Bye-Week Thoughts

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

7 minutes ago, Mike4AU said:

FWIW, the buyout this year is $26.6 mil and drops to $21.4 next year.  Pathetic administration!

I’ve heard it’s lower than that after the “no changes contract” that Gus swears he didn’t make. He would get 8 when fired and 8 paid out over the next 3 years after that.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Eagle Eye 7

[aubaseball 2,591]

16 hours ago, StatTiger said:

You can chose to believe what has been publicly stated about the QB competition but logic might prevail in this case. Do you believe Malzahn would publicly state that Gatewood struggled during the competition and Nix was simply better beyond any doubt? 

Ask yourself this question. Malzahn coached one of the greatest college QB’s ever that made him a super star as an OC and led him to a National Title and Heisman. Cam’s abilities made his job easier and made most plays called golden. If Gatewood was half the QB Cam was, do you really believe he would not start him? Look at how many project QB’s Auburn has signed trying to find the next Nick Marshall or Cam Newton. Let’s not forget that Gatewood was not even a full time starter in HS. 

 

  He may very well end up being the starter down the road but those wanting to see him play now, are doing so in hope that he will be the answer or magical. This includes myself but primarily because I want to see how he looks under the bright lights. 

 

  As for D.J. Williams, you just might be right but he has been slowed by injuries. The coaches are high on him and I’ve been told he will get a long look in the Arkansas game. As for knowing he is the best based on a few carries in mop up duty against reserves... I personally would need to see him the majority of a season before crowning him.

 

2 cents

I completely understand the QB situation.   As far as when Cam was at AU, I don’t recall there ever being a situation of third and short and not getting a first down.   

As much as the loss to Florida hurt the season, I was more upset that on 3rd and one, we ran the same play numerous times . This is just me, but I do not believe that anyone could stop JG if Auburn lined up in two tight end  set with two lead blockers that Gatewood could not get a yard.   

And as far as JG not starting in HS, neither did the guy that just beat AU.   

[Mike4AU 1,739]

51 minutes ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

I’ve heard it’s lower than that after the “no changes contract” that Gus swears he didn’t make. He would get 8 when fired and 8 paid out over the next 3 years after that.

Hope so

[IronMan70 3,277]

21 hours ago, CleCoTiger said:

Not disputing that at all. Just commenting on the idea that with AU's annual schedule being what it is that 10 wins is the baseline.  If 10 is the baseline, AU has never in its history had a head coach that makes the grade. With LSU, UGA, Bama (and now aTm) annually, plus the occasional year when one or both of the Mississippi schools puts together a good team, plus the years (like this one) where we play the Gators, plus the possibility that UT will be good again, well...I just think that 10 wins as a baseline is not realistic in terms of history or expectations.

I agree and my own baseline is 9, anything less is average and unacceptable. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by IronMan70

[StatTiger 3,188]

2 hours ago, triangletiger said:

The other side of that coin is Tennessee.  You better know what you're doing and have a plan in place if/when you decide to make a change.  I'm no Gus apologist, but things could certainly be a lot worse.

Thanks to all who managed to stay on topic and the follow up discussion. Hope the remainder of the season goes well for everyone.

 

War Eagle!

[tigeraddikt 1,599]

2 hours ago, triangletiger said:

The other side of that coin is Tennessee.  You better know what you're doing and have a plan in place if/when you decide to make a change.  I'm no Gus apologist, but things could certainly be a lot worse.

Preaching truth right here. What would the posters who are now clamoring for Gus's head do/say if they got their wish, only for AU to end up striking out on a coach or 2 and being left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years?

[oracle79 3,569]

16 minutes ago, tigeraddikt said:

Preaching truth right here. What would the posters who are now clamoring for Gus's head do/say if they got their wish, only for AU to end up striking out on a coach or 2 and being left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years?

You hire another coach. Or be a loser and drop the sport. Who was the last coach we hired that didn't have at least one great year? Earl Brown?

[Swamp Eagle 5,131]

On 10/7/2019 at 3:05 PM, StatTiger said:

Moving into the bye-week, Coach Gus Malzahn stated the week off will allow the coaches to evaluate where they are to prepare for the grind of the remaining schedule. The majority of the self-scouting process will likely come on the offensive side of the football after the offensive struggles in Gainesville. With this in mind, here are some statistical bullet-points that are of concern through six games.

The intermediate passing game needs to be examined based on current results. Tossing out the Mississippi State game, Auburn has completed 30.4 percent of its passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. The MSU game, for now, appears to be the anomaly as Auburn’s quarterbacks will likely face similar pressure against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama as they did against Florida. Bo Nix won’t have the comfortable pocket he had against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss Rebels have been sound against the run and will likely scheme to force Auburn to pass to move the football. The bye-week is coming at the right time, preventing the Tigers from suffering from a hangover going into the Arkansas game. Gus Malzahn must avoid the type of losses the Tigers suffered against Mississippi State and Tennessee last season.

Since conference play began, Seth Williams has been Auburn’s most targeted receiver with 24, resulting in 287-yards and four touchdowns. Eli Stove is next with ten targets, which has translated to 58-yards. Will Hastings is third with eight targets, netting 38-yards. Anthony Schwartz is tied with Will Hastings in targets for 97-yards. What happens if opposing teams elect to blanket Seth Williams, especially on third-down? Other than utilizing Stove and Schwartz on speed-sweeps, screens, and the deep ball, there has been little no scheming to target the speedsters in the intermediate game. Anthony Schwartz has proven he can be a major impact player, yet he averages just three offensive touches per game. On 59 career touches, Schwartz has totaled 28 first downs, 18 impact plays, and nine touchdowns. Opposing teams have adjusted to the speed-sweeps and deep passes, which means Malzahn must find a way of making sure he touches the football by other means schematically.

The same issue applies to Eli Stove. He has 122 career offensive touches that have netted 46 first downs, 22 impact plays, and six touchdowns. Stove has 75 career receptions for only 9.3 yards per reception. He has been pigeonholed into the speed-sweep / screen role, which quality opposing defenses will take away. If his current role remains the same, it will be a waste of talent and experience against Auburn's primary rivals. During his ten previous games against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama combined, Stove has 29 offensive touches for 266-yards, zero touchdowns, and only five impact plays. Against Florida, this season, Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove accounted for 10-yards of total offense. As much as the two are on the field, Auburn cannot afford to continue utilizing them, in the same manner, moving forward. How difficult would it be to isolate either receiver on a linebacker or safety by shifting or motion?

Bo Nix is a true freshman, but Auburn is six games into his first collegiate season. Ten other freshman quarterbacks across the country are rated higher in efficiency than Nix, but no other that has played the schedule Nix has faced. There should be no surprise Bo Nix is experiencing growing pains as a true freshman, but Gus Malzahn is responsible for placing Nix in the best possible situation to succeed. Reaching this goal will be difficult, with the running game still a work in progress. Auburn has averaged 149.7 yards rushing per game against ranked SEC teams from 2017-2019, on 3.9 yards per attempt. The Tigers scored an average of 21 points per game, which won’t likely be enough to beat the likes of LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. During this bye-week, Malzahn and his offensive staff must find the ability to run more consistently and to mix up the offense enough to limit the stress on their freshman quarterback. How efficient can Auburn become running the football before the LSU game?

Auburn’s previous plan of attack won’t be any more successful this season against the better defensive teams in the conference. From 2013-2019, Auburn has been held to under 200-yards rushing against 14 ranked SEC teams. Auburn threw the football within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage slightly over 50 percent of the time, for 5.2 yards per attempt. Auburn completed 32 percent of their passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage for eight interceptions and six touchdowns. Auburn totaled 177.7 yards passing per game, and thirteen touchdown passes for an average of 18.6 points per game. Based on what we have seen of the current running-game, it is not likely Auburn will run for over 200-yards against LSU, Georgia, or Alabama. Should Auburn struggle running the football, Malzahn’s previous passing strategy against good SEC defenses won’t put many points on the scoreboard. For an offense that schemes to run the football to set up the big pass-play, Auburn has totaled thirteen plays of 30+ yards in eleven games against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Five of those big plays came in one game, leaving eight during the twelve remaining games.

In fairness to the 2019 Auburn Tigers, this team was not expected to win the SEC-West, and most media outlets projected Auburn to win six to eight games this season. Auburn should be favored in three of their last six regular-season games. Capitalize on those three games, and Auburn is assured of an 8-4 regular season and the opportunity to win a ninth game during their bowl game. This team has good leadership and an excellent defense, which gives them a fighting chance in the three games they will likely be considered underdogs. Steal one of the three big games remaining and Auburn could be looking at a 10-win season, exceeding preseason expectations. Even a 9-4 finish would be considered an improvement over last season. Whether it is good enough in year No. 7 is a different discussion. For now, the focus should be on this team and how much they can improve over the next seven weeks. Auburn could lose all three big conference games remaining, but if Auburn were competitive in defeat, it would still be an indication of improvement.

How can Auburn improve its running game for the remainder of the season? Personnel changes might help, which would include modifications on the offensive line and the use of another primary running back other than JaTarvious Whitlow. The current plan of saving Whitlow for the second-half is not working. The lack of a commitment to the running game early on has hurt the consistency of the offense. Though Whitlow has been more successful running during the second half, the improvement is not enough to beat teams like LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Kam Martin and Shaun Shivers have averaged 3.5 yards per rush against Power-5 competition, a yard less than Whitlow’s 4.5 average. Auburn needs to involve D.J. Williams moving forward in an attempt to have an actual one-two punch in the running game. Being committed to the running game for only one-half goes against Malzahn’s offensive philosophy. Tossing out the Kent State game, Auburn has run the football 49 percent in the first half and 71 percent during the second half.

Auburn has converted only 64 percent of their running plays to convert a first-down, facing 2-yards or less in conference play. Auburn's conversion rate of 77 percent from 2015-2018, reveals the level of concern in short-yardage situations this season. Joey Gatewood not being called upon against Florida in short-yardage situations might have been a tactical mistake. He has primarily been utilized in the red zone this season, which might explain his absence against the Gators, as Auburn made only one trip into the red zone. Auburn is 4 of 9 in short-yardage running the past two games, and it might be time to expand Gatewood’s role in the offense to assist in sustaining drives. For that matter, it might not be a bad idea to give Gatewood a series on his own to force the competition into additional preparation. I doubt this will happen, but he certainly needs a look in short-yardage situations and deep inside the red zone. As long as Bo Nix continues to run the read-option, he needs to be directed to turn upfield as soon as possible. He doesn’t possess the speed to stretch a run outside towards the sideline, and a three to four-yard gain is better than no gain at all.

At the current rate of improvement on offense, Auburn’s focus should be on personnel and execution. I would like to see Malzahn’s primary focus on sustaining drives rather than setting up the “wow” play. Auburn is currently converting 36 percent of their third-downs against Power-5 competition. From 2013-2019, Auburn is 9-19 in games with a third-down conversion rate below 40 percent, averaging 333-yards and 21 points per game. Against top-25 defenses, Auburn is 2-14, with an average of 280-yards and 16 points per game. If Auburn can become more consistent on third-down, the explosive plays will come. Auburn averages three 30-plus and nine 15-plus plays per game with at least a 40 percent conversion rate on third-down. When the conversion rate drops under 40 percent, the big play average drops to 1.5 per game, and six impact plays per game. For Auburn to improve their efficiency on third-down, the Tigers must execute better and Malzahn must be more creative in play-calling as well as schemes.

Auburn’s third-down woes were a carry-over from last season when the offense survived on whether or not they could generate the big play. Auburn produced only three plays of 30+ yards during 3 of 13 games last season. The 2019 Auburn offense already has three such games this season, but this offense isn’t explosive enough to rely on the big plays every game. The lack of production on third-down has trickled down to a scoring percentage of 35 percent, which needs to be well above 40 percent. Auburn is going “3 & out” 37 percent of the time, which needs to be under 25 percent. Auburn is averaging 26.8 yards per possession, which needs to be 35-yards per possession. Again, this team was not expected to win a championship this season, but offensive improvement was expected. Through six games, there has been a significant improvement on offense this season.

Through Six Games:

Points per game ……….…......... 33.8 (2019) …….....….... 28.6 (2018)
Rush yard per game ….......... 229.8 (2019) ……......…. 163.8 (2018)
Pass-efficiency ………..........…. 129.3 (2019) ………........ 126.6 (2018)
Yards per game ……….........…. 423.5 (2019) ……......…. 364.2 (2018)
3rd down percentage …...….. 44 percent (2019) ….. 33 percent (2018)
1st down yards per play …... 6.15 (2019) ……….......... 6.26 (2018)
Scoring Percentage …….....… 40 percent (2019) …... 34 percent (2018)
RZ TD Percentage …….......…. 68 percent (2019) …... 56 percent (2018)
Yards per possession …...…. 30.6 yards (2019) …... 27.7 yards (2018)
TD Ratio …………….........…......… 16.5 (2019 ) ……….......... 22.6 (2018)

The only category that showed no improvement was yards per play on first down, which was nearly identical. Is the development enough to upset LSU, Georgia, or Alabama? Not likely but it remains a notable improvement on offense. I do believe the offense has yet to reach its full potential, which means there is continued room for improvement. The question is, how much of this potential can Gus Malzahn convert into results on the playing field?

Around the SEC:

#3 Georgia over South Carolina
Mississippi State over Tennessee
#1 Alabama over #24 Texas A&M
Vanderbilt over UNLV
Missouri over Ole Miss
Kentucky over Arkansas
#5 LSU over #7 Florida

War Eagle!

This information is of no use if a copy isn't already sitting on Gus' desk...

[ChltteTiger 649]

3 hours ago, oracle79 said:

You hire another coach. Or be a loser and drop the sport. Who was the last coach we hired that didn't have at least one great year? Earl Brown?

Barfield

[ChltteTiger 649]

2 hours ago, Swamp Eagle said:

This information is of no use if a copy isn't already sitting on Gus' desk...

Would Gus even read it?🥺

[Swamp Eagle 5,131]

12 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

Barfield

1979 was Barfield's best year. Went 8-3 and took eventual NC Alabama well into the 4th Q before losing 25-18.  Barfield did a remarkable job IMO considering all that was against him.

[McLoofus 35,182]

18 hours ago, tigeraddikt said:

Preaching truth right here. What would the posters who are now clamoring for Gus's head do/say if they got their wish, only for AU to end up striking out on a coach or 2 and being left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years?

I'd say at least we tried and I'm glad we'll keep trying.

But anyone who thinks it's likely that we are "left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years" is being completely hysterical and illogical. 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

On 10/7/2019 at 5:12 PM, StatTiger said:

It's not about happiness but reality for 2019. Did you believe this team was going to win 10+ games this season facing this schedule?

Non koolaid confidence in 10 wins, yes. Dead horse has been beaten but it's not unfair to predict Bo won't again youthfully miss TD opps MALZAHN (there I wrote it) handed him like overthrow dive catch that would have been TD, or slant at Seth's feet in endzone 2 plays later, etc. Bo will learn from those misfires and execute next time against defenses arguably no better than UFs. So yep, 10 wins WDE!🙂 (btw thanks for another outstanding thread Stat).

[oracle79 3,569]

15 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

Barfield

Thanks.  My mind has totally suppressed those memories.

[CodeRocket 410]

15 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

Barfield

I think we might have been the worst third and long defensive team I have ever seen. I would always hope for third and manageable because I thought we would have a better chance of getting a stop if the other team had three yards or less to gain! I suspect if all Auburn fans had to endure that tenure again we might have a different outlook on the current situation. I won't name the DC out of respect for the deceased.

[tigeraddikt 1,599]

3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

I'd say at least we tried and I'm glad we'll keep trying.

But anyone who thinks it's likely that we are "left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years" is being completely hysterical and illogical. 

As likely as Tennessee fans and boosters thought it was for their storied program to suffer what it has when they showed Fulmer the door. Our fans need not act like it isn't a real possibility. Likely? Not sure how to quantify the likelihood statistically, so I'm not going to even go down that alley.

[McLoofus 35,182]

5 minutes ago, tigeraddikt said:

As likely as Tennessee fans and boosters thought it was for their storied program to suffer what it has when they showed Fulmer the door. Our fans need not act like it isn't a real possibility. Likely? Not sure how to quantify the likelihood statistically, so I'm not going to even go down that alley.

Well, I would start by coming up with as many programs as possible in addition to Tennessee to whom that has happened.

Nebraska is the only other one that anyone has been able to come up with. Nebraska is in some of the worst recruiting territory in the country. Any blue chip recruit has to drive/fly past a dozen other, better programs before they get to Lincoln.

So that pretty much leaves Tennessee, which also is at a distinct geographic disadvantage to us in addition to their main non-Vandy conference rivals. 

So yeah. Quantify the likelihood by naming all the major programs that have endured over a decade of mediocrity before finding another decent coach and that have similar resources to Auburn, with a heavy emphasis on recruiting territory and success. 

[triangletiger 1,599]

3 hours ago, tigeraddikt said:

As likely as Tennessee fans and boosters thought it was for their storied program to suffer what it has when they showed Fulmer the door. Our fans need not act like it isn't a real possibility. Likely? Not sure how to quantify the likelihood statistically, so I'm not going to even go down that alley.

Some of the variables you have to consider in determining that probability are timing (which coaches would be available?), desirability of the Auburn coaching job ($ helps, but so does autonomy and plans to upgrade facilities.  A factor that could be a pro or con depending on the candidate would be the difficulty of our schedules), and the competence of those conducting the coaching search (this is the variable that concerns me).  

[StatTiger 3,188]

On 10/9/2019 at 1:34 PM, McLoofus said:

 

[oracle79 3,569]

Tennessee is still in a class by themselves compared to the programs you listed. Even Nebraska. I could dissect each school, but there is no point. People have made up their minds on this topic and it'll have to play out and the AD, BoT, and PTB will hopefully make the correct choice for Auburn football.

[StatTiger 3,188]

8 hours ago, oracle79 said:

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

9 hours ago, StatTiger said:

 

So we already discussed Tennessee and Nebraska. 

Virginia Tech is Kansas State. They weren't anything before Beamer and they're not meant to be anything now. They're nothing like Auburn. They don't belong in this discussion.

Florida? Are you equating "not likely to win the sorry East in year two" specifically because of a historically talented uga team with "left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years"? Surely

You of all people should not be using garbage stats like that. Herman was 7-6 in year 1. He was 10-4 in year 2 and finished ranked in the top 10 after winning the Sugar Bowl. He's "currently" 4-1 and ranked 11th in the country... 1 spot ahead of Auburn. Absolute disgraceful shambles? 5 years? Dude. 

Michigan? 4-1, ranked in the top 20, has won 10 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Not even close to fitting the bill. 

USC? Last year was the only losing season they've had since Carroll. Despite being hit with sanctions because of things that happened on Carroll's watch, their longest stretch without a 10-win season is 2 years. They've had some PR issues but they've hardly been "left in absolute disgraceful shambles for multiple years".

Miami has been a hot mess for a long time, true. And they are a name program in a recruiting hotbed. They weren't anything until Schnelly came along until '79, and they've been riddled with controversy ever since, but I'll give you that one.

And here's the thing about all of them: They. Keep. Trying. To. Win. By. Not. Keeping. Bad. Coaches. 

And here's the thing about every good coach ever: They. Got. Hired. Because. The. Previous. Guy. Left.

Quote

 

That is the insane line of reasoning that I am arguing against. 

Quote

Of course there's a possibility, but there's big difference between "possibility" and the "probability" that some are inventing in their heads.

9 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Did we truly replace Pat Dye? Not sure why you're asking.

First of all, did we fire him for performance-based reasons? (Which is a question that should apply to all of the schools and their big coaches above. Hint: The answer is mostly "no".) That's what we're talking about, right? Choosing to get rid of a coach because he's not winning enough games in hope of finding a better one?

Regardless, every coach since him- 4 of them- has had an undefeated season and/or a national title appearance. We've won the SEC West multiple times, the SEC three times (each of the last 3 coaches), a national title and a Heisman. We've set offensive records and we've had a couple defenses that rivaled Dye's best. We're also in a much different CFB landscape. Dye wouldn't have lasted nearly as long in today's SEC. Well, I say that, but Gus might be prove me wrong. And that's the point. Pat Dye sure as hell shouldn't be the ceiling we're trying to hit.

[McLoofus 35,182]

24 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

Tennessee is still in a class by themselves compared to the programs you listed. Even Nebraska. I could dissect each school, but there is no point. People have made up their minds on this topic and it'll have to play out and the AD, BoT, and PTB will hopefully make the correct choice for Auburn football.

Classic "exception to the rule says hi" nonsense. Not just an Auburn thing or even a sports thing. But I do, for whatever reason, feel compelled to point out the logical fallacy whenever it happens. 

[triangletiger 1,599]

12 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

And here's the thing about all of them: They. Keep. Trying. To. Win. By. Not. Keeping. Bad. Coaches. 

That's the struggle with Malzahn.  He's not necessarily a 'bad coach'.  He has shown signs of being a good coach at times and does a lot of things right, but it's not consistent.  We get games like MSU that make us think he's turned the corner,  and then games like last Saturday that leave us scratching our head.  He's good enough that it leaves us uncertain.  It's nerve-wracking.

Edited October 10, 2019 by triangletiger
add word that I left out

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, triangletiger said:

That's the struggle with Malzahn.  He's not necessarily a 'bad coach'.  He has shown signs of being a good coach at times and does a lot of things right, but it's not consistent.  We get games MSU that make us think he's turned the corner,  and then games like last Saturday that leave us scratching our head.  He's good enough that it leaves us uncertain.  It's nerve-wracking.

Well said. He's not a bad coach. I used that word for convenience but it's not accurate with regards to Gus.