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According to the stats... Auburn is middle of the pack at best...


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Stats don't lie....

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Where Auburn ranks statistically in SEC, nationally after Game 5

 

Auburn's offense got on the right track with a strong performance at Ole Miss, as expected. The Rebels had one of the worst defenses not only in the SEC, but the country overall. Still, Auburn did what it was supposed to and had a great day of offensive efficiency, turning in its best red-zone touchdown percentage since the Miss State game last season, and its best third-down conversion percentage since the 2014 season.

Below, we'll touch on a bunch of rankings for the Tigers on offense, defense, special teams, miscellaneous and some advanced metrics and predictive analytics. One hundred and one FBS teams have played a football game this year since the Big Ten joined the party over the weekend, but only 74 have played at least three. We'll place Auburn's national rankings among those 74 teams — since their stats are more averaged out and won't be the result of just one big game  and leave out the 27 that have only played one or two games.

Statistically, here is where Auburn stands in conference and national rankings as it returns home to face LSU on Halloween in the first unranked matchup between the two teams since 1999.

 

OFFENSE

Starting QB rating: 73.1 (6th SEC, 24th nationally out of 74 FBS teams that have played three or more games)

Last week: 70.5 (6th, 20th)

Passing offense: 222.4 YPG (10th, 44th)

Last week: 217.3 YPG (7th, T-48th)

Yards per pass attempt: 6.4 (11th, T-58th)

Last week: 6.1 (T-12th, T-58th)

Rushing offense: 164.4 YPG (6th, 31st)

Last week: 149.5 YPG (7th, 43rd)

Yards per rush: 4.67 (4th, 25th)

Last week: 4.64 (4th, 23rd)

Scoring offense: 24.4 PPG (T-8th, 55th)

Last week: 21.8 PPG (12th, 58th)

Total offense: 385.8 YPG (9th, 49th)

Last week: 366.8 YPG (10th, 53rd)

Yards per play: 5.53 (8th, 46th)

Last week: 5.39 (8th, 48th)

Points per play: 0.338 (9th, 54th)

Last week: 0.309 (10th, 55th)

Third-down conversions: 47.22% (6th, 21st)

Last week: 41.07% (9th, 37th)

Red-zone TD rate: 57.89% (10th, T-54th)

Last week: 46.67% (12th, 62nd)

Explosive plays (20-plus yards): 18 (T-8th, T-54th)

Last week: 15 (T-11th, T-55th)

Sacks allowed per game: 2.4 (10th, T-45th)

Last week: 2.5 (T-7th, T-41st)

Negative plays: 24 (T-7th, T-20th)

Last week: 17 (5th, T-10th)

Fumbles lost: 0 (T-1st, T-1st)

Last week: 0 (T-1st, T-1st)

DEFENSE

Total defense: 400.8 YPG (6th SEC, 38th nationally out 74 FBS teams that have played at least three games)

Last week: 390 YPG (7th, 29th)

Opposing passer rating per-game average: 139.17 (6th, 43rd)

Last week: 146.79 (8th, 49th)

Opposing completion percentage per-game average: 64.2% (9th, 56th)

Last week: 65.0% (10th, T-57th)

Passing yards: 220.4 YPG (2nd, 27th)

Last week: 235.3 YPG (4th, T-31st)

Rushing yards: 180.4 YPG (12th, 49th)

Last week: 154.75 YPG (10th, 36th)

Scoring defense: 25.2 PPG (3rd, 25th)

Last week: 24.5 PPG (T-3rd, T-20th)

Third-down conversions: 57.14% (12th, 71st)

Last week: 55.75% (13th, 65th)

Red-zone TD rate: 66.67% (11th, 48th)

Last week: 66.67% (11th, 45th)

Explosive plays (20-plus yards): 18 (7th, 17th)

Last week: 15 (T-5th, 13th)

Sacks per game: 1.6 (T-11th, 56th)

Last week: 1.75 (T-10th, T-44th)

Negative plays per game: 5.8 (T-4th, T-44th)

Last week: 5.5 (T-6th, T-43rd)

Interceptions: 4 (T-7th, T-40th)

Last week: 2 (T-9th, T-49th)

Forced fumbles per game: 0.2 (14th, T-74th)

Last week: 0.25 (T-14th, T-69th)

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punting average: 40.67 yards (13th SEC, T-40th nationally)

Last week: 40.41 yards (13th SEC, 48th nationally)

Own punt returns: 8.2 yards (5th SEC, 36th)

Last week: 8.5 yards (5th SEC, 33rd)

 

Opposing punt returns: 1.6 yards (3rd, 11th)

Last week: 3.75 yards (T-4th, 17th)

Field goals: 88.9% (4th, 11th)

Last week: 88.9% (6th, 13th)

Own kick returns: 22.4 yards (5th SEC, 22nd)

Last week: 24.09 yards (4th SEC, 16th)

Opposing kick returns: 23.29 yards (9th, 53rd)

Last week: 25.2 yards (9th, 54th)

MISCELLANEOUS

Penalties per game: 6.6 (T-11th SEC, 42nd nationally)

Last week: 7.5 (13th SEC, 51st nationally)

Penalty yards: 55.4 YPG (13th, 38th)

Last week: 60.5 YPG (13th, 43rd)

Turnover margin: 2 (T-5th, 21st)

Last week: 0 (7th, T-32nd)

ESPN FOOTBALL POWER INDEX

Strength of record: 5th SEC, 18th nationally

Game control: 7th, 24th

Remaining strength of schedule: 7th, 8th (TeamRankings.com)

vs. LSU: 47.9% chance to win

Last week: 59.0%

at Miss State: 78.8%

Last week: 80.6%

vs. Tennessee: 80.1%

Last week: 78.0%

at Alabama: 10.7%

Last week: 13.4%

vs. Texas A&M: 61.5%

Last week: 64.1%

ESPN SP+ METRICS

Offensive efficiency rating: No. 44 nationally

Last week: No. 42

Defensive efficiency rating: No. 30

Last week: No. 22

Special teams efficiency rating: No. 8

Last week: No. 14

 

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to be fair, you can't have a discussion about stats without talking the stats of the opposing teams. Auburn has now played both the #1 and #2 defensive team in the league. 2 out of 5 games played against the best defenses in conferences. Middle of the pack offensively is less concerning to me right now, than the defensive stats 

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6 minutes ago, shabby said:

to be fair, you can't have a discussion about stats without talking the stats of the opposing teams. Auburn has now played both the #1 and #2 defensive team in the league. 2 out of 5 games played against the best defenses in conferences. Middle of the pack offensively is less concerning to me right now, than the defensive stats 

We're currently the 3rd best defense (SEC) versus points scored, which is the defining stat.  Steele sacrificed stats for points Saturday, and I'm fine with that.

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On 10/26/2020 at 4:35 PM, keesler said:

This same old song and dance has gotten OLD, F average.

I get the sentiment, but with CFB being as top heavy as it's ever been, there's a lot of teams stuck in "average" land.

If we want out of "average" land our local Men's Warehouse and Dodge dealerships have got to step up their game.

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So 3rd in scoring defense and middle of the pack offensively after playing the two top rated defenses in the conference. The Eye test says we are bad. The stats actually look pretty decent. surprising even for what it looks like on the field, 

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I haven’t seen anything to indicate that Auburn is anything other than average.  Get a few breaks it’s a win against anybody except UGA and Bammer.  A few breaks go the other way it’s a loss against anybody but Vandy.  If breaks are even it can go either way.  Average.

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Did hear today that AU is the only team in SEC who has yet to give up 30 points.  So no matter what you say, the bend but don't break is working.  If our O can't score 30 on the Ds that everyone else is then that is on the O.  Gone are the days of 3-2......

 

Hopefully

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1 hour ago, LKEEL75 said:

Did hear today that AU is the only team in SEC who has yet to give up 30 points.  So no matter what you say, the bend but don't break is working.  If our O can't score 30 on the Ds that everyone else is then that is on the O.  Gone are the days of 3-2......

Been saying this ever since people tried to blame that Mississippi State loss on our defense.

I'm not saying we're good this year, and the only reason uga didn't score 30 on us is because they chose not to. But we've gotten spoiled by a lot of great performances and tend to act like spoiled brats when they appear mortal. bama needed a lot more points to beat Ole Miss than we did. It's not great but it's not as bad as a lot of fans want it to be.

Of course, I guess that's exactly what the thread title says, so I'm not sure who I'm arguing against, lol.

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4 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Been saying this ever since people tried to blame that Mississippi State loss on our defense.

I'm not saying we're good this year, and the only reason uga didn't score 30 on us is because they chose not to. But we've gotten spoiled by a lot of great performances and tend to act like spoiled brats when they appear mortal. bama needed a lot more points to beat Ole Miss than we did. It's not great but it's not as bad as a lot of fans want it to be.

Of course, I guess that's exactly what the thread title says, so I'm not sure who I'm arguing against, lol.

What I saw in the OM game were 2 teams who were pulling back on their offenses, bc they were manhandled by USC and Ark respectively.

Watching the game, OM pulled their QB from throwing so much, and used Brumlee a lot more too. We went back to the run more and tried to be balanced.

So, I am not surprised OM offense was not has dominant and scoring happy as before, bc they wanted to stay on the ground more. And they would have scored more if the QB hadn't thrown a terrible INT in the EZ when they were down in our Red Zone.

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16 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

What I saw in the OM game were 2 teams who were pulling back on their offenses, bc they were manhandled by USC and Ark respectively.

Watching the game, OM pulled their QB from throwing so much, and used Brumlee a lot more too. We went back to the run more and tried to be balanced.

So, I am not surprised OM offense was not has dominant and scoring happy as before, bc they wanted to stay on the ground more. And they would have scored more if the QB hadn't thrown a terrible INT in the EZ when they were down in our Red Zone.

We ran the ball more because we're not very good at throwing it. 

And it doesn't make much sense to me that Ole Miss would throw for well over 300 against bama at the same time that Arkansas threw for well over 300 against us and think, nah, let's keep it on the ground. They threw 28 passes. Not a tremendous amount, but that would've made Nick Marshall blush in 2013. And yeah, we got 2 picks. Feels like that's a good thing that our defense did. As for all the QB runs, we were giving them that. Steele will always give an offense something underneath so as to limit big plays. That's exactly what was said that I responded to. He's always let teams operate between the 20s and then usually kept them out of the end zone.

Btw, Ole Miss lost TOP, so even if they were trying to protect their defense, our defense won that.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

We ran the ball more because we're not very good at throwing it. 

And it doesn't make much sense to me that Ole Miss would throw for well over 300 against bama at the same time that Arkansas threw for well over 300 against us and think, nah, let's keep it on the ground. They threw 28 passes. Not a tremendous amount, but that would've made Nick Marshall blush in 2013. And yeah, we got 2 picks. Feels like that's a good thing that our defense did. As for all the QB runs, we were giving them that. Steele will always give an offense something underneath so as to limit big plays. That's exactly what was said that I responded to. He's always let teams operate between the 20s and then usually kept them out of the end zone.

Btw, Ole Miss lost TOP, so even if they were trying to protect their defense, our defense won that.

 

 

 

I guess you missed my point. I wasn't talking about OM's defense, but that in reference to teams not scoring 30+ on us, I was referring to OM throttled back their offense bc they were terrible w the turnovers against Ark. 

And we did control the ball more on the ground and w no TOs from Bo. So OM didn't get as many series to move the ball.

 

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1 minute ago, steeleagle said:

I guess you missed my point. I wasn't talking about OM's defense, but that in reference to teams not scoring 30+ on us, I was referring to OM throttled back their offense bc they were terrible w the turnovers against Ark. 

And we did control the ball more on the ground and w no TOs from Bo. So OM didn't get as many series to move the ball.

Okay. That makes a little more sense. Fair point about the turnover margin. I don't think they coughed it up against bama.  I still have to give our defense some credit if Kiffin didn't think they could (and in fact did not) throw it all over the yard on us.

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3 hours ago, LKEEL75 said:

Did hear today that AU is the only team in SEC who has yet to give up 30 points.  So no matter what you say, the bend but don't break is working.  If our O can't score 30 on the Ds that everyone else is then that is on the O.  Gone are the days of 3-2......

 

Hopefully

Auburn gave up 30 to USCe and lost, gave up 27 to UGA and lost.  Auburn simply has to score neck and neck with other teams and not depend on the D to win games.

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1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

Sorry, I shouldn't say "because we're not very good at throwing it". That's true, but I should phrase that as "we're much better at running the ball". 

You could say it that way.

And go a step further and say that Gus is much better at beating our minor rivals. Actually nevermind, mine doesn't sound better like yours does. 

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4 hours ago, keesler said:

Auburn gave up 30 to USCe and lost, gave up 27 to UGA and lost.  Auburn simply has to score neck and neck with other teams and not depend on the D to win games.

My point is with today's Offenses the over is always 60 or more. Nobody has the D of the old days.  Just look at the almighty Bama.  Look at all the big plays they are giving up. 

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8 hours ago, steeleagle said:

I guess you missed my point. I wasn't talking about OM's defense, but that in reference to teams not scoring 30+ on us, I was referring to OM throttled back their offense bc they were terrible w the turnovers against Ark. 

And we did control the ball more on the ground and w no TOs from Bo. So OM didn't get as many series to move the ball.

 

according to Kiffen, they didn't throttle back because of the turnovers the week prior.   Kiffen wants to throw (and as you mentioned, still threw 28 times).  Steele sent out a defense that was dropping 8 frequently unless it was a clear passing down.   Kiffen's words .... "if that is how they are going to play us on defense, it is our job to run them out of that formation"  -  Steele was betting that they could not score enough on us by running on first and second down.  Steele knew we were not going to win a shootout like Bama did against them, so could not let it turn into that kind of game- and dared them to run.  Gave them the numbers to run - and won his bet.   

My guess is that Kiffen had a long talk with his QBs after the Ark game reminding them that when you run an RPO offense, and someone drops 8.... remember what the R stands for in RPO.  

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14 hours ago, keesler said:

Auburn gave up 30 to USCe and lost, gave up 27 to UGA and lost.  Auburn simply has to score neck and neck with other teams and not depend on the D to win games.

Nix threw three interceptions against South Carolina and the defense only gave up 297 yards. Yes, the turnovers limited the yards surrendered but that loss was on the offense.

Georgia just kicked their asses. No question about that. But the offense definitely shares equal blame when they could not even score seven points. And that has happened many times under Gus. Regularly failing to score double digits against Georgia will ultimately be Gus's legacy.

 

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