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AU's D should cash betting ticket at Arkansas


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Auburn’s defense should cash betting ticket at Arkansas

Updated Oct 15, 2019; Posted Oct 15, 2019

 

By Christopher Smith

The last time Auburn took the field, it scored 13 points on 4.4 yards per play and turned the ball over four times.

Laying 19 points on the road may make you feel leery.

I liked the line better at Auburn -17.5 on Sunday, but I’d still bet Auburn at this price. The handicap comes down to Auburn’s defense against Arkansas’ offense.

Count on Auburn to exceed 30 points

Why do I feel confident that the Tigers can score enough to cover nearly a three-touchdown number?

The Arkansas defense ranks 58th in SP+.

In three games against SP+ No. 1 defense Oregon, No. 16 Florida and No. 29 Texas A&M, Auburn’s offense averaged 4.8 yards per play. Bo Nix was 36 of 79 for 422 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions.

In three games against SP+ defense No. 42 Mississippi State, No. 57 Tulane and No. 105 Kent State, Auburn’s offense averaged 6.9 yards per play. Nix was 47 of 74 for 703 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Based on the line and total (55), oddsmakers are suggesting a score in the neighborhood of 35-17 or 38-17.

Auburn’s offense should score in the 30s against Arkansas by playing a normal game, and could reach the 40s with a non-offensive touchdown or some long scores on good Gus Malzahn play calls.

Against FBS competition, Arkansas has allowed 31, 34, 31, 31 and 24 points. Auburn could be the best offensive team that the Razorbacks have faced.

The 24-point game came Saturday against Kentucky, during which the Wildcats started a receiver at quarterback. Arkansas allowed him to rush for 196 yards and two touchdowns.

Don’t be scared off by the offensive performance in Gainesville, because that isn’t going to repeat itself in Fayetteville.

Can one-dimensional Arkansas offense produce against Auburn?

The Arkansas offense ranks 89th in SP+.

That’s worse than Toledo, Marshall and Florida International and just ahead of Eastern Michigan and New Mexico.

Arkansas’ quarterbacks were 12 of 27 for 122 yards against Kentucky on Saturday, a defense far inferior to Auburn’s.

Rakeem Boyd, the lone Razorbacks skill player who has been consistently productive, must face Derrick Brown and an Auburn defensive line off a bye week.

More specifically, the Arkansas offensive line must go against that group. Considering it ranks 90th in power success rate and 70th in stuff rate, one can surmise that the Tigers defense will get in the backfield early and often on Saturday.

Boyd may have decent success on standard downs. He usually does. But against a quality defense like Auburn’s, which does not have to show any respect to the Arkansas passing game, can Boyd carry his team to 20+ points?

I’m skeptical.

The Chad Morris era isn’t good for Arkansas fans

Since a 55-20 win against Eastern Illinois in his Arkansas debut, head coach Chad Morris has won three times – against 2018 Tulsa (3-9), 2019 Portland State (4-3) and 2019 Colorado State (2-5). Morris seems headed toward a two-year record of 5-19.

Forgive Arkansas fans if they miss Bret Bielema (first two seasons: 10-15) and Bobby Petrino (first two seasons: 13-12).

Four of Arkansas’ six games this season have finished within one possession. The problem is that three of those came against Portland State, San Jose State and a Kentucky team that, again, started a receiver at quarterback.

Since he became Auburn’s head coach, Malzahn is 5-1 ATS against Arkansas, covering the spread by an average margin of 12.3 points. The only non-cover came in 2015. That Auburn team, which finished 2-6 in the SEC, went to Fayetteville as a seven-point underdog and lost by eight … in four overtimes.

The fact that Auburn is coming off an ugly loss and a bye week makes me believe we’ll see one of this team’s better games. I don’t think the Arkansas offensive line will be up to the task, so I expect Auburn to cover on the strength of its defense.

Final score: Auburn 38, Arkansas 17

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.

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