matchup advantages against LSU

[aubiefifty 16,761]

Betting: Auburn holds some matchup advantages against LSU

Posted Oct 22, 2019

5-6 minutes

In the last two weeks, we’ve seen previously-unbeaten statistical giants Georgia and Wisconsin lose as huge favorites.

Will LSU (7-0) be next?

I don’t think so, but I believe this is a decent matchup for Auburn.

As of Tuesday night, LSU is a 10.5- or 11-point favorite, with totals ranging from 58 to 59.5.

During Auburn’s bye week, I advised you to circle three games on the remaining schedule as potential under bets, and Auburn-LSU was one of those. I also anticipated a strong game against Arkansas would inflate Auburn’s offense in the betting market.

The Tigers put up 51 points on 491 yards on the Razorbacks, so put a big check mark next to that.

However, I made the line LSU -10.5 and the over/under 57.5, which means the posted numbers don’t offer much value.

Are there matchup or game plan advantages that should make us consider adjusting those figures? Let’s work through that together.

Auburn can shut down LSU’s running game and limit long pass plays

LSU’s offense has been one of the biggest stories of the 2019 college football season.

Passing game coordinator Joe Brady is a Broyles Award frontrunner as the nation’s best assistant coach, and QB Joe Burrow was the Heisman Trophy betting favorite as of Tuesday evening.

The Tigers have put up historic numbers against defenses with an average SP+ ranking of 53.0, excluding a game against FCS program Northwestern State.

Burrow has faced two SP+ top 40 defenses in Florida (No. 18) and Utah State (No. 33). But the Gators were missing their two best pass rushers for most of the game, and the Aggies rank 97th in the 247Sports team talent composite rankings.

Auburn’s defense (SP+ No. 6) represents by far the biggest challenge LSU has faced.

Auburn’s run defense is a little better than its pass defense, and LSU butters their bread with the pass. That’s a negative within this matchup on the surface, but let’s look closer.

LSU is tied for third nationally with 41 pass plays of at least 20 yards. Burrow has thrived on explosive plays downfield. Auburn’s defense (17 allowed) is tied for 26th in that category, and should be able to leverage its defensive line and game plan to limit explosive plays.

If Auburn forces LSU to put together eight-, nine- and 10-play drives, I assume those will include some LSU first-down runs. Auburn’s defense should perform well against those.

Given enough third-and-long attempts against a decent pass rush, even Burrow (79.4 percent completion rate) will fail on occasion.

Expect to see some punts, field goal attempts and perhaps even a turnover or two from LSU’s offense.

What can Auburn’s offense exploit in this matchup?

LSU’s biggest issue on defense has been defending sideline-to-sideline in the front seven, especially against slot receivers and tight ends across the middle or screens and edge runs by fast receivers and running backs.

It’s difficult to beat LSU’s secondary downfield or its front seven with a power run game, as Mississippi State discovered last week when the Tigers took away Kylin Hill and swatted away countless passes.

Those strengths and weaknesses work out just fine for Auburn. It doesn’t make sense to ask Bo Nix, who has not played well against good defenses, to win the game by challenging LSU’s cornerbacks (although Seth Williams can win his share of those battles).

However, Malzahn does a nice job of mixing unconventional run plays and leveraging the speed of Anthony Schwartz and others.

LSU’s defense has shown a propensity to tire out late, especially if the opponent is able to be efficient. Against the only two SP+ top 30 offenses it has faced (Texas and Florida), LSU allowed a combined 58 first downs, 169 plays, 66 points and 987 yards.

Auburn runs the ball on 62.5 percent of its offensive snaps, compared to 46.0 percent for LSU.

It makes sense for the visiting Tigers to attempt to relegate Burrow to the bench for as much of the game as possible.

Auburn’s offensive line and LSU’s defensive line match up evenly. But between Malzahn’s unconventional runs and the potential for a lot of plays and time of possession, Auburn’s running game could find some nice success in the second half.

Is it worth placing a bet?

Oddsmakers are suggesting a final score of something like 35-24.

If your sportsbook allows correlated plays, you may consider a parlay, especially at Auburn +11 and under 59.5.

If Auburn covers the spread, it will be because it controls the clock with an efficient running game and high-percentage passes, and because it prevents quick strikes by LSU’s pass offense.

Even at the best prices in the current market, I can’t recommend Auburn +11 or under 59.5 by themselves. For me, those are leans, not plays -- unless you can parlay them together.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.

[Linayus 676]

That's a pretty sound take on the game. Our LBs/DBs are going to have to play well and not miss open field tackles like we did against Florida that really busted that game for us. If we can set the edge offensively, we have a huge advantage and it will pay dividends late.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

Essentially Auburn has to be able to sustain long drives on the ground

 

good luck with that 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

3 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Essentially Auburn has to be able to sustain long drives on the ground

 

good luck with that 

We did it against Oregon and had luck with not against Florida once we made a concerted effort to do so. Just have to finish. THAT is the real problem. Too many missed downfield shots which lead to third and long situations. 

Gotta be very efficient on offense and limit LSUs first down success. If we can win the turnover battle and tackle for loss battle, this game will look a lot closer than what many imagine. 

[Beaker 2,457]

#1 - must make LSU defend the ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE FIELD.   Gus got conservative when our first run of the jet sweep got busted at G'ville.  After than, almost nothing was wide.

Every other game, EVERY OTHER GAME, we made them defend the entire width.   Look it up - 

 

We do this and the D plays great, we win.   (probably)

 

[Win4AU 4,052]

Gus > Cookie Monster

[doc4aday 1,887]

I think Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson will have Burrow looking skyward more than he has all season. I think this will be the game that we come through and make a strong statement to all of the college football world. Enough of all of this woe is us facing big bad LSU's passing game. This Saturday will be a great day for Auburn football and the game where we change the stars in favor of the good guys.....(Auburn of course) Gotta believe folks...gotta believe!!!

[The Freak 2,526]

13 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Gus > Cookie Monster

Gus 0, Cookie Monster 2

[Win4AU 4,052]

4 minutes ago, The Freak said:

Gus 0, Cookie Monster 2

Don’t bring facts into this discussion 

[doc4aday 1,887]

3 hours ago, Beaker said:

#1 - must make LSU defend the ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE FIELD.   Gus got conservative when our first run of the jet sweep got busted at G'ville.  After than, almost nothing was wide.

Every other game, EVERY OTHER GAME, we made them defend the entire width.   Look it up - 

 

We do this and the D plays great, we win.   (probably)

 

You are right we need to do this! Do this, we have a good chance of winning.

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

We're out matched athletically and from a coaching perspective, and the game's in Baton Rouge. 

I hope none of you fine people are spending money to travel to this thing.

[Sizzle 3,912]

7 hours ago, Beaker said:

#1 - must make LSU defend the ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE FIELD.   Gus got conservative when our first run of the jet sweep got busted at G'ville.  After than, almost nothing was wide.

Every other game, EVERY OTHER GAME, we made them defend the entire width.   Look it up - 

 

We do this and the D plays great, we win.   (probably)

 

Yep don’t go away from it if it doesn’t work one time. It’ll open up eventually. Stick with it. We should run a reverse where Schwartz hands it off to someone else.

You know the whole defense would overcompensate going to him then once Schwartz flips it then it should be nothing but green grass

[AU64 10,122]

Wow...from reading some of the comments it looks like Saturday would be a good day to take this site down for updates and maintenance.  Can't imagine anyone will want to sign in and spend three plus hours watching and posting about a one-sided game. 

So...what games will be on the tube Saturday that are more worthy of our time?  Maybe Maryland at Minn to see if the gophers can keep their streak alive...or USCe and Tenn to see which HC blows a gasket over the lousy SEC officiating that is sure to be a factor in the outcome.   Can't wait ….😁 

[AUsince72 11,084]

41 minutes ago, AU64 said:

...or USCe and Tenn to see which HC blows a gasket over the lousy SEC officiating that is sure to be a factor in the outcome.

In fairness, that game has no bearing on anything outside of the states of SC & TN....so the Officiating will be stellar!

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Maybe DJ Williams is our secret weapon. We have been holding him back and he will burst on the scene Saturday.  People will be asking “WHO is THAT”? 
 

hey, I can dream. 

[Viper 3,132]

17 hours ago, BigWhiskey91 said:

We did it against Oregon and had luck with not against Florida once we made a concerted effort to do so. Just have to finish. THAT is the real problem. Too many missed downfield shots which lead to third and long situations. 

Gotta be very efficient on offense and limit LSUs first down success. If we can win the turnover battle and tackle for loss battle, this game will look a lot closer than what many imagine. 

The big problem is...we have to do all of these positives all game, not here & there, to have a chance of winning. Burrow & his three WRs thrive on big plays, even when covered well. It’s going to be next to impossible to suffocate them all game. Even if we miraculously have a lead in the 4th Q, we still have to stop them. And they have a good FG kicker if we’re only up by 1-2 points.

I generally always believe we can beat LSU. The last time I believed we had zero chance was 2011...and we lost 45-10. I see a similar score again. 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

3 hours ago, Viper said:

The big problem is...we have to do all of these positives all game, not here & there, to have a chance of winning. Burrow & his three WRs thrive on big plays, even when covered well. It’s going to be next to impossible to suffocate them all game. Even if we miraculously have a lead in the 4th Q, we still have to stop them. And they have a good FG kicker if we’re only up by 1-2 points.

I generally always believe we can beat LSU. The last time I believed we had zero chance was 2011...and we lost 45-10. I see a similar score again. 

Unless we have several turnovers, I think we cover. Going to need an efficient outing from Nix. 

Hes been efficient on first down this season. He’s 46/70 for 657yds, 8TDs and 1 INT. He’s most efficient on first down in the second half. He’s 22/26 for 354yards 7TDs and 1 INT. His loan INT coming against Florida on the final possession.

If we can get him in rhythm early and find ways to work him in the run game, I like our shot at putting up a winning effort on offense. Just can’t afford to turn it over or get behind schedule on offense.

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, BigWhiskey91 said:

Unless we have several turnovers, I think we cover.

I don’t see how. We forced FL into several turnovers and the OL still found a way to lose the game. Nix’s INTs didn’t help, but his last two came late in the game, long after our D gave the O plenty of opportunities in FL territory to take the game over. The Swamp played a huge factor in rattling the O. So will Death Valley as they are a notch louder than The Swamp. 

You can simulate noise in practice, but you can’t simulate anxiety, duress and ear-splitting momentum from the opposition. At the rate they move the chains & score, unlike FL’s offense, they’re going to have a lot of momentum-changing plays.

Even if we win the turnover margin, I would be shocked if we cover. 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

27 minutes ago, Viper said:

I don’t see how. We forced FL into several turnovers and the OL still found a way to lose the game. Nix’s INTs didn’t help, but his last two came late in the game, long after our D gave the O plenty of opportunities in FL territory to take the game over. The Swamp played a huge factor in rattling the O. So will Death Valley as they are a notch louder than The Swamp. 

You can simulate noise in practice, but you can’t simulate anxiety, duress and ear-splitting momentum from the opposition. At the rate they move the chains & score, unlike FL’s offense, they’re going to have a lot of momentum-changing plays.

Even if we win the turnover margin, I would be shocked if we cover. 

Had we made an adjustment to run more inside zone in the first half of that game, it’s a completely different game. Stuck GT counter/power concepts which completely plays into the strength of UFs defense. UF has excellent speed on their defense which is why we did not test them with sweeps much. The GT concepts involve pulling the Guard and Tackle from the same side of the line which makes it long developing. UF DL was able to beat our pulling OL to those holes and stuffed our rush attempts. 

The thought behind it is that you overload the point of the attack which was the interior. The problem was that we were pulling our slowest linemen against UFs lighter and fast front. Swapping to zone in the second half started to open up more rushing lanes. Just came too late and our best possessions in the second half ended without points.

[PoetTiger 1,896]

20 hours ago, dyehardfanAU said:

We're out matched athletically and from a coaching perspective, and the game's in Baton Rouge. 

I hope none of you fine people are spending money to travel to this thing.

So the players and coaches should just sit this one out....😂😂. Well I’ll be spending my money...in NOLA today and heading over to BR later tomorrow evening

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

2 hours ago, PoetTiger said:

So the players and coaches should just sit this one out....😂😂. Well I’ll be spending my money...in NOLA today and heading over to BR later tomorrow evening

It's hard to have a bad weekend in NOLA.

[kwagoner 214]

2 hours ago, PoetTiger said:

So the players and coaches should just sit this one out....😂😂. Well I’ll be spending my money...in NOLA today and heading over to BR later tomorrow evening

You aren’t the only one.... My wife and I are taking our boys (13 & 14) to their second away stadium. It’d be a memory to last a lifetime for them if we are fortunate enough to break the drought in BR.

[doc4aday 1,887]

Burrow will be spending Saturday in a horizontal position more than he has yet this season. It will happen and take Doc to the bank my friends!

[doc4aday 1,887]

On 10/23/2019 at 4:59 PM, Beaker said:

#1 - must make LSU defend the ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE FIELD.   Gus got conservative when our first run of the jet sweep got busted at G'ville.  After than, almost nothing was wide.

Every other game, EVERY OTHER GAME, we made them defend the entire width.   Look it up - 

 

We do this and the D plays great, we win.   (probably)

 

You are so correct! This game will go down as a Missouri/vandy game, Wisconsin and the other big upset recently. Mark my words. I am not delusional but know something good is going to happen for us! I wish no ill will, but I would not lose any sleep if Burrow had an injury that would take him out of the game and let him come back against bammer!