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State of the race, mid September

TitanTiger

By TitanTiger
in Politically Speaking

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,352

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Thought this opinion piece was interesting.  But I don't want to jinx things by getting optimistic.

Here’s why Biden’s lead is big and could get bigger

By Jennifer Rubin

I get it. After 2016, Democratic voters, pollsters and the entire mainstream media are spooked about getting the election “wrong.” They want to assure us over and over again that the polls could be wrong and that the race could be really, really close. Yes, but it could also be that the national polls — just like in 2016 — have the race pegged exactly right.

To refresh your memory, the 2016 national polls were not wrong; the interpretation was. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2 percent; polling averages put her lead at about 3 percent. (Some state polls were certainly off, but more often than not had the races right within the margin of error. Some 78,000 votes in three states going the other way would have given her the presidency.)

We are all well-attuned to the potential for the popular vote to diverge from the electoral college vote. However, as the popular vote lead gets bigger, the potential for a different result in the electoral college drops. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver provides a sliding scale:

The good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is that he is doing extremely well in national polling. His lead has hovered around an average of 7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average and in the RealClearPolitics average.

With the exception of one outlier, every poll released on Wednesday had Biden with a lead of between 6 and 11 points. Taking Quinnipiac’s numbers, we see a now-familiar pattern: Biden has a huge lead with women (20 points) and has closed the gap with men (he is down only 1 point); he has recaptured White women, whom Clinton lost by 9 points (Biden is up 2 points); and has turned Clinton’s small deficit of negative 3 points with White, college-educated voters into a huge lead (24 points) — while improving just a tad with White non-college-educated voters (Clinton was down 27 points; Biden is down 24). Biden has also improved with seniors (now even) and with younger voters (he is up 31 points).

State polls are beginning to reflect a substantial Biden lead. The New York Times and Siena College polls released Thursday show Biden with a narrow lead in Iowa (45-42) and tied in Georgia. Trump should have secured these states, both of which he won easily in 2016, long ago. In Wisconsin, Michigan and even Arizona Biden leads in multiple polls.

Beyond the numbers, several factors should allay Democrats’ habitual anxiety. First, for all the caterwauling from Democrats about the Biden campaign (Not out enough! Not progressive enough!), this is among the best-run and best-financed campaigns I have witnessed. The Biden team deserves credit — if for nothing else, for shutting out the noise of under-informed consultants and disregarding Twitter’s self-appointed experts. It has both harnessed the left and enticed a steady parade of Republicans (Cindy McCain being the latest) to back him.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/24/heres-why-bidens-lead-is-big-could-get-bigger/

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Brad_ATX Founding Father

Brad_ATX 13,654

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Fox News polls of Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania out today.  Biden ahead in all three.  Ohio potentially flipping is not being talked about enough.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-tight-race-in-ohio-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania.amp?__twitter_impression=true

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aubiefifty Founding Father

aubiefifty 16,695

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8 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

A thread.  Good analysis.

 

carville was talking on msnbc and if i got what he was saying he thinks trump will get smoked in the election pretty badly and he seemed pretty convinced. since you are a polls guy what do you think. differing polls confuse me and i do trust your honesty.is he far off? what do you think? thanx

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Brad_ATX Founding Father

Brad_ATX 13,654

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15 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

carville was talking on msnbc and if i got what he was saying he thinks trump will get smoked in the election pretty badly and he seemed pretty convinced. since you are a polls guy what do you think. differing polls confuse me and i do trust your honesty.is he far off? what do you think? thanx

There's a much larger chance that Biden wins the electoral college by a large number than there is of Trump winning right now based on state-by-state polling.

Trump needs A LOT to break his way.  In poker terms, he's essentially drawing for an inside straight while Biden is holding three of a kind.  There's just so few paths to a win for Trump as it stands today.  It's still possible, as 2016 showed, but the odds are squarely in Biden's favor right now.

My personal feeling is that Biden likely gets between 310-340 electoral votes.

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aubiefifty Founding Father

aubiefifty 16,695

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i just saw a sound bite where biden said he is going to beat trump like a drum in the debates. i hope he does because if not it looks bad. but then in the big scheme of things does it matter when the right will never admit it if trump sux tonight? i also hope trump tries to stand behind joe like he did hillary which was pretty alarming to me and something he was not called out on. but if he does i hope joe pops him in his lying mouth. hell i wish hillary had as much as i dislike her.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,469

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The outlier course corrects:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep30

They've had it a one point lead either way the past two weeks while almost everyone else had Biden's lead at around 5-8 points on average.

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AUDub Founding Father

AUDub 11,131

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34 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

The outlier course corrects:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep30

They've had it a one point lead either way the past two weeks while almost everyone else had Biden's lead at around 5-8 points on average.

That's an enormous shift. 

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Brad_ATX Founding Father

Brad_ATX 13,654

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On 9/29/2020 at 9:51 AM, TitanTiger said:

If that suburban trend shows up other places, Trump is in big trouble.

If that suburban trend happens, then Georgia, Ohio, and Texas are very much in play.  And I've been extremely hesitant to say that about Texas and Georgia.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,469

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Frankly, I think Trump needs both of these next two debates far more than Biden.  If something happens to prevent the last two from occurring - especially if Trump comes up with some excuse to ditch - it's game over.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,469

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29 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

http://primarymodel.com/

Interesting.  I believe Trump was a lock to win this election until the pandemic hit.  Now I'm not so sure.  I doubt this model holds up because of the impact of Covid-19.  

But the man says it's "unconditional and final"!!!!!

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aubiefifty Founding Father

aubiefifty 16,695

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On 9/25/2020 at 5:48 PM, SocialCircle said:

The betting public likes Trump to win just they they did in 2016.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20200923-us-presidential-election-2020-odds-80pp-of-money-wagered-is-on-donald-trump-winning

 

want to bet a cool hundred bucks social? we can get titan to hold the money to make sure no one renegs or anything like that.

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aubiefifty Founding Father

aubiefifty 16,695

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like i said earlier trump could kill people and his base would not flinch. he did and they did not.

 

edit...........just repeating what trump said.

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SocialCircle Mentor

SocialCircle 570

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1 minute ago, aubiefifty said:

want to bet a cool hundred bucks social? we can get titan to hold the money to make sure no one renegs or anything like that.

I’m not a betting man. 

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1716AU Mentor

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2 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I think Biden is the likely winner and I thought Hillary would likely win in 2016 too.

Just messing with ya, Mate.  I saw the little wager and your response, and I remember how that was all the evangelical children's kryptonite.

I would not bet on this election to save my life. :)

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,469

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14 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

A lot to unpack here, but the biggest one is that Trump only has a 1 pt lead in South Carolina now.  That's insane.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519225-new-polls-feed-gop-fears-of-biden-rout-over-trump

Of note from the article:  At this time in 2016, Trump only trailed Hillary by 2.7 points in the RCP polling average.

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