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Brad_ATX

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Q22XY.png

 

My best guess at this point.  I think PA sticks with Biden but Trump ekes out Florida.

But I'll note with this map, even if Trump were to take NC and PA and keep everything else I have marked red, Biden still wins 271-267.

 

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44 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

PRwk0

Brad, for the most part I agree with you so I’m not going to redo. I do think Trump takes Florida and NC.

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3 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Brad, for the most part I agree with you so I’m not going to redo. I do think Trump takes Florida and NC.

I think NC goes Biden.  He's consistently been up there for a while and it's not like NC going blue would be a shock.  State has a Democratic governor and went for Obama.

FL I think is a pure toss up.

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I actually really see a plausible Biden sweep. People constantly reference the polls being wrong in the last election, but the confidence intervals (which set the margin for error) were very wide. A Trump win was not the most likely outcome, but it was still considered statistically plausible. I haven’t checked polls much the last few weeks, but, when I looked about a month ago, a Trump win was outside the margin of error. 

AC354F50-8E71-48A1-90D6-A479488396F5.png

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On 10/28/2020 at 10:22 AM, TitanTiger said:

Q22XY.png

 

My best guess at this point.  I think PA sticks with Biden but Trump ekes out Florida.

But I'll note with this map, even if Trump were to take NC and PA and keep everything else I have marked red, Biden still wins 271-267.

 

switch NC and Georgia and close!!

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