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State of the race, mid September


TitanTiger

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Politico compares some numbers using the Real Clear Politics polling averages for where the presidential race stands now vs what it looked like this time four years ago.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/18/joe-biden-polls-electoral-college-417880

A couple of things stood out to me:

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Biden is sitting at 49.3 percent in national surveys and has a 6.2 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump. That’s significantly higher than Clinton’s 44.9 percent mark this time four years ago, which was good for only a 1 point lead.

.....

In most of the 13 swing states identified by POLITICO — those rated as toss-ups or just leaning toward one party in our Election Forecast — Biden is not only outperforming Clinton in terms of the margin between him and Trump, his average vote share is also greater than Clinton’s was at this point four years ago.

Biden leads in 10 of the 13 states, according to RealClearPolitics averages, trailing Trump only in Georgia, Iowa and Texas. In Sept. 2016, Clinton also trailed in Arizona, Florida and Ohio.

You can read more details at the link but the short version is that there seems to be a much smaller pool of undecided voters and Biden is nearing or clearing the 50% mark in many of the battleground states, which Hillary was not.  My personal thought on that is just that I think more undecideds back then ended up being willing to give Trump a shot because he was an unknown.  He's not an unknown quantity any more.  We've watched him for four years and people have kind of made up their mind one way or the other about him.

It'll be interesting to see what effect this SCOTUS vacancy and nomination process has on the race, if any.

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  • TitanTiger changed the title to State of the race, mid September




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No matter how you slice this, Biden is in extremely good shape right now. Trump right now must win all of the toss-ups and steal a few where he's trailing, and polling seems much more stable this cycle. 

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A thread, but some really good data.  Worth clicking and reading the whole thing.  Essentially Biden is in a much stronger position than Clinton was four years ago.

 

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I feel like the Trump backlash is going to wreck the GOP this election.  And I hate it because what I'd prefer is to get Trump and his cronies out of the WH, but have the GOP retain the Senate.  Get some grown ups back in charge in the executive branch but have the Senate put some brakes on their worst tendencies.  It sucks to me that it looks like we're going to whipsaw hard in the other direction instead.  But when you elect a colossal and incompetent ass like this and let him run amok, you usually learn that "every action has an equal and opposite reaction" pretty quick.

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i have a friend that is a huge trump guy.huge. he says he and others have been told by the right or gop to take these polls and lie for the dems so it looks like they are doing better than they seem. i should have asked him but we end up fighting politics because he thinks every bad thing said about trump is a lie and we have some kind of trump hate syndrome. i do not believe it has big numbers but just in case is this even remotely possible?

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12 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I feel like the Trump backlash is going to wreck the GOP this election.  And I hate it because what I'd prefer is to get Trump and his cronies out of the WH, but have the GOP retain the Senate.  Get some grown ups back in charge in the executive branch but have the Senate put some brakes on their worst tendencies.  It sucks to me that it looks like we're going to whipsaw hard in the other direction instead.  But when you elect a colossal and incompetent ass like this and let him run amok, you usually learn that "every action has an equal and opposite reaction" pretty quick.

what shocks me is all the supporters who seem to be really intelligent and yet they give him a pass regardless. i will not mention names to avoid a fight.

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3 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i have a friend that is a huge trump guy.huge. he says he and others have been told by the right or gop to take these polls and lie for the dems so it looks like they are doing better than they seem. i should have asked him but we end up fighting politics because he thinks every bad thing said about trump is a lie and we have some kind of trump hate syndrome. i do not believe it has big numbers but just in case is this even remotely possible?

Problem is, there's also online polls that show similar results.  There's no pressure to lie to a person.  And it's certainly not enough people to move the polls 2-3%, which is what Trump needs nationally to make those swing states also tighten up.

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7 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Problem is, there's also online polls that show similar results.  There's no pressure to lie to a person.  And it's certainly not enough people to move the polls 2-3%, which is what Trump needs nationally to make those swing states also tighten up.

i hope so. it hurts to see the destruction trump has done to this country and it hurts worse that there are that many people allowing him to do it. i have gotten to the point where i no longer believe good people are mistaken anymore when it comes to trump. the one tiny beacon of hope i have held on to lately is titan because he is a right leaning guy and yet he stands for what is right because he has principals. i was raised to vote for the best man for the job and not just blind allegiance to some party. i really wish i could understand it. it is like saying "hey i love jesus but i am going to forget his teachings and go with what paul wanted". well paul was not the son of god. bush broke my heart when he sent those kids into a unjust war that killed thousands of innocents and gave birth to isis. trump has stomped it and i have to really hold back too often when dealing with his more rabid followers. sometimes i think i should just walk away from the pol boards as i would probably be happier but that will not happen as long as i hold one small hope that people will wake up and show some morals and decency. i have some but it is very little anymore.

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16 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

It'll be interesting to see what effect this SCOTUS vacancy and nomination process has on the race, if any.

It will be even more interesting to see what effect the debates have, if Biden does indeed show up. From Biden's rare public appearance Saturday, with a CNN guy tossing him softballs: "He (Trump) has allowed 200 million people to die." 2/3 of the population is dead? Who knew?

Then there was the sad, sad thing at the end. After it's over, Biden mumbles a tad, then asks "Can I see my family now? They are somewhere...." He sounded like a nursing home resident in the final stages of life. The guy is not physically capable of handling the job. Harris will be President in three months or less, should Biden somehow get elected.

I also saw some old clips of him arguing about a Supreme Court appointee in 1987. Folks, the guy who was speaking back in '87 doesn't live there any more.

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8 hours ago, Mikey said:

It will be even more interesting to see what effect the debates have, if Biden does indeed show up.

:rolleyes:

 

Quote

From Biden's rare public appearance Saturday, with a CNN guy tossing him softballs: "He (Trump) has allowed 200 million people to die." 2/3 of the population is dead? Who knew?

I mean, it's no "I watched our police and firemen down on 7/11..." or "I met with the president of the Virgin Islands," but it'll do.  I also loved when Trump told reporters that Americans would be getting "one million eight hundred and seventy thousand million tests" for coronavirus. :blink:

Candidates (and presidents) make verbal gaffes.  GW Bush regularly mangled words.  Trump and Biden both have a litany of nonsense sentences and errors.  Big whoop.

 

Quote

Then there was the sad, sad thing at the end. After it's over, Biden mumbles a tad, then asks "Can I see my family now? They are somewhere...." He sounded like a nursing home resident in the final stages of life. The guy is not physically capable of handling the job. Harris will be President in three months or less, should Biden somehow get elected.

I also saw some old clips of him arguing about a Supreme Court appointee in 1987. Folks, the guy who was speaking back in '87 doesn't live there any more.

You guys never learn.

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1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

:rolleyes:

 

I mean, it's no "I watched our police and firemen down on 7/11..." or "I met with the president of the Virgin Islands," but it'll do.  I also loved when Trump told reporters that Americans would be getting "one million eight hundred and seventy thousand million tests" for coronavirus. :blink:

 

You guys never learn.

if i might add something to that titan i believe if trumps enablers would call trump down on some of the really stupid stuff he does and says he would have a better shot at reelection. does that make any sense?

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49 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

if i might add something to that titan i believe if trumps enablers would call trump down on some of the really stupid stuff he does and says he would have a better shot at reelection. does that make any sense?

Probably not. The core of his support is a cult of personality, and he can do no wrong in their eyes. Anyone that tried to police his behavior would be pilloried as a RINO. Romney, for example, when he crossed the aisle for impeachment. 

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2 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

Candidates (and presidents) make verbal gaffes. 

Indeed they do. Trump says outrageous things from time to time. The difference is, Biden doesn't know that he's doing it.

2 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

You guys never learn.

Never learn what? Any casual observer has learned that Joe Biden is a helpless old soul who deserves pity. The Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for putting him through this torment. Biden has earned a spot in a comfortable nursing home. (Not one in New York) A nursing home is where he should be instead of up on a stage asking some 20-something scene manager of it's ok if he goes to see his family.

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2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Indeed they do. Trump says outrageous things from time to time. The difference is, Biden doesn't know that he's doing it.

And Trump knew what he was doing when he said "one million eight hundred and seventy thousand million tests" <_<

I think what's really happening her is that you lie and don't know when you're doing it.

 

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Never learn what? Any casual observer has learned that Joe Biden is a helpless old soul who deserves pity. The Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for putting him through this torment. Biden has earned a spot in a comfortable nursing home. (Not one in New York) A nursing home is where he should be instead of up on a stage asking some 20-something scene manager of it's ok if he goes to see his family.

I think you should probably get your own mental health looked at.

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10 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

And Trump knew what he was doing when he said "one million eight hundred and seventy thousand million tests" <_<

 

Why yes, I'm pretty sure President Trump knew he was exaggerating. Sadly, Joe Biden didn't understand what he was saying.

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10 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Why yes, I'm pretty sure President Trump knew he was exaggerating. Sadly, Joe Biden didn't understand what he was saying.

Of course you believe that.  Just like you believe he knew he said the name of a chain of convenience stores instead of 9/11 or didn't realize that he didn't meet with the President of the Virgin Islands.  

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I love this one from the RNC too:

"Thanks to advances, we have pioneered the fatality rate."

I'm sure he was just playing 4-D chess though and did it on purpose.  

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I find myself going through the same thought process with Mikey that I did with Trump four years ago: Could it be he's actually a genius who has outsmarted us all (admittedly, in my case, not all that difficult) and has been epic-level trolling? Or is he really everything he appears to be?

Think I'll stick with Occam on this one.

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“In June of 1775, the Continental Congress created a unified army out of the revolutionary forces encamped around Boston and New York. Our army manned the air. It rammed the ramparts. It took over the airports. It did everything it had to do."

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

“In June of 1775, the Continental Congress created a unified army out of the revolutionary forces encamped around Boston and New York. Our army manned the air. It rammed the ramparts. It took over the airports. It did everything it had to do."

 

 

 

 

Hey man, that patriot Air Force manned by the Army in 1775 was legit!

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1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Indeed they do. Trump says outrageous things from time to time. The difference is, Biden doesn't know that he's doing it.

 

So Trump says really stupid stuff deliberately and that's supposed to be better than doing it inadvertently???   :laugh:

 

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1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

And Trump knew what he was doing when he said "one million eight hundred and seventy thousand million tests" <_<

 

Of course. Just ask Mikey.

It shows just how smart Trump is - joking about our pandemic response.

He's a stable genius for sure. ;)

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1 hour ago, Leftfield said:

I find myself going through the same thought process with Mikey that I did with Trump four years ago: Could it be he's actually a genius who has outsmarted us all (admittedly, in my case, not all that difficult) and has been epic-level trolling? Or is he really everything he appears to be?

Think I'll stick with Occam on this one.

And Maya Angelou:  "When someone shows you who they are, believe them."  ;)

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