Genuine Q about Iron Bowl

[Viper 3,120]

31 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

That's a fair point. It's just hard to think anybody makes a bigger impact than Waddle after his 3 TD performance last year.

Smith owns the bammer WR TD record...just passed Amari Cooper. And did it with Jeudy, Ruggs & Waddle on the same team for 3 seasons.

Smith has caught 4 TDs in two separate games, one of them without Waddle on the team to occupy defenses.

Waddle has had only one of those type monster games, where he had three 1st round WRs to occupy our defense.

[AUght2win 6,816]

4 minutes ago, Viper said:

How is the 20 offense better than 18? Other than Whitlow, we were superior at every offensive position in 18 except WR where it’s a push. With Tank likely out this Sat, even that position isn’t clearly in favor of the 20 offense. 

The 20 team lost to a team who has already fired their HC.

18 is a better team than 20. It’s not even close.

I just disagree. Talent is only one aspect. The intangibles matter. That 18 team had locker room and chemistry problems. Also clearly Stidham was either regressing or just not all-in. The 18 team SHOULD have been amazing. They weren't. 

[AUght2win 6,816]

1 minute ago, Viper said:

Where he had three 1st round WRs to occupy our defense.

You highlight Waddle benefitting from 3 first rounders occupying defenders, doesn't that also apply to Devonta?

Devonta is a monster. Not taking anything away from him. But he is a big beneficiary of playing all 4 years and of the years he came through Alabama. 

Look this really doesn't matter. Figuring out if Devonta or Waddle is better isn't what this topic is about. They are both locks for 1st round picks (at least they were before Waddle's injury). I think the difference for me is Waddle's versatility and breaking open the game on a TD return. But either way, they're both elite. 

[Win4AU 4,052]

[AUght2win 6,816]

12 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

I would also hope you’d agree that one game where you got into a shootout with another team the third game of the season and still win by 15 doesn’t make you “very beatable”. Since that game, their margin of victory has been: 17, 31, 41, and 60.

If we were a high powered offense I’d share in your enthusiasm, but we haven’t put up 600 yards of offense on anybody this season.

I don't care what game it is, it's Ole Miss. With a first year HC. Under no circumstances would any other team in the Saban era have given up that kind of night to a team like that. You can't just act like that one doesn't count. 

[PigskinPat 2,568]

10 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

I don't care what game it is, it's Ole Miss. With a first year HC. Under no circumstances would any other team in the Saban era have given up that kind of night to a team like that. You can't just act like that one doesn't count. 

I never said it didn’t. But one game where one of the best offensive minds in the sec put up big numbers on them and still lost by 15 in my book doesn’t make them “very beatable”. Can you name a game this season where we in any way resembled Ole Miss that night?

[AUght2win 6,816]

2 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

I never said it didn’t. But one game where one of the best offensive minds in the sec put up big numbers on them and still lost by 15 in my book doesn’t make them “very beatable”. Can you name a game this season where we in any way resembled Ole Miss that night?

I mean the LSU game was a complete and utter demolishment was it not? 

[PigskinPat 2,568]

9 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

I mean the LSU game was a complete and utter demolishment was it not? 

It was by far our best game of the year. It was at home and we put up the most points we’ve scored on a team all season, 48, but bama’s defense is a whole heck of a lot better than that lsu defense we faced.

Don’t get me wrong I wished I had the optimism you have for this game, but based on the bodies of work for each team I just don’t see us pulling out a victory.

[Swamp Eagle 5,128]

3 hours ago, Zeek said:

Just look at common opponents man and the fact that Gus has never won in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama vs Kentucky 63-3 || Auburn vs Kentucky 29-13

Alabama vs Tennessee 48-17 || Auburn vs Tennessee 30-17

Alabama vs Georgia 41-24 || Auburn vs Georgia 27-6 (they put up 41 on a defense we couldn't score 7 on)

Alabama vs Ole Miss 63-48 || Auburn vs Ole Miss 35-28

--------------------------------------------------------------

AL OL > AU DL

AL RBs > AU LBs

AL WRs > AU DBs

AL DL > AU OL

AU RB > AL LB (if Tank is healthy which it doesn't sound like will be the case)

AU WR > AL DBs (maybe)

AL Special Teams > AU Special Teams

Alabama's 5 advantages to Auburn's 2

--------------------------------------------------------------

Objectively there's no reason to think that Auburn has a chance other than it's the Iron Bowl and now Nick Saban won't be there. It's been a decade since we won in Tuscaloosa and they actually look like the #1 team this year. Harris could run for 250 if the defense looks like it did this past week.

Common opponent comparisons are overrated, and I’ll tell you why. In 1974, Alabama got a safety and 2 FG’s to beat unranked Florida State 8-7. The winning score came very late. 
 

Meanwhile, Auburn pounded FSU in a rout 38-6. 
 

Guess who won the Iron Bowl...

[Zeek 16,615]

1 minute ago, Swamp Eagle said:

Common opponent comparisons are overrated, and I’ll tell you why. In 1974, Alabama got a safety and 2 FG’s to beat unranked Florida State 8-7. The winning score came very late. 
 

Meanwhile, Auburn pounded FSU in a rout 38-6. 
 

Guess who won the Iron Bowl...

I agree to an extent but when you have this many like-opponents to compare it's something to consider. 

[Swamp Eagle 5,128]

2 minutes ago, Zeek said:

I agree to an extent but when you have this many like-opponents to compare it's something to consider. 

I don’t disagree with your assessment of who wins, or why, but it will have less to do with comparing common opponents and all to do with comparing Auburn and Alabama personnel.

1974 broke me from comparisons..

[AUght2win 6,816]

26 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

It was by far our best game of the year. It was at home and we put up the most points we’ve scored on a team all season, 48, but bama’s defense is a whole heck of a lot better than that lsu defense we faced.

Don’t get me wrong I wished I had the optimism you have for this game, but based on the bodies of work for each team I just don’t see us pulling out a victory.

Don't get me wrong. I still think we lose. I just have been confused on this particular year's pessimism and the 24 point spread. We have had IBs where we were a lot more mismatched than this one, yet it seems like our own fanbase is uniquely hopeless this year. 

[gr82be 14,402]

1 hour ago, AUght2win said:

Don't get me wrong. I still think we lose. I just have been confused on this particular year's pessimism and the 24 point spread. We have had IBs where we were a lot more mismatched than this one, yet it seems like our own fanbase is uniquely hopeless this year. 

So an honest question here because I'm not a bettor. If the home team gets 7 points as I think I've heard then would that mean Bama would be a 10 point favorite at JHS? If it would be 17 at a neutral site would if actually be 10 at Auburn? Just curious because Bama was a 15 point favorite at JHS in 2015. 

[Win4AU 4,052]

46 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

Common opponent comparisons are overrated, and I’ll tell you why. In 1974, Alabama got a safety and 2 FG’s to beat unranked Florida State 8-7. The winning score came very late. 
 

Meanwhile, Auburn pounded FSU in a rout 38-6. 
 

Guess who won the Iron Bowl...

Also as we’ve seen comparing anything from the beginning of this season to now isn’t accurate.  I think Auburn beats UGA if they played last weekend and handles UK if they play now.  Maybe not to the extent of Alabama but who knows.  That South Carolina loss was your typical Gus game where it comes to light how the offense needs to run.

[Swamp Eagle 5,128]

29 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Don't get me wrong. I still think we lose. I just have been confused on this particular year's pessimism and the 24 point spread. We have had IBs where we were a lot more mismatched than this one, yet it seems like our own fanbase is uniquely hopeless this year. 

With Gus, each passing season the hopelessness is amplified.

[AUFriction 1,179]

I just still can’t get a read on this Bama team. This is “not your father’s Bama.” They used to have a good run game, a good defense, and a mediocre pass game, usually brought to life by 1 elite receiver. From what I’ve seen, this team has a more inconsistent defense than ours is, a good run game, and an exceptional pass game brought to life by multiple elite receivers even if their QB is meh. It just seems like we are a step behind in most places. Their run offense is good but not elite, but our run defense has looked... not good. Our pass defense actually isn’t bad, but their pass offense is elite. Where I’m confused is the other side of the ball. Bama’s D has looked pitiful at times this season, but then there’s games like last week where they only gave up a field goal. I’ll say this, there should be no amplified “fire Gus” chants of we lose this weekend. Unless Steele pulls a rabbit out of his hat, this game is going to come down to a question of how much our offense can produce. With no spring, a condensed fall practice, and 21 days off due to covid during the season, I’m not convinced we can go toe to toe with them scoring.

[Mike4AU 1,739]

2 hours ago, Win4AU said:

Bama comes out and blows the doors off and then takes the foot off the gas and Auburn puts some points to make it look not as bad as it is.

I have watched a fair number of bammer games and have seen lots of times when they have had huge leads in the middle of the 4th quarter and still had Mac Jones in with the pedal to the metal.  This team doesn’t run out the clock with ball control.  They enjoy embarrassing their opponents.  

[AUght2win 6,816]

29 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

I just still can’t get a read on this Bama team. This is “not your father’s Bama.” They used to have a good run game, a good defense, and a mediocre pass game, usually brought to life by 1 elite receiver. From what I’ve seen, this team has a more inconsistent defense than ours is, a good run game, and an exceptional pass game brought to life by multiple elite receivers even if their QB is meh. It just seems like we are a step behind in most places. Their run offense is good but not elite, but our run defense has looked... not good. Our pass defense actually isn’t bad, but their pass offense is elite. Where I’m confused is the other side of the ball. Bama’s D has looked pitiful at times this season, but then there’s games like last week where they only gave up a field goal. I’ll say this, there should be no amplified “fire Gus” chants of we lose this weekend. Unless Steele pulls a rabbit out of his hat, this game is going to come down to a question of how much our offense can produce. With no spring, a condensed fall practice, and 21 days off due to covid during the season, I’m not convinced we can go toe to toe with them scoring.

I decided to watch a bit of the UK game. Kentucky drove RIGHT down Bama's throat twice in the first quarter. Stalled inside the 10 twice. The second time they snapped a field goal attempt over the holder's head. Bama scored and broke their back. The game was a wash afterward.

I just was really taken aback by how easily UK moved the ball, before they made those critical errors. I think they have legit defensive issues.

[Swamp Eagle 5,128]

8 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

I decided to watch a bit of the UK game. Kentucky drove RIGHT down Bama's throat twice in the first quarter. Stalled inside the 10 twice. The second time they snapped a field goal attempt over the holder's head. Bama scored and broke their back. The game was a wash afterward.

I just was really taken aback by how easily UK moved the ball, before they made those critical errors. I think they have legit defensive issues.

I agree with this. The problem is they score points in bunches and we don’t, even against not-so-good defenses. That’s why it won’t be close.

[Win4AU 4,052]

27 minutes ago, Mike4AU said:

I have watched a fair number of bammer games and have seen lots of times when they have had huge leads in the middle of the 4th quarter and still had Mac Jones in with the pedal to the metal.  This team doesn’t run out the clock with ball control.  They enjoy embarrassing their opponents.  

With Sark calling the game he may try to show off and run it up.  We will see.  Maybe Sark will get greedy and it’ll cost him.

[Mike4AU 1,739]

12 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

  Maybe Sark will get greedy and it’ll cost him.

Let’s hope so. 

[aubaseball 2,583]

2 hours ago, PigskinPat said:

It was by far our best game of the year. It was at home and we put up the most points we’ve scored on a team all season, 48, but bama’s defense is a whole heck of a lot better than that lsu defense we faced.

Don’t get me wrong I wished I had the optimism you have for this game, but based on the bodies of work for each team I just don’t see us pulling out a victory.

14 of those points came from the defense.   

Same as last years Bama game.   It’s going to take that again for Auburn to have a chance 

[Mikey 16,550]

7 hours ago, AUght2win said:

We have serious holes. Including the ones in our coach's head.

Yet, he's managed to out-smart Saban more than once.

[japantiger 4,051]

6 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Well you may be right purely on point spread, but I think the point spread is absurd. Knock on wood but I see no way we get beat that bad Saturday.

25 is the average margin of victory of all Saban Alabama teams playing at home in the Iron Bowl....absurd; really?

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

Honestly, Bama's Defense is not really as bad as people say. No where near it. They have a lot of talent at very position..NFL talent. They have been sneaky good the last 3-4 games. They are a top 10 scoring Defense in the country I believe.

If they still used that 2008-2009 Offensive philosophy this Defense would probably be among the very best across the board. Their offense scores at will so the Defense is out there A LOT!