Reason for Hope with Our Schedule

[abw0004 10,104]

Good morning all,

There has been much discussion about how brutal our schedule is without much diving into it.  This morning I did just that to find ways we can navigate it.  I am confident in my results with the silver linings.  The key is to take it one game at a time.  Look too far out and you get caught in a trap game or you get overwhelmed.  Let's hear your thoughts!

Key:  Home - Away

08/31 - Oregon Ducks  This is our first game.  We have had all summer to prepare.  Oregon is still rebuilding, so we have a decent chance of winning this outright.

09/07 - Tulane Green Wave  First home game.  This should be a game we can fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.

09/14 - Kent State Golden Flashes  Second home game.  This should be a game we can continue to fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.

09/21 - Texas A&M Aggies  By the time we arrive at this game, we have had two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M.  Texas A&M has only had one week to prepare for us as they played Clemson in week 2.

09/28 - Mississippi State Bulldogs   This is a home game for us without three of their top players from the year before that gave us fits.  We only have game week to prepare, but they are in the same position having just played Kansas State and Kentucky prior.  This should be a very winnable game without it being close.

10/05 - Florida Gators  This game is one of the most worrisome for me.  A lot for Florida to play for in this one.  They have lost the last three games to Auburn.  Florida also has had a week to prepare for us as they played Townson the week prior.

10/12 - BYE WEEK  Week of rest is always a good one.

10/19 - Arkansas Razrobacks  Great tuneup for Auburn.  Being an SEC team, never sleep on the Razrobacks, but we should win this fairly soundly.

10/26 - LSU Tigers    This away game and the Florida away game are the two games that I do not like going into.  I never believed in the LSU curse of Auburn not being able to win there.  So playing in that stadium does not faze me more than any other away game.  LSU is coming off of an away game to Mississippi State and having played Florida the week before.  We should be fairly even with time to game plan.

11/02 - Ole Miss Rebels  Home game.  This could be a trap game if we sleep on them, but at home I still like our chances.

11/09 - BYE WEEK  Critical timing of this bye as we get an extra week to rest and prepare for Georgia, at home.

11/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.

11/23 - Samford Bulldogs  Another home tune up for the next week.

11/30 - Alabama Crimson Tide  Big game as always, but at home.

[keesler 5,924]

So what kind of record do you project with that schedule?

[I_M4_AU 7,768]

I love your enthusiasm especially this time of year.  It is your time of the season to shine.  Your analysis seems good, but (and you knew it was coming) you put a lot of emphasis on game planning.  I really don’t see Gus having too much of a problem with his game plans.  The problem comes when they don’t work and Gus is either too slow or incapable to react in a timely fashion.  This has been evident in the LSU series the last two years, their DC is a quick learner and in the second half of both of those games, he basically shut down Gus’ offense.

So, the hype is great, but as always, I’m waiting until Gus adapts to the game situations as they unfold.  So far he has been reluctant to do so.   We won’t be able to tell much until his offense gets hit in the mouth and see how he reacts.  That is the key for me to enjoy this season.

[abw0004 10,104]

22 minutes ago, keesler said:

So what kind of record do you project with that schedule?

I don't project records.  I can never bring myself to ever predict an Auburn team to lose.  I always look for ways they can win.  Same reason I never bet on Auburn athletics, takes the fun out of it completely for me as I am now wanting them to win for monetary gain.

12 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

I love your enthusiasm especially this time of year.  It is your time of the season to shine.  Your analysis seems good, but (and you knew it was coming) you put a lot of emphasis on game planning.  I really don’t see Gus having too much of a problem with his game plans.  The problem comes when they don’t work and Gus is either too slow or incapable to react in a timely fashion.  This has been evident in the LSU series the last two years, their DC is a quick learner and in the second half of both of those games, he basically shut down Gus’ offense.

So, the hype is great, but as always, I’m waiting until Gus adapts to the game situations as they unfold.  So far he has been reluctant to do so.   We won’t be able to tell much until his offense gets hit in the mouth and see how he reacts.  That is the key for me to enjoy this season.

This is true, although I hope Dillingham will correct this.

[I_M4_AU 7,768]

6 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

 I hope Dillingham will correct this.

Believe it or not, so do I.

[CAReeves2010 627]

41 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

10/26 - LSU Tigers    This away game and the Florida away game are the two games that I do not like going into.  I never believed in the LSU curse of Auburn not being able to win there.  So playing in that stadium does not faze me more than any other away game.  LSU is coming off of an away game to Mississippi State and having played Florida the week before.  We should be fairly even with time to game plan.

I'm honestly looking forward to the UF game more than any mostly because it brings back old memories with family and I'll be there. AU's lost in almost every way a team can lose in the last 20 years in Baton Rouge. After '17 I think sage oil and incense should be part of the gameplan this year

[aubiefifty 16,705]

i think we have decent to great talent. and i think gus understanding his "player packages" pretty much told the other team what we were doing and changing it so we can do more with less players without giving it away to the  other team what we are doing will be huge. that being said oregon scares me. they are loaded for bear and their head coach knows what it takes to win in the sec.

  but i believe gus will do everything he can this year to get auburn over the hump even knowing how brutal our schedule is. he is coaching for his job this year and he will either rise or he will not. as a loyal auburn fan i will pull for gus until he no longer wears the orange and blue and will wish him well. i think oregon is huge in that regard. we bear them and we get momentum and hopefully have a fun ride....

[auburn4ever 1,266]

7-5 again.

[WFE12 9,191]

15 hours ago, abw0004 said:

I don't project records.  I can never bring myself to ever predict an Auburn team to lose.  I always look for ways they can win.  Same reason I never bet on Auburn athletics, takes the fun out of it completely for me as I am now wanting them to win for monetary gain.

This is true, although I hope Dillingham will correct this.

I wouldn't advise you to put your eggs in that basket.

[AuburnEagle79 2,163]

Best case scenario I see us winning 10, similar to 2017. A lot has to go right for that. 8 seems more likely. 

[ChltteTiger 649]

18 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i think we have decent to great talent. and i think gus understanding his "player packages" pretty much told the other team what we were doing and changing it so we can do more with less players without giving it away to the  other team what we are doing will be huge. that being said oregon scares me. they are loaded for bear and their head coach knows what it takes to win in the sec.

  but i believe gus will do everything he can this year to get auburn over the hump even knowing how brutal our schedule is. he is coaching for his job this year and he will either rise or he will not. as a loyal auburn fan i will pull for gus until he no longer wears the orange and blue and will wish him well. i think oregon is huge in that regard. we bear them and we get momentum and hopefully have a fun ride....

Keep repeating over and over ad nauseum maybe the positive vibes will work.

[keesler 5,924]

7 hours ago, WFE12 said:

I wouldn't advise you to put your eggs in that basket.

Aw now, do you not think that young, energetic brain will match up well with the seasoned defensive tacticians in this conference?  

[abw0004 10,104]

Another thing to consider:  No opponent this year has a bye week the week before they play us.

[abw0004 10,104]

Thought I would revisit this and see how well we have performed in games of how I thought we could/can win them:

On 7/18/2019 at 9:58 AM, abw0004 said:

Good morning all,

There has been much discussion about how brutal our schedule is without much diving into it.  This morning I did just that to find ways we can navigate it.  I am confident in my results with the silver linings.  The key is to take it one game at a time.  Look too far out and you get caught in a trap game or you get overwhelmed.  Let's hear your thoughts!

Key:  Home - Away

08/31 - Oregon Ducks  This is our first game.  We have had all summer to prepare.  Oregon is still rebuilding, so we have a decent chance of winning this outright.  Was not pretty until the last drive.  We found a way to win with a true freshmen quarterback in his first start.  Their only loss of the season so far is to us.

09/07 - Tulane Green Wave  First home game.  This should be a game we can fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  A lot more of a dogfight than I was expecting.  They have proved to be a quality team with their only loss so far is to us.

09/14 - Kent State Golden Flashes  Second home game.  This should be a game we can continue to fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  Was indeed a tuneup game for our offense.  Offense outplayed out defense.

09/21 - Texas A&M Aggies  By the time we arrive at this game, we have had two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M.  Texas A&M has only had one week to prepare for us as they played Clemson in week 2.  I think we were well prepared as predicted and caught everyone by suprise.

09/28 - Mississippi State Bulldogs   This is a home game for us without three of their top players from the year before that gave us fits.  We only have game week to prepare, but they are in the same position having just played Kansas State and Kentucky prior.  This should be a very winnable game without it being close.  Expect us to take care of business this weekend.  Many are fearing this is a trap game, but our defense remembers what happened last year.  No way they forgot.

10/05 - Florida Gators  This game is one of the most worrisome for me.  A lot for Florida to play for in this one.  They have lost the last three games to Auburn.  Florida also has had a week to prepare for us as they played Townson the week prior.  I am not a worried as I once was.  Do not sleep on them though in The Swamp.

10/12 - BYE WEEK  Week of rest is always a good one.

10/19 - Arkansas Razrobacks  Great tuneup for Auburn.  Being an SEC team, never sleep on the Razrobacks, but we should win this fairly soundly.  Same feelings.

10/26 - LSU Tigers    This away game and the Florida away game are the two games that I do not like going into.  I never believed in the LSU curse of Auburn not being able to win there.  So playing in that stadium does not faze me more than any other away game.  LSU is coming off of an away game to Mississippi State and having played Florida the week before.  We should be fairly even with time to game plan.  This should now be the most worrisome to date.  Our offense should have the edge over their defense, however their offense is hitting on all cylinders.  Fortunately, their new offense we have been running for years.  Nothing our defense has not seen.

11/02 - Ole Miss Rebels  Home game.  This could be a trap game if we sleep on them, but at home I still like our chances.  Same feelings.

11/09 - BYE WEEK  Critical timing of this bye as we get an extra week to rest and prepare for Georgia, at home.

11/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too.

11/23 - Samford Bulldogs  Another home tune up for the next week.  Same feelings.

11/30 - Alabama Crimson Tide  Big game as always, but at home.  How healthy will they be by the time we play them?

 

[DAG 33,955]

29 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Thought I would revisit this and see how well we have performed in games of how I thought we could/can win them:

 

9 wins is still holding up strong . I am saying we get 10 if we win all the games we are suppose to win. 

[leglessdan 1,934]

/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too._______________________

Their TE gave uga fits all night long.

[AuburnNTexas 7,127]

8 hours ago, leglessdan said:

/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too._______________________

Their TE gave uga fits all night long.

Maybe by then our Fromm will be ready to give us a pass catching TE that can give his brother's team  fits. I would love to see us win the game and have him be a big part of the win. Probably won't even play but it is nice to dream.

[AUFriction 1,179]

12 hours ago, abw0004 said:

Thought I would revisit this and see how well we have performed in games of how I thought we could/can win them:

 

I largely agree with you here. Given where we've been, the next question mark should be against LSU. But their defense is not what it has been. There are real weaknesses. Our offense will be able to score, and our defense should hold them to relatively low points. This game now feels very winnable. Georgia looked unimpressive, and showed glaring weaknesses against ND. The game that worries me the most at this point is Bama. It isn't just talent. Tua isn't being asked to do much. He's mostly being given easy underneath passes, and the receivers are making plays. We've not been the best at defending the short passing game. I feel like we just may not match up well against them this year. Still, if they keep getting injured like they have been, we stand a decent chance.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

I thought, even coming in, the first half was relatively manageable. I thought A&M would be better but I didn’t think the world of UO and Florida

i would’ve had us with 1 loss going into B/R, but we should be undefeated 

[aublaise 199]

11 hours ago, leglessdan said:

/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too._______________________

Their TE gave uga fits all night long.

Maybe Jay Jay Wilson will be fully integrated into the offense by then.  I have been very impressed by what I have seen of him so far.  He seems like a guy that should have a role in any package or play and never come off the field.  

[abw0004 10,104]

Time to revisit again.  This weeks comments are in blue:

On 9/25/2019 at 7:46 AM, abw0004 said:

Good morning all,

There has been much discussion about how brutal our schedule is without much diving into it.  This morning I did just that to find ways we can navigate it.  I am confident in my results with the silver linings.  The key is to take it one game at a time.  Look too far out and you get caught in a trap game or you get overwhelmed.  Let's hear your thoughts!

Key:  Home - Away

08/31 - Oregon Ducks  This is our first game.  We have had all summer to prepare.  Oregon is still rebuilding, so we have a decent chance of winning this outright.  Was not pretty until the last drive.  We found a way to win with a true freshmen quarterback in his first start.  Their only loss of the season so far is to us.

09/07 - Tulane Green Wave  First home game.  This should be a game we can fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  A lot more of a dogfight than I was expecting.  They have proved to be a quality team with their only loss so far is to us.

09/14 - Kent State Golden Flashes  Second home game.  This should be a game we can continue to fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  Was indeed a tuneup game for our offense.  Offense outplayed out defense.

09/21 - Texas A&M Aggies  By the time we arrive at this game, we have had two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M.  Texas A&M has only had one week to prepare for us as they played Clemson in week 2.  I think we were well prepared as predicted and caught everyone by suprise.

09/28 - Mississippi State Bulldogs   This is a home game for us without three of their top players from the year before that gave us fits.  We only have game week to prepare, but they are in the same position having just played Kansas State and Kentucky prior.  This should be a very winnable game without it being close.  Expect us to take care of business this weekend.  Many are fearing this is a trap game, but our defense remembers what happened last year.  No way they forgot.  Looks like I was right on point here.  The players, nor the crowd forgot last year's loss.

10/05 - Florida Gators  This game is one of the most worrisome for me.  A lot for Florida to play for in this one.  They have lost the last three games to Auburn.  Florida also has had a week to prepare for us as they played Townson the week prior.  I am not a worried as I once was.  Do not sleep on them though in The Swamp.  I vastly underestimated the Swamp and how loud it would be.  Through the loss, I feel confident no other stadium will faze Nix, inlcuding Death Valley.

10/12 - BYE WEEK  Week of rest is always a good one.

10/19 - Arkansas Razrobacks  Great tuneup for Auburn.  Being an SEC team, never sleep on the Razrobacks, but we should win this fairly soundly.  Same feelings.  Early games scare me, but over the past few years Auburn has always been up for the challenge.  Stay focused and healthy during this game.

10/26 - LSU Tigers    This away game and the Florida away game are the two games that I do not like going into.  I never believed in the LSU curse of Auburn not being able to win there.  So playing in that stadium does not faze me more than any other away game.  LSU is coming off of an away game to Mississippi State and having played Florida the week before.  We should be fairly even with time to game plan.  This should now be the most worrisome to date.  Our offense should have the edge over their defense, however their offense is hitting on all cylinders.  Fortunately, their new offense we have been running for years.  Nothing our defense has not seen.  I am concerned more about this game than in the past.  They key to this game will not be our defense, but our offense.  Our defense can do similar if not better than Florida's defense.  The key will be our offense continuing to put up points.  We will need a 2013-2014 type offense.  Can DJ Williams be our 2019 Michael Dyer?

11/02 - Ole Miss Rebels  Home game.  This could be a trap game if we sleep on them, but at home I still like our chances.  Same feelings.  They are slightly better than I give them credit for, but same overall feelings.

11/09 - BYE WEEK  Critical timing of this bye as we get an extra week to rest and prepare for Georgia, at home.

11/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too.  Like I thought after Notre Dame, this team is not near as good as many think.  I feel very strongly we can win this, at home. 

11/23 - Samford Bulldogs  Another home tune up for the next week.  Same feelings.  Same feelings, another tune-up.  Funny enough, this may be our easiest game considering our other tune-up games were worthy opponents.

11/30 - Alabama Crimson Tide  Big game as always, but at home.  How healthy will they be by the time we play them?  All comes down to health on both teams and how the UGA went.  Repeat of their last trip to Auburn?

 

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

1 hour ago, abw0004 said:

Time to revisit again.  This weeks comments are in blue:

 

Man you had some spot on thoughts on the schedule so far.  Nice work. As far as the rest of the year, I just don’t see a path to winning at LSU.  Based solely on Saturday’s performance the UGA game looks a lot more winnable now but you can never take it for granted considering they have taken us to the woodshed way too many times over the last 15 years.  Bama’s offense is scary good. Our defense will have to play lights out all game and that still might not be enough. Hopefully by then our offense will be clicking and we won’t have one of Gus’s famous games like against Florida. 

9-3 is where I think we end up. Win the bowl game and 10-3 is certainly an acceptable record for this season...but at some point, schedule be damned, Gus has to get to another level or we’re just treading water. And based on what we will/could lose personnel wise next year, it could be back to 7-5 again.  I think thats where most of us are frustrated, we’re tired of Auburn living in up/down ville all the time...and thats not just on Gus... 

[AUsince72 11,084]

5 hours ago, nixtosanders94 said:

Win the bowl game and 10-3 is certainly an acceptable record for this season...

Considering AU's already lost one, 10-3 would be remarkable IMO.  Especially if AU beats jawja.  I'd consider that a success all things considered...

[aucanucktiger 1,789]

Food for thought going forward IMO, esp for those of us with adrenaline crash hangover from that "almost but not quite" result.😖

War Eagle!🙂

[abw0004 10,104]

Updated comments are in green:

On 10/14/2019 at 12:07 PM, abw0004 said:

Good morning all,

There has been much discussion about how brutal our schedule is without much diving into it.  This morning I did just that to find ways we can navigate it.  I am confident in my results with the silver linings.  The key is to take it one game at a time.  Look too far out and you get caught in a trap game or you get overwhelmed.  Let's hear your thoughts!

Key:  Home - Away

08/31 - Oregon Ducks  This is our first game.  We have had all summer to prepare.  Oregon is still rebuilding, so we have a decent chance of winning this outright.  Was not pretty until the last drive.  We found a way to win with a true freshmen quarterback in his first start.  Their only loss of the season so far is to us.

09/07 - Tulane Green Wave  First home game.  This should be a game we can fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  A lot more of a dogfight than I was expecting.  They have proved to be a quality team with their only loss so far is to us.

09/14 - Kent State Golden Flashes  Second home game.  This should be a game we can continue to fix our mistakes from the first game and improve.  Was indeed a tuneup game for our offense.  Offense outplayed out defense.

09/21 - Texas A&M Aggies  By the time we arrive at this game, we have had two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M.  Texas A&M has only had one week to prepare for us as they played Clemson in week 2.  I think we were well prepared as predicted and caught everyone by suprise.

09/28 - Mississippi State Bulldogs   This is a home game for us without three of their top players from the year before that gave us fits.  We only have game week to prepare, but they are in the same position having just played Kansas State and Kentucky prior.  This should be a very winnable game without it being close.  Expect us to take care of business this weekend.  Many are fearing this is a trap game, but our defense remembers what happened last year.  No way they forgot.  Looks like I was right on point here.  The players, nor the crowd forgot last year's loss.

10/05 - Florida Gators  This game is one of the most worrisome for me.  A lot for Florida to play for in this one.  They have lost the last three games to Auburn.  Florida also has had a week to prepare for us as they played Townson the week prior.  I am not a worried as I once was.  Do not sleep on them though in The Swamp.  I vastly underestimated the Swamp and how loud it would be.  Through the loss, I feel confident no other stadium will faze Nix, inlcuding Death Valley.

10/12 - BYE WEEK  Week of rest is always a good one.

10/19 - Arkansas Razrobacks  Great tuneup for Auburn.  Being an SEC team, never sleep on the Razrobacks, but we should win this fairly soundly.  Same feelings.  Early games scare me, but over the past few years Auburn has always been up for the challenge.  Stay focused and healthy during this game.  Took care of Arkansas like I knew they would early and easily.

10/26 - LSU Tigers    This away game and the Florida away game are the two games that I do not like going into.  I never believed in the LSU curse of Auburn not being able to win there.  So playing in that stadium does not faze me more than any other away game.  LSU is coming off of an away game to Mississippi State and having played Florida the week before.  We should be fairly even with time to game plan.  This should now be the most worrisome to date.  Our offense should have the edge over their defense, however their offense is hitting on all cylinders.  Fortunately, their new offense we have been running for years.  Nothing our defense has not seen.  I am concerned more about this game than in the past.  They key to this game will not be our defense, but our offense.  Our defense can do similar if not better than Florida's defense.  The key will be our offense continuing to put up points.  We will need a 2013-2014 type offense.  Can DJ Williams be our 2019 Michael Dyer?  Sad we lost and I had good reason to be concerned.  I am gaining more and more respect for Coach O.  Closer than everyone expected but we still lost.  

11/02 - Ole Miss Rebels  Home game.  This could be a trap game if we sleep on them, but at home I still like our chances.  Same feelings.  They are slightly better than I give them credit for, but same overall feelings.  It will be good to be back in our own stadium again.  That stretch of road games were way too long.  Night game.  Should be able to get our 7th win.  From here on out only home games.

11/09 - BYE WEEK  Critical timing of this bye as we get an extra week to rest and prepare for Georgia, at home.

11/16 - Georgia Bulldogs  This game is at home.  They do not scare me as much as other fans.  They lost a lot of players to the draft the previous year.  Georgia does not have a bye before us.  They play Bryant's Missouri team.  Advantage for Auburn.  The Notre Dame game gave us some good insight on how to exploit them on defense.  Get them at home too.  Like I thought after Notre Dame, this team is not near as good as many think.  I feel very strongly we can win this, at home.   I still very much think we win this.  Georgia does not scare me.  We get them in our house to boot.  Looking forward to it.

11/23 - Samford Bulldogs  Another home tune up for the next week.  Same feelings.  Same feelings, another tune-up.  Funny enough, this may be our easiest game considering our other tune-up games were worthy opponents.  Still should not be difficult.

11/30 - Alabama Crimson Tide  Big game as always, but at home.  How healthy will they be by the time we play them?  All comes down to health on both teams and how the UGA went.  Repeat of their last trip to Auburn?  For me this depends on if we beat UGA and who wins the LSU-Alabama game.  If we beat UGA and LSU beats Alabama I think we have a shot at winning this.