IT'S HERE!!! AU student Covid-19 positive.

[gr82be 14,423]

24 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

All this expert talk of statistics and reality....

The reality is, if I were invited to a 100 seat theater and told that at some point 3 random seats will explode, killing it's occupants and wounding an untold number directly around those seats (wounds varying in severity) but the rest will probably be okay......

.....I'm streaming a movie online instead.

At the very least I'm not calling those who don't want to chance it "hysterical".

But, I'm not a medical professional.....nor did I stay in a Holiday Express, so I honestly know nothing.

Well now you're just making sense. 

I was someone who didn't think much of this before it got to the US and no, that wasn't because I don't care about China. I just didn't read much about it. I've certainly changed my mind and the ones who are dismissing this as much ado about nothing need to get a grip on reality. I used to think dementia was just forgetting things and had no idea of the fact that it is a slow killer and affects those around the patient more that the patient themselves. I mention this because I've been learning a lot about it the last five years with my mother and mother in-law both being victims. People tend to become more interested in things when they affect them directly. COVID 19 is in my community here in Mississippi and I am choosing to take every precaution that is being advised. I don't want to be a victim or a carrier. If someone isn't taking this seriously they are either ignorant or stupid. Ignorance can be cured with an informed article or two. Stupid, well I guess Ron White is right. 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

3 hours ago, TigerTale said:

Serious question...how long are we going to ask healthy people who live paycheck to paycheck to sit home and not work? People who have limited savings that they will burn through quickly as they pay rent, buy food, etc. without regular income. I don't have a job that pays me to sit home. My wife and I joked that we may loose everything and go hungry but at least we didn't get the virus! We joked, but depending on how long this drags out we won't be laughing for long.

4 weeks in ICU and 4 more weeks recovering will not  do your finances any better.   https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/?utm_source=reddit.com

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

Look up R-Nought.  It shows how infectious diseases is.    Seasonal flu R-nought is 1.3.   BIRD flu had an R -nought of 1.5        Ebola was 2 .        The R-nought of Corona is  2.5. 

 

More contagious than the others by a lot.

[McLoofus 35,182]

18 minutes ago, gr82be said:

I was someone who didn't think much of this before it got to the US and no, that wasn't because I don't care about China. I just didn't read much about it.

I read some things out of Italy after it had already broken in China but before it had gotten a foothold here. And I've been begging people to take it more seriously since. Everything that Italy warned is happening exactly as predicted. 

You know how they say we're 10 days behind Italy? From March 10th:

Quote

Coronavirus has killed 168 more people in Italy in the past 24 hours, the highest toll in a single day since the start of the outbreak in the country.

The whole of Italy - a country of some 60 million people - was placed under quarantine as the government stepped up efforts to tackle the coronavirus outbreak that has killed 631 people and affected more than 10,000.

 

As of 8:00 AM today:

Quote

The number of known cases of the coronavirus in the United States surged past 10,000 on Thursday morning as testing expanded and the virus spread. As of Friday morning, at least 12,392 people across every state, plus Washington, D.C., and three U.S. territories, have tested positive for coronavirus, according to a New York Times database, and at least 195 patients with the virus have died.

Italy, today:

Quote

A northern Italian city has been hit so hard by coronavirus that it is now sending patients who need intensive care to other parts of the country, a doctor in the city of Bergamo told CNN Friday.

“Bergamo is sending ICU patients to other regions because we ran out (of space),” Dr. Stefano Magnone, a hospital doctor in Bergamo, said. 

Magnone said that also the ICU in the hospitals in the province of Brescia are full.

“Around 50 patients were sent out of Lombardy to other regions, mainly in the south,” Magnone said. 

 

[gr82be 14,423]

4 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

The number of known cases of the coronavirus in the United States surged past 10,000 on Thursday morning as testing expanded and the virus spread. As of Friday morning, at least 12,392 people across every state,

2392 in about 24 hours. 100 cases per hour and that's still with limited testing. If that can't open some eyes I don't know what will. What's happening in Italy should be waking up all the folks sleeping on this virus. 

[TigerTale 357]

31 minutes ago, Quietmaninthecorner said:

4 weeks in ICU and 4 more weeks recovering will not  do your finances any better. 

Not so much worried about my finances as I am about feeding a family of five. How do you suggest I do that unemployed with no end in sight?

 

Also, I'm a completely healthy 40 year old male. Seriously doubt I'm spending 4 weeks in the ICU. 

[gr82be 14,423]

5 minutes ago, TigerTale said:

Not so much worried about my finances as I am about feeding a family of five. How do you suggest I do that unemployed with no end in sight?

 

This is a link to assistance by state if it is needed at any time. Also the relief checks that have been in the news should be coming within the next few weeks according to reports. 

I'll definitely include you and your family in thoughts and prayers. I'm sorry you and many others are facing this right now. It could happen to any of us at any time. 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://rocunited.org/stop-the-spread/coronavirus-support/&ved=2ahUKEwjptbeQpKnoAhVOeKwKHdtLAPgQFjAQegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3dQnU383as-mnXmTXkIDiv&cshid=1584715323180

[TigerTale 357]

3 minutes ago, gr82be said:

 

This is a link to assistance by state if it is needed at any time. Also the relief checks that have been in the news should be coming within the next few weeks according to reports. 

I'll definitely include you and your family in thoughts and prayers. I'm sorry you and many others are facing this right now. It could happen to any of us at any time. 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://rocunited.org/stop-the-spread/coronavirus-support/&ved=2ahUKEwjptbeQpKnoAhVOeKwKHdtLAPgQFjAQegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3dQnU383as-mnXmTXkIDiv&cshid=1584715323180

Thanks so much.  

My family is doing all the requested quarantine stuff including not visiting my elderly parents which is killing my kids.

With all that said, for me anyway, the fear of us getting this virus is far less then the fear of how we are going to survive the other consequences.

 

[DAG 33,977]

11 hours ago, AUDub said:

Show of hands, how many healthcare professionals in this here thread?

PTB is right, y'all. For the love of all that is holy,  take this one seriously.

[gr82be 14,423]

1 minute ago, DAG said:

Your hair is longer than I thought it would be. 

Glad to see you posting. Was thinking yesterday about a few regular posters that haven't appeared to be as active on the board lately. Hope your well. I knew you were in healthcare. No rest for the weary for you guys. Prayers sent. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

58 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I read some things out of Italy after it had already broken in China but before it had gotten a foothold here. And I've been begging people to take it more seriously since. Everything that Italy warned is happening exactly as predicted. 

You know how they say we're 10 days behind Italy? 

 

I just said the other day, along with my LeBron James comment, Italy is our cautionary tale as they are much more comparable to the US than China, etc.

"We" could become Italy real fast!

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, AUsince72 said:

I just said the other day, along with my LeBron James comment, Italy is our cautionary tale as they are much more comparable to the US than China, etc.

"We" could become Italy real fast!

Guess it just depends on whether or not you consider 10 days "real fast". I sure do. 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

54 minutes ago, TigerTale said:

Not so much worried about my finances as I am about feeding a family of five.  How do you suggest I do that unemployed with no end in sight?

 

That is what your finances are for.  go to the store,  wear a mask and gloves,  and buy food.  If finances ARE an issue,  local, state and federal governments can assist you. 

[AUFriction 1,179]

19 hours ago, beaumak said:

yes lets all freak out!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Coronavirus: We'll say what after 2 months time in the U.S. Stats as of today.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*

• Total cases: 10,442
• Total deaths: 150
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

The flu: "In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

We'll give this what about 6 months duration. You can say "oh what about this or that. blah blah. corona wasnt tested etc. etc." 

Sorry the flu is worse. And any justification of keeping people away for corona, would also correlate to the flu's stats as well.

In some ways you are right, but in some ways you are very wrong. The issue with this illness is not the death rate. It is the spread rate. Evidence very early on suggested that this illness spreads easier than the flu. Some of that is due to there being no vaccine. Some of that is due to the fact that this coronavirus strain has never been seen before, so nobody has an immunity. Some of it is just because it is an aggressive virus that is capable of spreading easier. 
 

The CDC has also found evidence suggesting that up to 1/2 of cases are asymptomatic, which means that people are walking around infected without knowing they’re infected. This means they are spreading the virus. Since most people with the flu quarantine by default after symptoms emerge, it’s spread is diminished. If people aren’t home bound due to symptoms, they can spread the coronavirus to more people. It is also worth mentioning that this means the reported infection rates could be underestimating substantially.
 

As for the death rate among those infected, it isn’t that high, and it is likely much lower than what’s being reported given that many cases shown no symptoms. The one major concern here is on how well the medical industry can keep up. For people that get severe cases of this illness, there is more likely to be a need for hospitalization as the symptoms in severe cases often include breathing issues. Should the hospitals become overworked/overcrowded, that will affect more than just patients with the virus. Medical care across the board will suffer. 
 

The real concern here is more economic than medical. The virus lasts longer than the flu, with an average sick time of around 2 weeks. (The flu usually lasts 1/2 the time of this coronavirus strain.) Since there’s no vaccine and since there’s a higher spread rate with this illness, it is easy for whole companies to get infected. Businesses could close permanently, and the economy would rank worse than it already has. The only way to prevent this from happening is to keep people from spreading the illness, at least until the warmer months where the illness is likely to go dormant. Put another way, this illness is/was always going to hit our economy. We can either steer into the skid and minimize the damage, or we can pretend there’s no skid and crash into a tree. By taking extreme measures now (closing restaurants,  cancelling events, etc.), we are shutting things down under our terms rather than the illness’s. If we wait, restaurants will close because their customer bases are sick, and they won’t be able to keep enough waitstaff. Sporting events will suffer because many fans will be sick, and others will be out of work and unable to afford the games. Not acting now will just amplify what we are dealing with during all this social distancing.

[passthebiscuits 6,844]

10 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

In some ways you are right, but in some ways you are very wrong. The issue with this illness is not the death rate. It is the spread rate. Evidence very early on suggested that this illness spreads easier than the flu. Some of that is due to there being no vaccine. Some of that is due to the fact that this coronavirus strain has never been seen before, so nobody has an immunity. Some of it is just because it is an aggressive virus that is capable of spreading easier. 
 

The CDC has also found evidence suggesting that up to 1/2 of cases are asymptomatic, which means that people are walking around infected without knowing they’re infected. This means they are spreading the virus. Since most people with the flu quarantine by default after symptoms emerge, it’s spread is diminished. If people aren’t home bound due to symptoms, they can spread the flu to more people. It is also worth mentioning that this means the reported infection rates could be underestimating substantially.
 

As for the death rate among those infected, it isn’t that high, and it is likely much lower than what’s being reported given that many cases shown no symptoms. The one major concern here is on how well the medical industry can keep up. For people that get severe cases of this illness, there is more likely to be a need for hospitalization as the symptoms in severe cases often include breathing issues. Should the hospitals become overworked/overcrowded, that will affect more than just patients with the virus. Medical care across the board will suffer. 
 

The real concern here is more economic than medical. The virus lasts longer than the flu, with an average sick time of around 2 weeks. (The flu usually lasts 1/2 the time of this coronavirus strain.) Since there’s no vaccine and since there’s a higher spread rate with this illness, it is easy for whole companies to get infected. Businesses could close permanently, and the economy would rank worse than it already has. The only way to prevent this from happening is to keep people from spreading the illness, at least until the warmer months where the illness is likely to go dormant. Put another way, this illness is/was always going to hit our economy. We can either steer into the skid and minimize the damage, or we can pretend there’s no skid and crash into a tree. By taking extreme measures now (closing restaurants,  cancelling events, etc.), we are shutting things down under our terms rather than the illness’s. 

And the congregation said... Amen.

[SaturdayGT 719]

 

[ellitor 33,086]

3 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

To each his own opinion but I think the guy in the WH is doing a great job in all of this. What more would you have him do?

Any answer to this needs to be taken to the political forum.

[ellitor 33,086]

1 minute ago, Proud Tiger said:

Sorry, I was just responding to another earlier post. 

I know. Not criticizing you at all for the question. Just redirecting it to a better area.

[boomstick 1,315]

22 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

And the congregation said... Amen.

I've read recently there there are two strains of this virus, S and L, which is further complicating the process of finding treatments and vaccines. Is that the case?

[passthebiscuits 6,844]

16 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I've read recently there there are two strains of this virus, S and L, which is further complicating the process of finding treatments and vaccines. Is that the case?

National Science Review (most of us MDs don’t really look at this journal as closely or reliably as others like NEJM) took about 100 cases and studied the virus and suggested that there were different strains. However, to this point, (stuff changes by the hour) that has NOT been confirmed by the WHO or CDC.

It would not be unusual for an RNA virus like this one to change, but it would be a bit unusual to change that rapidly. 

Most experts that I trust suggest that we will get a flattening/plateau in the next 100 days with another smaller spike potential in late fall. At that time it may be easier to see a shift in the strain. 

 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

28 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I've read recently there there are two strains of this virus, S and L, which is further complicating the process of finding treatments and vaccines. Is that the case?

I believe one of the mutations was only found in wuan, and supposedly squashed. (I'll look for link.) .  But this virus does not copy itself well.  It makes up for that by replicating mass quantities  making  a very good chance of  it mutation again soon.

It was originally not a human hosted  virus.  It mutated from there to effect humans.

Still looking for the link I saw a few days ago it was more detailed. .

  https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/?utm_source=reddit.com

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?p=full

[TigerTale 357]

10 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

From an email I just (3:09 EST) received from the head of our home health group:

That is today.

I want you to think about how far this has gone from where we were a week ago.

Now consider where we'll be in 2 weeks. Or May. 

I got you. I conceded your point already. Not going to argue medical as I would be in over my head.

I should have stuck to my original point that the reality star in the White House was using scientific knowledge to bar entry from China while the scientist and medical experts at WHO were denouncing him for it. And that he did it for scientific purposes not xenophobic purposes. And that when this all plays out that may have been a move that lowered the impact on this country. Regardless, it was the right move.

Anyway, my family and I are following all the quarantine recommendations and am glad that health professionals like yourself ( I assume you are in the healthcare filed) are out there. Stay safe.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, TigerTale said:

I got you. I conceded your point already. Not going to argue medical as I would be in over my head.

I should have stuck to my original point that the reality star in the White House was using scientific knowledge to bar entry from China while the scientist and medical experts at WHO were denouncing him for it. And that he did it for scientific purposes not xenophobic purposes. And that when this all plays out that may have been a move that lowered the impact on this country. Regardless, it was the right move.

Anyway, my family and I are following all the quarantine recommendations and am glad that health professionals like yourself ( I assume you are in the healthcare filed) are out there. Stay safe.

Thanks. I'm in the IT department for a large hospital. No legitimate need at this point for me to be in the office- could very easily do my job from home- but we are still required to come into the office. The hospital less than a mile away announced their first positive test result last night. I am in a tourist and port city. 

I cannot stress to you all enough just how little the business side of our healthcare industry is prioritizing this virus. Not only are the actual providers- who are begging everyone to follow the recommendations that we've all heard now over and over again- going to be overrun soon, but they are going to be leaning on support staff that have also been decimated by the virus. To wit: on Monday, at 3:00 PM EST, at the exact same time that the no-groups-more-than-10 rule was announced, my department head had the entire IT department for this health system congregated in one conference room to announce "business as usual" (exact words). (I, along with *one* other person, called into the meeting from my desk.) Yesterday, I saw a woman- a healthcare provider, not sure what discipline- walk out of that conference room, cough once into her arm, and then cough again without covering her mouth at all. She sat immediately next to a coworker for the rest of the day for some sort of software training. (Said conference room is between my office and the john.)

Point being, don't plan on going to a hospital and getting better if you catch this thing a couple weeks or more from now. In fact, don't count on getting adequate care for anything. And, if you're religious, feel free to pray to your god(s) that our healthcare system doesn't collapse before this is over.

That's directed at everyone reading, not you. I'm really glad you and your family are doing the right thing. 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

Statistic of the day.... as of this morning,   Corona (still in it's infant stage)   has killed more people globally than ebola did during the entire pandemic..  . 

Corona deaths   11,365   8 weeks  

Ebola deaths      11,310   Dec 2013–Jan 2016

 

 

 

 

[augolf1716 21,109]

Thread is cleaned up best I could. No politics I'm asking nicely for now