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bigbird

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I am new to AUFamily and have tried (Unsuccessfully) to pose a question about possible results if Trump wins again.  Specifically, does a loss force the Dems to rethink their positions and is there a chance moderate Dems emerge or is that party too ensconced in their ideology?

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1 minute ago, aggie65 said:

I am new to AUFamily and have tried (Unsuccessfully) to pose a question about possible results if Trump wins again.  Specifically, does a loss force the Dems to rethink their positions and is there a chance moderate Dems emerge or is that party too ensconced in their ideology?

I would hope so, but after 2016 the Dem party has doubled down and tried to move further left. I believe a split ticket of moderates would win in a landslide against either established party

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1 hour ago, aggie65 said:

I am new to AUFamily and have tried (Unsuccessfully) to pose a question about possible results if Trump wins again.  Specifically, does a loss force the Dems to rethink their positions and is there a chance moderate Dems emerge or is that party too ensconced in their ideology?

It'll be a little bit before you can post threads. Just keep replying and you'll get the privilege. 

As for moderate Dems,  Joe's victory in the primary was actually a show of just how strong the moderate wing of the party still is. Bernie represents a challenge from the leftist wing of the party.

As far as polling is concerned, taken in the aggregate, I'd be pretty comfortable were I Biden right now. 

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On 5/17/2020 at 9:29 AM, bigbird said:

Yet Dems still want to hang their hat on meaningless nationwide polls heavily influenced by the liberal states of New York and California. Good luck with that. The election will be decided by the 15 or so battleground states.

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5 hours ago, IronMan70 said:

Yet Dems still want to hang their hat on meaningless nationwide polls heavily influenced by the liberal states of New York and California. Good luck with that. The election will be decided by the 15 or so battleground states.

Well that's just not true, and for those that still didn't learn the lesson from 2016, well there's not much hope.

Ultimately the polls did OK in 16, as accurate as they've ever been, better in 18.

There are correlations between the national vote and the Electoral College, and if Biden wins by 3+ points, he's OK. He sits at about 4 in polling now. 

Regarding polling:

http://election.princeton.edu/2020/05/16/2020-is-shaping-up-to-be-another-close-one/

Quote

Despite Trump’s low approval numbers, April/May polls indicate a closer race than Obama 2008 or Obama 2012. This is yet again another knife-edge Presidential race, same as it’s generally been since 2000. We live in an era of close elections, and 2020 is not yet an exception.

A four-point swing – or 2% of voters changing their minds – would make Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida more likely to go to Trump, and bring the mode outcome to basically a perfect toss-up. In the terminology of this site, the current Presidential Meta-Margin is Biden +4%.

A six-point swing (3% of voters changing their minds) would bring the mode outcome to Trump 294, Biden 244.

Presidential poll medians, state by state:
AZ: Biden +9%
PA: Biden +6%
FL: Biden +4%
MI: Biden +4%
WI: Biden +3%
NC: Trump +1%
OH: Trump +3%

4 points would be a pretty typical polling error. You'd rather be Biden,  but anyone treating this like the Democrats are going to romp right now is wrong. It's close. 

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5 hours ago, IronMan70 said:

Yet Dems still want to hang their hat on meaningless nationwide polls heavily influenced by the liberal states of New York and California. Good luck with that. The election will be decided by the 15 or so battleground states.

Yeah, you should look closer at this poll.  It includes some states that I don't think any of us would consider battlegrounds.  The actual CNN poll defined battleground states as those being within 8 points in 2016.  8 points is a big win in a lot of states.  It's also worth noting that you are falling into the same trap that you accuse Dems of here.  This is an aggregate poll of those states, not a state-by-state poll.  So if one state goes heavily for Trump, then it skews the entire poll (much like California and NY would for the popular vote in a national poll towards Dems).

In state-by-state polls among key swing states, Biden is doing quite well.  He's leading in Arizona, Florida, and Virginia in new statewide polls out today.  Worth noting that Trump won Arizona and Florida in 2016.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/19/polls-biden-leads-trump-arizona-florida-virginia/5221514002/

And if you look at the most recent stuff on the always great 538, Biden is up in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and in a virtual tie in Georgia (Biden actually has a one point lead there).  Again, all states Trump won in 2016.  Go here and filter by state.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

 

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9 hours ago, IronMan70 said:

Yet Dems still want to hang their hat on meaningless nationwide polls heavily influenced by the liberal states of New York and California. Good luck with that. The election will be decided by the 15 or so battleground states.

 

6 hours ago, AUDub said:

Well that's just not true, and for those that still didn't learn the lesson from 2016, well there's not much hope.

Actually it is true so I would wonder if you learned the lesson. Anyway, nationwide polls are obviously skewed by large Democrat populations in the 2 states I mentioned. In a national poll (or election) if you run up the Dem tally from those 2 states it has minimal relevance. Why ? We do not decide the Presidential election based on one national vote total. That was the point I was making there. 

We are a republic and the winner of the presidential election is determined by 50 individual state elections, not one national election. That is why data for each state separately, most especially the battleground states, contains the relevant data and is the key. Now, one might argue the polling in battleground states at any given point in time. That's fair and at least that has some bearing. However, even then you have to dig down into the sampling used in the poll to determine validity.

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47 minutes ago, IronMan70 said:

Actually it is true so I would wonder if you learned the lesson.

I was referring to the "hang their hat" portion. Most learned their lesson the hard way in 2016. 

That doesn't mean they're not an indicator,  simply that we have to be more discerning with our prognostications. 

Let's delve further. 

Quote

Anyway, nationwide polls are obviously skewed by large Democrat populations in the 2 states I mentioned. In a national poll (or election) if you run up the Dem tally from those 2 states it has minimal relevance. Why ? We do not decide the Presidential election based on one national vote total. That was the point I was making there. 

We are a republic and the winner of the presidential election is determined by 50 individual state elections, not one national election. That is why data for each state separately, most especially the battleground states, contains the relevant data and is the key. Now, one might argue the polling in battleground states at any given point in time. That's fair and at least that has some bearing. However, even then you have to dig down into the sampling used in the poll to determine validity.

Obviously national results are not the determining factor for president, but that does not mean they aren't an indicator. In fact, there is a discernible correlation. Republicans have an advantage baked in because of the EC, but past results give us effective markers for what would be needed to win. A tie in the popular vote is effectively a comfortable Republican EC win. 1-2 points in favor of the Democrat effectively signals a toss-up. At 2-3 points the Republican has a 1 in 3 chance of victory (Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1). 3+ effectively favors the Democrat. 

Again, at 4+, where we are now, I'd be very comfortable if I were Biden,  but that's still withing the bounds of a normal polling error, much like 2016, so Trump is still very much in the running 

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12 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Again, at 4+, where we are now, I'd be very comfortable if I were Biden,  but that's still withing the bounds of a normal polling error, much like 2016, so Trump is still very much in the running 

The kicker, of course,  is that a polling error could just as easily favor Biden, resulting in a blowout.

But it's still early and there will be a lot of sound and fury. 

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13 hours ago, wdefromtx said:

So basically a quarter of each party hates their candidate!!! 

 

Fun times everyone!! 

Should be more than that. The choices once again is horrible. 

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Take it for what it is and remember we're still 6 months out. 

 

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11 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Take it for what it is and remember we're still 6 months out. 

Yep, 6 months is an eternity in politics. I'm generally not a fan of polls, even less so this far out. The 2 campaigns haven't fully engaged yet and now the polls are all over the place. They're a little more interesting the last few days before the election when the samplings become more representative. I looked at your other 2 poll links and separated out the "likely voter" polls. I haven't done a deep dive yet on the samplings.

 

Here is another one to add to the list, dated today. https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/20/trump-biden-lead-independents-battleground-states-cnbc-poll-survey-2020-election/

Trump Holds Strong Lead Over Biden Among Independents In Battleground States, New Poll Shows

A new CNBC poll shows President Donald Trump holding a slight lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in certain battleground states. In the same poll, Trump leads Biden among Independents by 9 percent and on the issue of the economy by 11 percent.

The CNBC/Change Research poll had 5,408 total respondents from Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The results showed Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent in the battleground states, with a margin of error just under two percent.

Respondents expressed strong feelings about both candidates. Trump’s very favorable to very unfavorable comparison was 39 percent to 47 percent and Biden’s was 22 percent to 48 percent. 

In terms of the handing of the coronavirus, 49 percent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat approve of Trump, while 51 percent strongly or somewhat disapprove. 

“New @CNBC poll tracks our own data,” Tim Murtaugh, the director of communications for the Trump reelection campaign tweeted. “These states were included in our massive ad & marketing blitz.”

 

New @CNBC poll tracks our own data.@realDonaldTrump leads in battleground states.

5,408 likely voters in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI.

Trump is +11 over Biden on handling the economy.

Trump is +9 among independents.

 

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3 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I'm waiting for 538's model to drop. 

I'm waiting for Helmut Norpoth to update his. He had trump at 90-95% chance to win going into the pandemic, depending on whether Sanders or Biden won the Dem nom. He hasn't updated it since. I believe he's 7 for 8, to include picking trump to win in 2016 before he'd won the GOP nom. 

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19 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I'm waiting for Helmut Norpoth to update his. He had trump at 90-95% chance to win going into the pandemic, depending on whether Sanders or Biden won the Dem nom. He hasn't updated it since. I believe he's 7 for 8, to include picking trump to win in 2016 before he'd won the GOP nom. 

I looked. His EC numbers are a bit harebrained. 

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1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

I don't even know what EC numbers are, haha.

The Electoral College 

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33 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I'm waiting for Helmut Norpoth to update his. He had trump at 90-95% chance to win going into the pandemic, depending on whether Sanders or Biden won the Dem nom. He hasn't updated it since. I believe he's 7 for 8, to include picking trump to win in 2016 before he'd won the GOP nom. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/496078-will-economic-recession-cost-president-trump-the-election

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8 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Saw that. Seems like a perfectly executed hedging of bets- he even managed to comment on Trump's trumpiness without calling it a good thing or a bad thing- but there is some good background info.

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