homersapien 11,354 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 By Greg Sargent Opinion writer April 7, 2020 at 10:13 a.m. EDT Once again, President Trump is employing his magical reality-bending powers to make a catastrophic failure of leadership on his part disappear. This latest effort is more infuriating than usual, however, because it came as part of a process that is designed to enable government leaders to learn from their failures and self-correct. If Trump opted to do this — that is, learn from the failures exposed by this process, rather than immediately rushing to pull out his little reality-altering wand — it could save untold lives. As it happens, new investigative reporting by the New York Times has just confirmed the broad contours of the reality Trump tried to expunge, to no avail. At his press briefing on Monday evening, Trump unloaded over the news that an internal government report documented that hospitals across the country are suffering severe supply shortages, which could mean wrenching decisions about how to allocate equipment among those hospitalized with the coronavirus. Trump attacked the report’s author — an official in the inspector general’s office at the Department of Health and Human Services — and essentially said the findings are Fake News. “That’s just wrong,” Trump seethed. “Did I hear the word ‘inspector general,’ really? It’s wrong.” Trump then suggested the findings might be politically tainted. “Where did he come from, the inspector general? What’s his name?” Trump said, adding: “Could politics be entered into that?” In a sense, what’s really going on here is that Trump is in a rage because medical professionals battling on the front lines of the coronavirus candidly described the hardships they’re facing, in part due to his own catastrophic failures. A devastating report After all, the report — which was actually written by a woman — was compiled from hundreds of interviews with hospital administrators across the country. They reported “severe” and “widespread” shortages of testing supplies and personal protective equipment that are “putting staff and patients at risk.” Importantly, the report sounded the alarm about the “lack of a robust supply chain” for needed equipment. And it noted that administrators anticipate a shortage of life-saving ventilators that could pose “difficult decisions” about allocations among the sick and dying. The report called for a renewed focus on “government intervention and coordination” at the “national level” to facilitate “distribution of supplies throughout the country.” In other words, hospital administrators want the federal government to do more to speed lifesaving equipment to them, before it’s too late. It’s important to stress that this report is explicitly offered as a series of constructive suggestions from hospitals who are begging for more help in saving American lives. The report is not a “review” of the government’s performance. It presents these findings as an “aid” to enable the government to assist hospitals as they address an ongoing “public health emergency.” Remarkably, Trump’s main takeaway from this can be only that it made him look bad. Confusion bordering on disarray Enter this new investigation from the New York Times, which documents that the Trump administration’s approach to medical equipment supply chains is producing “new confusion, bordering on disarray.” According to the Times, numerous states and hospital systems report that they thought they had procured equipment, only to see the federal government commandeer it. This could have a legitimate aim — such as an effort to allocate equipment where it’s most needed — but it’s hard to know for sure, due to the sheer confusion about why this is happening. The Times reports that a “hybrid” distribution system has evolved. Federal officials are relying on private health-care providers to procure supplies and then sell roughly half of them to companies and localities that have placed orders. The feds are directing the sale of the other half based on need. Exacerbating all of this, the administration simultaneously has “repeatedly called on states to find medical supplies on their own without relying on the federal government," as the Times puts it, creating all the confusion. As Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) of Illinois told the PBS News Hour, this means the federal government is procuring equipment and delivering it to private companies, and then letting states “bid against each other for those goods.” All this has contributed to the shortages urgently documented in the inspector general’s report Trump raged about. More lives at risk Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, told me that Trump must bring clarity and transparency to supply chains, by fully exercising the Defense Production Act to take charge of distribution, or by issuing clear guidelines to states to avoid bidding wars. The current chaotic response, Konyndyk argued, flows from Trump’s “failure to take responsibility” for it. “When you have a chaotic response against a deadly pandemic, by definition you’re putting lives at risk,” Konyndyk said. “We can’t do this without effective leadership.” Yet Trump refuses to accept that the system highlighting these problems might actually be working legitimately as designed — and thus refuses to learn from what is being revealed. Noah Bookbinder, the executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, pointed out that under the system put into place after Watergate, inspectors general are supposed to do more than just highlight abuses and wrongdoing. “Much of what they spend their time doing is making constructive recommendations to facilitate more effective government functioning,” Bookbinder told me. “The current president is so intent on stifling anything that could reflect negatively on his administration that he is undercutting a system that helps the government do a better job, which in the current crisis could save lives." So this latest ongoing display is not just beyond depraved. It could lead to more deaths. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/07/trumps-latest-depraved-display-could-lead-more-deaths/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creed 1,629 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Something I remember from a class AU was discussing "chaos theory". It seems we're in chaos. The federal and state governments, the healthcare industry, the supply chain, the nation and its citizens (can't even obey some simple rules) are in chaos. It appears there are no processes and procedures in place at the Department of Health to address this type of situation... and maybe has never existed. This event has exposed the weakness in the delivery of health care in the United States, at least for an epidemic. The big question for me is what will healthcare look like in the future? Will it need to be a global approach? Will anything change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, creed said: Something I remember from a class AU was discussing "chaos theory". It seems we're in chaos. The federal and state governments, the healthcare industry, the supply chain, the nation and its citizens (can't even obey some simple rules) are in chaos. It appears there are no processes and procedures in place at the Department of Health to address this type of situation... and maybe has never existed. This event has exposed the weakness in the delivery of health care in the United States, at least for an epidemic. The big question for me is what will healthcare look like in the future? Will it need to be a global approach? Will anything change? I think our failures dealing with the pandemic are caused by a multitude of factors, including our approach to the delivery of healthcare in general. For example, in a commercialized healthcare system, there is no incentive to plan for inventory surpluses in critical product inventories required to deal with a pandemic. A for-profit healthcare system could possibly be balanced or countered by an effective national emergency response designed to build or create such inventories, but our politics have recently been dominated by party that is anti-government, emphasizes extreme laissez faire capitalism and has a complete disdain for science and socialistic. Such traits almost guarantee chaos in a pandemic. As a result of this pandemic, I hope to see changes in both our approach to healthcare as well as a political changes in our government. We need an opposition party, but we cannot afford to have one of them to be generally anti-government. The post Trump GOP must be reformed into a party that respects science and the importance of having an effective, organized government. Both parties must at least agree that an effective government is necessary to avoid the sort of chaos we are witnessing. The long term challenge is can we make a democratic, representative republic viable? Or does the future belong to some combination of authoritarianism/capitalism like China? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 PPE today, test kits tomorrow..... As Trump’s failures mount, one governor sounds an ominous warning With coronavirus deaths in the U.S. rapidly approaching 15,000, we are now learning that the federal government’s national stockpile of medical supplies is almost depleted. Meanwhile, the failure to ramp up testing to the needed degree remains a “signature failure,” as the New York Times puts it. One person who is well positioned to shed light on what all this means is Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington state. His state was an initial epicenter, but there are signs the curve is flattening, which means Inslee both has extensive experience of how federal failures hampered the response and is already contemplating what comes next. In an interview, Inslee, a Democrat, shared fresh details on how President Trump’s lack of “urgency” is directly contributing to equipment shortages hobbling response efforts — and hinted at an alarming scenario ahead. “We could use a stronger voice out of the White House to mobilize this nation,” Inslee told me. “We need a giant leap for mankind now, not just small steps.” Inslee discussed difficulties in procuring equipment that are inexplicable and infuriating. As dogged reporting has shown, the federal government’s handling of medical supply chains has left states and health-care providers scrambling in a state of confusion and without badly needed supplies. As many experts have noted — and as Inslee reiterated — this is in part a direct outgrowth of Trump’s failure to fully deploy the Defense Production Act to marshal private sector resources. The inability to procure needed supplies for testing remains a major problem for Washington state, Inslee noted, but the specifics of why this is the case are notable. One major problem is that the federal government’s haphazard approach has created a vast mismatch in availability among disparate parts needed to make testing possible. For instance, Inslee noted, the state has unused testing capacity right now in large part because it lacks one thing: the swabs needed to take samples. “It seems ridiculous that the United States can’t produce enough swabs to solve this problem,” Inslee told me. “I have 50 or 60 long-term care facilities that have infections in them that we literally have not been able to do the testing we want of remaining residents and staff.” Inslee said his state might have finally found a supplier to meet this need — for now — but he added that the shortage of another part (such as vials) will surely become a problem in the very near term. The overarching issue, Inslee told me, is “an inadequate supply chain” that’s “grossly inadequate to the demand.” A month of lost time Inslee said this problem is directly traceable to “at least a month” of lost time, because “the president was downplaying this problem and had not engaged the full force of the federal government.” “We should have been a month ahead on the supply chain compared to where we are,” Inslee said. In another unsettling example, Inslee noted that he recently asked the CEO of a private company that is manufacturing the transport medium for tests if it could ramp up production with double shifts. “She said, ‘Well, maybe — we have to find a way to finance that,’” Inslee told me. This surprised him, because it seems like something the federal government should already be communicating with such manufacturers about. “I would have thought the federal government would have talked to every single manufacturer in the nation who either makes this, or could make this, by this point, and said, ‘Look, we’re going to finance a double shift,’” Inslee told me. “That hasn’t happened.” These problems appear to flow directly from a kind of schizophrenic approach adopted by the federal government. Trump initially told states they were mostly on their own, which led to a bidding war among states seeking supplies from a range of manufacturers and suppliers. Now the feds have sought to exert control over distribution, but it appears piecemeal and partial. In Inslee’s telling, this has resulted in a double whammy: a shortage of supplies and a lack of coordination of availability of parts. This could be mitigated by a much more robust and coordinated response via the Defense Production Act. “We still haven’t had the federal government use all its resources to really mobilize the full force of the manufacturing base of the United States,” Inslee told me. An ominous warning Along these lines, Inslee warned of another looming problem. As coronavirus cases recede in the coming months, if anything, more testing will be required. That’s because when people reassemble, it will be urgent to jump on cases in which people again show symptoms, and test them, to avoid a second wave. “As we want to reopen our schools, as we want to reopen our industries, the amount of testing we need will actually increase,” Inslee said. “In the second wave, we have to have testing, a resource base, and a contact-tracing base that is so much more scaled up than right now. It’s an enormous challenge.” Inslee stressed that many federal government officials are working very hard and that in many cases, needed equipment has been delivered, for which he is thankful. But he reiterated his call for Trump to exercise “urgency to really mobilize this whole industrial supply chain.” “What we need now, what won World War II, was a quartermaster,” Inslee said. “That’s how you win wars. That’s what we need — a quartermaster.” Recently, Trump was directly confronted with glaring evidence of this. His own administration released a report documenting urgent shortages faced by hospital administrators around the country, who offered constructive suggestions on how the federal government can help save American lives. In response, Trump lashed out in a rage, and pretended those problems are simply nonexistent. Needless to say, that’s not the quartermaster we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 These experts with their modeling have been universally wrong as have been the opinions written about their flawed models. So the "experts" change their model, worthless opinions are written about the new model and the process starts all over again. These opinion pieces, mostly negative, are a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, IronMan70 said: "experts" Who would you have leaders go to for guidance on any given subject? Non-experts? Perhaps people in completely unrelated fields? Or maybe they should just leans on their own experience in areas such as reality television, beauty pageants and divorce to make the best decisions for the health and safety of millions of Americans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 minute ago, McLoofus said: Who would you have leaders go to for guidance on any given subject? Non-experts? Perhaps people in completely unrelated fields? Or maybe they should just leans on their own experience in areas such as reality television, beauty pageants and divorce to make the best decisions for the health and safety of millions of Americans? If they are wrong on every projection what good are they. Or to put it another way, do they have no accountability ? Do they just get to keep pumping out BS with no consequences ? We shut this country down based on their so called models which are now off by a factor of 33. Even now, at this late date, they are changing them because they have been so wrong. They hold up their pontifications as expertise when in reality it is just guessing. Guessing that has caused a lot of damage in our response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, IronMan70 said: If they are wrong on every projection what good are they... ...We shut this country down based on their so called models which are now off by a factor of 33. Even now, at this late date, they are changing them because they have been so wrong. They hold up their pontifications as expertise when in reality it is just guessing. Guessing that has caused a lot of damage in our response. That didn't even remotely answer my question. As for changing their projections, you are evidently Exhibit A for what many suggested weeks ago. Which is how unfortunate it is that we might actually successfully mitigate this thing and some folks will somehow call it a bad game plan. My god, how ridiculous and frustrating. Have you paused to consider that they're changing their projections because they were so right? Because our response based on their expertise worked? That the only thing they miscalculated was our resolve to do it the right way? "Just guessing". I suppose you expect these folks to 100% accurately predict the outcome of an easily transmitted and deadly disease that had never been encountered before just a few months ago. Oh, and this is rich: Quote Or to put it another way, do they have no accountability ? Do they just get to keep pumping out BS with no consequences ? Even if that were even remotely on point... well, yes, evidently. It would qualify them for far more than just being the only smart people in the room. Quote Three years after taking the oath of office, President Trump has made more than 16,200 false or misleading claims — a milestone that would have been unthinkable when we first created the Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement he has uttered. But most importantly, I hope you'll take another shot at answering my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autigeremt 6,569 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 I’m no “expert”.... but what good is flattering a curve if it lasts 12 months v/s two months of spike with more and more people being exposed creates a path to antibody development and a “cure” for 80% plus? Quarantine the elderly and the preexisting and allow our bodies to create a defense mechanism. If the end result is still 60,000 plus dying but an elongated curve and depressed economy equals the same outcome maybe we should look at this more critically? BTW I’ve already had it and I’ve donated plasma for others to hopefully get better from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 8 hours ago, McLoofus said: Who would you have leaders go to for guidance on any given subject? Non-experts? Perhaps people in completely unrelated fields? Or maybe they should just leans on their own experience in areas such as reality television, beauty pageants and divorce to make the best decisions for the health and safety of millions of Americans? 7 hours ago, McLoofus said: That didn't even remotely answer my question. As for changing their projections, you are evidently Exhibit A for what many suggested weeks ago. Which is how unfortunate it is that we might actually successfully mitigate this thing and some folks will somehow call it a bad game plan. My god, how ridiculous and frustrating. Have you paused to consider that they're changing their projections because they were so right ? Because our response based on their expertise worked ? That the only thing they miscalculated was our resolve to do it the right way ? "Just guessing". I suppose you expect these folks to 100% accurately predict the outcome of an easily transmitted and deadly disease that had never been encountered before just a few months ago. Oh, and this is rich: Even if that were even remotely on point... well, yes, evidently. It would qualify them for far more than just being the only smart people in the room. Quote Three years after taking the oath of office, President Trump has made more than 16,200 false or misleading claims — a milestone that would have been unthinkable when we first created the Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement he has uttered. But most importantly, I hope you'll take another shot at answering my question. I made it pretty clear that the answer to your original post was that these "experts" were off by a factor of 33-40 which does not qualify them as experts to listen to when shutting down an economy. Use non-experts ? A silly question but your local weatherman is more accurate than these fools and we never shut down an economy over him. No, they didn't change their models because they were right, they were 3300 % wrong, now 4000% wrong. Their latest narrative is the line you bought, that they didn't take into account the response of the American people, except they did. If you check the assumptions on their original model they included that. They were SO wrong it's almost criminal. So from 2.5 million deaths (we shut down an economy for the 1st time in history over that guess-timate), lowered to 2.2 million, to 1.5 million, to 1 million, to 250 thousand, to 100 thousand, to 95 thousand, to 83 thousand and to 61 thousand now. We have lost 16,500 in the first 3 months of the year from this. That number could hit 30 or 40 thousand in which case it would be comparable to a bad flu season. We have those every year WITH a vaccine and never shut the country down. We even lost 60-70 thousand to the flu in 2017. If you listen closely to the daily briefing you can watch the excuses and bs in real time as they change their stories and the goal posts from day to day. Dr. Fauci is the worse of the lot and Dr. Birx runs a close second. He was way off on H1N1 too. If you want to believe his ever changing bs and think there should be no accountability, that's on you. He does need to be accountable, for his outrageously faulty models, the recommendations he pushed using them, the subsequent overreaction they caused and the damage. As far as your WAPO link, you can't be serious with that BS. This the same paper that called Trump a Russian spy for 2 years. I suppose you think he was a Russian spy too, lol ? They also said that the Steele dossier was factual, that a quid pro quo with Ukraine occurred (until Trump released the transcripts forcing them to retract) and on and on. Save those links for your own reading, the WAPO is a joke. Now the NYT is even parroting the Chinese propaganda line on COVID-19. By the way, did I mention we shut down the country over this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 11 hours ago, IronMan70 said: I made it pretty clear that the answer to your original post was that these "experts" were off by a factor of 33-40 which does not qualify them as experts to listen to when shutting down an economy. Use non-experts ? A silly question but your local weatherman is more accurate than these fools If it's such a silly question, it should be pretty easy for you to answer, which you still seem to have trouble doing. Unless you're proposing that the weatherman guide our policy on pandemics? Quote So from 2.5 million deaths (we shut down an economy for the 1st time in history over that guess-timate), lowered to 2.2 million, to 1.5 million, to 1 million, to 250 thousand, to 100 thousand, to 95 thousand, to 83 thousand and to 61 thousand now. We have lost 16,500 in the first 3 months of the year from this. That number could hit 30 or 40 thousand in which case it would be comparable to a bad flu season. We have those every year WITH a vaccine and never shut the country down. We even lost 60-70 thousand to the flu in 2017. Oh dear. You really don't understand how any of this works. You've spent so much time thinking about it, evidently, and yet have absolutely no understanding of any of it. We have been successful in limiting the deaths to relatively low numbers because of the measures that have been instituted. Do you really not understand that a virus that is comparable to a bad flu season even with the extreme measures we've put in place but no vaccine would be exponentially worse if the measures were not put in place? Christ, this is so simple. What is not sinking in with you? What's the difficult part to understand? Quote If you listen closely to the daily briefing you can watch the excuses and bs in real time Yes, that's why I quit watching them. You are referring to POTUS, yes? I mean, you do realize that we had boots on the ground in China until he pulled them out, yes? And that we might have had a much earlier warning on this if he hadn't? Well, a warning in addition to the ones from the intelligence agencies that he ignored in November? And that if he had taken testing seriously early on that we wouldn't need these extreme measures on such a broad scale? The last part isn't really a matter of opinion. Being able to test is the key to beating this. He whiffed badly on that. That part's not really up for debate. Quote If you want to believe his ever changing bs and think there should be no accountability, that's on you. He does need to be accountable What do you propose? Jail time? Also, why do you think he was chosen for that position? Do you think that he lobbied for the job? Do you think he somehow coerced Trump into appointing him? And, once again- I'll hope against hope that you'll eventually answer this- who should it be instead? Quote As far as your WAPO link There it is. Man. Imagine having a guy tell you that anyone who says something bad about him is wrong and believing him. Scary times with so many folks like you buying into this farce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 12,812 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 14 hours ago, autigeremt said: I’m no “expert”.... but what good is flattering a curve if it lasts 12 months v/s two months of spike with more and more people being exposed creates a path to antibody development and a “cure” for 80% plus? Quarantine the elderly and the preexisting and allow our bodies to create a defense mechanism. If the end result is still 60,000 plus dying but an elongated curve and depressed economy equals the same outcome maybe we should look at this more critically? BTW I’ve already had it and I’ve donated plasma for others to hopefully get better from it. It buys us time for treatment, expanding the testing other better run countries have and acquiring/distributing the PPE necessary if you want to phase in parts of the economy. Now much of the economy depends on what people are comfortable doing— travel, restaurants, big events— until we manage the virus better, the economy won’t improve no matter what government “allows.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 12,812 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 17 hours ago, IronMan70 said: If they are wrong on every projection what good are they. Or to put it another way, do they have no accountability ? Do they just get to keep pumping out BS with no consequences ? We shut this country down based on their so called models which are now off by a factor of 33. Even now, at this late date, they are changing them because they have been so wrong. They hold up their pontifications as expertise when in reality it is just guessing. Guessing that has caused a lot of damage in our response. See NYC? That’s how quickly this spreads when folks go on about their business. Changed behavior lowered the estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Yeah. Look at New York, Seattle, Wuhan or northern Italy for examples of how the alternative works. Entire health care systems collapsing under the weight of people needing treatment. Also, that 60,000 number is not the number if we don't attempt to flatten the curve. That is the number because we have successfully flattened the curve. Take out the social distancing and quarantine and we're having a much different conversation. Just unbelievable that the plan is actually working and people are bitching about it. Okay, so it's unfortunately very believable, and as previously mentioned even predicted. And let's remember something here. Neither Fauci nor any other doctor, scientist or expert- no need for the dumb scare quotes, as they are in fact experts- is calling the shots. It is our elected leaders- again, this isn't really up for debate- who are making the decisions. So criticism of how this is being handled needs to be directed at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Interesting read from a front line worker in NJ. https://time.com/paramedic-coronavirus-diary/?fbclid=IwAR2gIqkcBRvcrSKYtE_0SywHONixY6EFdZWCcqb2YBDn2UaDAhY2TYwhH5c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_M4_AU 7,773 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 22 hours ago, homersapien said: One person who is well positioned to shed light on what all this means is Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington state. His state was an initial epicenter, but there are signs the curve is flattening, which means Inslee both has extensive experience of how federal failures hampered the response and is already contemplating what comes next. In an interview, Inslee, a Democrat, shared fresh details on how President Trump’s lack of “urgency” is directly contributing to equipment shortages hobbling response efforts — and hinted at an alarming scenario ahead. “We could use a stronger voice out of the White House to mobilize this nation,” Inslee told me. “We need a giant leap for mankind now, not just small steps.” From a trusted source: Last week, the Army scrambled to set up a 250-bed field hospital in an events center next to Seattle's baseball stadium. This week, the state has decided it doesn't need it. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/09/830805085/washington-state-returns-unused-army-hospital-as-covid-19-curve-flattens Maybe if Governors would stop panicking and demanding supplies when they are not needed, the government could adequately supply the country. How many ventilators did we need in NY? 30,000, 40,000? When these week leaders start negotiating in the press this is what you end up with. Trump called out Cuomo as not needing everything he was panicked over and it turns out he was correct. It amazes me that the press will continually set itself up for a crow dinners and not let this thing play out. Of course, the only reason to be unreasonable is to sell their product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 More, for those who somehow seem to remain confused by the notion of overloading our healthcare systems: Quote The number of patients being treated at overflow hospitals in New York City has more than doubled in the last two days, the Department of Defense says.On Thursday, military doctors and nurses were treating 189 patients at the overflow hospital at the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan, including 15 patients who are being treated in an intensive care unit inside the facility. The Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort currently has 53 patients, including 10 who are critically ill with COVID-19. On Tuesday, the two facilities had fewer than 100 patients combined. The failure of the oxygen system at two hospitals in Queens on Tuesday evening is one reason for the larger number of critically ill patients being treated at the temporary hospitals. The New York Department of Emergency Management says 26 people with severe COVID-19 were moved from Jamaica Hospital Medical Center and Flushing Medical Center after the hospitals' centralized oxygen distribution systems were overloaded. Military nurses and respiratory therapists helped stabilize those patients while they were transported by ambulance, most of them to other local hospitals in New York City. Ten critically ill patients on ventilators were transported to the Comfort. Both the Comfort and the convention center are able to admit COVID-19 patients, a policy change that took full effect earlier this week and has led to a dramatic increase in the number of people being treated at both facilities. Maj. Gen. William Hall, who is leading the military's coronavirus task force, said he expects the number of patients being transferred to overflow hospitals to increase in the coming days. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/09/831288797/number-of-patients-at-overflow-hospitals-in-new-york-has-doubled?utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zjm0Qtk_DIWbwoD9LttkUSc3HEVnx6rX4VAqgzNJlaidqEQUYebHOM_8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaltyTiger 7,764 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 hours ago, TexasTiger said: Now much of the economy depends on what people are comfortable doing— travel, restaurants, big events— until we manage the virus better, the economy won’t improve no matter what government “allows.” Good points and post Tex. It was private business, the NBA, that came up with the initial shutdown. I would hope all understand the measures we taking is an effort to buy time and prevent overloads to the system that we have seen in NY. Doubt the numbers would need to be enormous to easily overload our medical institutions in less populated areas of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 22 hours ago, IronMan70 said: These experts with their modeling have been universally wrong as have been the opinions written about their flawed models. So the "experts" change their model, worthless opinions are written about the new model and the process starts all over again. These opinion pieces, mostly negative, are a waste of time. You are simply clueless. None of the models have been "flawed". They are all models based on epidemiology that reflect our response to the threat for better or worse. And that response has been dynamic. And no one has written about "flawed models", if so, provide an example and I will demonstrate exactly how they - and you - are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 22 hours ago, IronMan70 said: If they are wrong on every projection what good are they. Or to put it another way, do they have no accountability ? Do they just get to keep pumping out BS with no consequences ? We shut this country down based on their so called models which are now off by a factor of 33. Even now, at this late date, they are changing them because they have been so wrong. They hold up their pontifications as expertise when in reality it is just guessing. Guessing that has caused a lot of damage in our response. The so-called models are "off" by a factor of 33 because of our strategies of social distancing. You are seriously confused. These models are not simple predictions of what will happen regardless of what we do, they are predictions of what will happen based on the lack of a meaningful response. (The meaningful response being what you refer to as "all that damage". ) Epidemiology is not just "guessing". It's based on science, of which you are apparently - from your posts - totally ignorant. I hate to sound so arrogant about it, but damn man, just stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 19 hours ago, autigeremt said: I’m no “expert”.... but what good is flattering a curve if it lasts 12 months v/s two months of spike with more and more people being exposed creates a path to antibody development and a “cure” for 80% plus? Quarantine the elderly and the preexisting and allow our bodies to create a defense mechanism. If the end result is still 60,000 plus dying but an elongated curve and depressed economy equals the same outcome maybe we should look at this more critically? BTW I’ve already had it and I’ve donated plasma for others to hopefully get better from it. Flattening the curve buys time and reduces deaths from running out of critical supplies such as PPE and ventilators. If we had an excess of critical supplies the argument of promoting "herd" immunity might be more rational. (Sweden is apparantly trying this approach. Thank you for donating plasma. I am getting a lot of requests to donate blood, but I am in a high risk group and am a little torn about the risk/benefit at this point. Are you still working as an EMT? I have a couple of family members who suspect they may have been infected earlier in the year. It was rough. How do you know for sure you had it? It was my understanding that antibody testing is not yet available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Reported global deaths now over 100,000. It was half that less than 2 weeks ago. That is with extreme isolation measures in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 hours ago, I_M4_AU said: From a trusted source: Last week, the Army scrambled to set up a 250-bed field hospital in an events center next to Seattle's baseball stadium. This week, the state has decided it doesn't need it. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/09/830805085/washington-state-returns-unused-army-hospital-as-covid-19-curve-flattens Maybe if Governors would stop panicking and demanding supplies when they are not needed, the government could adequately supply the country. How many ventilators did we need in NY? 30,000, 40,000? When these week leaders start negotiating in the press this is what you end up with. Trump called out Cuomo as not needing everything he was panicked over and it turns out he was correct. It amazes me that the press will continually set itself up for a crow dinners and not let this thing play out. Of course, the only reason to be unreasonable is to sell their product. You have about the same degree of understanding epidemiology as Iron head 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, homersapien said: The so-called models are "off" by a factor of 33 because of our strategies of social distancing. You are seriously confused. These models are not simple predictions of what will happen regardless of what we do, they are predictions of what will happen based on the lack of a meaningful response. (The meaningful response being what you refer to as "all that damage". ) Epidemiology is not just "guessing". It's based on science, of which you are apparently - from your posts - totally ignorant. I hate to sound so arrogant about it, but damn man, just stop. We have two people on this thread making things up as they go along. Their model was not based on "regardless of what we do". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,354 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, IronMan70 said: We have two people on this thread making things up as they go along. Their model was not based on "regardless of what we do". You'll need to restate that, I have no idea what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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