'They are angry:' Pandemic and economic collapse slam Trump across Rust Belt

[homersapien 11,352]

Coronavirus infections and unemployment filings are spiraling in parts of the industrial Midwest where Donald Trump cleaned up in 2016.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/coronavirus-economic-collapse-rust-belt-trump-259657

[wdefromtx 3,159]

I laugh every time I see where they say Trump is lagging in the polls. We heard that for 4 months in 2016. 

They don’t realize it’s probably the same as last time when people didn’t tell the pollsters who they were really going to vote for. 

[SocialCircle 570]

Recent CNN poll had Trump up by 7 points in all 15 battleground states. He was up in each of these states. It appears citizens aren’t  taking the prolonged shutdowns very well in places like PA and MI and understand it is their Democrat governor who is to blame. The CNN poll also reveals citizens overwhelmingly believe Trump can get the economy back on track much better than Biden. I suspect the longer these shutdowns last, the more it actually helps Trump because it is now clear Republicans want to open things back up and Democrats want to keep things closed down. Once a few more of these polls come out you will soon see Democrat governors opening back up quicker than they said they would. This is especially true as folks in MI and the like see Georgia and Florida opening up and cases and hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 trending downward in the “free” states.  

[homersapien 11,352]

3 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

Recent CNN poll had Trump up by 7 points in all 15 battleground states. He was up in each of these states. It appears citizens aren’t  taking the prolonged shutdowns very well in places like PA and MI and understand it is their Democrat governor who is to blame. The CNN poll also reveals citizens overwhelmingly believe Trump can get the economy back on track much better than Biden. I suspect the longer these shutdowns last, the more it actually helps Trump because it is now clear Republicans want to open things back up and Democrats want to keep things closed down. Once a few more of these polls come out you will soon see Democrat governors opening back up quicker than they said they would. This is especially true as folks in MI and the like see Georgia and Florida opening up and cases and hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 trending downward in the “free” states.  

That's probably true.

But I think your prognosis about the future is wrong.  The science of this virus suggests there will be a rebound - if not before this fall, then certainly during the fall.  We don't have the testing and tracing capability in place to be opening at the rate we are.  Without that, it cannot be controlled. The virus could give a s*** about our politics.

And when the rebound occurs, Trump will own it.

[homersapien 11,352]

Here's an interesting piece on the political aspects of the pandemic:

Experts have jobs. They need to understand those who don’t.

By

Fareed Zakaria 

Columnist

May 14, 2020

If anyone thought a global pandemic that has so far killed more than 80,000 Americans would override the country’s deep partisan divide, think again. It turns out that Democrats are significantly more likely than Republicans to believe that the pandemic is serious and to follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Cellphone data shows that people in counties that voted for Donald Trump have been moving around more than those in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton.

This has led many to wonder why partisanship has become so strong in the United States that people will not listen to experts, even at the risk of their own health. But there is a broader distrust that we need to understand. I recognized it while reading a book that is not about covid-19 at all but sheds strong light on the situation. Explaining why so many people across the West have rejected the government establishment, Michael Lind writes, “The issue is not the issue. . . . The issue is power. Social power exists in three realms — government, the economy, and the culture. Each of these three realms of social power is the site of class conflict.”

Lind’s book, “The New Class War,” argues that the best way to understand America today is through the lens of class conflict, which has been sharpened by the rise of an “overclass” that dominates the three spheres he mentions. In all three, leaders tend to be urban, college-educated professionals, often with a postgraduate degree. That makes them quite distinct from much of the rest of the country. Only 36 percent of Americans have a bachelor’s degree, and only 13 percent have a master’s or more. And yet, the top echelons everywhere are filled with this “credentialed overclass.”

For many non-college-educated people, especially those living in rural areas, there is a deep alienation from this new elite. They see the overclass as enacting policies that are presented as good for the whole country but really mostly benefit people from the ruling class, whose lives have gotten better over the past few decades while the rest are left behind. In this view, trade and immigration help college-educated professionals who work for multinational companies but hurt blue-collar workers. So when they hear from “experts” about the inevitability of globalization and technological change and the need to accept it, they resist. It does not resonate with their lived experience.

Let’s look at the covid-19 crisis through this prism. Imagine you are an American who works with his hands — a truck driver, a construction worker, an oil rig mechanic — and you have just lost your job because of the lockdowns, as have more than 36 million people. You turn on the television and hear medical experts, academics, technocrats and journalists explain that we must keep the economy closed — in other words, keep you unemployed — because public health is important. All these people making the case have jobs, have maintained their standards of living and in fact are now in greater demand. They feel as though they are doing important work. You, on the other hand, have lost your job. You feel a sense of worthlessness, and you’re terrified about your family’s day-to-day survival. Is it so hard to understand why people like this might be skeptical of the experts?

The covid-19 divide is a class divide. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report last year on the “job flexibilities” of U.S. employees. Of the top 25 percent of income earners, more than 60 percent can stay home and still do their jobs. Of the bottom 25 percent, fewer than 10 percent can do the same. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he understands that maintaining these guidelines is “inconvenient.” For many people, they are not just inconvenient; they are life-shattering. Not all of those who work on the front lines or work with their hands are Trump voters — — but all understand that it is a luxury to be able to work from home.

No one in the United States or elsewhere can claim to know the right way to move ahead. Even Fauci acknowledged that, when he was asked whether schools should open. “I don’t have an easy answer to that. I just don’t,” he said. “Situations regarding school will be very different in one region versus another.” Regarding the economy, he noted, “I don’t give advice about economic things. I don’t give advice about anything other than public health.” He’s right to acknowledge the limits of any one area of expertise.

So let’s all recognize that we need to hear many voices as we make these difficult decisions, and that those making the decisions need to have empathy for all Americans — those whose lives are at risk, but also those whose lives have been turned upside down in other ways by this horrible disease.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/experts-have-jobs-they-need-to-understand-those-who-dont/2020/05/14/e715e534-9620-11ea-91d7-cf4423d47683_story.html

[wdefromtx 3,159]

26 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Here's an interesting piece on the political aspects of the pandemic:

Experts have jobs. They need to understand those who don’t.

By

Fareed Zakaria 

Columnist

May 14, 2020

If anyone thought a global pandemic that has so far killed more than 80,000 Americans would override the country’s deep partisan divide, think again. It turns out that Democrats are significantly more likely than Republicans to believe that the pandemic is serious and to follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Cellphone data shows that people in counties that voted for Donald Trump have been moving around more than those in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton.

This has led many to wonder why partisanship has become so strong in the United States that people will not listen to experts, even at the risk of their own health. But there is a broader distrust that we need to understand. I recognized it while reading a book that is not about covid-19 at all but sheds strong light on the situation. Explaining why so many people across the West have rejected the government establishment, Michael Lind writes, “The issue is not the issue. . . . The issue is power. Social power exists in three realms — government, the economy, and the culture. Each of these three realms of social power is the site of class conflict.”

Lind’s book, “The New Class War,” argues that the best way to understand America today is through the lens of class conflict, which has been sharpened by the rise of an “overclass” that dominates the three spheres he mentions. In all three, leaders tend to be urban, college-educated professionals, often with a postgraduate degree. That makes them quite distinct from much of the rest of the country. Only 36 percent of Americans have a bachelor’s degree, and only 13 percent have a master’s or more. And yet, the top echelons everywhere are filled with this “credentialed overclass.”

For many non-college-educated people, especially those living in rural areas, there is a deep alienation from this new elite. They see the overclass as enacting policies that are presented as good for the whole country but really mostly benefit people from the ruling class, whose lives have gotten better over the past few decades while the rest are left behind. In this view, trade and immigration help college-educated professionals who work for multinational companies but hurt blue-collar workers. So when they hear from “experts” about the inevitability of globalization and technological change and the need to accept it, they resist. It does not resonate with their lived experience.

Let’s look at the covid-19 crisis through this prism. Imagine you are an American who works with his hands — a truck driver, a construction worker, an oil rig mechanic — and you have just lost your job because of the lockdowns, as have more than 36 million people. You turn on the television and hear medical experts, academics, technocrats and journalists explain that we must keep the economy closed — in other words, keep you unemployed — because public health is important. All these people making the case have jobs, have maintained their standards of living and in fact are now in greater demand. They feel as though they are doing important work. You, on the other hand, have lost your job. You feel a sense of worthlessness, and you’re terrified about your family’s day-to-day survival. Is it so hard to understand why people like this might be skeptical of the experts?

The covid-19 divide is a class divide. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report last year on the “job flexibilities” of U.S. employees. Of the top 25 percent of income earners, more than 60 percent can stay home and still do their jobs. Of the bottom 25 percent, fewer than 10 percent can do the same. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he understands that maintaining these guidelines is “inconvenient.” For many people, they are not just inconvenient; they are life-shattering. Not all of those who work on the front lines or work with their hands are Trump voters — — but all understand that it is a luxury to be able to work from home.

No one in the United States or elsewhere can claim to know the right way to move ahead. Even Fauci acknowledged that, when he was asked whether schools should open. “I don’t have an easy answer to that. I just don’t,” he said. “Situations regarding school will be very different in one region versus another.” Regarding the economy, he noted, “I don’t give advice about economic things. I don’t give advice about anything other than public health.” He’s right to acknowledge the limits of any one area of expertise.

So let’s all recognize that we need to hear many voices as we make these difficult decisions, and that those making the decisions need to have empathy for all Americans — those whose lives are at risk, but also those whose lives have been turned upside down in other ways by this horrible disease.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/experts-have-jobs-they-need-to-understand-those-who-dont/2020/05/14/e715e534-9620-11ea-91d7-cf4423d47683_story.html

It's only taken...what?....2 months for someone to realize this? Ugh. lol 

[homersapien 11,352]

1 minute ago, wdefromtx said:

It's only taken...what?....2 months for someone to realize this? Ugh. lol 

You may not have noticed, but the article was not specifically about the pandemic.

It used the pandemic as an example to describe the underpinnings of the social/economic divide that has been affecting the country for decades.  

"Let’s look at the covid-19 crisis through this prism."

So, yeah, "Ugh. lol"

(Must you end every post with "lol"?)

[wdefromtx 3,159]

8 minutes ago, homersapien said:

You may not have noticed, but the article was not specifically about the pandemic.

It used the pandemic as an example to describe the underpinnings of the social/economic divide that has been affecting the country for decades.  

"Let’s look at the covid-19 crisis through this prism."

So, yeah, "Ugh. lol"

(Must you end every post with "lol"?)

I am specifically referring to Covid-19 and the connection that someone made to it. 

 

I could end every post with WTF if that works for you? 

[SocialCircle 570]

2 hours ago, homersapien said:

That's probably true.

But I think your prognosis about the future is wrong.  The science of this virus suggests there will be a rebound - if not before this fall, then certainly during the fall.  We don't have the testing and tracing capability in place to be opening at the rate we are.  Without that, it cannot be controlled. The virus could give a s*** about our politics.

And when the rebound occurs, Trump will own it.

We know more about exactly who the virus attacks now. Those who are elderly and those who have underlying medical conditions would be advised to continue to shelter in place until there is a proven medical regiment that unquestionably mitigates the effects of this virus or there is a vaccine.  ALL others should be free to open up and get back out and live life.  Hopefully we will have proven medicine by the time there is a rebound if there is one. And even if we don't have the medicine, the rebound will not result in death as long as those who are elderly and/or have underlying medical conditions continue to shelter in place.  Hopefully if there is a rebound with this virus, at least folks like the governors of NY, PA, NJ, and MI will NOT send those elderly patients with Covid-19 back in with the other residents of those facilities.  

[autigeremt 6,569]

On 5/15/2020 at 10:09 AM, homersapien said:

That's probably true.

But I think your prognosis about the future is wrong.  The science of this virus suggests there will be a rebound - if not before this fall, then certainly during the fall.  We don't have the testing and tracing capability in place to be opening at the rate we are.  Without that, it cannot be controlled. The virus could give a s*** about our politics.

And when the rebound occurs, Trump will own it.

The science isn’t exact. Keeping people holed up only prolongs future infections beyond a real vaccine. 

We’re setting ourselves up for failure. 

[homersapien 11,352]

7 hours ago, autigeremt said:

The science isn’t exact. Keeping people holed up only prolongs future infections beyond a real vaccine. 

We’re setting ourselves up for failure. 

I am not advocating for "keeping people holed up".

I am advocating for a effective control measures involving testing and contact tracing as we open up. Such a policy needs to be organized and managed from the Federal level. 

Without adequate control measures we are indeed "setting ourselves up for failure" by opening up without them.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/

 

 

[AUwent 3,747]

 

Meanwhile Bezos making billions more during this crisis. Funny how we've been told time and time again that even the slightest redistribution of wealth will turn us into Venezuela. Welp gents, we're already there.

[AUwent 3,747]

Seriously, if you aren't angry, GET angry, people.

 

[bigbird 60,368]

I believe those that are suffering with the job losses and economic implosion aren't necessarily blaming Trump in the same manner that previous Presidents have been. The cause (Covid-19) isn't self-inflicted like other high unemployment/economic disasters have been. While people will always seek someone or something to blame, I don't think most are blaming the government or politicians for it. I could be wrong...I could be right.

[ToraGirl 5,498]

12 hours ago, bigbird said:

I believe those that are suffering with the job losses and economic implosion aren't necessarily blaming Trump in the same manner that previous Presidents have been. The cause (Covid-19) isn't self-inflicted like other high unemployment/economic disasters have been. While people will always seek someone or something to blame, I don't think most are blaming the government or politicians for it. I could be wrong...I could be right.

50/50, and I completely agree with you.

[AUwent 3,747]

The system was a house of cards prior to covid.

[AUwent 3,747]

Can't think of a better place to put this. A good rebuttal to industry talking points.

https://health.usnews.com/health-care/for-better/articles/the-case-for-universal-health-care

Also, a perfect encapsulation of how I feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eurl9d9hy3U

 

[AUwent 3,747]

I used to live with someone who always ranted about how homeless people were lazy and grifters. I hope COVID can be the end of that mentality.

[homersapien 11,352]

On 5/22/2020 at 2:21 AM, bigbird said:

I believe those that are suffering with the job losses and economic implosion aren't necessarily blaming Trump in the same manner that previous Presidents have been. The cause (Covid-19) isn't self-inflicted like other high unemployment/economic disasters have been. While people will always seek someone or something to blame, I don't think most are blaming the government or politicians for it. I could be wrong...I could be right.

It's far from over and Trump hasn't exactly distinguished himself in the way he handled it.

 

"..........With everything else going on, including the collapse of the economy and the wave of protests over police brutality and racism, the covid-19 pandemic is getting less attention. So it’s worth stressing just how appalling this is: The United States has no national coronavirus testing strategy.

A month and a half ago, the White House issued a “guidance” to states that amounted to “you guys should maybe do some testing, but it’s not the federal government’s responsibility.” And that’s still where we are."

Meanwhile, nearly half the states are showing rising rates of infection and hospitalizations, with particularly sharp increases in Arizona, Texas and Florida. According to the latest projections, we could reach 170,000 to 200,000 deaths by the beginning of October........"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/12/trump-administration-has-all-given-up-fighting-pandemic/

[wdefromtx 3,159]

11 minutes ago, homersapien said:

It's far from over and Trump hasn't exactly distinguished himself in the way he handled it.

 

"With everything else going on, including the collapse of the economy and the wave of protests over police brutality and racism, the covid-19 pandemic is getting less attention. So it’s worth stressing just how appalling this is: The United States has no national coronavirus testing strategy.

A month and a half ago, the White House issued a “guidance” to states that amounted to “you guys should maybe do some testing, but it’s not the federal government’s responsibility.” And that’s still where we are."

Meanwhile, nearly half the states are showing rising rates of infection and hospitalizations, with particularly sharp increases in Arizona, Texas and Florida. According to the latest projections, we could reach 170,000 to 200,000 deaths by the beginning of October.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/12/trump-administration-has-all-given-up-fighting-pandemic/

I wouldn't exactly call the rate change in Texas a sharp increase. 

[bigbird 60,368]

36 minutes ago, homersapien said:

It's far from over and Trump hasn't exactly distinguished himself in the way he handled it.

 

"With everything else going on, including the collapse of the economy and the wave of protests over police brutality and racism, the covid-19 pandemic is getting less attention. So it’s worth stressing just how appalling this is: The United States has no national coronavirus testing strategy.

A month and a half ago, the White House issued a “guidance” to states that amounted to “you guys should maybe do some testing, but it’s not the federal government’s responsibility.” And that’s still where we are."

Meanwhile, nearly half the states are showing rising rates of infection and hospitalizations, with particularly sharp increases in Arizona, Texas and Florida. According to the latest projections, we could reach 170,000 to 200,000 deaths by the beginning of October.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/12/trump-administration-has-all-given-up-fighting-pandemic/

Fair criticisms. That does bring up a big difference between the two sides though. For the most part, Rs prefer less government intervention and prefer a stronger state influence while Ds tend to prefer the government to have more control and influence. Like most things, I tend to think there is merit in aspects of both depending on the issue.  As far as a national plan of action for testing and moving forward goes, I believe that this is one of the times where we needed our government and leaders to step up and provide a focused, multifaceted blueprint for the states to implement. IMO, we should've been a little more aggressive in the beginning. The problem with that is, many of the steps necessary to get a grip on it early would've been met with a lot of resistance.

Even if that had occured, I'm not entirely sure that there would be a dramatic shift in the outcome with regards to the spread. From here, people were either going to take precautions or they weren't. Maybe the increased testing would've encouraged more to be cautious but I don't know.

[savorytiger 182]

3 hours ago, bigbird said:

Fair criticisms. That does bring up a big difference between the two sides though. For the most part, Rs prefer less government intervention and prefer a stronger state influence while Ds tend to prefer the government to have more control and influence. Like most things, I tend to think there is merit in aspects of both depending on the issue.  As far as a national plan of action for testing and moving forward goes, I believe that this is one of the times where we needed our government and leaders to step up and provide a focused, multifaceted blueprint for the states to implement. IMO, we should've been a little more aggressive in the beginning. The problem with that is, many of the steps necessary to get a grip on it early would've been met with a lot of resistance.

Even if that had occured, I'm not entirely sure that there would be a dramatic shift in the outcome with regards to the spread. From here, people were either going to take precautions or they weren't. Maybe the increased testing would've encouraged more to be cautious but I don't know.

You can't blame the other side for your own inaction by saying there would have been resistance. You can only control what you do, not what others may do. Personal responsibility and all that. Also, polically, you have so much to gain by just putting out a good plan. 

As for the outcome of the spread, we're starting to see a big difference in how countries who handled the crisis well are faring compared to others. Italy was hit extremely hard early on but is embarassingly ahead of the US in terms of recovery (look at the graphs for Italy vs. US), and I'm not sure you can argue that Italy handled it well. It's only going to get harder to argue that the most advanced nation in the world couldn't find a better way to deal with the virus.

[bigbird 60,368]

17 minutes ago, savorytiger said:

You can't blame the other side for your own inaction by saying there would have been resistance. You can only control what you do, not what others may do. Personal responsibility and all that. Also, polically, you have so much to gain by just putting out a good plan. 

As for the outcome of the spread, we're starting to see a big difference in how countries who handled the crisis well are faring compared to others. Italy was hit extremely hard early on but is embarassingly ahead of the US in terms of recovery (look at the graphs for Italy vs. US), and I'm not sure you can argue that Italy handled it well. It's only going to get harder to argue that the most advanced nation in the world couldn't find a better way to deal with the virus.

Who's trying to blame any side?

[Auburn85 432]

I'll come back and get crow if I'm wrong , but Trump will lose.

 

Biden is not Clinton.

 

I'd say Michigan is a good test.

 

In 2016, Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the Michigan primary. Trump defeated Clinton in Michigan in the general election. 

 

While the primary was still competitive before the pandemic took over, Biden soundly defeated Sanders in Michigan. 

[AUwent 3,747]

41 minutes ago, Auburn85 said:

I'll come back and get crow if I'm wrong , but Trump will lose.

 

Biden is not Clinton.

 

I'd say Michigan is a good test.

 

In 2016, Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the Michigan primary. Trump defeated Clinton in Michigan in the general election. 

 

While the primary was still competitive before the pandemic took over, Biden soundly defeated Sanders in Michigan. 

Yeah, Biden has a much more likable persona than Clinton (along with Buttigieg, Klobuchar et al.). If anything, his gaffes make people like him more. I think Sanders could've beaten any of the others head to head.