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doc4aday

Play the season without fans at the stadium

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36 minutes ago, AlaskanFAN said:

For those who chose to debate and need stats to back up your pros/cons for opening or not then go here, direct from the great state of Alabama Department of Public Health.  It is updated twice a day usually around 8 am and 4pm.  They have also got breakdown by counties and lots of pretty charts and graphs. A little FYI as of today at 8am, 31% of the states confirmed cases have come in the last 14 days, but so has 39% of the testing.

https://www.alabamanews.net/2020/05/08/live-interactive-map-of-alabama-coronavirus-cases/

So the case rate is going down....a good sign.

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2 hours ago, Mikey said:

There are two tests, one that shows if you are currently "sick" and the antibody test that shows that you once had the virus and are now over it. That's how people know he no longer has the virus.

 

That's why I wrote: "At one point in the past he was contagious but that time has passed." See my previous post. If one thinks the recent Stanford University survey extrapolates to the rest of the country, then 85% of the people that get this virus never even recognized that they had it. It appears Dye falls into that category. We simply cannot indefinitely quarantine every person that MIGHT spread the virus.

Philosophy on the question doesn't matter much anyway. If restrictions aren't continually lightened, organized civil disobedience by millions of Americans is only a few weeks away.

I guess this shoots a big hole in the idea that testing, contact tracing and isolation will *control* the virus as it would be near *impossible* to test every person in the U.S. to see if they have had it.

It appears college football has made the decision not to lose $4 billion and put mitigations in place to protect the players, coaches and staff.  It is up to the rest of us to decide it we want to participate in this activity.  

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5 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

On this note, why in the hell are you going into a Walmart anyways. Pay $100.00 a year and get unlimited deliveries.

As far as wearing a mask? It's all about the one you are wearing. The homemade ones are a joke and don't do anything but put you at a higher risk, they are hot and condense you sweat and siliva and stay wet. Trapping all the things you are wearing the mask to protect you aginst.

This is like anything else in life, use common sense and you will be OK.

 

i got a friend that uses them and they get duplicate items, missing items,and they say they have to sit outside for an hour when it is supposed to be minutes. i guess it could be just that walmart he goes to.

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6 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

i got a friend that uses them and they get duplicate items, missing items,and they say they have to sit outside for an hour when it is supposed to be minutes. i guess it could be just that walmart he goes to.

Kroger curbside pickup in my area is good. They don't always have what you order and the replacements aren't always perfect but it's super convenient and they're always on time.

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My sense of this is that public opinion is starting to coalesce around the fact that this doesn't seem to be more dangerous than a nasty flu to the young and healthy.  People want to open up, and let those who want to stay at home stay at home.

I'm not saying it's right or wrong, and I don't want to have a political debate. It's just the vibe I feel from those I talk to.

 

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18 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i got a friend that uses them and they get duplicate items, missing items,and they say they have to sit outside for an hour when it is supposed to be minutes. i guess it could be just that walmart he goes to.

We’ve had problems with all of them...Costco, Walmart, Publix.

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9 hours ago, Cardin Drake said:

My sense of this is that public opinion is starting to coalesce around the fact that this doesn't seem to be more dangerous than a nasty flu to the young and healthy.  People want to open up, and let those who want to stay at home stay at home.

I'm not saying it's right or wrong, and I don't want to have a political debate. It's just the vibe I feel from those I talk to.

 

It's not just young and healthy. We opened yesterday after almost 7 weeks closed. We had a huge day and comped last year sales, which is always a good day. Our customer base is pretty much a fifty fifty split in age demographic but the amount of seniors we had yesterday was surprising. On top of that less than half wore a mask. All employees are wearing them but Mississippi only recommends them for residents. Whether it's for the best or not people are ready to get out and they will. 

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18 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Kroger curbside pickup in my area is good. They don't always have what you order and the replacements aren't always perfect but it's super convenient and they're always on time.

That is why I'm hesitant to use a pickup or delivery service. With a lot of items I just like a particular brand and will do without if they don't have it. Seems like a great way for a store to push a brand that isn't selling well. 

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21 hours ago, McLoofus said:

As for the antibody test, I'm well aware of the difference but I haven't seen it reported anywhere that that's what he(Coach Dye) had done. Everything I've seen reported said that he tested positive for the virus "a few days ago"/"last week" (I've seen it both ways and not any more specific than that) and is currently "essentially asymptomatic". I've seen no mention of an antibody test or all-clear. 

Normal procedure is to get both tests done at the same time. Drive up to any Doc in the Box location and that's what they will do. You can bet on this: Had the virus been active, still contagious and in any way related to Dye's trip to the hospital, that would have been the big headline.

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3 minutes ago, gr82be said:

That is why I'm hesitant to use a pickup or delivery service. With a lot of items I just like a particular brand and will do without if they don't have it. Seems like a great way for a store to push a brand that isn't selling well. 

I suppose that could be true. But I'd like to think that the staffers actually going around fulfilling these orders aren't being entrusted to intentionally- and discreetly- commit fraud when filling the grocery bags. Could be wrong.

Now, the stores could be doing that in the ordering process by not making the better selling brands available to begin with, and that might be what you were referring to. But that's not a situation where I'm getting something other than what I ordered.

Twice I've ordered meat from Kroger and they ended up not having it in stock, so they replaced it with either more expensive meat or a greater quantity of the next-most expensive cut. Both times I "won" the transaction in that I paid less than the actual price of the product.

There have been some losses, too, but it beats the hell out of going inside and sharing air with a bunch of no-mask morons. Actually, it beats the hell out of non-pandemic grocery shopping some days. Pull into a space, call the number, have the bags dropped right into the wayback? No impulse ice cream purchases? No running into that one acquaintance with whom it's impossible to have a conversation less than 15 minutes long? And my fee for this services is getting Private Select Woven Wheat Crackers instead of Triscuits? I'm willing to make that compromise. 

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19 hours ago, I_M4_AU said:

guess this shoots a big hole in the idea that testing, contact tracing and isolation will *control* the virus as it would be near *impossible* to test every person in the U.S. to see if they have had it.

Here's the thing about mass testing: Suppose today you and I get tested and turn up negative in both tests. (antibody and active) So what then? Do we get tested again in 24 hours? 48? Just when do we get re-tested? Does everyone in the country continually get tested until they finally catch this bug? How many gazillions of tests will that take, and at what terrible expense of dollars, time and resources? Maybe someone can explain how such a testing scheme is practical or even possible, but I don't see it.

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1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Here's the thing about mass testing: Suppose today you and I get tested and turn up negative in both tests. (antibody and active) So what then? Do we get tested again in 24 hours? 48? Just when do we get re-tested? Does everyone in the country continually get tested until they finally catch this bug? How many gazillions of tests will that take, and at what terrible expense of dollars, time and resources? Maybe someone can explain how such a testing scheme is practical or even possible, but I don't see it.

I’m sure it sounds good on paper, but when you try to implement the plan it is just overwhelming.

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7 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I suppose that could be true. But I'd like to think that the staffers actually going around fulfilling these orders aren't being entrusted to intentionally- and discreetly- commit fraud when filling the grocery bags. Could be wrong.

Now, the stores could be doing that in the ordering process by not making the better selling brands available to begin with, and that might be what you were referring to. But that's not a situation where I'm getting something other than what I ordered.

Twice I've ordered meat from Kroger and they ended up not having it in stock, so they replaced it with either more expensive meat or a greater quantity of the next-most expensive cut. Both times I "won" the transaction in that I paid less than the actual price of the product.

There have been some losses, too, but it beats the hell out of going inside and sharing air with a bunch of no-mask morons. Actually, it beats the hell out of non-pandemic grocery shopping some days. Pull into a space, call the number, have the bags dropped right into the wayback? No impulse ice cream purchases? No running into that one acquaintance with whom it's impossible to have a conversation less than 15 minutes long? And my fee for this services is getting Private Select Woven Wheat Crackers instead of Triscuits? I'm willing to make that compromise. 

Sounds like your experiences have been good ones. I use a gluten app to determine which brands I can eat and which I can't. For instance Aunt Jemima syrup is gluten free but many syrups aren't including private labels. The same goes for a lot of things that are specifically labeled as a gluten free item, sometimes you have to research it. I'm probably just being wary of someone not paying attention to that detail and me getting home with a bunch of stuff I can't eat.

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1 minute ago, gr82be said:

Sounds like your experiences have been good ones. I use a gluten app to determine which brands I can eat and which I can't. For instance Aunt Jemima syrup is gluten free but many syrups aren't including private labels. The same goes for a lot of things that are specifically labeled as a gluten free item, sometimes you have to research it. I'm probably just being wary of someone not paying attention to that detail and me getting home with a bunch of stuff I can't eat.

Gotcha. Yeah, I am fortunate not to have any concerns of that nature, so I'm looking at it from a less discerning angle. Were I in your shoes (or those of folks with any number of other concerns), I'd certainly feel differently.

And the experiences do change from store to store, no question about that. We have a good one in Hilton Head and a good one in Savannah, but there are a couple others in the region we haven't tried and we suspect would be less satisfactory. 

Luck of the draw, I suppose.

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As for what is possible in other countries that have tested and traced more than we have... South Korea has had 11,142 confirmed cases and 264 deaths. The United States has 1,610,000 cases and 95,213 deaths. If you reduced the US's numbers to account for the difference in population size, the US would have 241,500 cases and over 14,000 deaths. Even accounting for differences in reporting methodology, those are two starkly different outcomes. The main difference is that Korea was testing and tracing on a wide scale early on.

They're a lot further along with their reopening, too.

Edit: Meant to say about those numbers... that the disparity of positive cases is probably far higher given how much more per capita South Korea has tested. As in, we likely have far more positive cases that we just don't know about than they do. So our infection rate is likely even higher relative to theirs than the hard data already shows.

Edited by McLoofus
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Another thing you have to realize about South Korea is; it is about the size of (population wise) Florida and California and it could control the movement of visitors rather easily as no one is traveling from North Korea to South Korea and they have a 14 day mandatory quarantine for people coming in.  They started testing and tracing early and it was affective, our window of opportunity has closed.

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5 hours ago, Mikey said:

Here's the thing about mass testing:  Maybe someone can explain how such a testing scheme is practical or even possible, but I don't see it.

     

Everyone doesn't need to be tested.   It is a very simple concept.  It will not be practical if you do not have a flat curve or open up too soon.  (which is where we are now). 

 you and I  will  most likely not ever have to be tested.  or quarantine. 

With a flat curve,   we can control if the virus.   We have No control right now. we don't know who has it, where they have been or who they have contacted.  Mass testing will help.   

With 300+ new cases a day in Alabama, there is not enough man power to trace contacts.  We could possibly  push it with  manpower with one  hundred new cases a day  to trace the contacts.  Then, only the positives and who they have  been in contact with will have to quarantine and monitor (14 days) and retest. Everyone else, including you and me, could live pretty darn normally.  No masks, little social distancing.   But tracing is man power, and man hour intensive


If you have been in contact with a positive, you get a 14 day quarantine, rather than everyone sheltering all the time. 

Who knows how many people Dye (as an example) may have infected,  but It would be closer to zero if he was contacted and told he may have been in contact with someone that has it.  Told to quarantine and get tested before he would even show positive.  Anyone he may have been in contact with  while he was contagious  would have to quarantine (14 days) and reduce the risk  of spread further.   The stopping becomes exponential,  just like the growth of the spread.    

This only works with a flat curve, but it works very well.  There are a half dozen countries that have not had new cases in days by using this method.  More every couple weeks.  A few that still have flair ups,  but they contain them  quickly before they get out of hand.    Some have not had new cases in weeks.   

 

Edited by Quietmaninthecorner
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3 hours ago, I_M4_AU said:

Another thing you have to realize about South Korea is; it is about the size of (population wise) Florida and California and it could control the movement of visitors rather easily as no one is traveling from North Korea to South Korea and they have a 14 day mandatory quarantine for people coming in.  They started testing and tracing early and it was affective, our window of opportunity has closed.

I may be wrong about this, but I thought I read South Korea had fought a similar virus a few years ago and had a better plan than most countries. Already knew to test and trace, etc. again, I’ve read so much that it all runs together

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3 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

I may be wrong about this, but I thought I read South Korea had fought a similar virus a few years ago and had a better plan than most countries. Already knew to test and trace, etc. again, I’ve read so much that it all runs together

Yup. And I'm pretty sure they were willing to share that info with anyone who asked. I know they sold a bunch of tests to Maryland when the governor there couldn't get them domestically.

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13 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

I may be wrong about this, but I thought I read South Korea had fought a similar virus a few years ago and had a better plan than most countries. Already knew to test and trace, etc. again, I’ve read so much that it all runs together

I believe you are correct on this.  South Korea is a lot more experienced at this than most other countries.

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1 hour ago, Quietmaninthecorner said:

There are a half dozen countries that have not had new cases in days by using this method. 

Please let us know who these are and if they are all island countries.  South Korea and New Zealand are two.  Not exactly apple to apples when compared to the U.S.

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59 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Please let us know who these are and if they are all island countries.  South Korea and New Zealand are two.  Not exactly apple to apples when compared to the U.S.

Being on an island just proves isolation  and social distance work.    Weather it is a an island or or low populated country doesn't matter.   Forced isolation or natural from being on an island  shows how this works.  fewer cases lead to contact tracing and an eradication of active cases.  The only difference is that in the USA we have so many that refused to follow the protocols that are known to work.   The strategy is the same tho,  it just needs to be on a on a much larger scale in the USA.  Or be implemented on a state or city level.

I have already posted a list of countries on this board..  Among  others ,  and just off the top of my head there was...

   Trinidad and Tobago,  Dominica, Cambodia, Eritrea, Montenegro, st. Kitts, Seychelles, Montserrat. along with New Zealand, S Korea,  (Australia on it's way)

 

edit:  and  Israel austria  Switzerland, and Czechia are getting close.    China  . ...IF you can believe their numbers.   they still have flair ups,  but they lock down the area ASAP to keep it from getting out of control. 

Edited by Quietmaninthecorner

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25 minutes ago, Quietmaninthecorner said:

Being on an island just proves isolation works.    Weather it is a an island or or low populated country doesn't matter.   Forced isolation or natural from being on an island  shows how this works.  fewer cases lead to contact tracing and an eradication of active cases.  The only difference is that in the USA we have so many that refused to follow the protocols that are known to work.   The strategy is the same tho,  it just needs to be on a on a much larger scale in the USA.  Or be implemented on a state or city level.

I have already posted a list of countries on this board..  Among  others ,  and just off the top of my head there was...

   Trinidad and Tobago,  Dominica, Cambodia, Eritrea, Montenegro, st. Kitts, Seychelles, Montserrat. along with New Zealand, S Korea,  (Australia on it's way)

 

edit:  and  Israel austria  Switzerland, and Czechia are getting close.    China  . ...IF you can believe their numbers.   they still have flair ups,  but they lock down the area ASAP to keep it from getting out of control. 

We live in America, the land of the free, and we a did good job with the stay in place orders to *flatten the curve* (not eliminate it).  When your government starts to move the goal post is when Free People start to raise the :bs: .  Only certain Governors have been authoritarian, but every person gets to decide how he/she is going to handle this.  

Being an island makes it much easier to isolate, much easier.  It works, but not with 330 million freedom loving citizens that travel from state to state on (essential) business.  I wonder how New Zealand is going to fair when they loosen their travel restrictions.  Are they going to wait until there is a vaccine?

Remember Bloomberg was going to head up the *contact tracing* in NY?  Have you heard much from him?  How’s he doing and why haven’t we started that? 

Still, there’s a lot of skepticism for developers to overcome. A poll by Axios and Ipsos Group found 66% of respondents said they would reject an app developed by tech companies, and even more wouldn’t download one from the U.S. government. “The whole concept of American democracy is about local control and civil liberties,” Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, said in a statement with the poll results.

There’s a long way to go to make the apps effective enough to override the privacy concerns, technical issues, and current haphazard approaches around the globe. In the meantime, municipalities such as New York City plan to hire thousands of human contact tracers to do the work the old-fashioned way. Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Businessweek, is donating $10.5 million to that effort together with Bloomberg Philanthropies.

“Contact-tracing apps need to be reliable, transparent, anonymous, and voluntary,” says Woodhams. “Without this, they will remain in a counterproductive, self-perpetuating cycle that continually drives down the number of users and limits their effectiveness.” —With Gerrit De Vynck

BOTTOM LINE - The benefits of contact-tracing apps are getting lost in the debate over privacy, state surveillance, and whether the technology is even reliable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/big-tech-and-government-s-contact-tracing-systems-have-flaws

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4 hours ago, I_M4_AU said:

We live in America, the land of the free, and we a did good job with the stay in place orders to *flatten the curve* (not eliminate it).  When your government starts to move the goal post is when Free People start to raise the :bs: .  Only certain Governors have been authoritarian, but every person gets to decide how he/she is going to handle this.  

Being an island makes it much easier to isolate, much easier.  It works, but not with 330 million freedom loving citizens that travel from state to state on (essential) business.  I wonder how New Zealand is going to fair when they loosen their travel restrictions.  Are they going to wait until there is a vaccine?

Remember Bloomberg was going to head up the *contact tracing* in NY?  Have you heard much from him?  How’s he doing and why haven’t we started that? 

Still, there’s a lot of skepticism for developers to overcome. A poll by Axios and Ipsos Group found 66% of respondents said they would reject an app developed by tech companies, and even more wouldn’t download one from the U.S. government. “The whole concept of American democracy is about local control and civil liberties,” Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, said in a statement with the poll results.

There’s a long way to go to make the apps effective enough to override the privacy concerns, technical issues, and current haphazard approaches around the globe. In the meantime, municipalities such as New York City plan to hire thousands of human contact tracers to do the work the old-fashioned way. Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Businessweek, is donating $10.5 million to that effort together with Bloomberg Philanthropies.

“Contact-tracing apps need to be reliable, transparent, anonymous, and voluntary,” says Woodhams. “Without this, they will remain in a counterproductive, self-perpetuating cycle that continually drives down the number of users and limits their effectiveness.” —With Gerrit De Vynck

BOTTOM LINE - The benefits of contact-tracing apps are getting lost in the debate over privacy, state surveillance, and whether the technology is even reliable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/big-tech-and-government-s-contact-tracing-systems-have-flaws

So you are saying isolation works,  but only for small or island countries.  Yeah it is harder to do here,  But it is worth the effort or would have been if we actually got our curve flat.    

NY needs to flatten the curve a lot more before contact tracing can be effective there.  

tracing apps are crap.   They  are not the same of true contact tracing.   Contact tracing with humans has been done for decades.  Humans need to be the main tracers to do it right.  A proper app may help the tracers do their job, but it is not necessary.    And, like you said,   most people will not want a "tracing app" on their phones.    Good thing apps are not needed to contact trace. 

New Zealand will be fine when they open up to travelers.  From what I read, they  plan to test  and isolate incomers as needed.    You come in clean,  you go on.   If you come in infected you go quarantine.  If you are infected and get past the screen,   more will get infected,  but they can be contact traced and quarantined before it gets out of control. .    Anyone  (and only those) that have been in contact with with said person will  be quarantined.... stopping the chain.   It is a little more complicated than that,  but that is the gist.  

Islands make it easier.    I never said it would be easy in America. Sometime you have to do things that are not easy.   Contact tracing apps will not work.  T hey may help a bit,   but real tracing  needs to be done by humans.   NY  has  not flattened the curve, tracing will not work if the virus is running uncontrolled in the wild.   They were flattening the curve,  but  it will be a long time before they can use tracing. 

 

and those listed are not all islands, or  small countries.  

Edited by Quietmaninthecorner

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I have conceded that the country will open way too fast and way too quickly. It is what it is. Now all my effort is to ensuring those close to me, myself and others I am direct contact with are as safe as possible by controlling my actions and educating to those who seek it. 

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