PTB Update

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

And I acknowledged that we may win 9 next year. Or 6 or 7. I’m basing my opinion on recent history. 

But as bad as he has been, Gus has only lost 7 games once and never less than. And an entire dissertation could be written about all that went into that season going that badly. In fact, 2015 provides the most evidence of all that our actual worst case scenario is likely better than 6 wins. 

[DAG 33,971]

1 minute ago, Gowebb11 said:

Like this: lose to UAT and UGA on the road (recent performance indicates that’s very likely) lose to LSU (very possible) lose to TAMU who loses all of 5 seniors this year, lose to an ACC team with a really strong QB and great coach, then get upset by a likely improved Ole Miss team, or an increasingly competitive UK team. As stated in my OP, I can also see how we win 9 games as well. Gus’s history of losing at least 4 games a year career at AU says that both scenarios are possible. 

Dude you are all over the place. I can't respond to all of your several posts, but I will say that I do think we have the talent to compete with LSU,UGA and BAMA annually. The problem is those three teams ALSO HAVE OVERWHELMING TALENT. All three of them have played in the NC game in the last three years.  I also do think we have more talent over MAJORITY of the teams we face. Based on that, we should win 8 games year in and year out off principle. Now, you just said you aren't a prisoner of the moment and you go off passed history. Okay, so Gus does pretty well in OOC games. Why would you not give him the benefit of a doubt against UNC? He has proven he can best Jimbo Fisher. Why would you not give him the benefit of a doubt in this game (5-2 record overall)? Gus has a 6-1 record against Ole Miss and you think that is a potential upset? 

[Gowebb11 9,314]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

But as bad as he has been, Gus has only lost 7 games once and never less than. And an entire dissertation could be written about all that went into that season going that badly. In fact, 2015 provides the most evidence of all that our actual worst case scenario is likely better than 6 wins. 

In 2015 we finished 6-6 then won the bowl game. And I hope you’re right about winning more. But I went into this season the same I’m going into next season. We will finish somewhere between contending for an SEC West title and finishing 4th or 5th in the SEC West. That’s based on history, not just an opinion. We have a lot of pieces returning to be strong. But we have to rebuild our o line, our secondary, and replace two dominant d lineman. Our best o lineman is coming off his third knee surgery, and none of our 4 JUCO signees will be in spring ball. A lot could go right and we could win big. But there are more questions than answers right now. 

[DAG 33,971]

42 minutes ago, Mikey said:

We have adequate talent. Our talent level is lower than our primary competition, which is UAT, LSU and UGA. We're about equal, talent-wise, with A&M. We may have overwhelming talent when compared to most of our non-conference schedule but we can't and don't overwhelm the teams fans most want us to beat.

I agree with this, which is why we are at a rock and a hard place right now. Also, I don't think anyone is asking for our team to overwhelm or dominate those rivals. We need to get to a point of being competitive with ALL OF THEM. If we can be competitive with Bama there is no reason why we should be getting blasted by UGA.

[AFTiger 282]

Alabama has the lowest payroll in the NFL

[triangletiger 1,599]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

I don't think some of these fans get it. It is more wishful thinking . Gus is a lot but he is no damn fool. He is not going to put himself to be 6-6 unless there is external circumstances way out of his control.  Gus knew the seat was getting HOT after the UGA and all of a sudden, the team picks it up.  He is aggressive, he is getting the ball to playmakers who often do not get it, etc. The seat cools off and he goes back to his old ways. We are legitimately stuck as fans. 

This is the part I don't understand.  If he's capable of putting together a great gameplan and motivating his team to play Alabama or LSU, why does he seem incapable of doing it for other, seemingly lesser, teams (like Minnesota)?

[triangletiger 1,599]

7 minutes ago, AFTiger said:

Alabama has the lowest payroll in the NFL

I doubt that's true.  They are at least higher than the Bengals.

[DAG 33,971]

Just now, triangletiger said:

This is the part I don't understand.  If he's capable of putting together a great gameplan and motivating his team to play Alabama or LSU, why does he seem incapable of doing it for other, seemingly lesser, teams (like Minnesota)?

That is the 7 million dollar question my friend. 

[abw0004 10,110]

Here is the reality of where we stand and why the board is thinking the way they do.  And this just looking at it from a factual standpoint that can be applied to any team or sports program.  If you do not donate to Auburn University, or are even a season ticket holder at a minimum they will not take what you think into account.  Money is the motivator.  If you take away a revenue stream they will listen.  So calling Greene will do almost nothing and you will get the generic responses you have been getting when calling.  For example, would you listen to someone randomly calling you telling you how to do your job that is not your superior?  Of course not, your employer makes those decisions. 

The majority of fans who own season tickets (like myself) buy the tickets out of the love for the school and will buy tickets if we are in the 2013 season, or 2012.  But even if you gave up your tickets in protest to try and get the school to act may still be for nothing.  Why?  There is a waitlist to buy season tickets and other fans want you to give up your tickets so they can finally nab them.  My impression is the majority of posters on here are not season ticket holders and might go to one game a year, which is perfectly fine.  The tickets are not cheap and you need to dedicate your entire Saturday to the game, which can be difficult for families.  If you decide not to go to that one game, it is still not the University that gets hurt.  It is the third-party seller, as well as the Auburn community as you won't be shopping at their stores or dining in their restaurants.

Who you really need to get in touch with are the donors.  The donors are the ones who turn the tide, so to speak.  That will still be difficult as donors have the option of anonymity when making donations, or donating through an LLC.

[lca408 366]

Idk if 2015 was the actual worst case scenario. As bad as the offense was, the defense was on its way to improving and holding its own. It was the reason we kept many of those losses close, like the Alabama game and the Ole Miss game. We also at least had Barber who was a hard runner even if he didn’t have great talent, and a decent of inexperienced O line. That team’s talent was solid, good enough to be competitive in the league. We just had a big bust at QB and that affected everything else. Could have been worse.

In general though, I agree. Gus probably isn’t going to have a 3-9 season. But I could see 5-7 as a possibility. Not this year mind you, but in a downward spiral of bad recruiting and Gus “holding on too tight” and “losing the edge.”

[McLoofus 35,182]

10 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

In 2015 we finished 6-6 then won the bowl game. And I hope you’re right about winning more. But I went into this season the same I’m going into next season. We will finish somewhere between contending for an SEC West title and finishing 4th or 5th in the SEC West. That’s based on history, not just an opinion. We have a lot of pieces returning to be strong. But we have to rebuild our o line, our secondary, and replace two dominant d lineman. Our best o lineman is coming off his third knee surgery, and none of our 4 JUCO signees will be in spring ball. A lot could go right and we could win big. But there are more questions than answers right now. 

Oh, I'm not predicting anything special. But special isn't needed for us to chalk up 6 wins before the season even gets started. And that's not including UNC in the Benz or Kentucky at home. We also get TAMU and LSU at home. And all of LSU, uga and bama just lost their multi-year starters at QB. (uga and bama lose a TON of talent elsewhere, too.)

This is as easy a schedule as we're going to get, and even though we're replacing a lot of experience, it's not like most of those guys are NFL talent. The 2020 roster will be as deep as Auburn has had since 2004 and maybe going back even further than that. 

Again, we're light years ahead of where we were in 2015. Just look up the wiki for that season. It was a waking nightmare. It was Gus's rock bottom. And rock bottom was 7 wins. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

21 minutes ago, lca408 said:

That team’s talent was solid, good enough to be competitive in the league.

Exactly.

Quote

We just had a big bust at QB and that affected everything else. Could have been worse.

Duke Williams, by far our best WR and probably the best pure pass catcher this team has seen since Frank Sanders, broke a teammate's jaw and got kicked off the team after 3 games. Jovon Robinson, by far our most talented RB, only played in like 6 games because of attitude issues. Roc Thomas, the 5* sophomore, was similarly unproductive. We tried to replace a Rimington winner and 4-year starter at center with a converted tackle. We had to bring the massive bust of a QB back on the field when his backup got hurt. We had a kid get murdered in the offseason.

Also, you say "just" had a big bust at QB... but then you immediately point out yourself what is wrong with phrasing it that way. Having "just" a big bust at QB is like having "just" 3 tires on a race car.

AND YET... we won 7 games. Because like you said, even Peyton Barber and a sometimes healthy Sean White and a defense coming off one of the worst seasons in program history can stumble their way into a bowl win. Unless we have the same kind of nightmare offseason that team did, this 2020 squad is in much, much better shape. 

[lca408 366]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

Also, you say "just" had a big bust at QB... but then you immediately point out yourself what is wrong with phrasing it that way. Having "just" a big bust at QB is like having "just" 3 tires on a race car.

AND YET... we won 7 games. Because like you said, even Peyton Barber and a sometimes healthy Sean White and a defense coming off one of the worst seasons in program history can stumble their way into a bowl win. Unless we have the same kind of nightmare offseason that team did, this 2020 squad is in much, much better shape. 

The reason I said “just had a big bust at QB” was to illustrate how bad that situation was. You ran through the litany of issues with offensive personnel other than QB, but honestly, with a better QB, hell even with 2016 healthy Sean White, Auburn wins 8 or more games that year. Barber still got that 1,000 yards rushing in 2015. The wins were there to be had against MSU, Arkansas, and UGA at least, possibly even Ole Miss. And we still managed .500. All I’m saying is, it’s not the worst case scenario. Things could have gone even worse. 

Thats certianly not saying that they will however. Malzahn has the ability to keep the locker room tight so I doubt it would get much worse than that if it even gets to that point. The SEC is not a deep league in terms of talent and quality teams, at least in the last couple of years. A talented Auburn team with a respectable defense and some talent on offense can manage 7-8 wins a year pretty easily, as we continue to do almost every year now. It remains to be seen if we can hit that elusive 10+ wins a year mark more than just once every 4 or 5 years.

[McLoofus 35,182]

7 minutes ago, lca408 said:

The reason I said “just had a big bust at QB” was to illustrate how bad that situation was. You ran through the litany of issues with offensive personnel other than QB, but honestly, with a better QB, hell even with 2016 healthy Sean White, Auburn wins 8 or more games that year. Barber still got that 1,000 yards rushing in 2015. The wins were there to be had against MSU, Arkansas, and UGA at least, possibly even Ole Miss. And we still managed .500. All I’m saying is, it’s not the worst case scenario. Things could have gone even worse. 

Thats certianly not saying that they will however. Malzahn has the ability to keep the locker room tight so I doubt it would get much worse than that if it even gets to that point. The SEC is not a deep league in terms of talent and quality teams, at least in the last couple of years. A talented Auburn team with a respectable defense and some talent on offense can manage 7-8 wins a year pretty easily, as we continue to do almost every year now. It remains to be seen if we can hit that elusive 10+ wins a year mark more than just once every 4 or 5 years.

Word. You, DAG and I are all saying the same thing, I think. 

[ToraGirl 5,498]

3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Oh, I'm not predicting anything special. But special isn't needed for us to chalk up 6 wins before the season even gets started. And that's not including UNC in the Benz or Kentucky at home. We also get TAMU and LSU at home. And all of LSU, uga and bama just lost their multi-year starters at QB. (uga and bama lose a TON of talent elsewhere, too.)

This is as easy a schedule as we're going to get, and even though we're replacing a lot of experience, it's not like most of those guys are NFL talent. The 2020 roster will be as deep as Auburn has had since 2004 and maybe going back even further than that. 

Again, we're light years ahead of where we were in 2015. Just look up the wiki for that season. It was a waking nightmare. It was Gus's rock bottom. And rock bottom was 7 wins. 

Loof...IYO...assuming MS has upgraded in both places, how long/can we maintain the gameday edge, talent aside?

[Tiger 8,818]

We have had enough talent over the years to be hovering around a .500 winning percentage against our rivals.

We certainly are not so far behind our rivals in talent that we should be 7-15 against them over 7 years. 

The coaching has been suspect at best in those losses. Remember some of those losses include squandering a 21-0 lead. Losing to barely bowl eligible UGA teams.

This doesn't mention the 4-3 record vs Miss State. Or losing to UT. Or UCF. 

Lol and some are scared of becoming UT when we lost to them with our current HC...at home.

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 hour ago, ToraGirl said:

Loof...IYO...assuming MS has upgraded in both places, how long/can we maintain the gameday edge, talent aside?

Good question. Have to hope we're good next year. After that? Who knows. 

Well, the good news is that if KiffyKat is successful, he won't be there long.

Leach at MSU, I dunno. He might find his Justin Herbert or Ryan Mallet (Petrino at Arky seems to me to be the best case parallel) or whatever and be a tough out. If he can win 9 games a year there? Maybe he never leaves. But there's also the matter of whether or not he can do that there. And it's Mike Leach. Maybe the least normal guy in the sport. He doesn't seem to have the same motivations as other coaches. And he won't have a long leash. 

Crazy that we're even wondering about it, but that's the hand we've been dealt. 

[auburn4ever 1,266]

With a rebuilding coming in 2020, the West just got harder with the hiring of Kiffin, Leach & Pittman. Not to mention the coaches that's here for a while. Saban, Fisher & O. There's no way in he'll Malzahn can ever compete with those teams year in and year out. Gus has fallen all the way down to the bottom of the poll of coach in the SEC West. I truly hope Allen Greene and powers at be enjoying watching Malzahn win 7 to 9 games every single year. Gus Malzahn is a high school that's getting paid 7 million a year for losing 4 or more games every year for the last 6 years in a row.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

In 2015, Malzahn did go 6-6 in the regular season. Auburn had to beat Memphis 31-10 in the MIGHTY 'Birmingham bowl' to end the 2015 season at 7-6 overall. Oh yeah, in conference play that same year, Gus had a 2-6 SEC record.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Auburn has a 7 million dollar a year high school head coach who thinks he's an 'offense guru.'

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Any AD in his right mind would have fired Gus after Tennesse beat Auburn (30-24) 2 years ago.

[SaltyTiger 7,782]

5 hours ago, auburn4ever said:

Saban, Fisher

Ask either how they like coaching vs. Gus? 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

On 1/7/2020 at 9:53 AM, keesler said:

Tell us what save him after the horrible 2018 season?  Losses to MSU/UT + all three rivals and daily rumors swirling about his demise, and the buyout was $31MM instead of the $26.6MM it is today.  All this talk about the money is there does nothing but make fans question WTH he was allowed to return for the '19 season?

He could've lost the bama this year and he'd still be here because no one's ponying up that kind of cash any time soon.

Arkansas bought Chad out for 10 million after just two years. I think your wrong AU would have fired Gus for a year like last year but Gus didn’t have that year. 9-3 with a win at uat and close losses against top ten teams ( two away) they couldn’t fire him this year. It woks have set a bad precedence. They missed their golden opportunity last year. Now they will wait on another. Again money is not the object. We are set to sign a new TV right that will bring AU 63 million a year just in football TV rights, besides fate money, concession money and others. Starting next year AU will be getting close to $180-$200 million I take from football. While coaches salaries are way over anything understandable, but buying out Gus is really not that big of a deal. Sending messages that are not positive to future coaches is much more dangerous in the long run for AU. 7-5 or even 8-4 with bad losses will get Gus gone next year or the following year. Remember it only evolves 1/2 up front and the remainder paid over 4 years . If your thought was right and Green and the PTB were pro Gus they would have given him an execution for the record he had this year against the strength of schedule they played. Doesn’t change anything except buy him another year

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Beating UAT should not be the only game to save Malzahn's job. But as it stands, if Auburn beats Bammer, then Gus is safe for another year and the Auburn family is happy with that and their also happy to keep paying him 7 million dollars ever year. Very sad, but true.

[ToraGirl 5,498]

14 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

Remember it only evolves 1/2 up front and the remainder paid over 4 years . If your thought was right and Green and the PTB were pro Gus they would have given him an execution for the record he had this year against the strength of schedule they played. Doesn’t change anything except buy him another year

I know it's an auto-correct typo, but I needed a Saturday laugh badly! Thank you! 

I LOVE your post. All of it. Helps me process things without stealing all of my hope for better...in every way. 🦋🦅🏆