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StatTiger

Bye-Week Thoughts

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Not sure how you feel that the offense has yet to reach it's full potential? This is the same OL we had last year, and while it seems to be adequate in pass blocking, we are not rushing the ball any better against the P5 teams. 

And while that can be helped by better passing schemes and using the sure hands and speed of their 3 quickest players(Schwartz, Stove, & Hastings) with higher % slants and drags and clearouts...that will help Nix...and possibly the running game too.

But again the key is does Gus have the ability to create those schemes or if he has them, to call them during the best times during a game against the LSU, GA, Ala defenses...

After all these years...I am having trouble seeing the improvement coming...

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8 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

Being happy with 8-4 or 9-3 is the problem...

It's not about happiness but reality for 2019. Did you believe this team was going to win 10+ games this season facing this schedule?

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6 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

It's not about happiness but reality for 2019. Did you believe this team was going to win 10+ games this season facing this schedule?

No ... but at $7M/yr in year No. 7 ... I think 10-wins is fair baseline expectations, regardless of the schedule.  I get your point; I just don't like the reality of our situation .. .it feels like we've gotten numbed into "accepting" or at least, rationalizing, 8-4 types seasons.

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Bo can't keep staring down the first read on a pass. He did it on the first INT when Eli Stove was open for a touchdown and he did it on the second INT when he should have thrown it into the stands.

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24 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

Not sure how you feel that the offense has yet to reach it's full potential? This is the same OL we had last year, and while it seems to be adequate in pass blocking, we are not rushing the ball any better against the P5 teams. 

And while that can be helped by better passing schemes and using the sure hands and speed of their 3 quickest players(Schwartz, Stove, & Hastings) with higher % slants and drags and clearouts...that will help Nix...and possibly the running game too.

But again the key is does Gus have the ability to create those schemes or if he has them, to call them during the best times during a game against the LSU, GA, Ala defenses...

After all these years...I am having trouble seeing the improvement coming...

Yes we are running the ball better against Power-5 teams than last season. Last year through the first 4 Power-5 games, Auburn averaged 114.5 yards rushing on 3.3 yards per attempt. This season it is 185.0 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. Not saying Auburn has arrived but it is indeed improvement. Easy to see why Auburn has not reached it's sealing because it has only been three games that Nix had Schwartz and Williams available. Nix and Schwartz had limited time to develop chemistry because Schwartz was not available in the spring and he injured his finger before the season began. Unless there are key injuries, I would wager the offense performs better than the 2018 offense to close out the regular season. It might not result in victories over LSU, Georgia and Alabama but it will still be improvement.

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2 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

No ... but at $7M/yr in year No. 7 ... I think 10-wins is fair baseline expectations, regardless of the schedule.  I get your point; I just don't like the reality of our situation .. .it feels like we've gotten numbed into "accepting" or at least, rationalizing, 8-4 types seasons.

Which is why I noted that "Year Seven" is a whole different discussion.

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Hmm...

Gus is even polarizing the most even keel of mods.

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2 hours ago, StatTiger said:

I would like to see Malzahn’s primary focus on sustaining drives rather than setting up the “wow” play.

So you're basically expecting him to do a 180 degree change in his offensive philosophy?  I'm not gonna hold my breath on that one. 

Downhill run, play action team.  Dive/buck sweep/zone read/sugar huddle, screen/jet sweep/reverse, PA deep slow developing route. Rinse and repeat.

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11 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

So you're basically expecting him to do a 180 degree change in his offensive philosophy?  I'm not gonna hold my breath on that one. 

Downhill run, play action team.  Dive/buck sweep/zone read/sugar huddle, screen/jet sweep/reverse, PA deep slow developing route. Rinse and repeat.

I seriously doubt Malzahn is reading my content, so no I don't expect anything. I do look back to the Mississippi State game, where he did place focus on the intermediate routes and the offense was very successful in doing so. With that being said, Nix had a much cleaner pocket to work from. He was also very successful with the intermediate routes during 2009 and 2010.

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4 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

I seriously doubt Malzahn is reading my content,

Someone should mail it to him. Seriously.

4 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

He was also very successful with the intermediate routes during 2009

I still have vivid memories of Todd overthrowing a wide open Trott (I think) in the middle of the field on back to back plays on the last series against Bama. (Or maybe the series before they took the lead)

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10 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

Someone should mail it to him. Seriously.

I still have vivid memories of Todd overthrowing a wide open Trott (I think) in the middle of the field on back to back plays on the last series against Bama. (Or maybe the series before they took the lead)

That was bad indeed. We had to make those plays to take down the turds that year. I think it was the series before all the rub-routes.

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3 hours ago, WalkingCarpet said:

Bo can't keep staring down the first read on a pass. He did it on the first INT when Eli Stove was open for a touchdown and he did it on the second INT when he should have thrown it into the stands.

Something Jeremy Johnson did

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Interesting to see the pass efficiency is better this year with a freshmen QB over last year with a veteran QB in the NFL.    

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4 hours ago, StatTiger said:

It's not about happiness but reality for 2019. Did you believe this team was going to win 10+ games this season facing this schedule?

If you would have asked me preseason, I would have said no.   

Now sitting at 5-0 and playing Florida with a backup QB and getting 5 turnovers, I would say ten wins was very likely.   

Here is my opinion on the matter,  CGM has handicapped this team by not playing JG.  From what was being said and put out, was that the competition was very close and a starter wasn’t selected until a week prior to first game.   That tells me that both QB’s have something to give to the team.   JG should be getting one or two possessions per quarter.   CGM has not proven in seven seasons that he knows how to handle a roster.   I’ve only seen the kid for a couple of runs and I can see that DJ Williams is the best running back on the team.   

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1 hour ago, ToomersStreet said:

Something Jeremy Johnson did

Yep.... just like HS QB’s, college QB’s and NFL QB’s. See it in the NFL every week and how interceptions are the result of the QB staring down his receiver. Tom Brady is guilty of it on occasion. Does Nix need to improve on limiting it? Of course he does but it won’t be the last time he does it. It’s not like it just happens at Auburn. 

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1 hour ago, ToomersStreet said:

Bo can't keep staring down the first read on a pass. He did it on the first INT when Eli Stove was open for a touchdown and he did it on the second INT when he should have thrown it into the stands.

If you go back and watch the play,  Malik Miller was wide open on a check down to the right and he would have walked into the end zone

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4 hours ago, RunInRed said:

No ... but at $7M/yr in year No. 7 ... I think 10-wins is fair baseline expectations, regardless of the schedule. 

I think that the "regardless of schedule" bit makes your "fair baseline expectation" pretty close to insane.  I doubt there are more than a few teams that could go through the schedule AU has this year with any sort of reasonable expectation of winning 10. Hoping to win 10? Sure. Reasonable (baseline) expectation? Nope. 

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26 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

If you would have asked me preseason, I would have said no.   

Now sitting at 5-0 and playing Florida with a backup QB and getting 5 turnovers, I would say ten wins was very likely.   

Here is my opinion on the matter,  CGM has handicapped this team by not playing JG.  From what was being said and put out, was that the competition was very close and a starter wasn’t selected until a week prior to first game.   That tells me that both QB’s have something to give to the team.   JG should be getting one or two possessions per quarter.   CGM has not proven in seven seasons that he knows how to handle a roster.   I’ve only seen the kid for a couple of runs and I can see that DJ Williams is the best running back on the team.   

You can chose to believe what has been publicly stated about the QB competition but logic might prevail in this case. Do you believe Malzahn would publicly state that Gatewood struggled during the competition and Nix was simply better beyond any doubt? 

Ask yourself this question. Malzahn coached one of the greatest college QB’s ever that made him a super star as an OC and led him to a National Title and Heisman. Cam’s abilities made his job easier and made most plays called golden. If Gatewood was half the QB Cam was, do you really believe he would not start him? Look at how many project QB’s Auburn has signed trying to find the next Nick Marshall or Cam Newton. Let’s not forget that Gatewood was not even a full time starter in HS. 

 

  He may very well end up being the starter down the road but those wanting to see him play now, are doing so in hope that he will be the answer or magical. This includes myself but primarily because I want to see how he looks under the bright lights. 

 

  As for D.J. Williams, you just might be right but he has been slowed by injuries. The coaches are high on him and I’ve been told he will get a long look in the Arkansas game. As for knowing he is the best based on a few carries in mop up duty against reserves... I personally would need to see him the majority of a season before crowning him.

 

2 cents

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10 minutes ago, CleCoTiger said:

I think that the "regardless of schedule" bit makes your "fair baseline expectation" pretty close to insane.  I doubt there are more than a few teams that could go through the schedule AU has this year with any sort of reasonable expectation of winning 10. Hoping to win 10? Sure. Reasonable (baseline) expectation? Nope. 

The Florida game was very important to get 9 wins much easier, then win 1 of LSU, UGA, bama and you have 10. Now we have to win 1 of those 3 to get 9. It is SO important to win the games you should win before counting the big 3.

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3 minutes ago, IronMan70 said:

The Florida game was very important to get 9 wins much easier, then win 1 of LSU, UGA, bama and you have 10. Now we have to win 1 of those 3 to get 9. It is SO important to win the games you should win before counting the big 3.

I totally agree. The Florida loss feels like the last two losses to LSU.

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@StatTiger I think whats most frustrating is the intermediate game point. It wasnt until late in the game when we went across the middle. We also went for it on fourth and long with essentially a hail mary and no underneath route. I get having a guy take the safety off the top, but we have enough diverse talent to able to run hust about any passing scheme you could want. 

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Thanks so much for all your analysis! Always good to hear a voice of reason, amongst all the crazies!

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1 hour ago, StatTiger said:

Ask yourself this question. Malzahn coached one of the greatest college QB’s ever that made him a super star as an OC and led him to a National Title and Heisman. Cam’s abilities made his job easier and made most plays called golden. If Gatewood was half the QB Cam was, do you really believe he would not start him?

@StatTiger. You do remember the confidence CGM once had in JJ, and the disaster that turned out to be. I personally do not have confidence in CGM's ability to evaluate, recruit, recognize, and develop players. I suspect he knows that he is not good at these things and that is why only (18) players got into the game on offense against Florida. I am hopeful that he made the correct choice between Bo and JG, but I do not have great faith that he did so.

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