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The view from China


japantiger

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Woke up this morning to some of the latest US news hysteria.  The only thing that caught my eye was Trump's statement:

"I am directing the DOJ to work in partnership with local, state, and federal agencies, as well as social media companies, to develop tools that can detect mass shooters before they strike"

I am in the land that assigns a "social score" to everyone so they can determine how good a communist you are so they know how to control you.  They employ millions of security police to keep the trouble makers under control.  All I could think about was this...

See the source image
 
 
Now there's a part of me that thinks if our big out of control inept government can't even do things like prevent 9-11 or the Boston Marathon bomber when the information to prevent it was just dropped into their laps; then my concerns are probably overblown.  It will probably be about as effective as any big IT initiative; you know, Obama-care website, Visa overstay processes, etc.  But what dept or private enterprise group gets to decide what information is relevant?  What dept or private enterprise group gets to decide what "social" comments indicate a threat?  What is private enterprise role in crime detection, period?
 
This is a genie that can't be put back in a bottle.  Suddenly I'm feeling like Minority Report was a documentary; not a movie.  There's a great "Orville" episode on this.  Season 1; Episode 7.  I recommend it.  Way too close to home. 
 
More on China after I finish all my meetings the next few days.  
 
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I share your skepticism of the government being able to address the mental health/gun violence problem without curtailing rights of individuals.  However, maybe there's something meaningful that can be gleaned from analyzing someone's social media presence to help prevent some of these attacks.  Some of the "red flags" proposals by Dan Crenshaw have merit IMHO.  Red Flag Firearms Law

It's worth a try anyway.  The recent info coming out about the Dayton shooter about him keeping "Rape & Kill lists" in his high school days seems like a too obvious kind of red flag.  Sick Bastage

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4 hours ago, AUloggerhead said:

I share your skepticism of the government being able to address the mental health/gun violence problem without curtailing rights of individuals.  However, maybe there's something meaningful that can be gleaned from analyzing someone's social media presence to help prevent some of these attacks.  Some of the "red flags" proposals by Dan Crenshaw have merit IMHO.  Red Flag Firearms Law

It's worth a try anyway.  The recent info coming out about the Dayton shooter about him keeping "Rape & Kill lists" in his high school days seems like a too obvious kind of red flag.  Sick Bastage

  Just like the FL shooting; local authorities had all they needed and did nothing.  This wasn't a social media issue.  It was school and local authorities ignoring a big flashing red light standing in front of them.  Fixing this requires nothing more than grown ups being grown ups.  Deal with tough issues as they arise.

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This trip reflected what I would call the "new normal" in trade relations between the US and China.  All the business leaders I spoke with are:

  • More pessimistic; particularly about the short term (< 1 year).  In general the mood was "this has been going on for 2 years now; it's not changing anytime soon"
  • No one expected a thaw prior to US elections
  • Concerns expressed that I have not heard in a long time on Western companies commitment to China.  I usually get these kind of questions in India or Brazil as their economies swing between "feast or famine" cycles; and frankly, compared to China, they've grossly under-performed their potential due to piss poor leadership.   

From my discussions with other companies across industries; the sentiment that we've reached the point of a "permanent break"  from the old trade/relations regime to a new normal of "China is not the only manufacturing game in town" and "that is ok"  is evident.  The sense of this being "temporary" is the minority view now.  I don't know of a single Tech manufacturing company that has not enabled a separate "US" supply chain now; outside CH in a combination of the US; or Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia; all with more equitable trade terms.  Tariff implementation will dictate how quickly production ramps. Clothing, etc., already had much of their capacity moved spread across the region; they will just shift production around to use the supply chain they had already built.  

Their economy is slowing dramatically (things like smart phones down 50% at Huawei), official GDP down to ~6%; below Party targets (and now really in the 4's based on an honest accounting); and the currency has pushed thru what had been a multi year valuation barrier; now over 7 RMB to 1 USD$. That is a big item in terms of both valuation trends and psychology.   All have spurred the Chinese to prop up the RMB, cut taxes,  lower interest rates and create more debt spending to inflate economic activity.   

The tariff pressure is working.  The Chinese feel it.  Foreign businesses have made the needed adjustments.  There has been no impact on US prices.  Failure to come to terms is a long term loser for China.  

Hong Kong is getting interesting.  I don't see this ending well.  

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Thanks for the assessment JT. our national media would have us believing that there are no alternatives to China for many of the products sold in the US market. Having been in international business myself, find this to be ridiculous that any US company would not have a back-up plan for critical items.

Resistance to price increases also goes for consumers who are not likely to purchase more expensive items from China if alternatives are available. I am of the view that China will end up eating most of the tariff cost and that US companies will make a bigger effort to find alternative suppliers. China is under much more pressure than the MSM it's leading us to believe.

What amazes me is that so many people, apparently suffering from Trump derangement syndrome, seem to be favoring China in this battle of wills.

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Well put 64.    If there were any price increases we'd already see it in the inflation numbers; and we don't.   

This is a huge opportunity for manufacturers anywhere in the world right now.  It's all in play.  I hope this was a large part of the Trump-Modi discussions.  India has a huge opportunity in this; and Modi has a domestic political opportunity by taking in capacity from China.  He's been fighting a(n) (ineffective) trade war with China.  This is if India puts in just a little effort.  Most foreign tech providers have manufacturing in the country but use a fraction of their capacity due to India's tax and tariff policies.   

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