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news.yahoo.com
 

Georgia's coronavirus data made reopening look safe. The numbers were a lie

Matthew Fleischer

Brian Kemp, then a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, attends a rally in Athens in 2018. <span class="copyright">(John Bazemore / Associated Press)</span>

Brian Kemp, then a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, attends a rally in Athens in 2018. (John Bazemore / Associated Press)

Nothing about the spread of the coronavirus or the nature of the disease suggests that it’s safe to get back to business as usual. And yet “reopen” is the word on almost every American’s lips, despite apocalyptic warnings from public heath experts suggesting that, without an aggressive national public health strategy, the country could face its “darkest winter.”

In the absence of a coherent federal public health response, millions of Americans are trying to will the coronavirus away through the sheer force of their God-given exceptionalism.

Mass delusion seems a dubious strategy for ending the coronavirus crisis. And yet if you look at the data coming out of Georgia over the past month — which had one of the earliest and most aggressive efforts to reopen its economy — you might be convinced that there is little danger in a broad economic reopening.

According to state data models, which Gov. Brian Kemp used to justify Georgia’s aggressive reopening, the state’s infection curve has been rapidly heading in a direction that would be the envy of states like California, with its aggressive lockdown rules. The Wall Street Journal hailed the “Georgia Model” as evidence that aggressive lockdowns were needlessly harming the economy.

Georgia's miraculous curve seemingly played an important role in the changing public sentiment around reopening nationally. If it's working in Georgia, why can't it work here?

Georgia’s flattening curve defied all scientific logic. Pandemics don’t end because the economy is suffering and we want them to.

And yet data don't lie. Or do they?

Thanks to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, we now know things did indeed look too good to be true. Georgia’s coronavirus numbers looked so rosy because officials misrepresented the data in such a way it's difficult to believe it wasn't done on purpose.

"I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate," microbiology and molecular genetics PhD and state Rep. Jasmine Clark told the Journal Constitution. "Literally nowhere ever in any type of statistics would that be acceptable."

Georgia isn’t the only state itching to reopen that has a penchant for dubious data. Florida actively tried suppressing county coroners from releasing COVID-19 death tallies.

Time will tell if Georgians will pay the price for the irresponsibility and incompetence of their leaders, or if they’ll catch a break. Hot, humid summer weather could send coronavirus into a remission unearned by responsible public health strategies.

One thing, however, is certain: Wishful thinking isn’t going to end this pandemic. If the numbers look too good to be true, they probably are.

Stay home if you can, wear a mask, and don’t let politically motivated talk of reopening lull you into a false sense of security.

i keep telling ya'll. texas just had the biggest one day spike since this started. this is not a hoax. this is people trying to warn you and help keep you safe.

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Here’s an example of a covid related death:  Husband and wife have been in isolation for 6 weeks, husband asks her if she’s gained weight. She kills him....hospital reports it as Covid-19 caused

You’re spreading misinformation. The CDC didn’t estimate 2.2M deaths. A British report gave that number if nothing was done to stop the spread. Trump used that high number to claim success. https

Man, you learn a lot about your insurer when it's time to file a claim. Especially when you talk to somebody else who went through it with a different insurer. They are not all created equal. 

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abcnews.go.com
 

Texas COVID-19 cases rise, governor's office says more testing being done

ABC News

ABC News Corona Virus Government. Response

 

The deaths are also steadily increasing.

 

Texas has seen a steady rise in novel coronavirus cases and fatalities since reopening just over two weeks ago.

There are now 45,198 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. That is an increase of 1,347 cases from Thursday to Friday. The new numbers have not yet been recorded for Saturday.

Last Friday, the daily case increase was 1,219.

While the cases are still well below New York, the state with the most confirmed cases at more than 345,000, the steady increase shows that the curve has not yet flattened in Texas.

The state also experienced its highest and second-highest daily death toll just a day apart. On Thursday, 58 deaths were recorded in 24 hours and Friday that number dropped only slightly to 56, according to the health department. The total number of fatalities is at 1,272.

Last Friday, the daily death toll was 31.

Hospitalizations rates have appeared to flatten, but that data is reported on a two-week lag. Currently there are 1,716 people in a Texas hospital, according to the health department.

Gov. Greg Abbott's communications director John Wittman told ABC News that the amount of testing has doubled since reopening, contributing to the rise in cases.

"Since [COVID-19 testing] started, we did 330,000 tests in March and April. Since May 1, we have done over 330,000 -- so in 16 days we have doubled our testing from the previous entire two months," Wittman said.

"The governor has been clear that as the state of Texas conducts more tests, we will see the raw number of cases rise," Wittman said. "However, the [rolling seven-day] average positivity rate has steadily declined from our high April 13 [of a bit more than 13%] to around 5% today. Our hospitalizations remain steady, and Texas has one of the lowest death rates per capita in the nation."

Texas began reopening after its stay-at-home order was lifted on April 30.

Restaurants are open for in-person dining at 25% capacity. Movie theaters and malls are also open at 25% capacity.

Retail stores, libraries and museums are fully open. Come Monday, gyms will reopen too.

The two most populous counties -- Harris and Dallas -- have recorded the most cases. There are 8,817 confirmed cases in Harris County and 6,837 confirmed cases in Dallas County.

The state has tested nearly 646,000 people out of a population of 29 million. Cases are most likely higher because of how few people have been tested.

ABC News' Ali Dukakis contributed to this report.

Editor's note: ABC News has updated this story to include comments from Gov. Greg Abbott's communications director.


ABC News


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1 hour ago, aubiefifty said:
news.yahoo.com
 

Georgia's coronavirus data made reopening look safe. The numbers were a lie

Matthew Fleischer

Brian Kemp, then a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, attends a rally in Athens in 2018. <span class="copyright">(John Bazemore / Associated Press)</span>

Brian Kemp, then a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, attends a rally in Athens in 2018. (John Bazemore / Associated Press)

Nothing about the spread of the coronavirus or the nature of the disease suggests that it’s safe to get back to business as usual. And yet “reopen” is the word on almost every American’s lips, despite apocalyptic warnings from public heath experts suggesting that, without an aggressive national public health strategy, the country could face its “darkest winter.”

In the absence of a coherent federal public health response, millions of Americans are trying to will the coronavirus away through the sheer force of their God-given exceptionalism.

Mass delusion seems a dubious strategy for ending the coronavirus crisis. And yet if you look at the data coming out of Georgia over the past month — which had one of the earliest and most aggressive efforts to reopen its economy — you might be convinced that there is little danger in a broad economic reopening.

According to state data models, which Gov. Brian Kemp used to justify Georgia’s aggressive reopening, the state’s infection curve has been rapidly heading in a direction that would be the envy of states like California, with its aggressive lockdown rules. The Wall Street Journal hailed the “Georgia Model” as evidence that aggressive lockdowns were needlessly harming the economy.

Georgia's miraculous curve seemingly played an important role in the changing public sentiment around reopening nationally. If it's working in Georgia, why can't it work here?

Georgia’s flattening curve defied all scientific logic. Pandemics don’t end because the economy is suffering and we want them to.

And yet data don't lie. Or do they?

Thanks to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, we now know things did indeed look too good to be true. Georgia’s coronavirus numbers looked so rosy because officials misrepresented the data in such a way it's difficult to believe it wasn't done on purpose.

"I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate," microbiology and molecular genetics PhD and state Rep. Jasmine Clark told the Journal Constitution. "Literally nowhere ever in any type of statistics would that be acceptable."

Georgia isn’t the only state itching to reopen that has a penchant for dubious data. Florida actively tried suppressing county coroners from releasing COVID-19 death tallies.

Time will tell if Georgians will pay the price for the irresponsibility and incompetence of their leaders, or if they’ll catch a break. Hot, humid summer weather could send coronavirus into a remission unearned by responsible public health strategies.

One thing, however, is certain: Wishful thinking isn’t going to end this pandemic. If the numbers look too good to be true, they probably are.

Stay home if you can, wear a mask, and don’t let politically motivated talk of reopening lull you into a false sense of security.

i keep telling ya'll. texas just had the biggest one day spike since this started. this is not a hoax. this is people trying to warn you and help keep you safe.

Hospitalizations in Georgia are down  since the re-opening as are deaths per day due to Covid-19. Same thing in FL by the way. You would expect cases to rise as testing increases. Also, Covid-19 deaths are over reported overall in the US. For example, if someone dies in a car accident and also tests positive for Covid-19; they are counted as a Covid-19 death. No other disease has ever been reported like this. Why do you think this is? 

Edited by SocialCircle
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5 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Hospitalizations in Georgia are down in Georgia since the reason-opening as are deaths per day due to Covid-19. Same thing in FL by the way. You would expect cases to rise as testing increases. Also, Covid-19 deaths are over reported overall in the US. For example, if someone dies in a car accident and also tests positive for Covid-19; they are counted as a Covid-19 death. No other disease has ever been reported like this. Why do you think this is? 

This guy died after an accident from Covid— how would you count it?

https://www.wfmz.com/health/coronavirus/coroner-man-hospitalized-after-crash-dies-of-covid-19/article_768425fc-77fc-11ea-9c71-bf0a00d2beb8.html

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26 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

I would count this specific one as Covid-19 based on the info in the article. He didn’t die in the car crash and then test positive for Covid-19. He survived the car crash.

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32 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I would count this specific one as Covid-19 based on the info in the article. He didn’t die in the car crash and then test positive for Covid-19. He survived the car crash.

Can you provide a link that indicates anyone with a positive diagnosis is counted as being the cause regardless of the facts? My understanding is that while one’s underlying condition may make one more susceptible to dying from Covid, e.g. heart disease, diabetes, copd — if Covid tips the scale, it’s classified as the reason.

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11 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Can you provide a link that indicates anyone with a positive diagnosis is counted as being the cause regardless of the facts? My understanding is that while one’s underlying condition may make one more susceptible to dying from Covid, e.g. heart disease, diabetes, copd — if Covid tips the scale, it’s classified as the reason.

I’d like to see that link as well. I’m hearing a bunch of fluff about it but nobody has any evidence of it actually happening, that I have seen. I suspect it is similar to fraudulent voting. You are going to find a dozen or so instances and use it to try make the number of 90,000 seem suspect. Those who are frantically searching for something have already decided which way to go. 

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Just to be clear, as testing increases so will the total number of cases. Many of the new positive cases are asymptomatic. Also many are showing positive AB, indicating that they were exposed previously.

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23 minutes ago, alexava said:

I’d like to see that link as well. I’m hearing a bunch of fluff about it but nobody has any evidence of it actually happening, that I have seen. I suspect it is similar to fraudulent voting. You are going to find a dozen or so instances and use it to try make the number of 90,000 seem suspect. Those who are frantically searching for something have already decided which way to go. 

With a disease, it’s reasonable to assume it tipped the scale when it’s either unknowable with certainty or the cost and time taken to make a more informed assessment is prohibitive, so I can see the shorthand being mark it as Covid. In most cases that may be the most logical response.

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This article is from April 24th and retracts 200 deaths formally attributed to Corvid-19.

Officials from the state Department of Health provided several justifications for the fluctuations, citing technical issues, lengthy investigations, and the addition of “probable” deaths — those considered to be caused by the coronavirus but without confirmation from a test.

But facing mounting questions about the accuracy of the count, officials on Thursday removed more than 200 probable deaths from the tally, further complicating the state’s accounting of the pandemic. Health Secretary Rachel Levine said the change was made in an effort to be transparent.

“We realize that this category can be confusing, since it does change over time,” Levine said.

“At times, there are things we need to review, and potentially revisit the way the data is being analyzed,” she said. “And this is one of those times.”

https://papost.org/2020/04/24/pa-removes-more-than-200-deaths-from-official-coronavirus-count-as-questions-mount-about-reporting-process-data-accuracy/

The cause of death is still a moving target.  The correction may take a long time. 

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1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

Can you provide a link that indicates anyone with a positive diagnosis is counted as being the cause regardless of the facts? My understanding is that while one’s underlying condition may make one more susceptible to dying from Covid, e.g. heart disease, diabetes, copd — if Covid tips the scale, it’s classified as the reason.

Go look at the CDC website for one example.  If a definitive diagnosis cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it (Covid-19) can be reported as possible or presumed. 

Guess what....those count in the reported total number of Covid-19 deaths. 

 

Here is a doctor in the state of Alabama: 

  

 

Edited by SocialCircle
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3 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Go look at the CDC website for one example.  If a definitive diagnosis cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it (Covid-19) can be reported as possible or presumed. 

Guess what....those count in the reported total number of Covid-19 deaths. 

  

Any mention of car crashes?

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20 minutes ago, alexava said:

Any mention of car crashes?

The doctor in the video I posted above said it.  Watch this video.  She says the US counts Covid-19 deaths liberally.  She adds at the 0:58 through 1:02 mark of the video that if someone dies with Covid-19 we are counting that as a Covid-19 death. 

 

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1 hour ago, alexava said:

I suspect it is similar to fraudulent voting. You are going to find a dozen or so instances and use it to try make the number of 90,000 seem suspect.

This is exactly right. There is a profit motive and it is changing some numbers. It does not change reality. Being off on your grain of sand count isn't going to downgrade the Sahara from a desert to a dune. 

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38 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Go look at the CDC website for one example.  If a definitive diagnosis cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it (Covid-19) can be reported as possible or presumed. 

Guess what....those count in the reported total number of Covid-19 deaths. 

 

Here is a doctor in the state of Alabama: 

  

 

Suspected or likely? What’s your problem with that? Given the lack of testing, the more accurate measure is the deviation from the normal death rate for a period in time.

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FYI at CDC.com and pertinent to the current thread discussion.

 

Among 3,734 hospitalized adults with information on underlying medical conditions, 91.7% had at least one reported underlying medical condition, the most commonly reported were hypertension, obesity, chronic metabolic disease, and cardiovascular disease.

 

Additional hospitalization surveillance information: Surveillance Methods  | Additional rate data  |  Additional demographic and clinical data

 
 

Mortality Surveillance

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collects death certificate data from vital statistics offices for all deaths occurring in the United States. Based on death certificate data available on May 14, 2020, 12.8% of all deaths occurring during the week ending May 9, 2020 (week 19) were due to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC). This is the third  week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC; however, the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold of 6.6% for week 19. Data for recent weeks are incomplete, and the PIC percentage may increase as more death certificates representing deaths during these weeks are filed.

Weekly mortality surveillance data include a combination of machine coded and manually coded causes of death collected from death certificates.  Percentages of deaths due to PIC are higher among manually coded records than more rapidly available machine coded records. Due to the additional time needed for manual coding, the initially reported PIC percentages may be lower than percentages calculated from final data. Given the amount of manually coded data available for deaths occurring during week 19, it is possible that when additional death certificates are processed, the week 19 PIC percentage may be greater than what was reported for week 18.

Edited by IronMan70
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and.....

4. Mortality Surveillance

 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data – NCHS collects death certificate data from state vital statistics offices for all deaths occurring in the United States. The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to NCHS, processed, coded, and tabulated. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

For COVIDView, the percentage of total deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia, influenza and/or COVID-19 (PIC) listed as a cause of death is calculated. PIC deaths are identified based on ICD-10 multiple cause of death codes J09-J18.9 or U07.1. PIC is being monitored in order to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19 related mortality than would monitoring COVID-19 alone. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be classified as pneumonia deaths or influenza deaths (deaths due to “flu” or “flu-like illness”) in the absence of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results. The combined PIC categorization also prevents double counting of deaths with more than one PIC cause listed on the death certificate.  NCHS surveillance data are aggregated by the week of death occurrence.  The PIC percentage for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.

The PIC percentage is compared to a seasonal baseline of P&I deaths that is calculated using a periodic regression model incorporating a robust regression procedure applied to data from the previous five years.  An increase of 1.645 standard deviations above the seasonal baseline of P&I deaths is considered the “epidemic threshold,” i.e., the point at which the observed proportion of deaths is significantly higher than would be expected at that time of the year in the absence of substantial influenza, and now COVID-related mortality.

Additional provisional death counts from NCHS are also available on NCHS’ National Vital Statistics System.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/purpose-methods.html#hospitalization

 

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and......

Testing Data in the U.S.

Updated May 18, 2020

Total tests

TOTAL TESTS REPORTED-  11,282,781

POSITIVE TESTS REPORTED-  1,593,969

% OF POSITIVE TESTS-  14%

Tests for COVID-19

  • Viral tests tell you if you currently have an infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. A positive test result means you have an infection.
  • Antibody blood tests, also called antibody tests, check your blood by looking for antibodies, which show if you had a previous infection with the virus.

About the Data

  • These data are compiled from a number of sources. Not all tests are reported to CDC.
  • The number of positive tests in a state is not equal to the number of cases, as one person may be tested more than once.
 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

 

 

 

Positive Tests

 

 

 

 
Percent Positive
 
 
Edited by IronMan70
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3 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

Suspected or likely? What’s your problem with that? Given the lack of testing, the more accurate measure is the deviation from the normal death rate for a period in time.

My problem is doctors I know are telling me many are being counted as COVID-19 that shouldn’t be and the doctor from AL on the video says it and the woman in the video I posted says we are counting COVID-19 deaths liberally and says if someone has COVID-19 when they die they are being counted as a COVID-19 death (which would clearly include the example I provided involving someone who dies in a car crash and also happens to test positive for COVID-19). 

Edited by SocialCircle
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43 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

My problem is doctors I know are telling me many are being counted as COVID-19 that shouldn’t be and the doctor from AL on the video says it and the woman in the video I posted says we are counting COVID-19 deaths liberally and says if someone has COVID-19 when they die they are being counted as a COVID-19 death (which would clearly include the example I provided invoking someone who dies in a car crash and also happens to test positive for COVID-19). 

I’d be curious how many folks with Covid are truly dying for a totally unrelated reason? I would think that number would be low.

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Here’s an example of a covid related death: 

Husband and wife have been in isolation for 6 weeks, husband asks her if she’s gained weight. She kills him....hospital reports it as Covid-19 caused death. 

Edited by wdefromtx
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1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

I’d be curious how many folks with Covid are truly dying for a totally unrelated reason? I would think that number would be low.

I don't know and neither do you or anybody else and that is my point.  I would think there might be a decent number of over reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 as my understanding is hospitals get more money that way. 

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3 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

I don't know and neither do you or anybody else and that is my point.  I would think there might be a decent number of over reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 as my understanding is hospitals get more money that way. 

Most experts think it’s underreported — if the average number of deaths for a place and time exceeds the norm, what are the explanatory factors?

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2 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

Most experts think it’s underreported — if the average number of deaths for a place and time exceeds the norm, what are the explanatory factors?

I don’t see how anyone can know for sure, but based on the lady in the video I posted who said Covid-19 deaths are reported liberally and based on the doctors I know; the evidence I am seeing points to them being over reported. Please show me evidence otherwise. I’m open minded about it. 

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So what happens if we all get tested and turns out way more people had it that never showed symptoms or got sick? Then many will say this shutdown was all for naught. 

 

I now know of at least 7-8 people in my close circle that tested positive for the antibodies, yet none ever showed any symptoms. 

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