N.C. State Preview/ Review

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401082845

 

Our two best players from last year's devastation...are still on the roster. This game was one of Jvon's first great performances (which I dont remember) and another game where Austin was great whenever the ball was allowed to go to him (which I do remember). Wiley could improve the TOs he had, which were very similar to the turnovers Wiley has in most games. Grab ball, dont let ball get stripped, go up with ball. 

 

In other news, NCSU beat UNCG (a team that competed with KU in Kansas fairly well) on the road on the back of a half court prayer from the guy that killed us last year (not the white guy). So...I guess he still has the magic

[triangletiger 1,599]

Looks like C.J. Bryce is the main guy to stop on their team.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

They will be the best team we have faced. Kenpom rankings:

35. N.C. State

69. Richmond

74. Davidson

77. Furman

88. New Mexico

98. St. Louis

132. Colgate

137. South Alabama

164. Georgia Southern

241. Cal. St. Northridge

 

The best by a large margin, better buckle up for a step up in competition. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,134]

This game will really tell us where we are at.  NC State is always a tough team. We need to start hot and stay hot whole game but more importantly play tough D and work the boards as that seems to be our bread and butter this year. 

[jared52 4,354]

If this were a road or neutral game, I'd have to pick NC State, but being in AU Arena makes a big difference for AU. I am hoping that there will be a good crowd. I'd be one of them if we weren't going to be headed a different direction for our family Christmas trip.

[boisnumber1 2,818]

I'm thinking this is where we get our first loss. These layoffs and god-awful FT shooting, really poor shooting period, will catch up to us. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we can't just keep winning every game playing like we are playing. Would be nice to go into January undefeated though.

[TigerStripe 36]

Didn't they keep us locked out of their arena prior to the game last year? I seem to remember us not being able to do our normal pre-game walkthroughs as a result of that nonsense. It'd be great to have a solid crowd to help us get some payback.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

1 hour ago, TigerStripe said:

Didn't they keep us locked out of their arena prior to the game last year? I seem to remember us not being able to do our normal pre-game walkthroughs as a result of that nonsense. It'd be great to have a solid crowd to help us get some payback.

I went to the Arkansas game over a Christmas break that was the last game before we really took off in 2017...so this isnt the fairest comparison. However, I really dont think theres that much of an audience left as far as students go. I would love if we played the theatrics like they did though 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

8 hours ago, boisnumber1 said:

I'm thinking this is where we get our first loss. These layoffs and god-awful FT shooting, really poor shooting period, will catch up to us. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we can't just keep winning every game playing like we are playing. Would be nice to go into January undefeated though.

I think if we win this game we can reasonably win out until SEC play, but we definitely have looked horrible since the tournament. 

[AUBourne 425]

9 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I think if we win this game we can reasonably win out until SEC play, but we definitely have looked horrible since the tournament. 

AU did not look good on offense in Brooklyn. Points off defense is what drove scoring. AU went through this exact phase this time last year. The players are thinking instead of reacting and it takes away some of our athleticism advantage. I think Bruce is going through a process of installing his system.  When it all comes together this team is going to be so much fun to watch. 

[Tiger 8,818]

We better not let them get a shootaround in the afternoon

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

5 hours ago, AUBourne said:

AU did not look good on offense in Brooklyn. Points off defense is what drove scoring. AU went through this exact phase this time last year. The players are thinking instead of reacting and it takes away some of our athleticism advantage. I think Bruce is going through a process of installing his system.  When it all comes together this team is going to be so much fun to watch. 

Yeah I’m saying we haven’t looked overall good since that point

[AURex 1,990]

If our guys come out shooting bricks, look out. Just like last year, NCSU will come out playing team ball.

Will the NCAA investigation affect them? NOPE!

Auburn will need to play big boy BB from the opening bell.

But ya know what? I think the home court advantage really makes a difference in this game.

AU by 2

 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Well the best team to date is rolling in for a game that was one of the biggest let downs of the season last year. So I posted the kenpom rankings in another thread and won't get back into that, but they are by far the best team we have played yet per the metrics. They are largely considered a bubble team (50s in the NET) but get more love in some other metrics like kenpom. 

Statistically, it is like looking in a mirror. Looking at all the major stats we are extremely evenly matched in scoring, shooting % from 2 and 3, and efficiency measures. They have all five starters averaging 10+ points and their 6th man averaging 9.6, so they are very balanced scoring wise. They are small at the point but have good size at forward starting a 6-10 Funderburk and bringing 6-10 Bates off the bench. Both with solid but not sparkling stats. If I was going to pick their best player it would be Bryce, a 6-5 wing that leads them in scoring, steals and rebounding, and is second in assists. They score a lot and average more attempts than we do, so they are going to get up and down the floor. They only attempt 22 3s per game so they prefer to go inside the arch more than we do (26 3s per game attempted). Also of note, they are top 50 in free throw percentage at 75% but don't get a lot of attempts, that is something to watch, the number of free throws attempted, this one may come down to late free throws in the halves, which is a bad deal for us. 

The only place I see a distinct advantage for us is on the glass. We have been a much better rebounding team to this point and will need that to hold true in this game to get a W. If everything else plays out as an average game for each team, we must win this battle. They have a good bench with 8 guys playing 15+ minutes and all give production in some area, I don't expect to wear this team down. We will have to play well the entire game to get this W. If Wiley struggles you may see us go to our small lineup and press more than we have to date as they have shown some signs that they will turn the ball over at times (not a lot overall). I'd look for a fast paced high scoring game, first one to 85 wins.

 

Keys to the game:

• win big on the glass
• don't send them to the line and make this a free throw contest
• limit our turnovers
• Wiley needs to dominate on the glass and return to good form on offense (less shots away from the hoop).
• Make some jump shots early to spread out the defense
• Okoro needs to lock down Bryce and make him work on defense when he guards Okoro
• I think we will need good production from the bench 

There it is. War Eagle!

[gravejd 3,270]

Excited to see how we measure up. Thanks for the breakdown @JwgreDeux

[Tiger 8,818]

Another point you missed:

Hope like hell Teddy Valentine isn't officiating this game. He is my personal nemesis. 

 

In all seriousness, thanks for these breakdowns I love them

[lost 452]

We just have to hit our free throws tomorrow. If they are 8 deep and shoot like they do I make this a physical game and make us beat them at the line.  Defensively, they know we will be swarming anyway so take advantage of our aggressiveness.  We have shown it does not matter who they send to the line, there is a good chance 1 shot will be missed.

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I’ve paid attention to three sec games tonight (LSU and Vanderbilt have already lost and Tennessee is behind by 9 with two mins left). Reading the LSU boards indicates a lot of blame on the long layoffs. I’m just hoping we can overcome this bugaboo tomorrow night. I like that zero in the loss column.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

I’m feeling a bit better about this one than I was yesterday. Think our defense will be the difference. Don’t know if we will cover the 8.5 spread but think it goes over the 152 total. 

[gravejd 3,270]

1 hour ago, JwgreDeux said:

I’m feeling a bit better about this one than I was yesterday. Think our defense will be the difference. Don’t know if we will cover the 8.5 spread but think it goes over the 152 total. 

Whoah 8.5 pt spread seems pretty high to me. AU getting some respect in Vegas. Hope we play that well. I have an NC State friend who is not very high on his team. But I think it is more general apathy towards all things NC State related at the moment.....hearing him talk about NC State sports really helps me better appreciate being an AU fan. At least we have ups and downs......they mostly have downs with an up every 10 years or so 😬

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

Duncan Robinson had to go to an ideal landing spot to be current Duncan, so I hope Danjel is afforded that opportunity. RHJ makes alot of sense as far as comparisons go although I dont know how Rondae was built coming into college. Hes built like a monster now. 

[aubiefifty 16,738]

3 takeaways from Auburn's win over NC State

Posted Dec 19, 2019

5-7 minutes

For 36 minutes, NC State hung with Auburn in a back-and-forth battle, but the Tigers started to pull away as Samir Doughty took control of the game.

“Obviously Samir Doughty, we put the ball in his hands late to close things out because of his ability to make free throws and get fouled,” coach Bruce Pearl said. “He did a good job with that.”

He hit two free throws to extend Auburn’s one-possession lead to four points. He then scored seven of Auburn’s last 11 points to help put away the game. With the 79-73 win, Auburn improved to 10-0.

Auburn came out to yet another slow start and missed most of its shots for the first few minutes. The Tigers struggled to get organized offensively, Pearl said. They got their game together later on in the game, but it was really the defense that won the game.

Last year, Markell Johnson scored 27 points on Auburn. This year, he was held to 17 points. The Tigers’ length and size gave them a chance, Pearl said. They were able to hold the Wolfpack to nine points under their average of 82.5 points a game.

“That was the difference,” Pearl said.

Auburn forced 18 turnovers, which it turned into 22 points. It was able to hold NC State to just 18 points off the 17 turnovers it gave up. It wasn’t pretty, Pearl said, but Auburn basketball isn’t going to be pretty this year.

Here are three takeaways from the hard-fought win:

Free throws win games...

... especially when the refs call 50 fouls in the game. The refs called 23 fouls between the two teams in the first half alone. Auburn was shooting one-and-one’s less than a quarter into the game, and both teams were well into bonus shots before the half ended. Auburn’s fouls were spread out among seven players, so no one got into foul trouble early, but two of the NC State players had three fouls before halftime, including starting guard Braxton Beverly.

The trend continued after halftime. With 10:31 left in the game, the first NC State player, Devon Daniels, fouled out. Nine minutes later, C.J. Bryce fouled out, as well. All the Tigers avoided fouling out, although Allen Flanigan and Isaac Okoro came close with four.

The free throws became even more important considering Auburn shot 45 percent from the field and 32 percent from the arc. They made 64 percent of their free throws, slightly above their season average of 63 percent. NC State made 60 percent of theirs. However, Auburn shot free throws in bulk. While the Wolfpack only shot 20 free throws, the Tigers went to the line 36 times. The Tigers made 11 more than the Wolfpack, which was more than the difference of the game.

The hashtag is unstoppable

As Doughty caught the fast break pass right beneath the basket, a defender caught up to him. Doughty shot faked and then hesitated. The defender went flying by. Completely open, Doughty laid it in, then turned and flexed. The basket was the culmination of a seven-point run by Doughty which helped flip a two-point deficit into a five-point lead. Doughty was in double digits before the second half started.

As Doughty flew around the floor, he deflected passes, broke ankles and hit threes. He cut through the paint and came out with a basket or a foul — and sometimes both. Even when he was on the bench, Doughty looked like he was trying to impose his will on the game, all while sporting the headband. Ten games in, and #headbandsamir as a trend has become inevitable.

Auburn went to Doughty late to put the game away. He scored the last seven points in the six-point win, including a three-pointer that increased the lead to eight.

The three wasn’t the play call, but it was a second option. And it was a “pretty good option,” Doughty said.

“I think that should have been the first one,” Doughty said. Doughty finished with 24 points, four assists, four steals, two rebounds and a block. He’s scored in double digits in every game but one this season.

McCormick is becoming more aggressive

Ever since Pearl made a comment before the Furman game about how he wants J’Von McCormick to be more aggressive, McCormick has been going to the rim more. McCormick took 14 shots, the most on the team, against Saint Louis, and finished as the team’s leading scorer. Against NC State, he made 12 attempts, which tied Doughty for the most.

“That's my roommate, so we have talks about stuff like this all the time,” Doughty said. “And I tell him to be aggressive at all times. That's when he's at his best, when he's just playing free, not worrying about making mistakes."

On Thursday night, McCormick didn’t hesitate to drive into the paint through NC State defenders. He made a layup while flipping through the air after a defender hit him. Outside the arc, McCormick missed both his three-pointers, but he drew a foul on one of them and made two of the three foul shots. McCormick was the team’s second-leading scorer behind Doughty. He put 14 points on the board and also came down with four rebounds.

Despite his new focus on the rim, McCormick hasn’t lost his ability to create opportunities for his teammates. He led the team with six assists against Saint Louis and finished with three assists against NC State.

“He can get anywhere he want on the floor,” Doughty said. “It’s just whether he wants to shoot the ball or find his teammates.”

[doverstutts 1,643]

We got better, baby steps better for sure, but better.....The help defense is still lacking at times and we still give up too damned many easy shots....Rebounding was spotty when DP and AW were out of the game....I was terrified of this game because I had watched NCSU play twice and their athleticism scared me....These guys were pretty good and as much as I despise the @@****&$s that officiate games, its probably a good thingthat they called it close and erratic....As bad as we are at the line, that was the difference....It would have been easier if we had hit the under the basket stuff and the layups that we missed, but I'll take it....Its the little things that are holding us up now....They are keeping us from being a really good team

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 12/18/2019 at 11:43 AM, JwgreDeux said:

Well the best team to date is rolling in for a game that was one of the biggest let downs of the season last year. So I posted the kenpom rankings in another thread and won't get back into that, but they are by far the best team we have played yet per the metrics. They are largely considered a bubble team (50s in the NET) but get more love in some other metrics like kenpom. 

Statistically, it is like looking in a mirror. Looking at all the major stats we are extremely evenly matched in scoring, shooting % from 2 and 3, and efficiency measures. They have all five starters averaging 10+ points and their 6th man averaging 9.6, so they are very balanced scoring wise. They are small at the point but have good size at forward starting a 6-10 Funderburk and bringing 6-10 Bates off the bench. Both with solid but not sparkling stats. If I was going to pick their best player it would be Bryce, a 6-5 wing that leads them in scoring, steals and rebounding, and is second in assists. They score a lot and average more attempts than we do, so they are going to get up and down the floor. They only attempt 22 3s per game so they prefer to go inside the arch more than we do (26 3s per game attempted). Also of note, they are top 50 in free throw percentage at 75% but don't get a lot of attempts, that is something to watch, the number of free throws attempted, this one may come down to late free throws in the halves, which is a bad deal for us. 

The only place I see a distinct advantage for us is on the glass. We have been a much better rebounding team to this point and will need that to hold true in this game to get a W. If everything else plays out as an average game for each team, we must win this battle. They have a good bench with 8 guys playing 15+ minutes and all give production in some area, I don't expect to wear this team down. We will have to play well the entire game to get this W. If Wiley struggles you may see us go to our small lineup and press more than we have to date as they have shown some signs that they will turn the ball over at times (not a lot overall). I'd look for a fast paced high scoring game, first one to 85 wins.

 

Keys to the game:

• win big on the glass
• don't send them to the line and make this a free throw contest
• limit our turnovers
• Wiley needs to dominate on the glass and return to good form on offense (less shots away from the hoop).
• Make some jump shots early to spread out the defense
• Okoro needs to lock down Bryce and make him work on defense when he guards Okoro
• I think we will need good production from the bench 

There it is. War Eagle!

 

On 12/19/2019 at 12:26 PM, JwgreDeux said:

I’m feeling a bit better about this one than I was yesterday. Think our defense will be the difference. Don’t know if we will cover the 8.5 spread but think it goes over the 152 total. 

The ugly winds continue and I think it’s time we except this is the style we will be playing.
 

we didn’t accomplish many of the keys to the game that I laid out, didn’t win the rebounding battle, didn’t do a good job of limiting our fouls, about the only thing we did end up doing well was turning them over and getting them in foul trouble.  We shot ok from the line and it was enough. 
 

I think the other take away that is clear that Samir is the leader of this team, and will be our closer and most games this year. He got big buckets when we needed them, was affected driving the ball and getting it to others for baskets at times, and played timely defense during the second half.

 

Johnson made some clutch shots early but overall as a team we couldn’t get things to fall. While he was kept off-balance most of the night and Purifoy continued his struggles to get production.

 

He’s going to have to step up and do more if we’re going to win a lot more games

 

10 wins looks good. War Eagle 

[bigbird 60,457]

We struggled finishing at the rim some last night. We need to be able to convert better  once we get there.