Auburn VS Oregon Discussion (Merged Threads)

[WFE12 9,191]

2019 Opponent Preview - Week One - Oregon

Jack Condon - College and Magnolia

 

Last week we gave you a quick overview of what Auburn’s up against with the 2019 football schedule. In case you missed it, the news isn’t great. It’s a tough road. Maybe the toughest in college football, since the Tigers may have as many as five top ten opponents on the slate when the season begins. One of those teams will be sitting across the field at Jerry World in Arlington on August 31st. 

Auburn began 2018 in Atlanta against a PAC-12 team and broke the Mercedes-Benz Stadium curse by beating Washington (the eventual conference champs) in an exciting game. Now the Tigers get another West Coast foe, only this one will be led by a consensus preseason top-five pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Let’s tell you about the Oregon Ducks.

2018 RECAP

Oregon was good-not-great in 2018, winning the games they should have and losing the games they should have. They really only had one tough stretch during the year, when they played four ranked teams in a row from September 22nd to October 20th. During that stretch they went 2-2, beating #7 Washington at home and #24 Cal on the road, but falling at home to #7 Stanford and at #25 Washington State. 

Other than that, Oregon was pretty solid in the first year after Willie Taggart. Mario Cristobal came on to take over the head coaching job, but the Ducks are far removed from what we came to know from them when Chip Kelly and Mark Helfrich ran the program. They’re not the lightning-quick offense that we saw, and Cristobal won’t rely on the running ability of the quarterback nearly as much as the Ducks did with Darron Thomas and Marcus Mariota. 

In the PAC-12, which was admittedly the worst of the Power Five conferences, Oregon was 25th in scoring offense (34.8 ppg), 48th in scoring defense (25.4 ppg), and finished fourth in the North division behind Washington, Washington State, and Stanford. 

What we’re going to see from them in Texas this August begins rightfully so at the quarterback position, so let’s break down what makes Justin Herbert the guy in the backfield for the Ducks.

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert’s got all of the physical tools to be a complete NFL quarterback. First of all, he’s huge, like almost Cam Newton-sized at 6’6, 233 pounds. He’s got a great arm and he finally started every game last season for the Ducks. In thirteen contests he threw for over 3,150 yards to go along with 29 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. His completion percentage could be better (just 59% last year), and he did regress from his 2017 yards/attempt (9.6 to 7.8), but he’s going to be the second guy taken at quarterback after Tua in the 2020 Draft. 

Despite being large, he won’t run much (just 166 yards on 71 carries last year), and he does have a tendency to either be a boom or bust guy in the passing game. He wasn’t super consistent throwing the ball, and without some of his top targets back for 2019, he’ll be in trouble if he can’t make find a rhythm. Some times it wasn’t necessary for him to play all that well, like in early wins over San Jose State (just 16-34 with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions), but he disappeared in consecutive losses to Washington State (115 rating) and Arizona (90 rating).

It’ll be tough for Herbert to find good footing against what should be one of the best defensive lines in the country, and a secondary that’s got a ton of experience as well. If he’s the focal point of the Oregon offense, he’ll need to depend on what might actually be the strength of that group to keep him upright.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Auburn’s defensive front vs Oregon’s offensive line should be one of the marquee position battles during the early part of the 2019 season. All five starters return from 2018, so the Duck front is big and seasoned, and it’ll probably look something like this:

LT Penei Sewell (6’6” 345)

LG Shane Lemieux (6’4” 317)

C Jake Hanson (6’5” 297)

RG Dallas Warmack (6’2” 316)

RT Calvin Throckmorton (6’5” 315)

Lemieux, Hanson, and Throckmorton all have at least 37 starts on the line, so they’re heading into their senior seasons, and everyone except for Sewell will be a senior in 2019. Throckmorton sat out of the spring with an injury sustained during the bowl game, but he should be back for the regular season. 

There’s not really a weakness, as Throckmorton’s absence gave the Ducks a chance to build some quality depth. Brady Aiello took over at right tackle for the spring, and he played really well. Additionally, Malasaela Aumavae-Laulu was the top JUCO lineman in the nation last year, and he’s pushing Dallas Warmack for the starting gig at right guard, so there’s not really a weak spot on the entire line. 

In 2018, they allowed 22 sacks in 13 games and paved the way for 4.5 ypc in the run game. It stands to reason that they’ll be better this year, but Auburn’s biggest strength will be the unit matched up against them in the opener. 

If the line can be good, then that allows Herbert to stay clean and make plays. That’s where the issues may be... some of the biggest playmakers from last year are gone.

WIDE RECEIVER

Dillon Mitchell led Oregon in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns last year. He’s gone, and with his departure go 75 grabs, 1,184 yards, and 10 scores. Mitchell was a big guy at 6’2, 189, and now the most prolific guy in the Oregon passing game is junior Jaylon Redd, who caught 37 passes last year. 

Redd will return, but he’s a different type of receiver at just 5’8. Also gone is the tight end Jacob Breeland, who snagged 24 passes for 377 yards in 2018. So with those absences, Redd, running back C.J. Verdell, and receiver Brenden Schooler seem to be the main targets for Herbert. Verdell was pretty solid out of the backfield as a pass catcher, and Schooler provides that big body that they’ll miss without Mitchell. 

Oregon’s going to rely heavily on some newcomers to the group this year. Penn State grad transfer Juwan Johnson provides a huge frame at 6’4, 231 pounds, and he joins the Ducks after catching 81 passes in his Nittany Lion career. After him, freshman Mycah Pittman may be a guy to watch out for as well. Both did pretty well in spring, and Pittman caught seven passes in the spring game. The position battles will likely only be settled once they get into fall practice. 

RUNNING BACKS

Unlike the wideouts, the backs are pretty much set in stone. C.J. Verdell will be the starter after a 1,018-yard (5.0 ypc), 10-touchdown season last year, and Travis Dyewill come in nearly as much as he finished 2018 with 739 yards (5.3 ypc) and 4 touchdowns.

Verdell’s a great all-purpose guy who added over 300 receiving yards last year, and he got a little bit more weight to increase his durability in the offseason. Behind him (next to him), Travis Dye actually came on stronger than Verdell at the end of the year, finishing off the regular season with a 199-yard outing against Oregon State. With a higher yards-per-carry average, he’s not so much a backup as starter 1B. 

Behind those two, the Ducks are really excited about Cyrus Habibi-Likio, who only got 18 carries last year but served as the goal-line runner (7 rushing touchdowns). He’s turned into more of an every down back, and we’ll certainly see him in situations further out from the goal line. 

This is a group that could work really well depending on how much the offensive staff leans on the running game this year. Behind a really experienced offensive line, Oregon could run through the PAC-12, but like we mentioned, they’ll have a heck of a task coming against the Auburn defense to start the year.

[WFE12 9,191]

2019 Opponent Preview - Week One - Oregon Pt. 2

Jack Condon - College and Magnolia

Yesterday we looked at the Oregon Duck offense as Auburn prepares to face Mario Cristobal and company in the opener in Arlintgon. Now, we turn our attention to the side of the ball with some questions — a new defensive coordinator and a ton of talent return, but we’ll see how they handle the transition. 

2018 RECAP

Oregon got to experience fairly good success last season under Jim Leavitt’s control on defense, but in the end the defense wasn’t the reason that the Ducks got to 9-4. Only three times did they allow less than 20 points (Portland State, Oregon State, Michigan State), and in their four losses they allowed 38, 34, 44, and 32 points. 

It’s pretty easy to see that those numbers weren’t good enough, and Jim Leavitt’s no longer commanding the defense. Enter Andy Avalos —

— as new defensive coordinator. Avalos came from Boise State, where he led a defense that was in the upper quarter of the country in most metrics. What Auburn will see in terms of a basic formation is the 3-3-5, with four players rushing on most plays. He’s a linebackers coach by trade, having played the position for the Broncos years ago, and he’s coached some really exceptional talents like Demarcus Lawrenceand Leighton Vander Esch. He’s going to have some interesting guys to work with as he coordinates the Oregon unit this season. Let’s see what they’ve got to work with in Eugene.

DEFENSIVE LINE

If you want to check out the projected depth chart after spring practice, courtesy of a familiar name, it’s listed here, and it features a ton of returning players across the board.

Up front, the guys you’ll need to know are big Jordon Scott in the middle, and then the defensive ends of either Gus Cumberlander(rSR)/Kayvon Thibodeaux (FR) on one side and Drayton Carlberg (rSR)/Gary Baker(rSR)/Austin Faoliu (rFR) on the other. Oregon will rotate all of these guys, who played extensively last year aside from Thibodeaux, who was one of the top recruits in the country. 

Scott’s a bowling ball (the big one, not the little pink one) at 6’1, 329 pounds, and he’ll clog up the middle while allowing everyone else to make plays. On one side, Gus Cumberlander only had 13 tackles last year, but four of them were sacks. He’ll play a more extensive role this year along with Thibodeaux. On the other side, the trio mentioned above combined for 99 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 2018, and with two fifth-year guys they won’t have any trouble adjusting to playing against an Auburn offensive line that’s going to have just as much experience. 

LINEBACKERS

There are a lot of these guys coming back, including the top tackler from last year’s team in Troy Dye at weak-side linebacker. He brings in his 109 tackles (6 TFLS, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 FF) as the most active member of the defense. It’s a good thing that he returns for Oregon since Andy Avalos will likely lean on him as the linebackers coach as well as defensive coordinator. Dye’s a big linebacker as well at 6’4, 224, so he’s able to scan the field and range around to make plays in all areas. Backing him up is Sampson Niu, who finished with 23 tackles last season. 

With the 3-3-5 defense that the Ducks will run, they’ll have the middle linebacker and a weak-side linebacker, but they’ll also have what they call the “Stud” manning the strong side. It looks as though the guy with the edge for that position is La’Mar Winston Jr., whose 2018 season was a fruitful one with 39 tackles, 4.5 TFLS, and 2 sacks. He’s another senior, and at 6’2, 218, he may be one of the guys asked to bring pressure along with the defensive front. 

Then in the middle, Isaac Slade-Mautautia seems to be the frontrunner for the starting spot. After playing in seven games in 2018, he returns with more experience, and ran with the first-team defense in the spring until the last week of practice, when Bryson Young made an unexpected jump into the starting role. This may be a battle all the way down through fall camp, as Young only had 17 tackles in 12 career games coming into the year. However he’s progressed, he says that he feels as comfortable as he ever has in the Oregon defense. At 6’5, 244 pounds, he’d be a huge weapon for the Ducks if he can wrap his mind around the task of playing linebacker.

The interesting part of trying to figure out where guys are going to fit is that Oregon’s eliminating a linebacker position from last year’s 3-4 defense as they go to the 3-3-5. That means that there’s just more experience for fewer spots, and that’s likely a problem that Avalos is enjoying trying to solve. 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

The secondary’s a spot where there aren’t many questions aside from the emergence of a new nickel role, where Oregon’s going to have to find a good starter to play alongside some seasoned vets. 

Let’s start with the cornerbacks, where it doesn’t seem as though there are many questions at all after spring practice. Thomas Graham Jr. and Deommodore Lenoir return for their junior seasons with a combined 6 interceptions and 27 pass deflections to their names from last year. Clearly, these are going to be two tough corners to throw on in the opener in Texas for whoever starts at quarterback for Auburn. 

At safety, it’s another story with returning starters, as Nick Pickett comes back at boundary safety (59 tackles, 1 INT in 2018), and Jevon Holland looks to follow up a fantastic freshman year at field safety. Holland led the team in interceptions with five as he racked up 42 tackles as well in the back end. The starting four at corner and safety are going to be ready to go, and boast a ton of time on the field. 

The new wrinkle comes at the nickel position, where they have to find a new face to fill a new role. It seems as though that job’s going to be done by Verone McKinley, a redshirt-freshman who played in the first three games of the season last year. Now, he’s looking to take a starting role for Andy Avalos after a spring that saw him emerge as a top talent in the secondary. In the spring game alone, he notched 5 tackles and a pass deflection, showing his anticipatory nature on the field in making plays. 

OVERALL

To be honest, I hadn’t really looked at this defense much since Justin Herbert gets a lot of the publicity for this team. After further review, however, they’re experienced, have upperclassmen at nearly every position, and will be coached by a guy that had great success at Boise. After finishing near the middle of the pack in most categories last year on defense, there’s a ton of room for improvement, and it’s hard to believe that they won’t succeed. 

Coupled with the fact that Auburn’s going to be breaking in a new quarterback, and there seem to be some really good guys in the secondary, either Joey Gatewood or Bo Nix are going to have be exceptionally careful with the ball in the opener. Perhaps we’ll get to see the Auburn offensive line wear things down with the run game first before we start to work in too much in the passing game. 

This won’t be the Oregon defense that we saw in the national championship game, where Cam Newton outweighed pretty much the entire starting lineup. These guys will match up better with us in terms of size, and a new scheme will mean trying to plan against a little of the unknown for the Auburn offensive staff.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Scott Vs.  Kim will dictate a lot of what Auburn can do on offense.  If Kim ends up in the backfield as much as he did last year then things are not going to go well.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Stop the run and make Herbert beat Auburn. He may be big but he’s no Cam.  Make Herbert scramble and his accuracy will hurt all game.

[bigbird 60,368]

Expect a lot of IZ, darts, and power.

[DAG 33,955]

Another of one of those “he has the look” prospects. I am really excited to see the battle in the trenches. Apparently, their offensive line will be a huge advantage.

[McLoofus 35,182]

57 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Expect a lot of IZ, darts, and power.

I'm actually really good at darts. This is my time. Time for me to quit typing and actually contribute for once. Time for me to...

...Ride for the Brand. 

 

[bigbird 60,368]

18 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I'm actually really good at darts. 

Cricket? 501? 301?

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Cricket? 501? 301?

And Shanghai in the coed league. 

[aubiefifty 16,705]

Oregon’s offensive line presents ‘red flags’ for Auburn’s vaunted defensive line

Today 8:49 AM

4-5 minutes

Auburn Football

Serena Morones, for The Oregonia

Calvin Throckmorton and Shane Lemieux at the Oregon Ducks spring football game, Saturday, April 21, 2018, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Photo by Serena Morones, for The Oregonian/OregonLive. Serena Morones, for The Oregonian/OregonLive

By Tom Green | tgreen@al.com

Auburn’s season opener is still more than a month away, and the Tigers have yet to report for fall camp — but that doesn’t mean they haven’t started scouting and preparing for their neutral-site matchup with Oregon.

The Tigers and Ducks open the season Aug. 31 in Arlington, Texas, in what will be the marquee matchup of Week 1. Perhaps the most anticipated matchup within the matchup will come between Auburn’s highly touted defensive line and Oregon’s much-talked-about offensive line—two units that are widely expected to be, respectively, among the best in the country.

That is not lost on Auburn’s side, where the Tigers’ defensive linemen are already keenly aware of the challenge that awaits them at AT&T Stadium next month.

“You’ve got red flags thrown up, big time,” defensive tackle Derrick Brown said. “You’ve got five returning starters; you’ve got them rated as the best offensive line by a lot of sites…. You’ve got to think, be where your feet are — and this is the first thing you need to worry about going into the 2019 season.”

The Ducks return sophomore left tackle Penei Sewell, senior left guard Shane Lemieux, senior center Jake Hanson, senior right guard Dallas Warmack (a former Alabama transfer) and senior right tackle Calvin Throckmorton. Between the five of them, they have a combined 132 starts along the offensive line.

Sewell was graded as the No. 7 overall tackle in the country last season as a freshman, according to Pro Football Focus analysis, despite appearing in just seven games while missing six due to injury. Warmack, who did not commit a penalty in more than 619 snaps, was rated as the No. 9 guard in the Pac-12, while Lemieux was the top guard in the Pac-12 and No. 3 guard in the nation, according to PFF. Hanson was the No. 2 center in the conference and finished the year with the best pass-blocking grade (84.2) among interior linemen in the Pac-12, and Throckmorton — who started at four different positions in 2018 — was rated as the nation’s No. 7 tackle and the Pac-12’s top offensive lineman (finishing with an 84.0 overall grade), according to PFF.

“They’ve got a lot of hype,” Auburn defensive end Marlon Davidson said. “They’ve got a lot of this and that. But as you see on film, you see them, like, being as good as people say they are. I give them credit. They play good. They play well as a team. I praise them a lot.”

Despite the individual rankings along the line, Oregon’s offensive line ranked below Auburn’s — a unit that generally struggled last season — in six out of nine advanced line stats, according to Football Outsiders.

The Ducks ranked better than the Tigers in power success rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, 2 yards or fewer to go, that resulted in a first down or touchdown), sack rate and passing down sack rate, finishing 20th (79.4 percent), 41st (5.3 percent) and 35th (6.2 percent) nationally in those respective categories.

Still, Auburn isn’t discounting the talent and experience the Ducks will bring to the table Aug. 31, and it’s a season-opening test the Tigers — who believe they have the best defensive line in the SEC and potentially the country this year — are welcoming with open arms.

“I mean, the early impression is that, man, they're great,” Davidson said. “They are, and I mean it's hard to speak on them because, I mean, they show you so many different things. I mean, like, they're a great group together. They're big guys. And all of them are like four, five stars. I mean, just playing against them on a big showcase in Jerry World, I just can’t wait.”

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.

[Stumptown Duck 50]

I don't think we have an enormous advantage with our O-line.

More or less evening the trenches a bit. The biggest difference from what you saw in 2010... though I still think about Fairley.

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 minutes ago, Stumptown Duck said:

I don't think we have an enormous advantage with our O-line.

More or less evening the trenches a bit. The biggest difference from what you saw in 2010... though I still think about Fairley.

We still think about him, too. Like that hot girl with the cheap perfume we dated the summer between high school and freshman year of college. Totally psycho. Totally worth it. 

[Stumptown Duck 50]

6 hours ago, McLoofus said:

We still think about him, too. Like that hot girl with the cheap perfume we dated the summer between high school and freshman year of college. Totally psycho. Totally worth it. 

Then I think this sums it up for the both of us.

 

"I'm very discrete. But I'll haunt your dreams."

 

 

 

[aucanucktiger 1,789]

Neutral site FAR from either school. If stubhub is to be believed there are a lot of decent seats unsold right now. Our fans historically travel well, hoping by kickoff we outnumber them signficantly.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Not to celebrate injuries but the Ducks are gonna be without 3 of their top WRs.  Auburn we know is probably down at least 1(Schwartz) and depending on Stove and Hastings being close to 100% could be hurting too.  Gonna need Hill, Sal, and Farrar to step up.  I expect to see a couple wheel and short passes to JayJay as well.  Nix should be able to spread it around.

[aujeff11 6,243]

4 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Not to celebrate injuries but the Ducks are gonna be without 3 of their top WRs.  Auburn we know is probably down at least 1(Schwartz) and depending on Stove and Hastings being close to 100% could be hurting too.  Gonna need Hill, Sal, and Farrar to step up.  I expect to see a couple wheel and short passes to JayJay as well.  Nix should be able to spread it around.

I agree. Hastings and Stove fully practiced yesterday though. As long as we don’t have step backs, we should be good. 

[DAG 33,955]

13 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Not to celebrate injuries but the Ducks are gonna be without 3 of their top WRs.  Auburn we know is probably down at least 1(Schwartz) and depending on Stove and Hastings being close to 100% could be hurting too.  Gonna need Hill, Sal, and Farrar to step up.  I expect to see a couple wheel and short passes to JayJay as well.  Nix should be able to spread it around.

That’s what I saw and that is suppose to be their strong point. I don’t want to see their QB playing pitch and catch with the reserves. 

[AuCivilEng1 10,995]

If we can pressure they’re QB, I think everything else will be fine and we can win my a couple of scores.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Oregon May have had another WR go down today.  Juwan Johnson went out yesterday and hasn’t returned.  This of course means one thing.  Oregon’s backups will play the game of their lives against Auburn and look like turds the rest of the season.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

3 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Oregon May have had another WR go down today.  Juwan Johnson went out yesterday and hasn’t returned.  This of course means one thing.  Oregon’s backups will play the game of their lives against Auburn and look like turds the rest of the season.

I just drafted him what the H

[McLoofus 35,182]

20 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Oregon May have had another WR go down today.  Juwan Johnson went out yesterday and hasn’t returned.  This of course means one thing.  Oregon’s backups will play the game of their lives against Auburn and look like turds the rest of the season.

I just pray their QB doesn't get hurt because you're exactly right about backups ascending to glory against us. 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

44 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Oregon May have had another WR go down today.  Juwan Johnson went out yesterday and hasn’t returned.  This of course means one thing.  Oregon’s backups will play the game of their lives against Auburn and look like turds the rest of the season.

If so, that’s 4 starting WRs that’ll miss. That’s tough 

was just reading that they’re moving TEs to play WR now because they don’t have enough receivers 

[toddc 13,194]

19 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I just pray their QB doesn't get hurt because you're exactly right about backups ascending to glory against us. 

Always think of Louisville game!

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 minutes ago, toddc said:

Always think of Louisville game!

I'll always remember how angry people were at our DL that game. One Heisman and starting NFL QB job later...

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

7 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I'll always remember how angry people were at our DL that game. One Heisman and starting NFL QB job later...

I remember getting off of work and wondering why Auburn fans were so upset over a win. Didn’t  take me long to figure it out.