Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people...

[aubiefifty 16,755]

i am not trying to alarm anyone i just want you guys to be safe. take from it what you will

...to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model

 

Yahoo

Kristin MyersYahoo FinanceMay 3, 2020, 7:00 AM CDT

4-5 minutes

---

New data from the University of Pennsylvania suggests that relaxing lockdowns across U.S. cities and states could have serious consequences for the country’s battle to contain the coronavirus, which has infected over a million people while killing more than 66,000 people.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

Kent Smetters, the PWBM’s director, said the decision to reopen states is ultimately a “normative judgement that comes down to the statistical value of life.”

He explained: “That’s not a crude way of saying we put a dollar value on life, but it’s the idea that people will take risks all the time for economic reward.”

That figure far surpasses estimates and models that the White House has cited from the University of Washington, which put the death toll at roughly 73,000 by the start of August.

The U.S. economy is reeling as statewide lockdowns have thrown 30 million Americans out of their jobs, and stoked a furious debate about how long the restrictions can remain in place. Some states, like Georgia, are choosing to partially reopen, allowing businesses like restaurants, hair salons, massage parlors, and more to open again.

However, partially reopening would also cause the death toll to rise, the university’s data found. An additional 45,000 lives would be lost, according to Wharton’s Budget Model, bringing the U.S.’s death toll from COVID-19 to 222,000.

However, the policy of reopening states would provide a much needed economic boost, according to the model.

“Almost all net job losses between May 1 and June 30 would be eliminated,” the report found.

To date, more than 1.1 million are infected by the virus, and over 65,000 have died.

Keeping stay at home orders in place would result in a growth contraction of 11.6% year over year, the data found, but opening the states would curb some of that decline somewhat, paring back the downturn to 10.1% year over year.

However, Wharton’s data found that the state lockdowns will result in a more dramatic increase in unemployment, boosting the total of unemployed to nearly 50 million. A partial reopening would partly blunt that impact, but not by much.

In a bright spot for the plan to open states, the PWBM projects that almost all net job losses would be eliminated.

The model aims to quantify the trade-off to the economic benefits of reopening states amid the coronavirus pandemic that has killed nearly 240,000 people worldwide, with some 60,000 deaths in the United States. 

The PWBM shows that when it comes to states’ plans to reopen their economies, not all states are created equal. One state’s decision could cause more damage than another.

If Colorado were to fully open, for example, the PWBM projected that by the end of June over 10,000 would die from coronavirus. That’s much higher than neighboring Kansas, where roughly 1,300 would lose their lives to COVID-19 under the same scenario.

And when it comes to economies, if Wisconsin stays closed, GDP would decline by 13%, compared to 10.8% in Maine. 

“You may look at some states and say ‘You know what, they’re not ready to reopen yet,’” Smetters said. 

Kristin Myers is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

 

[homersapien 11,362]

Oh there will be a resurgence, right around the election, if not before.

[SaltyTiger 7,789]

7 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i am not trying to alarm anyone i just want you guys to be safe. take from it what you will

You are not "alarming" anyone. No orders have been issued requiring all business to "reopen" ....nor for anyone to drag their ass to work fidy.

[Mikey 16,576]

Locking the country down was not done to keep people from getting this virus. The purpose of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" so medical facilities wouldn't be overwhelmed. As time passes, we are learning more and more about the coronavirus. Some 80+ percent of the people infected don't even seek medical care because they don't need it. In any case, the curve, if there ever was going to be one, is as flat as three-day old road kill. Hospitals are laying personnel off because of a high percentage of empty beds. The empty beds are a result of such "elective" surgeries as hernia repair, hip replacement and so forth being forbidden.  Meanwhile, tens of thousands of families are facing financial ruin because of lost income.

The effects of the alleged "cure" (the lockdown) are worse than the virus. In case you didn't notice, the most recent report from New York reveals that 66% of new cases were stay at home people and another 18% were in nursing homes. So, the lockdown is not working anyway.

[aubiefifty 16,755]

so now you are a health expert...............ok then.

[Grumps 3,704]

7 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

so now you are a health expert...............ok then.

It would make more sense if you would focus on whether or not he is correct.

[aubiefifty 16,755]

5 minutes ago, Grumps said:

It would make more sense if you would focus on whether or not he is correct.

i am listening to the health experts grumps just like i stated long ago. they removed fauci because he would not agree with trump. i understand the problem with businesses and i hurt for them but the fact people have to die is not something i am willing to do. lets look at it like this. would you sacrifice anyone in your family to get the economy going faster? when one is dead you run out of options. and i am not dying for the the economy. and i will not apologize. i stood up during the nam war and i was lucky as i spent my whole time other than training in the pentagon. and the people willing to put others in harms way is selfish to me. you do not have the basic right to throw me to the wolves. everyone is ignoring the second wave they say is coming. so what happens if you open the country and it happens again only worse? are we going to start from scratch again? are you willing to do that? i think you are but i hope you are wrong. and before anyone jumps me i hope we all make it safe. i do not want to see anyones children or grandchildren or granpa's and grandmothers pass. none. 

[Grumps 3,704]

4 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i am listening to the health experts grumps just like i stated long ago. they removed fauci because he would not agree with trump. i understand the problem with businesses and i hurt for them but the fact people have to die is not something i am willing to do. lets look at it like this. would you sacrifice anyone in your family to get the economy going faster? when one is dead you run out of options. and i am not dying for the the economy. and i will not apologize. i stood up during the nam war and i was lucky as i spent my whole time other than training in the pentagon. and the people willing to put others in harms way is selfish to me. you do not have the basic right to throw me to the wolves. everyone is ignoring the second wave they say is coming. so what happens if you open the country and it happens again only worse? are we going to start from scratch again? are you willing to do that? i think you are but i hope you are wrong. and before anyone jumps me i hope we all make it safe. i do not want to see anyones children or grandchildren or granpa's and grandmothers pass. none. 

Did they remove Fauci? When did that happen?

I sincerely thank you for your service and did not advocate sacrificing anyone. My only point was instead of accusing anyone of claiming to be an expert you could just explain how he was wrong.

[aubiefifty 16,755]

1 hour ago, Grumps said:

Did they remove Fauci? When did that happen?

I sincerely thank you for your service and did not advocate sacrificing anyone. My only point was instead of accusing anyone of claiming to be an expert you could just explain how he was wrong.

when was the last time you saw fauci? he was not fired that i read but not allowed to do the briefings because he contradicted trump so much. and as far as the back to work thing maybe i am coming on too hard but it just hit me like people wanting folks to go back to work too early as it was ok for them but maybe not your family? that was what i was seeing between the lines and i could be dead wrong. if so i freely apologize. from what i can tell ny seems to be declining while other parts of the country are heating up. i understand we need a robust economy i just think people need to be careful. i mean we have people refusing all safety guidelines by not wearing masks etc. hell they reported a guy for spitting on fuel pump handles probably thinking it was cute. but i would love for things to get back to normal. i miss football and going out to eat or taking in a movie. i truly hope the experts are wrong and this does end quick but  i have been let down by too many things to get my hope up.

[SaltyTiger 7,789]

On 5/3/2020 at 1:50 PM, homersapien said:

Oh there will be a resurgence, right around the election, if not before.

My bet is before. Up on PCB this afternoon and tonight. Similar to business a usual. Fine where we are but the masses are out at the condos. Sure the weekend will be a madhouse.

[Mikey 16,576]

9 hours ago, Grumps said:

 This post was quoted from aubiefifty. I don't know how or why the board is crediting it to Grumps. "i understand the problem with businesses and i hurt for them but the fact people have to die....."

The fact is that people staying home is not preventing anyone from dying. The vast majority of cases that seek medical attention are people that stayed home or are confined to nursing homes. Don't believe me, listen to Super Dem Cuomo. New York tracked current cases and found that 84% either stayed completely at home or were confined to nursing homes. Another 1% were in jails. People are safer from the virus if they go about their normal routines than they are sitting in their living rooms.

[Mikey 16,576]

1 hour ago, SaltyTiger said:

My bet is before. Up on PCB this afternoon and tonight. Similar to business a usual. Fine where we are but the masses are out at the condos. Sure the weekend will be a madhouse.

Florida's gov. was on TV tonight saying that they can find no correlation between the beach-going mobs on PCB for Spring break and increased illness. He did also say that it's a difficult population to trace.

[Grumps 3,704]

15 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The fact is that people staying home is not preventing anyone from dying. The vast majority of cases that seek medical attention are people that stayed home or are confined to nursing homes. Don't believe me, listen to Super Dem Cuomo. New York tracked current cases and found that 84% either stayed completely at home or were confined to nursing homes. Another 1% were in jails. People are safer from the virus if they go about their normal routines than they are sitting in their living rooms.

It doesn't make any difference, but it is odd that what you quoted says it was from me but was actually from aubiefifty. I ALWAYS capitalize the word "I". 😃

[Mikey 16,576]

14 minutes ago, Grumps said:

It doesn't make any difference, but it is odd that what you quoted says it was from me but was actually from aubiefifty. I ALWAYS capitalize the word "I". 😃

That is weird. I certainly quoted aubiefitty. I'll try to fix it.

[TexasTiger 12,829]

54 minutes ago, Grumps said:

It doesn't make any difference, but it is odd that what you quoted says it was from me but was actually from aubiefifty. I ALWAYS capitalize the word "I". 😃

i know

[DKW 86 7,419]

21 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i am listening to the health experts grumps just like i stated long ago. they removed fauci because he would not agree with trump. i understand the problem with businesses and i hurt for them but the fact people have to die is not something i am willing to do. lets look at it like this. would you sacrifice anyone in your family to get the economy going faster? when one is dead you run out of options. and i am not dying for the the economy. and i will not apologize. i stood up during the nam war and i was lucky as i spent my whole time other than training in the pentagon. and the people willing to put others in harms way is selfish to me. you do not have the basic right to throw me to the wolves. everyone is ignoring the second wave they say is coming. so what happens if you open the country and it happens again only worse? are we going to start from scratch again? are you willing to do that? i think you are but i hope you are wrong. and before anyone jumps me i hope we all make it safe. i do not want to see anyones children or grandchildren or granpa's and grandmothers pass. none. 

People die from Influenza every year.
People die from Car Crashs, Cancer, Obesity, etc. Why dont we stay at home for them?

Is economically destroying small businesses and individuals perfectly acceptable? 
Families going hungry because they cant work, That is acceptable to you?
Nurses and Medical Professionals laid off because they dont have work is okay?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-victim-americas-largest-health-systems/story?id=70317683

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-02/coronavirus-california-healthcare-workers-layoffs-furloughs

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/healthcare-job-cuts-coronavirus-worker-layoffs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/starved-for-cash-hospitals-and-doctor-groups-cut-staff-amid-pandemic/2020/04/09/d3593f54-79a7-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/49-hospitals-furloughing-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html

 

Funniest thing I read was outrage about an arrest not made in WY for not wearing a mask.
The population density in that area of WY is something like 3 People/Square Mile. Some folks in WY can go days and not see a soul. BUt they MUST still wear a mask, even when there is no chance of meeting someone.?

 

[aubiefifty 16,755]

1 hour ago, DKW 86 said:

People die from Influenza every year.
People die from Car Crashs, Cancer, Obesity, etc. Why dont we stay at home for them?

Is economically destroying small businesses and individuals perfectly acceptable? 
Families going hungry because they cant work, That is acceptable to you?
Nurses and Medical Professionals laid off because they dont have work is okay?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-victim-americas-largest-health-systems/story?id=70317683

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-02/coronavirus-california-healthcare-workers-layoffs-furloughs

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/healthcare-job-cuts-coronavirus-worker-layoffs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/starved-for-cash-hospitals-and-doctor-groups-cut-staff-amid-pandemic/2020/04/09/d3593f54-79a7-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/49-hospitals-furloughing-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html

 

Funniest thing I read was outrage about an arrest not made in WY for not wearing a mask.
The population density in that area of WY is something like 3 People/Square Mile. Some folks in WY can go days and not see a soul. BUt they MUST still wear a mask, even when there is no chance of meeting someone.?

 

you know if we just ignored the virus there would be a staggering amount of people dead.you can talk to me all day but i refuse to budge from this.

[DKW 86 7,419]

2 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

you know if we just ignored the virus there would be a staggering amount of people dead.you can talk to me all day but i refuse to budge from this.

Intelligent men must study and use and apply Reason to interact with the world.

[aubiefifty 16,755]

7 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

Intelligent men must study and use and apply Reason to interact with the world.

i am in the group most likely to kick if i get it so pardon me if i am not all gung ho about it. i stay at home and when i venture out because i have no choice i do all the mask gloves and sanitizer. and i honestly feel for folks but i will disagree all day. and there are too many idiots out there that do not care if they might give it to someone else. just about all the health officials claim it is too early. AND i believe trump is desperate to get reelected and could care less if people die or it or not.

[SaltyTiger 7,789]

9 hours ago, Mikey said:

Florida's gov. was on TV tonight saying that they can find no correlation between the beach-going mobs on PCB for Spring break and increased illness. He did also say that it's a difficult population to trace.

Well Mikey the spring break mobs on PCB passed it around to each other for a few days then took it back to their respective hometowns. If you recall PCB closed the beaches due to those mobs. Universities closed about the same time so my guess is a huge percentage went home. That is an impossible population to trace. 

Pic below is of PCB yesterday and all appear to be fairly responsible Not the same around the tower condos or the bar/grill decks and masks are not conducive to drinking. Appearance is one big party.

 

[aubiefifty 16,755]

salon.com

 

Woman who accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of sexual assault now claims Trump supporters paid her to lie

 

3-4 minutes

---

Diana Andrade claims right-wing provocateur Jacob Wohl and frequent accomplice Jack Burkman were behind the scheme

 

Travis Gettys

May 7, 2020 4:09PM (UTC)

This article originally appeared on Raw Story

A woman who had accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of sexual assault now claims she was paid to lie about the public health expert by a pair of President Donald Trump's supporters.

The woman says right-wing provocateur Jacob Wohl and his frequent accomplice Jack Burkman persuaded her to cast Fauci as the assailant using details from an actual sexual assault she survived just after high school, and they paid her to do it, reported Reason.

"The reality is that I've known Jacob since 2018 and that he charmed me into taking money to do this (see attached picture of us together)," said Diana Andrade in an email to the website. "[They also] had me do something like this . . . back in January."

Andrade said she decided to abandon her claims and try to record incriminating evidence against the pair after Wohl asked her to find another woman to accuse Fauci of sexual assault — as they've done to former special counsel Robert Mueller and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

"Let me tell you something, Diana," says Burkman on the nine-minute, 35-second call. "This guy shut the country down. He put 40 million people out of work. In a situation like that, you have to make up whatever you have to make up to stop that train and that's the way life works, OK? That's the way it goes."

Andrade reminds the pair that COVID-19 was dangerous, and asked them to take the outbreak seriously — but Burkman seemed excited about mass deaths.

"Mother Nature has to clean the barn every so often," Burkman says. "How real is it? Who knows? So what if 1 percent of the population goes? So what if you lose 400,000 people? 200,000 were elderly, the other 200,000 are the bottom of society. You got to clean out the barn. If it's real, it's a positive thing, for God's sake."

Andrade sounded horrified by his "survival of the fittest" argument, and then Wohl begged her to keep her mouth shut and stick with her story.

"What could be wrong, Diana?" Wohl asks. "You did a good job. You got paid. What's the problem? What seems to be the issue? You're freaking out. You're texting me late at night. What's the issue?"

Andrade asks whether a man who hand-delivered five figures to her in Los Angeles was actually a lawyer, as the pair claimed, and Wohl boasts that the attorney has White House connections.

"Yeah, he's a real lawyer," Wohl says. "He's a good lawyer."

Shortly after the call ended, Andrade decided to send the recording to Reason and expose the pair's nefarious scheme.

"I don't know how they do all these things and why they do all these things," Andrade said. "Also, he tried to frame Mueller . . . I'm like, how is he not in jail?"

 

Travis Gettys

[aubiefifty 16,755]

6 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Well Mikey the spring break mobs on PCB passed it around to each other for a few days then took it back to their respective hometowns. If you recall PCB closed the beaches due to those mobs. Universities closed about the same time so my guess is a huge percentage went home. That is an impossible population to trace. 

Pic below is of PCB yesterday and all appear to be fairly responsible Not the same around the tower condos or the bar/grill decks and masks are not conducive to drinking. Appearance is one big party.

 

salty word around the office is you wear a thong on the beach. is this true lad?  lol

[Grumps 3,704]

9 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

i know

That was very clever and subtle! Kudos! It is not easy to get in a jab on someone for being grammatically correct!

[wdefromtx 3,159]

12,500 people just got furloughed at the company my sister works at. Luckily she wasn’t one of them. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.