March 17th Primaries

[AUDub 11,147]

Exit polling indicate Biden is going to cruise. 

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And Biden took Bernie to the woodshed in Florida, as expected 

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Krystal Ball is also apparently certifiably insane now. 

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

19 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Krystal Ball is also apparently certifiably insane now. 

 

Yeah, she's lost her damn mind.

[AUDub 11,147]

The Bernie subreddit I'm perusing is simply hilarious. A sizable number (not a majority, mind you) seem pretty happy with a spike in COVID-19 cases affecting the folks that didn't vote for their sacred cow. 

[AUDub 11,147]

11 minutes ago, AUDub said:

The Bernie subreddit I'm perusing is simply hilarious. A sizable number (not a majority, mind you) seem pretty happy with a spike in COVID-19 cases affecting the folks that didn't vote for their sacred cow. 

And the rest of it is vanity selfies with "I voted" stickers. 

[AUDub 11,147]

Ouch. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Brutal

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Lipinski got beat in Illinois on a challenge from the left. That's a big deal. 

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1 hour ago, AUDub said:

The Bernie subreddit I'm perusing is simply hilarious. A sizable number (not a majority, mind you) seem pretty happy with a spike in COVID-19 cases affecting the folks that didn't vote for their sacred cow. 

LOL I got a warning from the mods for calling some dude who said he "hopes Biden catches Coronavirus" an a**hole. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

34 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Lipinski got beat in Illinois on a challenge from the left. That's a big deal. 

I missed that.  Very big deal especially as part of the Chicago burbs.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Biden has swept the night.  Just projected to win Arizona.

[AUDub 11,147]

Silver has seen enough. 

 

[1716AU 728]

Not really.  What we are finding is that the 60+ folks are coming out in droves, even as there is a good uptick in new young voters.  The old are going decisively to Biden, and the young  (45 and under) decisively for Sanders.

Won't matter as the young and Progressive vote won't show up again in November and Trump wins a second term.  Then the aged will wonder what the hell is going on when he cuts Social Security and Medicaid.

African Americans, LGBTQ, and the Elderly need to do it on their own this time as Progressives and the Young won't help them out. They bettter hope it's enough, for Trump voters will come out in DROVES.

 

13 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Yeah, she's lost her damn mind.

 

[AUDub 11,147]

1 hour ago, 1716AU said:

Not really.  What we are finding is that the 60+ folks are coming out in droves, even as there is a good uptick in new young voters.  The old are going decisively to Biden, and the young  (45 and under) decisively for Sanders.

Won't matter as the young and Progressive vote won't show up again in November and Trump wins a second term.  Then the aged will wonder what the hell is going on when he cuts Social Security and Medicaid.

African Americans, LGBTQ, and the Elderly need to do it on their own this time as Progressives and the Young won't help them out. They bettter hope it's enough, for Trump voters will come out in DROVES.

 

 

With the turnout Biden is getting, I'd be very worried to be a Republican. Trump won by a hair thin margin in '16. Less than a 100,000 votes the other way in certain districts and we'd be talking about a comfortable Clinton Electoral College victory. 

And it's clear at this point that Bernie did well not because of his popularity,  but because of how unpopular Clinton was. 

There's a lot up in the air, but I wouldn't be uncomfortable being Biden at this moment with regard to the general election.

It would be nice to have the progressives and the young, but let's face it, it's hard to get them to the polls. If they're not willing to vote, they may as well have no voice at all, and appealing to them makes little sense for the Democrats.

[1716AU 728]

3 minutes ago, AUDub said:

With the turnout Biden is getting, I'd be very worried to be a Republican. Trump won by a hair thin margin in '16. Less than a 100,000 votes the other way in certain districts and we'd be talking about a comfortable Clinton Electoral College victory. 

And it's clear at this point that Bernie did well not because of his popularity,  but because of how unpopular Clinton was. 

There's a lot up in the air, but I wouldn't be uncomfortable being Biden at this moment with regard to the general election.

It would be nice to have the progressives and the young, but let's face it, it's hard to get them to the polls. If they're not willing to vote, they may as well have no voice at all, and appealing to them makes little sense for the Democrats.

I hope you're right.  But when you tell your base to pound sand, you deserve what you get.

But I do think you underestimate Trump.  But I truly hope you're right.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, 1716AU said:

Not really.  What we are finding is that the 60+ folks are coming out in droves, even as there is a good uptick in new young voters.  The old are going decisively to Biden, and the young  (45 and under) decisively for Sanders.

Won't matter as the young and Progressive vote won't show up again in November and Trump wins a second term.  Then the aged will wonder what the hell is going on when he cuts Social Security and Medicaid.

African Americans, LGBTQ, and the Elderly need to do it on their own this time as Progressives and the Young won't help them out. They bettter hope it's enough, for Trump voters will come out in DROVES.

 

 

What Dub said.  Clinton largely lost in 2016 because suburban white voters and upper Midwest African-Americans didn't turn out.  Neither of those factors have anything to do with progressives.

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6 minutes ago, 1716AU said:

I hope you're right.  But when you tell your base to pound sand, you deserve what you get.

The progs aren't the base, they are a wing. The base is older voters, black voters and moderates of all ages, and a lot of these hard left progressive ideas do not appeal to them.

You want a guy who told the base of the party whose primary he was trying to win to pound sand, look no further than Bernie. His coalition is loud, but it doesn't win elections.

Quote

But I do think you underestimate Trump.  But I truly hope you're right.

Nah. His base is baked in. In '16, I underestimated how deeply unpopular Clinton was. People did not turn out to vote for her like they have Joe. 

If the Dems can get their people to vote, they win, whatever structural advantages with regard to the EC the Republicans have. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 minute ago, 1716AU said:

I hope you're right.  But when you tell your base to pound sand, you deserve what you get.

But I do think you underestimate Trump.  But I truly hope you're right.

Remember, Trump won Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney got in 2012.  And Romney lost Wisconsin.

I point this out to say that while Trump has a fervent base, the totality of his support in some key areas isn't backed up very much in numbers.

And I would also push back on the idea that progressives are the base of the Dems.  The numbers show that moderates and minorities continue to hold the sheer base numbers.  The progressive lane is more insurgent.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Good conversation, y'all. 

[AUDub 11,147]

Somebody come get Bernie's comms director. She's gone insane. 

 

[AUFriction 1,179]

On 3/18/2020 at 9:53 AM, 1716AU said:

Not really.  What we are finding is that the 60+ folks are coming out in droves, even as there is a good uptick in new young voters.  The old are going decisively to Biden, and the young  (45 and under) decisively for Sanders.

Won't matter as the young and Progressive vote won't show up again in November and Trump wins a second term.  Then the aged will wonder what the hell is going on when he cuts Social Security and Medicaid.

African Americans, LGBTQ, and the Elderly need to do it on their own this time as Progressives and the Young won't help them out. They bettter hope it's enough, for Trump voters will come out in DROVES.

 

 

The Bernie crowd will show up. I worked in a psychology department at a midwestern university leading up to the last election. That’s as liberal as it gets, and 9/10 of the people I worked with were Bernie supporters. After he lost to Hillary, all of them immediately said that wouldn’t vote for her. They all did. 
Two things decided the 2016 election. First, the voting population leans slightly right of center with “moderately or slightly conservative” being the most common political affiliation among voters. If forced to choose between extremely undesirable candidates, they are going to go with the one that is slightly more similar to them. Second, in one of the last debates, Hillary made a statement about the Supreme Court that scared off a ton of moderates. The moderates that were leaning her direction either didn’t vote or switched to Trump. Biden is far from an exciting candidate, but he doesn’t have the dislikable characteristics that Clinton did. Biden can mobilize and get support from the moderates, which are actually the largest (but often quietest) group. 

[kevon67 2,368]

4 hours ago, AUFriction said:

The Bernie crowd will show up. I worked in a psychology department at a midwestern university leading up to the last election. That’s as liberal as it gets, and 9/10 of the people I worked with were Bernie supporters. After he lost to Hillary, all of them immediately said that wouldn’t vote for her. They all did. 
Two things decided the 2016 election. First, the voting population leans slightly right of center with “moderately or slightly conservative” being the most common political affiliation among voters. If forced to choose between extremely undesirable candidates, they are going to go with the one that is slightly more similar to them. Second, in one of the last debates, Hillary made a statement about the Supreme Court that scared off a ton of moderates. The moderates that were leaning her direction either didn’t vote or switched to Trump. Biden is far from an exciting candidate, but he doesn’t have the dislikable characteristics that Clinton did. Biden can mobilize and get support from the moderates, which are actually the largest (but often quietest) group. 

Next to last sentence hit nail on the head👍

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

15 hours ago, AUFriction said:

First, the voting population leans slightly right of center with “moderately or slightly conservative” being the most common political affiliation among voters. 

I don't think this is accurate.  In the last seven presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote six times.  The only outlier was Bush in 2004.

[homersapien 11,366]

Interesting perspective regarding Biden's inherent advantages over both Sanders and Trump:

The No. 1 reason Biden is likely to beat Trump

ByMax Boot Columnist March 11, 2020

 

If God exists, she must be a political scientist with a sense of humor. That, at least, is the only conclusion I can draw from the 2020 Democratic primaries, which seem designed to disprove every commonly held notion of how you win a presidential race.

Beto O’Rourke had the media buzz, but he didn’t even make it to the first primary. Nor did Kamala D. Harris, Cory Booker or Julián Castro, despite representing important ethnic groups and states.

Mike Bloomberg had all the money in the world, but despite spending more than $500 million on advertising, he managed to win just one primary and 61 delegates. Tom Steyer also had essentially limitless resources, but he did even worse.

Pete Buttigieg was supernaturally articulate and had a killer organization that allowed him to finish first in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, but his momentum led nowhere.

Elizabeth Warren was a deadly debater who had a plan for everything — except for winning any primaries.

Amy Klobuchar was also a skilled debater with Midwestern roots and tons of experience, but none of that did her much good.

And, finally, Bernie Sanders had a passionate base, lots of money from small donors, and a signature issue — Medicare-for-all — that polled strongly with the base. He won New Hampshire and was the front-runner for a week, but he no longer has a path to the nomination after another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

The winner is going to be Joe Biden, who had just about everything going against him. He is old, inarticulate, uninspiring and gaffe-prone. He doesn’t have a radical agenda. He isn’t a new face; he has been involved in national politics longer than the median American has been alive. He had little money or organization (Sanders raised nearly three times more money in January). He finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, and since 1972 no candidate has won a major party’s nomination without finishing at least second in one of those states.

A year ago Biden was expected to win. Two weeks ago he was expected to lose. Now he is all but certain to be the nominee after the most surprising turnaround in the history of primaries. Although future history books will treat Biden as the inevitable winner, he was anything but. His triumph owes to a series of contingent events, from Rep. James E. Clyburn’s (D-S.C.) endorsement to Bloomberg’s debate gaffes.

Ultimately, I suspect, the outcome can be ascribed to the simple fact that most people like “Uncle Joe.” It’s a little dispiriting to admit that presidential elections, like student council elections, are essentially a popularity contest, but it’s true. The Barbara Lee Family Foundation found in a 2016 study that 84 percent of men and 90 percent of women say it is important that they like an officeholder they support.

Think back, and likability is usually the key to presidential electability. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had terrible favorability ratings, but a Rasmussen poll in June 2016 found more voters would rather have a beer with Trump than Clinton. Barack Obama was more likable than Mitt Romney and at least as likable as John McCain. George W. Bush was more likable than Al Gore. Bill Clinton was more likable than Bob Dole or George H.W. Bush, who in turn was more likable than Michael Dukakis. Ronald Reagan was more likable than Jimmy Carter or Walter Mondale. Carter was at least as likable as Gerald Ford.

Richard Nixon was a major exception — he was less likable than Hubert Humphrey or George McGovern. But Lyndon Johnson was more likable than Barry Goldwater. John F. Kennedy was more likable than Nixon. Dwight D. Eisenhower was more likable than Adlai Stevenson. Harry S. Truman was more likable than Thomas Dewey. And Franklin D. Roosevelt was more likable than any of his opponents.

In this Democratic race, the outcome was predicted by a CNN-University of New Hampshire poll of likely New Hampshire voters all the way back in July 2019. It found that although Harris and Warren — then seen as front-runners — had high “favorability” ratings, only 4 percent found Warren the most “likable” candidate and only 5 percent said the same of Harris. The leaders in “likability,” at 20 percent each, were Biden and Sanders. It might be sexist and unfair, but it’s no coincidence that Biden and Sanders are the top two finishers in the primaries.

Given how important this metric is, it’s astonishing how seldom it’s measured. Pollsters often ask whether voters have a favorable view of candidates and whether candidates share their values, but seldom about likability. But using favorability as a proxy, it’s striking that in a recent CNN poll, voters have a far more favorable impression of Biden (+4) than of Sanders (-10).

There’s a good reason Trump, whose own favorable/unfavorable rating is -11 in that CNN survey, would rather face Sanders. Biden is Trump’s worst nightmare: a Democrat who is far more likable than he is. Based on that metric alone, Biden has a strong chance of prevailing in November.