“The fact that we are going to start a freshman the first game, that kinda stresses you, but when you have the experience and leadership we have, I’m really excited about those two guys’ future,” Malzahn said about the Week 1 battle with Oregon and senior Justin Herbert.

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Hellacious Schedule.  Time to buckle up and get it done COACHES, show 'em what you're made of on the big stage. 

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Smart guys like Phil Steele see how much talent we have stockpiled. The schedule is difficult every year but at some point you gotta win some football games. We recruit way too much talent to have to rely on the stars aligning every fourth year to win and then be frustratingly mediocre the rest of the time. 

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Thanks for posting this.  It’s refreshing to hear his take on it.  His has a pretty good record to be impartial and fairly accurate.  

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Number 5 offensive line in the country and number 2 defensive line. Wow. That’s pretty amazing.

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1 hour ago, DAG said:

Number 5 offensive line in the country and number 2 defensive line. Wow. That’s pretty amazing.

Yes it is! I’m really excited about the coming season and I guess hope springs eternal for me! It was nice to read something positive from a person who’s really knowledgeable about it.

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Got a strong feeling we'll beat LSU in BR.....blew a big lead the last time there and last year they ripped our hearts out....they didn't expect to win that game and so I feel we'll win this season...

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#5 OLine???? Really? Did Phil Steele watch any film from last year. Couldn't disagree more. Our DLine at #2 is legit anchored by Brown and lots of experience and depth. Would love to see a serious buck/pass rusher emerge. 

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9 hours ago, AubFanCT said:

#5 OLine???? Really? Did Phil Steele watch any film from last year. Couldn't disagree more. Our DLine at #2 is legit anchored by Brown and lots of experience and depth. Would love to see a serious buck/pass rusher emerge. 

Yes really.  He probably saw what most fans saw in the OL progressing every game to where the last three games they held their own against UGA and Alabama.  

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11 hours ago, DAG said:

Number 5 offensive line in the country and number 2 defensive line. Wow. That’s pretty amazing.

It makes one appreciate Grimes a little more and think that he took more flak then he deserved last year.  

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1 hour ago, abw0004 said:

Yes really.  He probably saw what most fans saw in the OL progressing every game to where the last three games they held their own against UGA and Alabama.  

Held their own against uga? We had 274 yards of total offense. We didn't give up any sacks on 36 pass attempts, which is okay, but when 18 of the 24 completions were to All Time Screen Guy or running backs...

Held their own against bama? We got all the way up to 283 yards of offense... and gave up 3 sacks.

What exactly qualifies as "holding their own" for you?

I get it. Lots of people have bought into it. It confounds me, but enough people think that way that there must be something to it. They weren't as abjectly terrible at the end of the season as they were at the beginning. There was improvement. So folks somehow remember them as being good by the end. And then there was the Purdue beatdown, and I have to admit that offers the faintest glimmer of hope for all but the most pessimistic among us. But they weren't "good". 

Steele clearly isn't doing a deep dive with his research. He is looking at how many starts and how many upperclassmen we're returning on the OL and that makes us look really good on paper and that is often a pretty good predictor of success. But he has no idea what our depth situation is and he doesn't take into account just how inefficient our offense was last season. That LSU comparison seems really optimistic given that they averaged 21 yards more per game in 2017 than we did last year. 

Btw, Steele had us picked to finish 2nd in the West last year. 

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Sorry to belabor the point, but I just wanted to give some numbers to back up my thoughts. In Amen Corner, after our OL had improved so much, we gained 40 and 35 yards less of total offense, respectively, than uga and bama gave up on average in 2018. 

To me, that says that our OL had not even worked their way up to average- within the parameters of a what we'll call a typical SEC schedule, even though we love to complain about bama and uga having easier schedules each season than we do- by the end of the regular season. 

#5 in the country? I mean, I sure hope so, but hope has won exactly 2 games in 5 years. It's lost a hell of a lot more than that in that time. 

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58 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Held their own against uga? We had 274 yards of total offense. We didn't give up any sacks on 36 pass attempts, which is okay, but when 18 of the 24 completions were to All Time Screen Guy or running backs...  They were not allowing sacks, buying Stidham time.  Earlier in the season we could not do that.  We only ran the ball 20 times, and tried to throw 37 times for 163 yards.

Held their own against bama? We got all the way up to 283 yards of offense... and gave up 3 sacks.  The three sacks is below their average per game.  I believe they averaged ~4 sacks per game for 2018.  We had 30 throws and 44 carries in that game.  Of the 30 throws, only 13 were completed for 127 yards.  That does not fall on the line, and is the reason why our yards were so low.

What exactly qualifies as "holding their own" for you?  Not being pushed back constantly, forcing our quarterback to scramble.  Stidham running on his own doesn't count.  Sacks.  

I get it. Lots of people have bought into it. It confounds me, but enough people think that way that there must be something to it. They weren't as abjectly terrible at the end of the season as they were at the beginning. There was improvement. So folks somehow remember them as being good by the end. And then there was the Purdue beatdown, and I have to admit that offers the faintest glimmer of hope for all but the most pessimistic among us. But they weren't "good".  A few articles were written on their improvement, which is what you want to see anyways on the OL.  If you recall, I said all along, the OL improvement will not happen immediately.  It takes at least one year, which is why you saw improvement at the tail end.

Steele clearly isn't doing a deep dive with his research. He is looking at how many starts and how many upperclassmen we're returning on the OL and that makes us look really good on paper and that is often a pretty good predictor of success. But he has no idea what our depth situation is and he doesn't take into account just how inefficient our offense was last season. That LSU comparison seems really optimistic given that they averaged 21 yards more per game in 2017 than we did last year.  This is what Steele is known for is his deep-diving research.  I think he goes further into depth than you think.  His main claim to fame is his Athlon (I am pretty sure it is this magazine) ranking magazine.  

Btw, Steele had us picked to finish 2nd in the West last year.  

 

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2 hours ago, abw0004 said:

Yes really.  He probably saw what most fans saw in the OL progressing every game to where the last three games they held their own against UGA and Alabama.  

The line improved and they dang sure manhandled those Boilermaker's like men against a termite pee wee team. :yay:

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1 minute ago, abw0004 said:

They were not allowing sacks, buying Stidham time.  Earlier in the season we could not do that.  We only ran the ball 20 times, and tried to throw 37 times for 163 yards.

No, they weren't buying him time. That's why I pointed out how many screens we threw. Look at the guy who caught the most balls and how many yards he had on those catches. It's been discussed at length for 2 years now. Ryan Davis was a running back who caught the pitch in the flat. 

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I believe they averaged ~4 sacks per game for 2018.  We had 30 throws and 44 carries in that game.  Of the 30 throws, only 13 were completed for 127 yards.  That does not fall on the line, and is the reason why our yards were so low.

So we gave up 1 less sack? That's "holding our own"? You don't think a NFL draft pick quarterback might have thrown 17 incompletions and "only" gotten sacked 3 times because he was pressured most of the game?? Wow.

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Not being pushed back constantly, forcing our quarterback to scramble.  Stidham running on his own doesn't count.  Sacks.  

 Yeah. We didn't hold our own against those teams.

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A few articles were written on their improvement, which is what you want to see anyways on the OL.  If you recall, I said all along, the OL improvement will not happen immediately.  It takes at least one year, which is why you saw improvement at the tail end.

Yes, they improved. Nobody disagrees about that. They improved from "they're really really really really bad" to "they're not as bad as they were before". Now you're seriously entertaining the notion that they're a top 5 OL in the nation

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This is what Steele is known for is his deep-diving research.  I think he goes further into depth than you think.  His main claim to fame is his Athlon (I am pretty sure it is this magazine) ranking magazine.  

I think you completely missed my point. And I'm well aware of Steele's resume. He still misses more than he hits. Again, he had us picked to finish 2nd in the West last year. 

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8 minutes ago, keesler said:

The line improved and they dang sure manhandled those Boilermaker's like men against a termite pee wee team. :yay:

Which is exactly what they were. At least by the time we played them.

Their results last year looked a little like ours in 2014, when we were decent for the first half of the season and then there's a clear line where we just fell apart completely. I personally believe something happened to us in 2014, and it looks like something happened to them last year. Purdue only gave up more than 31 points once in the first 8 games of the season- to Missouri- and then only gave up less than 36 once in their last 5- to Indiana. And the schedule didn't really get any harder late. 

Not only did we have a significant talent advantage, but we were facing a defense that, if I had to guess, was depleted and/or dispirited. In the Music City Bowl.

Oh, and we shouldn't forget that Kevin Steele once gave up 70 points to West Virginia. At Clemson. Bowl results are a tricky thing. (Side note: How much it must piss him off that his defense played shutdown football against them twice and still lost both games.)

 

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17 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

No, they weren't buying him time. That's why I pointed out how many screens we threw. Look at the guy who caught the most balls and how many yards he had on those catches. It's been discussed at length for 2 years now. Ryan Davis was a running back who caught the pitch in the flat.  The average yards per catch in that game is 6.88 yards, with 5 passes longer than 10 yards.  Yes there were screens, but they were not all screens.  And yes they did buy time.  Zero sacks.  Zero quarterback hurries in that game.  They may not have been pushing back UGA's line, but they were at least stalemating.  In full disclosure, UGA had an average TFL of 4.64 and they got 4 on us so we didn't really come in much below their average there.

So we gave up 1 less sack? That's "holding our own"? You don't think a NFL draft pick quarterback might have thrown 17 incompletions and "only" gotten sacked 3 times because he was pressured most of the game?? Wow.  Against Alabama's defense.  That is absolutely holding your own.  You aren't going to prevent a team who is elite in a particular area from doing what they do the whole game.  That is like saying you will shut out Clemson's offense, or Oklahoma's.  But if you hold them below their average that is a win.  Alabama was ranked 10th in sacks for 2018.  Alabama also averaged 7.1 TFL's per game (ranked 26th) and only got 5 from Auburn.

 Yeah. We didn't hold our own against those teams.  The statistics provided above should help provide some clarity.  

Yes, they improved. Nobody disagrees about that. They improved from "they're really really really really bad" to "they're not as bad as they were before". Now you're seriously entertaining the notion that they're a top 5 OL in the nationThe jury is still out if it is a top 5 in the nation for me honestly.  But I can see why someone like Phil could be right.  Tega, Horton and Harrell all got top honors from Pro Football Focus this offseason.  Center will be the key this season.

I think you completely missed my point. And I'm well aware of Steele's resume. He still misses more than he hits. Again, he had us picked to finish 2nd in the West last year. I understood what you said, but I think you are missing on what Phil Steele does.  He is not much into predicting records or who wins what.  He is more into statistics of all categories on a team.  Like ranking offensive lines for instance.  A good way to think about it is, these rankings shouldn't pertain to the amount of wins because it does not factor in the playcalling or head coach.  Make sense? 

 

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1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

I mean, I sure hope so, but hope has won exactly 2 games in 5 years. It's lost a hell of a lot more than that in that time.

You know the game we lost in those 5 years was not *hope’s* fault, it was player execution.

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13 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

The statistics provided above should help provide some clarity. 

Well, the fact that you cherry-picked the one or two stats on which we performed slightly better than those teams' averages- remember, we are supposed to be one of the very best team's on bama's schedule, especially since Phil Steele picked us to finish 2nd in the West last year- would provide clarity on your approach to these conversations if I weren't already familiar with it. 

20 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

I understood what you said, but I think you are missing on what Phil Steele does.  He is not much into predicting records or who wins what.  He is more into statistics of all categories on a team.  Like ranking offensive lines for instance.  A good way to think about it is, these rankings shouldn't pertain to the amount of wins because it does not factor in the playcalling or head coach.  Make sense? 

Ah. So you're trying that condescending thing there at the end. Don't do that. I don't misunderstand you. I think you're wrong.

This is probably not a good use of time for either of us. 

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7 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Well, the fact that you cherry-picked the one or two stats on which we performed slightly better than those teams' averages- remember, we are supposed to be one of the very best team's on bama's schedule, especially since Phil Steele picked us to finish 2nd in the West last year- would provide clarity on your approach to these conversations if I weren't already familiar with it.  When is comes to the offensive line, the only stats you can show are sacks, tackles for loss, and quarterback hurries.  How is that cherry-picking?  The only other stat I can think of is rush yards maybe?  But rush yards do not start until after they get past the line of scrimmage which is where tackles for loss comes into play.  Not too sure why you think I am cherry-picking.  If there are other stats you think need to be included you are more than welcome to provide them but I genuinely cannot think of any.  I even gave statistics that did not help my case.

Ah. So you're trying that condescending thing there at the end. Don't do that. I don't misunderstand you. I think you're wrong.  How is that condescending?  I was trying to go out of my way to provide clarity on my viewpoint, one that many agree with.  You can simply Google "Auburn's offensive line improving" and they all will refer the the last month of play.  I was giving an example and asking if my example made sense to you.

This is probably not a good use of time for either of us.  

 

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I’m not sure the low outputs against UGA and Bama had as much to do with the line than play calling.  The UGA game I feel like Auburn gave up trying to run the ball and went pass heavy in the second half.  The Iron Bowl I though was pretty decent through the first half but when Bama came out swinging in the 2nd Auburn went pass heavy again trying to keep up.  I’d have to go back and look at per run avg but I think it was decent.

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2 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

I’m not sure the low outputs against UGA and Bama had as much to do with the line than play calling.  The UGA game I feel like Auburn gave up trying to run the ball and went pass heavy in the second half.  The Iron Bowl I though was pretty decent through the first half but when Bama came out swinging in the 2nd Auburn went pass heavy again trying to keep up.  I’d have to go back and look at per run avg but I think it was decent.

5.1 ypc and 3.0 ypc, respectively. 

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Phil Steele is straight shooter. He makes sense. Still not sure about the o-line or d-line being that dominant . Just being cautiously optimistic 

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The D line is terrific. No. 2 is reasonable.  Can't buy into No. 5 for the O-line, but if we can stay healthy they will be pretty good.  I love mobile QB's.  I think that alone will make our offense much improved. We will see though. So far our QB is just potential.  Somebody will have to grow up fast and prove it on the field.  I like this team a lot, but even Clemson and Bama would struggle to get through our schedule unscathed.

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10 minutes ago, JDUBB4AU said:

Phil Steele is straight shooter. He makes sense. Still not sure about the o-line or d-line being that dominant . Just being cautiously optimistic 

My concern with DL is finding a pass rusher, says Captain Obvious, especially now that Jibunor's gone. Dammit, that kid. Anyway, I'm hoping that we can replicate what we had with Holland a couple years ago where we got so much push in the middle that he was often just cleaning up what they flushed out of the pocket. I'm not saying he wasn't good or that we have somebody as good, but I do think everyone on that line benefited from everyone else doing their jobs. I think maybe some nicks and bruises on the interior last year compromised overall production but we'll see. Goodness knows Moultry has the athleticism if the light goes on for him. 

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