Popular Post StatTiger 3,188 Posted August 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 26, 2019 When Oregon and Auburn take to the field this coming Saturday, the Tigers will have the more talented roster based on recruiting rankings. For those who follow recruiting, it will give you the “warm and fuzzies” but those that value experience and coaching, the rosters could be much closer. Looking at both team’s last four recruiting classes, Auburn has recruited 4-5 star talent, 63.6 percent of the time and Oregon is at a competitive, 43.9 percent. Auburn fans need only to look back at last year’s losses to Tennessee and Mississippi State and know the recruiting rankings meant nothing in those games. When it does come to recruiting rankings, I value the players national ranking more so than star power. Looking at the rosters between Auburn and Purdue, the national player rankings indicated Auburn should dominate the Boilermakers, and they did. Keep in mind Gus Malzahn was aggressive, throwing the football vertically, which allowed Auburn to take advantage of their talent level. With this in mind, I examined the national rankings of each team top-17 players on offense and defense, who most likely will see the most playing time this Saturday night. Comparison: On offense, Auburn will check in at 437.0 and will face an Oregon defense ranked at 413.8. The average rankings are very close with a slight edge in favor of the Ducks. IF the national player rankings hold true, Oregon should hold it’s own against the Auburn offense. In fact, if you take Auburn’s OL vs. Oregon’s front-7, there is a huge difference in favor of the Oregon Ducks. Auburn’s OL checks in at 700.8 vs. Oregon at 451.7 in their front-7. The Duck's advantage here is why coaching and experience need to make up the difference for the Tigers. Auburn’s advantage when on offense will come in the skill players, where Auburn quickly makes up for the talent deficiency upfront. IMO, this means Gus Malzahn will have to be creative in his schemes and play-calling against the Ducks to take advantage of his personnel at the RB, QB and WR positions. On defense, Auburn checks in at 396.2 vs. Oregon’s average ranking of 732.5 on offense. The talent rankings here is a significant talent advantage in favor of the Auburn Tigers should we focus on talent rankings only. Examining the matchup of Auburn’s front-7 against the Oregon OL and it favors Auburn at 237.6 vs. 395.0. These rankings in favor of Auburn is why I believe it will be vital for Oregon to be able to run the football Saturday night. They need to lean on their veteran OL and two solid RB’s to keep their QB on his feet. I believe the Auburn defense has the better shot at keeping the Tigers in the game than Oregon's defense vs. Auburn's offense. Because it is the first game of the season, I see around 40-45 combined points. It could be a similar game to what we witnessed against Washington last season. With that being said, if Auburn can run the football and their defense is dominant, it could be a long night for the Ducks. WDE 5 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Not surprised to see our OL severely weighing down the entire offense with regards to perceived talent level. (Good thing we have depth!) I am surprised, however, that the Duck D ranks that highly. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigerbrotha12 2,362 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Not surprised to see our OL severely weighing down the entire offense with regards to perceived talent level. (Good thing we have depth!) I am surprised, however, that the Duck D ranks that highly. Part of that ranking is because of Kayvon Thibodeaux who was ranked the number one or two prospect out of high school last season (depending on who you ask). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnacle 9,064 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 This is an interesting way of evaluating matchups. It definitely makes more sense than looking solely at stars. For instance, looking at the 247 composite player rankings this year, the highest rated 4-star OT is the 37th ranked player nationally and number 3 at his position. The lowest rates 4 star tackle is ranked 26th at his position and 345th nationally. That's a pretty big spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerOne 1,113 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Oh boy same story different season. IMO, this means Gus Malzahn will have to be creative in his schemes and play-calling against the Ducks to take advantage of his personnel at the RB, QB and WR positions. Gus has very rarely used all of his weapons. If Auburn loses it will be because of coaching, turnovers and dumb penalties. Will Auburn be prepared to win or will the approach be, oh well, we like where we are at, and can still win the west . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, TigerOne said: Oh boy same story different season. IMO, this means Gus Malzahn will have to be creative in his schemes and play-calling against the Ducks to take advantage of his personnel at the RB, QB and WR positions. Gus has very rarely used all of his weapons. If Auburn loses it will be because of coaching, turnovers and dumb penalties. Will Auburn be prepared to win or will the approach be, oh well, we like where we are at, and can still win the west . This is from a feature I wrote for ITAT... Examining the success of the 2010, 2013 and 2017 Auburn offenses, the rate of explosive plays (15+ yards) is the common denominator along with a consistent running game. Great offenses have playmakers, but it requires scheming to obtain the most of the offensive personnel. Over the past 30 years of Auburn football, only four have finished the season with six players totaling at least ten impact plays during the season. The 1996, 2010, 2013 and 2017 Auburn offenses were successful in distributing the football to their skill players, making it difficult for the opposing defenses to focus on just 2-3 key players. Three of the four teams had a mobile quarterback, something Gus Malzahn appreciates as a play-caller. “I will tell you this about our quarterbacks. Our quarterbacks will be a run threat,” said Malzahn during SEC media days. “And when you have a run threat at quarterback, it really does change things from a defensive standpoint. And from a play-caller standpoint, it gives you a lot more flexibility, too.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Barnacle said: This is an interesting way of evaluating matchups. It definitely makes more sense than looking solely at stars. For instance, looking at the 247 composite player rankings this year, the highest rated 4-star OT is the 37th ranked player nationally and number 3 at his position. The lowest rates 4 star tackle is ranked 26th at his position and 345th nationally. That's a pretty big spread. Of the top-17 players on offense expected to play a major role this Saturday and the top-17 from defense, Auburn has 8 players on offense ranked in the nation's top-200 best players and 7 on defense. Oregon has 3 on offense and 6 on defense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aucanucktiger 1,784 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 Interesting tidbit, Malzahn's first ever game as a college head coach was against the Ducks, Arkansas State lost 57 - 34 to #5 Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle79 3,569 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 I hope Gus has his creativity and aggressive play calling back and utilizes all our weapons on offense. Having said that, and I don't know if this is the correct thread for it, but after watching the Miami - Florida game, my head may explode if Oregon runs a successful fake punt, fake field goal, or onside kickoff against us. Hopefully, that got the coaches attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbird 60,292 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 3 hours ago, aucanucktiger said: Interesting tidbit, Malzahn's first ever game as a college head coach was against the Ducks, Arkansas State lost 57 - 34 to #5 Oregon. If he can score 34 with Arkansas St... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Win4AU 4,044 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 48 minutes ago, bigbird said: If he can score 34 with Arkansas St... “No Doubt” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilligas 581 Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, Win4AU said: “No Doubt” "And everything that goes with it." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au701948 989 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 I am hoping that Auburn takes advantage of every bit of talent edge we may have. Here is hoping that CGM and Staff have prepared the team as well and as completely as they did leading up to last year's Bowl Game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUsince72 11,084 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 (edited) 22 hours ago, bigbird said: If he can score 34 with Arkansas St... 21 hours ago, Win4AU said: “No Doubt” 20 hours ago, dilligas said: "And everything that goes with it." "I'm not ready to say..." Edited August 27, 2019 by AUsince72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtclarkjr 2 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 The intangibles.. 1) No matter the talent or potential, Bo Nix has never played on the national stage. He is a freshman and there will be freshman mistakes at critical times. He will learn and get better, but that is important to remember. 2) Who wants it worse. Regardless of stars and rankings, we play the game on the field and not on paper. I can't wait to see this Defense rule the college gridiron! War Eagle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle Eye 7 2,535 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 I agree that talent is important but I also believe an experience senior 3 star might actually be better than an inexperienced sophomore 4 star. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle Eye 7 2,535 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Also wanting it is good but you also have to be smart and take what’s given. Some time with inexperience you can try to hard. Boobie was a good example last year. I agree with Cadillac that he left a lot of yards on the field outrunning his blockers. This year he will be much better. Same with Nix and Joey. They can’t try to do it all. They got to trust their teammates. Some of Jarrett’s problem last year was not trusting his teammates and being a little more patient. I think they will all do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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