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Season (non-conference) Review


JwgreDeux

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Well the non-conference isfinished and league play starts this weekend, time to take a look at our preseason predictions and where we stand (We still have Iowa State on the schedule).  

From my season preview:

"My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. 

(I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition).

War Eagle. "

"After seeing the exhibition game, I am going to improve my outlook on the season slightly to another 20 win season, going 20-10 and 10-8 in the league."

So, I predicted a 10-2 non-conference record and we are sitting at 12-0, but I would like to point out we are only 2 points away from being 10-2 (1 point win vs South Alabama, and 1 more point given up in regulation would have been a loss vs Furman which we won in OT). We have 3 other wins by single digit margins, so I think we need to both relish being undefeated and realize that we aren't as dominant as our record and some stats would indicate.  Let's take a look at some good and some bad:

GOOD

  • Scoring is better than I feared. While we don't have an established scoring pecking order, we are getting contributions from several different guys. 
  • Defense has been as advertised. While we aren't a smothering choke you out type defense, the defense has been more physical and more sound this season while still creating some havoc. IF we are going to make a run at another SEC title, the defense will have to continue to improve. 
  • CBP seems to like the rotations we have, as there has not been a lot of shuffling, which has allowed us to build some chemistry quicker than I expected, as evidenced by the close wins mentioned above. 
  • We are healthy. Wiley looks good, Purifoy looks good, and we have more depth on the bench than I can remember. We have pretty quality guys that can't get many minutes, what a luxury. 
  • Newcomers are contributing. Okoro has been better than I expected right out of the gate. Cambridge is also playing at a higher level than I think we thought, Flanigan is giving steady minutes and Johnson has shown some flashes as well. 
  • We are undefeated, I know that seems like a cheap observation, but it says something about this group that they have found ways to win tight games. Some have been ugly, but a win is a win, and we are in great shape by all measures right now. 

BAD

  • We haven't established a clear scoring pecking order. We need to establish a 1-2 punch so to speak. Samir seems to be our closer, but we are going to need more defined expectations as league play will be tough. Who is the number 2 closer if/when the trap Samir or deny him the ball at the end of a game?
  • Free throw shooting will get us at some point if we don't find a way to fix/improve it. 
  • 3 point shooting is just not very good. The numbers aren't terrible, but we will start seeing more athletic teams sag off and crowd the paint to force us to make some shots, I'm not sure we can at this point. 
  • While we are getting some newcomer production, I'm worried about depth at the point spot. Jones has all but disappeared from the rotation, and Samir will struggle playing the 1 as a backup as defense improves in league play. He is a good combo guard, but not a great ball handler end to end to run the 1 for very long. Can McCormick hold up in league play is a big question right now. He has shown the ability to cut down on his turnovers, but there are still questions for him to answer. 
  • Wiley is still inconsistent. It seems he gives us a double double or nothing, I know that isn't actually the case, but that is the way many of the games have felt. He has to mentally commit to asserting himself on the board every game and the rest will come. 
  • I'm not sure we know as much about our team as I would like. While our schedule overall is a good one built for favorable metrics, we haven't faced any truly elite tallent. So, I'm not confident that we are as good as our record would seem to indicate. Time will tell. 

 

So there it is. The SEC might be a bit down, so maybe my 10-8 prediction is off. However, there are still some good teams and tough games on the slate. @State, vs UGA, @bama, @UF, @OleMiss, vs UK, @Arky, @UGA, and @UK are all games that we will be very tough. I hope to be doing a Season Review that our guys were a few game better than I predicted, we shall see. 

 

War Eagle!!!!!!!!

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My thoughts are we will end the season just inside the top 25 but I just don’t see any chance we stay top 10.  Middle tourney seed.  Maybe a second weekend team.  No titles.

I’ll be delighted if we are better than that.  75% at home, maybe a touch better.  50/50 on the road.  So maybe we hit 11 or 12 sec wins?   I think we could be a tough team against anyone else in conference.  Nobody will be confident against this team.

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57 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

so I think we need to both relish being undefeated and realize that we aren't as dominant as our record and some stats would indicate.

This bit sums up my feelings pretty well. I am super happy we have not lost but i'm not really sure what the ceiling and floor of this team is. I could see us going into conference play and really struggling or i could see us go into conference play and hitting our stride and becoming the best team in the SEC this season. 

I think the current answer to who our #2 closer is would be Javon. I hope Purifoy and Okoro can assume this role but neither has shown they are ready to consistently provide offense when you have to have it. Purifoy's big game against Lipscomb came at a good time. I hope it is a sign of things to come and not an aberration. I also think we need a little more out of Wiley if we are going to get to the "best in SEC level".....he is averaging about 10 pts and 9 rebounds a game and we could use both those to go up a couple notches with our lack of consistent outside shooting.  

One thing for sure is that i don't see us being an easy win for any team that we play. Our guys play extremely hard and do a lot of the little things required to be great. Rebounding and Defense will keep this team in the "good" category and offense will be what determines if they can cross over to "great". Looking forward to a tough test against State

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Great stuff @JwgreDeux only thing I disagree with is your comment on Wiley. The last 9 games he's been a monster for us and in the way we need him to be -- being the garbage man cleaning up inside and altering and blocking shots. His minutes hover around ~20 mins or so a game so he's doing quite a bit of damage in his minutes IMO. His performance against NCSU I think will be what we will need in SEC play but with more minutes. We aren't really asking him to go to work in the post like we did early in the year and I think that's good for Austin and good for our team. I think you've mentioned that we are more effective when we aren't running sets for him and let him get his buckets off misses and drive and dish opportunities when the D helps off him. He will never have a polished post game here at AU so I think this is the way to put him in a position to succeed. He often times posts too far from the bucket and then shoots a clunky hook shot that is not particularly reliable although he does hit it from time to time.

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19 hours ago, Tiger said:

Great stuff @JwgreDeux only thing I disagree with is your comment on Wiley. The last 9 games he's been a monster for us and in the way we need him to be -- being the garbage man cleaning up inside and altering and blocking shots. His minutes hover around ~20 mins or so a game so he's doing quite a bit of damage in his minutes IMO. His performance against NCSU I think will be what we will need in SEC play but with more minutes. We aren't really asking him to go to work in the post like we did early in the year and I think that's good for Austin and good for our team. I think you've mentioned that we are more effective when we aren't running sets for him and let him get his buckets off misses and drive and dish opportunities when the D helps off him. He will never have a polished post game here at AU so I think this is the way to put him in a position to succeed. He often times posts too far from the bucket and then shoots a clunky hook shot that is not particularly reliable although he does hit it from time to time.

I agree his stats are pretty good, and I said that I knew his numbers were good, but was talking more about his presence vs his production. 
 

I agree we are using him better, in the way I thought we would/should, and as you said his numbers are up. 
 

I should have included as a “good” that he is progressing, even if he hasn’t fully tapped his potential yet. 
 

 

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On 1/3/2020 at 11:31 AM, JwgreDeux said:

Wiley is still inconsistent. It seems he gives us a double double or nothing, I know that isn't actually the case, but that is the way many of the games have felt. He has to mentally commit to asserting himself on the board every game and the rest will come. 

On 1/3/2020 at 11:31 AM, JwgreDeux said:

We are healthy. Wiley looks good, Purifoy looks good, and we have more depth on the bench than I can remember. We have pretty quality guys that can't get many minutes, what a luxury. 

 

23 hours ago, cole256 said:

Wiley in your bad 😂 come on man, it's ok

I know he hasn't been "bad." And you could very well be right that I shouldn't have him in that section, I did give him a mention in the good. My thought isn't that he is bad, it's that he isn't at the level he was projected to be, or where I think he could be with his talent. He just hasn't been consistently dominant. 

Maybe I should have put him in the Good, but said not good enough? WOuld that be better?

 

 

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Our 3 pt shooting had been bad. Missing contested shots is one thing, but clanking off Wide open shots is something all together different. We need to be able to convert those.

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48 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Our 3 pt shooting had been bad. Missing contested shots is one thing, but clanking off Wide open shots is something all together different. We need to be able to convert those.

I think we just lack pure shooters on this team. We have talented guys that can make shots but no one that really scares the other teams from deep. I think Purifoy could be that guy but for some reason he is about the streakiest 3 pt shooter i have ever seen. Which is odd because his shooting stroke looks so pretty. Jamal i think could also be that sharp shooter type but he is just as streaky as the rest. I'd say right now Javon is the best deep shooter we have which is very surprising at this point in the season. 

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This team really could use one senior Mustapha Heron. His individual scoring ability would fill the one really glaring hole we have as a team. I know he was trying to stay in school for as little as possible and his mother's health is more important than anything but I can only imagine what we'd look like with him on the roster. Yeah our lineups would be looking much different and the starters would likely be different but he is a certified bucket getter and we don't have any of those. Luckiliy we have had a different guy step up in each game and I think we are going to continue to see that happen this year for us to be successful.

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7 hours ago, bigbird said:

Our 3 pt shooting had been bad. Missing contested shots is one thing, but clanking off Wide open shots is something all together different. We need to be able to convert those.

This is what I would say would happen, in the beginning it looked as if we were still that great shooting team but like I said as the season went on eventually the scouting would catch up and they would start packing the lane in and we would have to use the post to open the floor up for us a bit. This is why Bruce said that stuff he said about passing he did that game. It's clockwork, we either will do that or we will slow down as we continue in conference. 

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8 hours ago, gravejd said:

I think we just lack pure shooters on this team.

Looks that way....including foul shooting which is a serious liability in my view.   If you can't hit the 3s, BP can work on the offensive scheme to arrive at other options....but when the guy is on the foul line there is no plan B. ...especially for the guys who handle the ball so much at the end of a game.  

It would be nice to have at least one player who  nobody dared to foul because they knew it was a sure 2 points.

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12 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Looks that way....including foul shooting which is a serious liability in my view.   If you can't hit the 3s, BP can work on the offensive scheme to arrive at other options....but when the guy is on the foul line there is no plan B. ...especially for the guys who handle the ball so much at the end of a game.  

It would be nice to have at least one player who  nobody dared to foul because they knew it was a sure 2 points.

We did much better with free throws against State so maybe they are figuring it out. Javon was 8-11 I think so that is huge improvement from him

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16 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

We are making more FT’s than other teams attempt.  I am irritated when the percentage is less than 70-75%, but the silver lining is the made numbers 

This doesn't forgive our poor FT shooting but it's being overlooked. We are forcing our way to the line and bullying our FT totals up even if it's in an inefficient manner

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On 1/3/2020 at 11:31 AM, JwgreDeux said:

BAD

  • We haven't established a clear scoring pecking order. We need to establish a 1-2 punch so to speak. Samir seems to be our closer, but we are going to need more defined expectations as league play will be tough. Who is the number 2 closer if/when the trap Samir or deny him the ball at the end of a game?
  • Free throw shooting will get us at some point if we don't find a way to fix/improve it. 
  • 3 point shooting is just not very good. The numbers aren't terrible, but we will start seeing more athletic teams sag off and crowd the paint to force us to make some shots, I'm not sure we can at this point. 
  • While we are getting some newcomer production, I'm worried about depth at the point spot. Jones has all but disappeared from the rotation, and Samir will struggle playing the 1 as a backup as defense improves in league play. He is a good combo guard, but not a great ball handler end to end to run the 1 for very long. Can McCormick hold up in league play is a big question right now. He has shown the ability to cut down on his turnovers, but there are still questions for him to answer. 
  • Wiley is still inconsistent. It seems he gives us a double double or nothing, I know that isn't actually the case, but that is the way many of the games have felt. He has to mentally commit to asserting himself on the board every game and the rest will come. 
  • I'm not sure we know as much about our team as I would like. While our schedule overall is a good one built for favorable metrics, we haven't faced any truly elite tallent. So, I'm not confident that we are as good as our record would seem to indicate. Time will tell. 

 

16 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

We are making more FT’s than other teams attempt.  I am irritated when the percentage is less than 70-75%, but the silver lining is the made numbers 

 

6 minutes ago, Tiger said:

This doesn't forgive our poor FT shooting but it's being overlooked. We are forcing our way to the line and bullying our FT totals up even if it's in an inefficient manner

Our free throw shooting is poor right now. Volume is definitely a byproduct of CBP's offensive strategy this season, but missing front end of one-and-ones is basically a turnover. We have to improve this area as this season progresses. 

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6 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

 

 

Our free throw shooting is poor right now. Volume is definitely a byproduct of CBP's offensive strategy this season, but missing front end of one-and-ones is basically a turnover. We have to improve this area as this season progresses. 

For sure. The front end of one and ones are especially painful. We would be blowing teams out if we could get our FT shooting in order.

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I ignorantly gloss over the front end 1 and 1 miss as a turnover.  I ageee, It is.

a week or 2 ago CBP addresses it.  Said they work on it plenty and it’s mental.  Inferred something about getting someone to help with that.  Sports psychologist maybe?

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On 1/6/2020 at 6:11 PM, cole256 said:

This is what I would say would happen, in the beginning it looked as if we were still that great shooting team but like I said as the season went on eventually the scouting would catch up and they would start packing the lane in and we would have to use the post to open the floor up for us a bit. This is why Bruce said that stuff he said about passing he did that game. It's clockwork, we either will do that or we will slow down as we continue in conference. 

I think most expected us to take a step back shooting, and question was what would we do about it. It's pretty clear that this team is generating most of the offense off of dribble drive as I said it would. That is where our strength is, didn't see us trying to work through the post and still don't think that is the direction this team will go. Okoro is our best post up option at times, but overall I hope we will continue to penetrate and attack. 

On 1/7/2020 at 1:06 PM, mustache eagle said:

I ignorantly gloss over the front end 1 and 1 miss as a turnover.  I ageee, It is.

a week or 2 ago CBP addresses it.  Said they work on it plenty and it’s mental.  Inferred something about getting someone to help with that.  Sports psychologist maybe?

It was good enough to be a factor in the W vs Vandy. Hopefully the improvement continues. 

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5 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

I think most expected us to take a step back shooting, and question was what would we do about it. It's pretty clear that this team is generating most of the offense off of dribble drive as I said it would. That is where our strength is, didn't see us trying to work through the post and still don't think that is the direction this team will go. Okoro is our best post up option at times, but overall I hope we will continue to penetrate and attack. 

It was good enough to be a factor in the W vs Vandy. Hopefully the improvement continues. 

I disagree completely it's been dribble drive and it's certainly hasn't been Okoro on the post. You're not going to see what winery

Wiley does unless he scores 50 and even then you'd say it wasn't really him, which is cool everybody usually have favorites and not favorites. Im hoping Wiley doesn't get hurt because if he did we wouldn't even be a top 20 team anymore. 

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Last year Wiley was fouled almost every time he got the ball inside.  They knew he would probably miss the front end or both free throws which ever the case.  Last night he made 'em pay and looked like a guy with great confidence. If Okoro can improve his shooting a little bit we have a chance to pick up another title.

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1 hour ago, cole256 said:

I disagree completely it's been dribble drive and it's certainly hasn't been Okoro on the post. You're not going to see what winery

Wiley does unless he scores 50 and even then you'd say it wasn't really him, which is cool everybody usually have favorites and not favorites. Im hoping Wiley doesn't get hurt because if he did we wouldn't even be a top 20 team anymore. 

I wasn’t saying OKoro posts up often, simply thus far he seems to actually have the best post back to the goal offense when he does post up. I’m not hating on Wiley. I think he is a very good player. He was huge against Vandy (and I gave his rebounding props in that thread), but he is probably the 4th most valuable guy on the team. We all do have favorites. We disagree, that cool, but I’m not sure how you can watch us play and not accept that we are a dribble drive team. McCormick, OKoro, and Samir all dribble drive to create team offense. We have some pick and roll actions and use the high post vs the zone (OKoro in the high post) but more possessions than not, a guard is dribbling to the basket to create offense. We can go back and check the film, but come on. I get differences of opinion on evaluating players, but the style of offense if self explanatory. 

How is Wiley getting all of his production? Are we throwing it to him in the post like you suggest, or is he getting it as I predicted? Off rebounding and rolling to the rim off pick and roll actions? 

We are an uptempo team that thrives while playing free, why in the world would we want them to slow down and go to post up ISO’s? 

Also, props to WIley for improving his free throws, he looks great recently at the line. 

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32 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I wasn’t saying OKoro posts up often, simply thus far he seems to actually have the best post back to the goal offense when he does post up. I’m not hating on Wiley. I think he is a very good player. He was huge against Vandy (and I gave his rebounding props in that thread), but he is probably the 4th most valuable guy on the team. We all do have favorites. We disagree, that cool, but I’m not sure how you can watch us play and not accept that we are a dribble drive team. McCormick, OKoro, and Samir all dribble drive to create team offense. We have some pick and roll actions and use the high post vs the zone (OKoro in the high post) but more possessions than not, a guard is dribbling to the basket to create offense. We can go back and check the film, but come on. I get differences of opinion on evaluating players, but the style of offense if self explanatory. 

How is Wiley getting all of his production? Are we throwing it to him in the post like you suggest, or is he getting it as I predicted? Off rebounding and rolling to the rim off pick and roll actions? 

We are an uptempo team that thrives while playing free, why in the world would we want them to slow down and go to post up ISO’s? 

Also, props to WIley for improving his free throws, he looks great recently at the line. 

Like I originally thought when saying operate through the post you imagine only one style of basketball, so I think that's where you're probably missing it.

First rolling off pick and rolls is working the post. Secondly it couldn't be off dribble drive when your guards don't even have good assist numbers. McCormick is decent and that's about to go down...

When it's said to work thru the post that doesn't mean iso slow ball.....why would I even think that when I'm the person that said years ago he was moving to uptempo when people were complaining about his big men playing out the post at times? 

Our guards aren't even good enough to create their own shots how on Earth would they be good enough to run the offense off iso? They don't shoot well enough, they don't get to the goal so where's your drive in the dribble drive? They work off screens and pick and roll. Yes I know we use Okoro in the high post just the same as we used chumma, I did an entire write up about what chumma's role was in the offense and Okoro is essentially doing that. 

4 th most valuable player is absolutely ludicrous though. He's more than that off defense alone. Him or Okoro and arguments could be made for either one

And our perimeter defense isn't good at all really. Lucky for them Wiley has been good on that end too. You've had big praise for other players for much much less. 

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On 1/4/2020 at 8:54 AM, JwgreDeux said:

I agree his stats are pretty good, and I said that I knew his numbers were good, but was talking more about his presence vs his production. 
 

I agree we are using him better, in the way I thought we would/should, and as you said his numbers are up. 
 

I should have included as a “good” that he is progressing, even if he hasn’t fully tapped his potential yet. 
 

 

Thanks for your posts. Good to have very knowledgeable input. Keep it coming and WDE. 

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