Trust Auburn’s defense

[aubiefifty 16,736]

............... 4-point underdogs at Texas A&M

Updated Sep 17, 2019; Posted Sep 17, 2019

5-7 minutes

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The SEC features three College Football Playoff contenders and three teams that can get into that conversation by collecting wins.

Two of those three teams, Auburn (3-0) and Texas A&M (2-1), meet Saturday in College Station. Later, both teams must face the SEC’s three clear-cut national contenders: Alabama, Georgia and LSU.

Saturday’s loser will not represent the SEC West in Atlanta, while the winner at least retains hope.

As of Tuesday evening, oddsmakers listed Auburn as a 4-point road underdog. That suggests that Texas A&M will win nearly 60 percent of the time. But is that accurate?

Everyone has a different theory on adjusting for home-field advantage. In college football, I think it’s rare that a school deserves more than a field-goal adjustment.

Even if you give Texas A&M an extra 3.5 points, the current betting line suggests the Aggies are at least a half-point better than Auburn on a neutral field.

My power rankings have Auburn-Texas A&M as a pick’em on a neutral field. SP+ would make Auburn a 4-point favorite and FPI would make Auburn a 1.9-point favorite on a neutral field.

If there’s any edge in this game, it’s probably Auburn’s defense, which is a little better than Texas A&M’s, especially if Derrick Brown (upper body injury) is effective.

Let’s break down the three phases of this game.

Don’t trust Texas A&M’s paper tiger running game

Texas A&M’s rushing numbers look great on paper, but not so great upon inspection.

The Aggies rushed for 246 yards on 6.8 yards per carry against Texas State, but Texas State also allowed SMU to rush for 390 yards on 7.0 yards per carry. The Aggies also rushed for 223 yards against Lamar, but the Cardinals rank 60th in the FCS in Bill Connelly’s SP+.

Clemson and Auburn have similar defenses. Texas A&M’s running backs carried 20 times for 58 yards against Clemson -- 2.9 yards per carry.

Texas A&M starting running back Jashaun Corbin since has suffered a season-ending injury.

Against Auburn, running backs have averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Tulane and Kent State, with offenses that feature quarterback runs, fared slightly better on those plays (4.4 ypc).

Kellen Mond can run a little, but he’s only carried 4.7 times per game (as opposed to 11.5 in 2018).

Texas A&M’s run defense is good. The Aggies held Clemson to 3.7 yards per carry. Defensive tackle is a position of strength.

But Auburn won’t always run power between the tackles after a slow huddle. And JaTarvious Whitlow (341 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry) will be the best back on the field Saturday.

Edge: Lean to Auburn

Will Kellen Mond or Bo Nix make the big mistake?

Jimbo Fisher has a history of maximizing quarterback production, often by putting the player into a daily pressure cooker until he improves or flames out.

Prior to the season, I figured Mond, who has intermittently flashed All-SEC skills, would get more consistent. That has not been the case. Mond has thrown at least one interception in 10 of his last 13 games and does not make good decisions when pressured.

Texas A&M has a deep group of passing targets, remnants of Kevin Sumlin’s spread offense. Auburn’s secondary did well against Oregon’s Justin Herbert, a potential NFL first-round pick. But Oregon was operating with a makeshift group of receivers. Texas A&M will trot out a better group.

Auburn’s receivers are closer to Texas A&M’s than the preseason magazine rankings and early stats indicate. Anthony Schwartz (hand) is just getting to full strength, and Seth Williams (shoulder) returned to practice Tuesday.

The Aggies did a nice job against Clemson’s passing game, as Trevor Lawrence finished with 268 yards and one touchdown. True freshman Bo Nix, entering his first road start, has shown upside but has struggled with accuracy (only a 52.4 percent completion rate).

Good luck trying to ascertain whether it will be Mond, Nix or both that makes a crippling mistake. It’ll probably decide the outcome.

Edge: Toss-up

Texas A&M’s special teams ace

Texas A&M (No. 25) and Auburn (No. 40) are separated by a thin margin in the SP+ special teams rankings.

The Aggies have Braden Mann, who won the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s best punter in 2018 by averaging 51.0 yards.

Edge: Lean to Texas A&M

Why I’m betting Auburn +4

This is more of a toss-up than the line indicates. If turnovers become a factor, the team with a positive margin is likely to win.

Texas A&M deserves to be the favorite, but by less than a field goal.

Three is a key number in football betting. The difference between Texas A&M -2.5 and Texas A&M -4 is much, much greater than, for example, the difference between Alabama -56 and Alabama -54.5 against New Mexico State.

Texas A&M’s offense also lost tight end Baylor Cupp for the season. Cupp was supposed to be the replacement for Jace Sternberger, a third-round NFL pick. The tight end position is vital in Fisher’s offense, and he does not have the right personnel there.

Also, for whatever reason, Auburn’s offense under Gus Malzahn tends to get better as the season goes along. Those subtle factors may provide me another half-point of line value.

In a tossup game, getting more than a field goal, I’ll take Auburn and the points.

Final score: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 23.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.

[Zeek 16,638]

17 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

Don’t trust Texas A&M’s paper tiger running game

This. Look at their competition and the fact that they lost their true #1 RB for the season; I watched that kid during the Clemson game and he was phenomenal but unfortunately they announced after the game that he's likely out for the year (Corbin, had to look up his name).

My biggest concern is that the defense comes out flat like they have every game this year. We can't afford to give up an early easy drive. I believe our offense will struggle to much for us to give up points because we're flat and out of sync. We need to come out firing and try to keep the lead in this game instead of chasing from behind. I don't want to see Bo Nix in a situation where he's forcing passes to win the game.

Side note: yay for my 4,400 post

[ShocksMyBrain 9,362]

3.5 points for being at home. 

[Newbomb 193]

I would argue with the correct circumstances that either team could lose and still run the table and be in the SEC championship game.

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

I feel like the defense will do its part. A&M will focus on stopping the run so as many have said it will come down to making plays in the passing game. Our defense can be bend but not break sometimes but I’m at a point where I just expect them to show up big. And thats how it should be with Auburn.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Our defense has to dominate. 

[AUpreacherman22 3,882]

I’m not that impressed with TA&M, but I think their run D will cause us major problems and I don’t expect Gus to make adjustments.  

I believe our D will give them fits, but they’ll make enough plays to beat us.   Special teams could also be a major factor.  They have an edge there too.  

[leglessdan 1,934]

Our D needs to have a coming out party if we want a chance to win. I think they're ready.

[Sizzle 3,909]

Time for the defense to create more turnovers. Need some interceptions

[AUBwins 10,070]

Not sure how bad A&M beat Texas State,  but UL Lafayette just skull drug those same Texas State Bobcats 77-6 where the only possession not resulting in a Touchdown was the final kneel down while in red zone.  

[WFE12 9,191]

Need to stop getting off to such bad starts. By the looks of it Texas aTm will march down the field. Lock em up first drive. Apply the pressure...I don't care who it is.. somebody has to get to Mond.

[cctiger 571]

I fairly well trust the D. It's the O that I just cannot trust completely. Unlike Orgero-n, who some say is a better coach, and even Dabo, Gus has not surrounded himself with quality O coaches like they have. He's a control freak on the O side of the ball. There are quality coaches on the D side, but just from an outsider looking in, how many of the coaches that Gus has on the O are good proven quality coaches? It's CGM's O and I don't think that he wants anybody to dispute him or have too much of an influence on that side of the ball. He has an ego problem when it comes to running the O.His way or no way, his plan or no plan. I feel though he does not want anybody to receive any credit for the success of the O but him. He's afraid to let go and for someone else to implement their plan on whatever position they are coaching.  I may be dead wrong, but that's the way I view it just from an outsider looking in. It's his way. and only his way, or the highway. To me, I think we need a better O line coach, receiver coach, and quarterback coach. Jury is still out on running back coach just simply because of the lack of experience. I think that was Gus' problem with Hand. He just wanted Hand to coach the O line and Hand was giving some suggestions and offering his view on how the O could operate better with the personal that they had. And mind you, I was not a fan of coach Hand. Gus is just too predictable with the O, and he's not going to let anybody come in and question him, or try to change a dadgum thing about the way he see's his O operating, or with the play-calling. or even question him about the play-calling.