2019/20 Season Bracketology Thread

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology.

Up to a 3 seed in the East bracket, where the 1 seed is UVA.

[bigbird 60,501]

12 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology.

Up to a 3 seed in the East bracket, where the 1 seed is UVA.

Could you imagine the atmosphere for a UVA rematch

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 12/2/2019 at 3:07 PM, bigbird said:

Could you imagine the atmosphere for a UVA rematch

it would be crazy. 

 

On another note, we are starting to pop up several power rankings as the top team in the SEC currently. https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/sec-basketball-power-rankings-tennessees-mixed-week-auburn-rolls-and-texas-am-struggles/

[ellitor 33,086]

we are holding steady as a projected 2 seed in the NCAA Tourney on Bracket Matrix.

[ellitor 33,086]

On 12/2/2019 at 3:07 PM, bigbird said:

Could you imagine the atmosphere for a UVA rematch

Latest from ESPN...

[AUBwins 10,075]

36 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Latest from ESPN...

Bring it!!!

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, AUBwins said:

Bring it!!!

Naw man. You gotta do it right...

[AUBwins 10,075]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Naw man. You gotta do it right...

Just wanted to give you the opportunity lol

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, AUBwins said:

Just wanted to give you the opportunity lol

Gracias!

[toddc 13,194]

This is getting crazy! I was gearing up my psyche to have a little bit of a let down this year and now I’m more pumped than in the last 20 years. In the words of @GwillMac6  muh maaaan, “leeeet’s goooooooooo, wooooohooooo, War Bruuuuuuuuce”!!!!

[AuburnNTexas 7,140]

I am trying to temper my expectations. This team keeps finding a way to win and yet I can see the areas where we have issues to solve.  Inconsistent outside shooting especially from the three, bad FT shooting.  By now those weaknesses should have bitten us but tough D, hard work on the boards,  Wiley giving us a legitimate down low presence. and while our 3 pt shooting is very inconsistent it seems one or two players get hot just when we need them  

I thought at beginning of year we would probably get into NCAA tournament and I thought we might even get to  mid bracket 7 or 8 range but so far this team has proven me wrong and I hope they continue to prove me wrong.  By the end of this month I will do a total re-evaluation based on how we handle the next 6 games.

[AUBwins 10,075]

I really would like to see the 3 point shots lower about 5-8 attempts per game since that has not been a strength. I think a few attempts more in the paint instead of long range would bring a better balance to the offense. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

I would think a top 4 seed should be guaranteed bar injuries

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I would think a top 4 seed should be guaranteed bar injuries

Not yet. While our schedule is solid we are missing high quality wins. We had 0 Quad 1 wins before Miss St, & Richmond slid in there today. Given our schedule will not as much top quality as other teams' will we will likely have to go no worse than 14-4in the SEC to ensure a top 4 seed. That's hardly a given.

[Beaker 2,457]

On 1/8/2020 at 2:11 PM, ellitor said:

Not yet. While our schedule is solid we are missing high quality wins. We had 0 Quad 1 wins before Miss St, & Richmond slid in there today. Given our schedule will not as much top quality as other teams' will we will likely have to go no worse than 14-4in the SEC to ensure a top 4 seed. That's hardly a given.

14-4?

The consistency required to win 14 SEC games would be incredible.  

 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Hey guys, I'm a bit of a stat nerd, and have developed an algorithm based off of overall record, conference record, NET, and RPI that I update automatically every day. Nothing about this is my opinion, except for who I think will win the automatic bids for each conference, and a few game changes to keep first round conference opponents away from each other (no seeds are changed). After that, it's just ranking the teams by the lowest "value" that I've calculated (except for the play in games where I take the last four teams in a pit them against each other as 11 seeds, then the bottom 4 16 seeds and pit them against each other as well) and putting them into a model. It's projecting the bracket if the season ended today. It's a fun free time activity, figured I'd share results:

 

As of 1/13:

1 seeds: Baylor, Butler, Duke, SDSU

2 seeds: Auburn, Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton

3 seeds: Wichita State, Stanford, West Virginia, Michigan State

4 seeds: Oregon, Florida State, Louisville, Seton Hall

5 seeds: Liberty, Maryland, Villanova, Colorado

6 seeds: Kentucky, Memphis, Arkansas, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Wisconsin, Creighton

8 seeds: Akron, rutgers, UNI, BYU

9 seeds: Illinois, Duquense, Michigan, Iowa

10 seeds: Indiana, Va Tech, TCU, Purdue

11 seeds: Penn State, VCU, Saint Mary's/Minneosta, Houston/Oregon State

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Furman

13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, William & Mary, Yale

14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Stony Brook, Northern Colorado

15 seeds: Belmont, Wright State, Quinnipac, Winthrop

16 seeds: St. Franics (PA), UC Santa Barbara, Ark Little Rock/Morgan State, Nebraksa-Omaha/Grambling State

 

Last four byes: VCU, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

Last four in: Saint Mary's, Houston, Oregon State, Minnesota

First four out: Florida, ETSU, Richmond, Cincinnati

Next four out: USC, NC State, Rhode Island, New Mexico

 

Model has us playing Belmont in the first round in the San Diego State bracket. Some other interesting first round matchups:

- Akron vs Illinois

- Liberty vs Saint Louis

- LSU vs Virginia Tech

- Colorado vs Furman

- Maryland vs Oklahoma

- Rutgers vs Duquense

- BYU vs Iowa

 

It's been cool to see these results so far! I think it's pretty accurate, and it'll be fun to see what the committee agrees with me on. 

 

 

[ellitor 33,086]

3 hours ago, Beaker said:

14-4?

The consistency required to win 14 SEC games would be incredible.  

 

Not really. The SEC is not that daunting this year.

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Hey guys, I'm a bit of a stat nerd, and have developed an algorithm based off of overall record, conference record, NET, and RPI that I update automatically every day. Nothing about this is my opinion, except for who I think will win the automatic bids for each conference, and a few game changes to keep first round conference opponents away from each other (no seeds are changed). After that, it's just ranking the teams by the lowest "value" that I've calculated (except for the play in games where I take the last four teams in a pit them against each other as 11 seeds, then the bottom 4 16 seeds and pit them against each other as well) and putting them into a model. It's projecting the bracket if the season ended today. It's a fun free time activity, figured I'd share results:

 

As of 1/13:

1 seeds: Baylor, Butler, Duke, SDSU

2 seeds: Auburn, Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton

3 seeds: Wichita State, Stanford, West Virginia, Michigan State

4 seeds: Oregon, Florida State, Louisville, Seton Hall

5 seeds: Liberty, Maryland, Villanova, Colorado

6 seeds: Kentucky, Memphis, Arkansas, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Wisconsin, Creighton

8 seeds: Akron, rutgers, UNI, BYU

9 seeds: Illinois, Duquense, Michigan, Iowa

10 seeds: Indiana, Va Tech, TCU, Purdue

11 seeds: Penn State, VCU, Saint Mary's/Minneosta, Houston/Oregon State

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Furman

13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, William & Mary, Yale

14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Stony Brook, Northern Colorado

15 seeds: Belmont, Wright State, Quinnipac, Winthrop

16 seeds: St. Franics (PA), UC Santa Barbara, Ark Little Rock/Morgan State, Nebraksa-Omaha/Grambling State

 

Last four byes: VCU, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

Last four in: Saint Mary's, Houston, Oregon State, Minnesota

First four out: Florida, ETSU, Richmond, Cincinnati

Next four out: USC, NC State, Rhode Island, New Mexico

 

Model has us playing Belmont in the first round in the San Diego State bracket. Some other interesting first round matchups:

- Akron vs Illinois

- Liberty vs Saint Louis

- LSU vs Virginia Tech

- Colorado vs Furman

- Maryland vs Oklahoma

- Rutgers vs Duquense

- BYU vs Iowa

 

It's been cool to see these results so far! I think it's pretty accurate, and it'll be fun to see what the committee agrees with me on. 

 

 

@tigerbrotha12 You might as well send this off to bracketmatrix.com & update it weekly. Would be interesting to see how yours stacks up to the 100+ other people who do it.

[Beaker 2,457]

6 hours ago, ellitor said:

Not really. The SEC is not that daunting this year.

Hope you are right and TV analysts are wrong.  They are saying it is very competitive this year. 

Either way, if Auburn goes 14-4, that would be something special for sure.

[gravejd 3,270]

9 hours ago, Beaker said:

Hope you are right and TV analysts are wrong.  They are saying it is very competitive this year. 

Either way, if Auburn goes 14-4, that would be something special for sure.

I'm not saying i expect us to have this good of record in the SEC but i think with the team we have its possible. We have a team that can have a bad night shooting or have a couple players have a bad night and it doesn't seem to impact us that much. We win with great Defense, rebounding, and relentless effort and with that kind of play you don't have the let downs that a lot of teams have. 

Comparing to last years team for example if they were not hitting their shots they could lose to teams not as talented as they were....for example getting swept by Ol Miss last season. Teams could take us out of our game at times. I don't know that this team as susceptible to having off nights. We've been down early in every SEC game this year and ended up grinding out wins. We shoot 25% from 3 and still win games. We have our leading scorer go cold for a month and other guys step up. Last years team could beat any team in the country and i don't know that this years version has that same ceiling.....but i think this year's team can be more resilient and consistent in their play week to week. 

[ellitor 33,086]

11 hours ago, Beaker said:

Hope you are right and TV analysts are wrong.  They are saying it is very competitive this year. 

Either way, if Auburn goes 14-4, that would be something special for sure.

Competitive don’t mean teams are playing at a high-level. We only have four teams that would for sure be in the tournament today. Florida put themselves back on the bubble by losing to Missouri. Of the teams who would be in the NCAA tournament today only Auburn and Kentucky could have a loss to the three bad teams net rankings wise in Texas A&M, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt and still be for sure in the tournament. LSU and Arkansas would put themselves on the bubble by losing  to any one of  those teams.

[Beaker 2,457]

2 hours ago, gravejd said:

I'm not saying i expect us to have this good of record in the SEC but i think with the team we have its possible. We have a team that can have a bad night shooting or have a couple players have a bad night and it doesn't seem to impact us that much. We win with great Defense, rebounding, and relentless effort and with that kind of play you don't have the let downs that a lot of teams have. 

Comparing to last years team for example if they were not hitting their shots they could lose to teams not as talented as they were....for example getting swept by Ol Miss last season. Teams could take us out of our game at times. I don't know that this team as susceptible to having off nights. We've been down early in every SEC game this year and ended up grinding out wins. We shoot 25% from 3 and still win games. We have our leading scorer go cold for a month and other guys step up. Last years team could beat any team in the country and i don't know that this years version has that same ceiling.....but i think this year's team can be more resilient and consistent in their play week to week. 

Definitely a 'workman's type' mantra this year.   Now give last year's team their due on D - they created an insane number of turnovers.  That gave them so many extra possessions.  This team is not on that level yet, but last year's team didn't hit their defensive prowess until mid-Feb.

 

Maybe we can develop a few more offensive looks so we have a couple more tools in the box before February. 

 

Thank-you Bruce Pearl!!!   You have made Auburn basketball FUN!

 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

On 1/13/2020 at 3:09 PM, tigerbrotha12 said:

Hey guys, I'm a bit of a stat nerd, and have developed an algorithm based off of overall record, conference record, NET, and RPI that I update automatically every day. Nothing about this is my opinion, except for who I think will win the automatic bids for each conference, and a few game changes to keep first round conference opponents away from each other (no seeds are changed). After that, it's just ranking the teams by the lowest "value" that I've calculated (except for the play in games where I take the last four teams in a pit them against each other as 11 seeds, then the bottom 4 16 seeds and pit them against each other as well) and putting them into a model. It's projecting the bracket if the season ended today. It's a fun free time activity, figured I'd share results:

 

As of 1/13:

1 seeds: Baylor, Butler, Duke, SDSU

2 seeds: Auburn, Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton

3 seeds: Wichita State, Stanford, West Virginia, Michigan State

4 seeds: Oregon, Florida State, Louisville, Seton Hall

5 seeds: Liberty, Maryland, Villanova, Colorado

6 seeds: Kentucky, Memphis, Arkansas, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Wisconsin, Creighton

8 seeds: Akron, rutgers, UNI, BYU

9 seeds: Illinois, Duquense, Michigan, Iowa

10 seeds: Indiana, Va Tech, TCU, Purdue

11 seeds: Penn State, VCU, Saint Mary's/Minneosta, Houston/Oregon State

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Furman

13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, William & Mary, Yale

14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Stony Brook, Northern Colorado

15 seeds: Belmont, Wright State, Quinnipac, Winthrop

16 seeds: St. Franics (PA), UC Santa Barbara, Ark Little Rock/Morgan State, Nebraksa-Omaha/Grambling State

 

Last four byes: VCU, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

Last four in: Saint Mary's, Houston, Oregon State, Minnesota

First four out: Florida, ETSU, Richmond, Cincinnati

Next four out: USC, NC State, Rhode Island, New Mexico

 

Model has us playing Belmont in the first round in the San Diego State bracket. Some other interesting first round matchups:

- Akron vs Illinois

- Liberty vs Saint Louis

- LSU vs Virginia Tech

- Colorado vs Furman

- Maryland vs Oklahoma

- Rutgers vs Duquense

- BYU vs Iowa

 

It's been cool to see these results so far! I think it's pretty accurate, and it'll be fun to see what the committee agrees with me on. 

 

 

1/17 Update

 

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, SDSU, Duke

2 seeds: Dayton, Gonzaga, Butler, West Virginia

3 seeds: Auburn, Stanford, Michigan State, Louisville

4 seeds: Seton Hall, Maryland, Fla St, Arizona

5 seeds: Wichita State, Liberty, Ohio State, Villanova

6 seeds: Colorado, Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan

7 seeds: Wisconsin, Oregon, Texas Tech, Creighton

8 seeds: Purdue, Va Tech, Kentucky, Marquette

9 seeds: LSU, Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers

10 seeds: BYU, Akron, Houston, Duquense

11 seeds: ETSU/Minnesota, NCST/Penn State, UNI, Saint Mary's

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Yale, USC, Florida

13 seeds: Furman, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech

14 seeds: Northern Colorado, Belmont, William & Mary, Colgate

15 seeds: Winthrop, Wright State, St. Francis (PA), Quinnipac

16 seeds: Arkansas Little Rock, Nebraska-Omaha, UC Santa Barbara/Hartford, Grambling State/NCA&T

 

Last four byes: Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, USC, Florida

Last four in: NCST, ETSU, Minnesota, Penn State

First four out: Indiana, Washington, VCU, Alabama

Next four out: Richmond, TCU, Texas, Georgetown

 

Model had us playing against Belmont in the SDSU bracket, but I had to switch us and Stanford around since teams from the same conference who have played each other twice during the regular season AND conference tournament cannot play until regional semi-finals (sweet sixteen). This only happens to one or two teams every time I run the model and it just so happened to be us and Arkansas this time. Although we only play Arky once during the regular season, there remains a possibility that we could play them in the SEC Tournament, and this game not be eligible. Thus, we swap with Stanford, and are now the 3 seed in the Duke bracket, taking on 14 seeded Northern Colorado, with our second round matchup being with the winner of the 6 Colorado vs 11 ETSU/Minnesota game. I'd love an athletic rematch with the Gophers....

 

Some interesting games in the Round of 64:

5 Villanova vs 12 Florida

6 Michigan vs 11 Saint Mary's

8 Purdue vs 9 LSU

5 Wichita State vs 12 Saint Louis

6 Colorado vs 11 ETSU/Minnesota

7 Wisconsin vs 10 BYU

8 Kentucky vs 9 Illinois

5 Ohio State vs 12 USC

7 Texas Tech vs 10 Houston

8 Va Tech vs 9 Iowa

6 Arkansas vs 11 NCST/Penn State

7 Oregon vs 10 Akron

 

I'm in the process of submitting this to BracketMatrix.Com but am still getting it verified an all that. I think it's pretty accurate, and it's a lot of fun to keep up with

 

 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

On 1/17/2020 at 11:24 AM, tigerbrotha12 said:

1/17 Update

 

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, SDSU, Duke

2 seeds: Dayton, Gonzaga, Butler, West Virginia

3 seeds: Auburn, Stanford, Michigan State, Louisville

4 seeds: Seton Hall, Maryland, Fla St, Arizona

5 seeds: Wichita State, Liberty, Ohio State, Villanova

6 seeds: Colorado, Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan

7 seeds: Wisconsin, Oregon, Texas Tech, Creighton

8 seeds: Purdue, Va Tech, Kentucky, Marquette

9 seeds: LSU, Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers

10 seeds: BYU, Akron, Houston, Duquense

11 seeds: ETSU/Minnesota, NCST/Penn State, UNI, Saint Mary's

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Yale, USC, Florida

13 seeds: Furman, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech

14 seeds: Northern Colorado, Belmont, William & Mary, Colgate

15 seeds: Winthrop, Wright State, St. Francis (PA), Quinnipac

16 seeds: Arkansas Little Rock, Nebraska-Omaha, UC Santa Barbara/Hartford, Grambling State/NCA&T

 

Last four byes: Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, USC, Florida

Last four in: NCST, ETSU, Minnesota, Penn State

First four out: Indiana, Washington, VCU, Alabama

Next four out: Richmond, TCU, Texas, Georgetown

 

Model had us playing against Belmont in the SDSU bracket, but I had to switch us and Stanford around since teams from the same conference who have played each other twice during the regular season AND conference tournament cannot play until regional semi-finals (sweet sixteen). This only happens to one or two teams every time I run the model and it just so happened to be us and Arkansas this time. Although we only play Arky once during the regular season, there remains a possibility that we could play them in the SEC Tournament, and this game not be eligible. Thus, we swap with Stanford, and are now the 3 seed in the Duke bracket, taking on 14 seeded Northern Colorado, with our second round matchup being with the winner of the 6 Colorado vs 11 ETSU/Minnesota game. I'd love an athletic rematch with the Gophers....

 

Some interesting games in the Round of 64:

5 Villanova vs 12 Florida

6 Michigan vs 11 Saint Mary's

8 Purdue vs 9 LSU

5 Wichita State vs 12 Saint Louis

6 Colorado vs 11 ETSU/Minnesota

7 Wisconsin vs 10 BYU

8 Kentucky vs 9 Illinois

5 Ohio State vs 12 USC

7 Texas Tech vs 10 Houston

8 Va Tech vs 9 Iowa

6 Arkansas vs 11 NCST/Penn State

7 Oregon vs 10 Akron

 

I'm in the process of submitting this to BracketMatrix.Com but am still getting it verified an all that. I think it's pretty accurate, and it's a lot of fun to keep up with

 

 

1/20

1 seeds: Baylor, SDSU, Gonzaga, Dayton

2 seeds: Michigan State, Butler, Kansas, Duke

3 seeds: Arizona, Oregon, Seton Hall, West Virginia

4 seeds: Auburn, Stanford, Maryland, Louisville

5 seeds: Ohio State, Villanova, LSU, Rutgers

6 seeds: Liberty, Fla St, Wisconsin, Iowa

7 seeds: Memphis, Colorado, Wichita State, Arkansas

8 seeds: Purdue, Kentucky, Michigan, Texas Tech

9 seeds: Marquette, BYU, UNI, Creighton

10 seeds: USC, Penn State, Florida, Saint Mary's

11 seeds: Illinois, ETSU, Va Tech/Richmond, VCU/Alabama

12 seeds: Akron, Yale, Duquense, Houston

13 seeds: Belmont, Northern Colorado, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech

14 seeds:  New Mexico State, Colgate, Furman, William & Mary

15 seeds: Winthrop, Wright State, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA)

16 seeds: North Carolina A&T/Hartford, Nebraska-Omaha/Grambling State, Quinnipac, Arkansas Little Rock

 

Last four byes: Duquense, ETSU, Saint Mary's, Purdue

Last four in: Virginia Tech, VCU, Alabama, Richmond

First four out: Indiana, NCST, Minnesota, Saint Louis

Next four out: Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Washington, Virginia

 

We slipped to a four seed after this week in my model. Bammer is also in the tournament in the "Last Four In" category, and would have to play a first round game. 

Only 6 SEC teams in as opposed to 7 last season IRL.

Time to get back to the winning ways and move back up towards that 1 line 

[ellitor 33,086]

Dropped to a 5 seed on CBS. ESPN hasn't updated since the Florida loss.