Finish out the season (Merged)

[ellitor 33,062]

18 hours ago, slyinsocal said:

All 3 teams have 4 home, 4 away. In terms of W/L, AU has the easiest path. LSU the most difficult. Hold serve at home, break even on the road, finish in a tie with one or both, and we have the #1 seed in the SEC Tourney. #2, #3 between LSU/KY. Both would be avoided until the championship game. Get these young men healthy. Time for some payback.

We're going to need some help with UK if we lose in Rupp. We need LSU & another team to beat them. The only other team I see having a shot at beating UK is @ Florida. Still, if we beat them I see them going no worse than 14-4. If we lose that game then no worse than 15-3 which means we have to run the table to keep up.

[ellitor 33,062]

11 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

we seem to get up for UT no matter where and how.

Yup. Our boys usually know what that game means to Bruce.

11 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Think we need LSU to lose to UK as well

Actually we need LSU to win that game. UK's schedule is easier than LSU's down the stretch.

[alexava 6,973]

2 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I didn’t say all that, I’m just creating a hypothetical. I’m sure if they won those two games, then they probably would’ve got a big head and lost something else. But to this point, a better offense would’ve had them undefeated 

I didn’t intend for it to sound that way. But I somewhat agree. I usually don’t buy into the idea that a couple of loses helps your attitude. Especially when you lose by 20. Our offense could have been much better and still lost those games. It was that bad. Sometimes you just gonna lose. For us it’s going to be because we are not making shots. 

[aubearcat 2,132]

 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

2 hours ago, ellitor said:

Yup. Our boys usually know what that game means to Bruce.

Actually we need LSU to win that game. UK's schedule is easier than LSU's down the stretch.

Yeah but if Auburn beats Kentucky in UK, then our contention with them ends there. WE can decide what UK does in this race. And if LSU loses to them, that essentially ends them as well 

[ellitor 33,062]

18 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Yeah but if Auburn beats Kentucky in UK, then our contention with them ends there.

No it doesn't. We still have to avoid 2 losses if UK doesn't lose any more which is very possible for them.

18 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

And if LSU loses to them, that essentially ends them as well 

Again, LSU still has 5 tough games left, 4 of which are on the road. They are likely going to lose at least 1 game even if they beat UK at home. Also if we end up in a tie for the SEC lead with UK with both teams winning at home then LSU as the highest seeded common opponent would likely be the 1st tie breaker. If LSU beats UK we win that tie breaker.

LSU could win the conference but as tough as their road is, it's the least likely of the 3 teams.

[slyinsocal 831]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

No it doesn't. We still have to avoid 2 losses if UK doesn't lose any more which is very possible for them.

Again, LSU still has 5 tough games left, 4 of which are on the road. They are likely going to lose at least 1 game even if they beat UK at home. Also if we end up in a tie for the SEC lead with UK with both teams winning at home then LSU as the highest seeded common opponent would likely be the 1st tie breaker. If LSU beats UK we win that tie breaker.

LSU could win the conference but as tough as their road is, it's the least likely of the 3 teams.

If Florida can ever get their over hyped act together just a little bit, they can do some damage to both LSU (home) and KY (home & away). South Carolina could pitch in also (LSU-home). But, you're right. Unless we win at Rupp (Feb 29), then LSU needs to beat KY at home (Feb 18). Bama and Arky might have been more of a challenge to LSU were it not for a player suffering a critical season ending to both teams (Bama-Jones, Arky-Joe).

[doc4aday 1,887]

On 2/9/2020 at 5:43 PM, gr82be said:

My Lord, I just noticed that said that I just wanted to be Bama. Supposed to have been beat Bama. That's embarrassing. 

not sure I am following your english on this one my friend! We need to beat the crap out of the turds when they come to the Jungle and have already did the deed for UK. We could be 23-0 right now with a bit of better playing and coaching. Do not get the Doc wrong, 21-2 is nothing to sneeze at either!  This team could very well win it all this season! 

[doc4aday 1,887]

5 hours ago, ellitor said:

No it doesn't. We still have to avoid 2 losses if UK doesn't lose any more which is very possible for them.

Again, LSU still has 5 tough games left, 4 of which are on the road. They are likely going to lose at least 1 game even if they beat UK at home. Also if we end up in a tie for the SEC lead with UK with both teams winning at home then LSU as the highest seeded common opponent would likely be the 1st tie breaker. If LSU beats UK we win that tie breaker.

LSU could win the conference but as tough as their road is, it's the least likely of the 3 teams.

I do not see LSU beating UK. UK does their business, LSU falls down the line further.  

[ellitor 33,062]

6 minutes ago, doc4aday said:

not sure I am following your english on this one my friend! We need to beat the crap out of the turds when they come to the Jungle and have already did the deed for UK. We could be 23-0 right now with a bit of better playing and coaching. Do not get the Doc wrong, 21-2 is nothing to sneeze at either!  This team could very well win it all this season! 

@doc4aday He was laughing at himself for typing "Just want to be Bama" instead of beat Bama.

[doc4aday 1,887]

18 hours ago, ellitor said:

@doc4aday He was laughing at himself for typing "Just want to be Bama" instead of beat Bama.

got it! After I posted my response, it hit me. Sometimes I am slow on the uptake!

 

18 hours ago, ellitor said:

@doc4aday He was laughing at himself for typing "Just want to be Bama" instead of beat Bama.

 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

On 2/10/2020 at 3:23 PM, ellitor said:

No it doesn't. We still have to avoid 2 losses if UK doesn't lose any more which is very possible for them.

That's obvious though, they obviously have to continue to win other games. But as far as deciding the race, amongst the contenders, they'd essentially eliminate UK. 

[Viper 3,120]

On 2/10/2020 at 11:29 AM, Viper said:

This is the most insane 4-game stretch in AU history. Three OT double digit deficit comeback wins. THREE. AND beat UK. 

Hope we can make it five this Wednesday. 

Wow make it FOUR OTs in five games!! Unreal!!

[aubearcat 2,132]

 

[AlaskanFAN 1,665]

We need LSU to beat UK tonight to put us all back in a 3 way tie for 1st place. 

[slyinsocal 831]

It's KY's crown to lose now. That's fine. Let Okoro heal. And for once, can we go to Rupp Arena and play with nothing to lose? We've won the last 2. Play hard with grit like always, but let's have some fun raining on their parade for a change. We physically whipped them last time. The pressure is on them. Between now and then, will anyone step up from the guard position not named McCormick and Doughty? Wishful thinking I know.

[AlaskanFAN 1,665]

Here is where things stand with 4 games left (2 home and 2 on the road).

Kentucky last 4 Games:

Our Last 4 Games:

LSU last 4 games:

And possible spoiler Florida last 4:

The long shot is, we have to win out and Florida has to beat UK on the last game of the season.

[ellitor 33,062]

We aren't winning the regular season. The goal now is to get Okoro 100% healthy for an NCAA run at minimum & maintain a top 4 seed in the SEC Tourney so we can have a double bye & see if Okoro is 100% healthy by then to make a SEC Tourney run.

[WarEagleIn2010 38]

6 hours ago, ellitor said:

We aren't winning the regular season. 

Probably not, but we still have better than a puncher's chance. Obviously have to play lights out in lexington, but if we pull that off, we would be in a good position to split the title. Kentucky could feasibly lose any of their remaining games. We've just got to win out. Hopefully the last 15 minutes of the last game is the start of a hot run

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, WarEagleIn2010 said:

Probably not, but we still have better than a puncher's chance

We have at best a puncher's chance. We have to win out, not knowing when Okoro will be back & UK has to lose to us & Florida. That's very very long odds right now.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

I think we can do it based on how UF played UK in Rupp. The only problem is we HAVE to beat a team we havent beat in that location in IDK how long. With a guy who'll at best have one game of conditioning under him. Okoro's a godsend but he isnt an angel, there's human limitations to what one can do 

[ellitor 33,062]

7 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I think we can do it based on how UF played UK in Rupp. The only problem is we HAVE to beat a team we havent beat in that location in IDK how long. With a guy who'll at best have one game of conditioning under him. Okoro's a godsend but he isnt an angel, there's human limitations to what one can do 

Bingo!

[AuburnArch13 185]

7 hours ago, ellitor said:

We have at best a puncher's chance. We have to win out, not knowing when Okoro will be back & UK has to lose to us & Florida. That's very very long odds right now.

To put some numbers to things, ESPN’s BPI puts the odds of us winning out at this point at 11.868%. They put the odds of Kentucky dropping at least 1 of their games @aTm, against Tenn, or @UF at 77.737%. That put the odds of both at 9.226%. 
 

Granted the BPI is not the be all end all or anything like that, and Okoro’s injury certainly makes things more difficult to predict, but a 9ish% chance does sound about right to me.

[ellitor 33,062]

7 minutes ago, AuburnArch13 said:

To put some numbers to things, ESPN’s BPI puts the odds of us winning out at this point at 11.868%. They put the odds of Kentucky dropping at least 1 of their games @aTm, against Tenn, or @UF at 77.737%. That put the odds of both at 9.226%. 
 

Granted the BPI is not the be all end all or anything like that, and Okoro’s injury certainly makes things more difficult to predict, but a 9ish% chance does sound about right to me.

Thanks @AuburnArch13. Is that info from BPI on game chances free or is it inside ESPN info? I only ask because I can never find game percentages info from BPI.

[AuburnArch13 185]

12 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Thanks @AuburnArch13. Is that info from BPI on game chances free or is it inside ESPN info? I only ask because I can never find game percentages info from BPI.

Their BPI predictions for individual games are available for free on the preview pages for the game in the ESPN mobile app. Don’t know where else they may or may not be available. I do recall them being difficult to find via web-browser from a few years back when I was trying to use them as inputs for a Monte-Carlo style simulator I was tinkering around with in excel.