Genuine Q about Iron Bowl

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

5 hours ago, gr82be said:

So an honest question here because I'm not a bettor. If the home team gets 7 points as I think I've heard then would that mean Bama would be a 10 point favorite at JHS? If it would be 17 at a neutral site would if actually be 10 at Auburn? Just curious because Bama was a 15 point favorite at JHS in 2015. 

Home team gets about 3, not 7.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

3 hours ago, aubaseball said:

14 of those points came from the defense.   

Same as last years Bama game.   It’s going to take that again for Auburn to have a chance 

I think people overlook this so much.  In 3 of our last 4 wins over Bama, we've needed EVERYTHING to go right just to eek out victories.

2010 - Comeback, but don't forget some key Bama miscues in the first half that could have buried us. 

2013 - Kick 6 was great, but Bama missed 3 or 4 FGs that night.  Make any of them and we aren't in position to win.

2019 - Two pick 6s, the end of first half FG, and the doink by Bama in the 4th.

The only solid, no doubt win we've had in that time was in 2017.

Point being, we need a to to go right just to have an outside chance Saturday.

[AUght2win 6,832]

2 hours ago, japantiger said:

25 is the average margin of victory of all Saban Alabama teams playing at home in the Iron Bowl....absurd; really?

Yes. Don't get cute with irrelevant stats. You're using the Tubberville blowout and the Chizik blowout to get those numbers. In four games, in T-Town, with Gus as a coach (3 as HC and 1 as OC) Saban has beaten us by 20+ only once. One we won. Another we set every offensive record possible but conscientiously objected to covering Amari Cooper.

[AUght2win 6,832]

43 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I think people overlook this so much.  In 3 of our last 4 wins over Bama, we've needed EVERYTHING to go right just to eek out victories.

2010 - Comeback, but don't forget some key Bama miscues in the first half that could have buried us. 

2013 - Kick 6 was great, but Bama missed 3 or 4 FGs that night.  Make any of them and we aren't in position to win.

2019 - Two pick 6s, the end of first half FG, and the doink by Bama in the 4th.

The only solid, no doubt win we've had in that time was in 2017.

Point being, we need a to to go right just to have an outside chance Saturday.

Nahhhh. You're using the Bammer "we never lose, the other team just gets lucky" excuse.

Look, Gus sucks. I have been very vocal about that. But he outcoached Saban in all those games. 

2010 - you don't JUST comeback from 24-0 down to your rival in their place. Auburn earned that legendary win, despite spotting them 24 points.

2013 - we lost the turnover battle 1-0. Think about that. We beat the #1 team in America without them turning the ball over. 

2019 - a bad Sark playcall + Big Kat pressure + tight McClain coverage equalled one pick six. Smoke was gifted the second one, but it's his job to make QB's pay for mistakes. 

But those teams all had more talent than this year's Tigers. So you're right. We'll need everything to go our way for a puncher's chance to win. However, I don't think it'll take a miracle to beat the spread. 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

14 hours ago, AUght2win said:

I fully understand we are not a championship caliber team. We have serious holes. Including the ones in our coach's head. We are very fortunate to be 5-2, and I wouldn't pick us to win Saturday.

That said, why are so many convinced Saturday will be a blowout? Or that a win would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history? I don't see it, and it's less to do with us and more to do with our opponent. 

Alabama has an otherworldly offense. But it's without its best player. And I don't see us giving up too many explosive plays to an offense sans Waddle.

On the other side of the ball, their defense is the worst, IMO, since Saban's been there - Ole Miss put up 650 yards on them, and they don't play very well against the run.

I think we actually may match up well against them. If we can run the ball (we should be able to) and limit huge chunks through the air (we should be able to), then I think the game will be shortened and we definitely will have a shot in the 4th.

But to those who say otherwise, aside from a lot of offensive talent (which Alabama always has), why are you convinced this one won't be close? 

This is easy, either they have no clue how many times underdogs wins this game - with guys buried on the depth chart like Tre Smith - or more likely, to appear "in the know", hip, cool, whatever by being a "realist" in an emotional game played by 18-22 year olds.

War DAMN Eagle!

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Just now, aucanucktiger said:

This is easy, either they have no clue how many times underdogs wins this game - with guys buried on the depth chart like Tre Smith - or more likely, to appear "in the know", hip, cool, whatever by being a "realist" in an emotional game played by 18-22 year olds.

War DAMN Eagle!

Fwiw, Malzahn's occasional brain cramp games are well documented on this board but when he has beaten Saban it has been by flat out coaching him. 2019, 2013 for starters - preserving that 2019 win was MASTERFUL coaching by Gus and went basically unmentioned here. He always plays the IB with significantly less depth than Saban too.

[gr82be 14,423]

1 hour ago, aucanucktiger said:

This is easy, either they have no clue how many times underdogs wins this game - with guys buried on the depth chart like Tre Smith - or more likely, to appear "in the know", hip, cool, whatever by being a "realist" in an emotional game played by 18-22 year olds.

War DAMN Eagle!

In the past 45 years when the line has been under 10 points, some strange things have happened but when Alabama has been a prohibitive favorite in this game they win and usually handily. They are a huge favorite Saturday for a reason, they beat the teams they are supposed to beat, badly, while we struggle with some of those same teams. 

[autigeremt 6,598]

16 hours ago, woodford said:

Auburn’s defense isn’t that good. They let UT run all over them. If Tennessee just ran the ball every play they probably beat Auburn. Auburn’s offense without Tank isn’t that good either because the OL is still mediocre. That’s common knowledge under Gus. 
 

Even without Waddle they have Devonta Smith and N. Harris. They have plenty of other options besides Waddle. They have no shortage of weapons.
 

Re, Ole Miss, they have a better offense than we do. That’s why they put up those numbers. Ole Miss doesn’t have a defense. That’s why they gave up 63 points to them.  Also Alabama’s “bad defense” has more future NFL talent on it than this Auburn defense that held Ole Miss to under 30 points. 

Nothing personal, but how can you even think Auburn has a chance when you’ve seen how they’ve played all year? Not to mention all the injuries. It would be absolute miracle if Auburn wins on Saturday. They do not match up well AT ALL against Alabama. If we were 100% healthy, the spread would probably be 19 or 20 which is still HUGE. 

I think Auburn has a chance because we’ve shown, at times, to beat Alabama when no one else could come close. Seriously 

[PigskinPat 2,579]

12 hours ago, aubaseball said:

14 of those points came from the defense.   

Same as last years Bama game.   It’s going to take that again for Auburn to have a chance 

Exactly!! The LSU game is considered to be our best game of the year, where everything was clicking and we completely dominated our opponent. And we still only managed to score 34 points on offense.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

8 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Nahhhh. You're using the Bammer "we never lose, the other team just gets lucky" excuse.

Look, Gus sucks. I have been very vocal about that. But he outcoached Saban in all those games. 

2010 - you don't JUST comeback from 24-0 down to your rival in their place. Auburn earned that legendary win, despite spotting them 24 points.

2013 - we lost the turnover battle 1-0. Think about that. We beat the #1 team in America without them turning the ball over. 

2019 - a bad Sark playcall + Big Kat pressure + tight McClain coverage equalled one pick six. Smoke was gifted the second one, but it's his job to make QB's pay for mistakes. 

But those teams all had more talent than this year's Tigers. So you're right. We'll need everything to go our way for a puncher's chance to win. However, I don't think it'll take a miracle to beat the spread. 

It's not Bammer logic.  You're discounting things like missed chip shot FGs like those weren't huge breaks for us.  It's easy to look at 2013 and say " Bama never turned the ball over", but you also have to acknowledge how many points they left on the field.  Make literally any of those FGs that they missed during the game and the Kick 6 doesn't happen.

2019 is similar.  Both picks were gifted.  Mac floated the first one 10 yards over his receiver and the second was an incredible bounce.  Then add in the lucky break we caught at the half plus the missed 30 yd FG for Bama.  

The truth is, we HAVE been fortunate.  Credit to Auburn for taking advantage when getting those breaks.

[woodford 3,655]

3 hours ago, autigeremt said:

I think Auburn has a chance because we’ve shown, at times, to beat Alabama when no one else could come close. Seriously 

When was the last time Auburn beat Alabama when the odds were stacked this high? Last year they were only a 3 point dog. The 17 game we were a top 10 team. In 13 we were a top 4 team. 
 

I know everyone thinks “Auburn has no chance” every year but anyone who knows football could tell in those years Auburn had at least a chance based on talent and performance that year alone. 

[DAG 33,973]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

It's not Bammer logic.  You're discounting things like missed chip shot FGs like those weren't huge breaks for us.  It's easy to look at 2013 and say " Bama never turned the ball over", but you also have to acknowledge how many points they left on the field.  Make literally any of those FGs that they missed during the game and the Kick 6 doesn't happen.

2019 is similar.  Both picks were gifted.  Mac floated the first one 10 yards over his receiver and the second was an incredible bounce.  Then add in the lucky break we caught at the half plus the missed 30 yd FG for Bama.  

The truth is, we HAVE been fortunate.  Credit to Auburn for taking advantage when getting those breaks.

Vary rarely can great teams like Bama simply get beat without beating themselves. In fact that is with any great team. It happens on the rarest occasions and when it does those teams usually end up winning it all. 

[TuscaloosaTiger 281]

4 hours ago, gr82be said:

In the past 45 years when the line has been under 10 points, some strange things have happened but when Alabama has been a prohibitive favorite in this game they win and usually handily. They are a huge favorite Saturday for a reason, they beat the teams they are supposed to beat, badly, while we struggle with some of those same teams. 

This response is just outside your 45 year window, but my first Iron Bowl in person was my AU sophomore year in 1971.  UA was ranked #1 and AU was about #5, both were undefeated.  AU lost 30 something to 7, but  Pat Sullivan would go on to win the Heisman.  My only memory of the game was Johnny Musso playing in tear away jerseys and them being very effective.  Whatever happened to tear away jerseys?  When were they last used?

[WVR 818]

32 minutes ago, TuscaloosaTiger said:

This response is just outside your 45 year window, but my first Iron Bowl in person was my AU sophomore year in 1971.  UA was ranked #1 and AU was about #5, both were undefeated.  AU lost 30 something to 7, but  Pat Sullivan would go on to win the Heisman.  My only memory of the game was Johnny Musso playing in tear away jerseys and them being very effective.  Whatever happened to tear away jerseys?  When were they last used?

... The NFL banned tear-away jerseys in 1979, and college football banned them permanently in 1982.Jul 27, 2015

USA Football › blogs › blog › tear-...

Tear-away jerseys: One of football's most unique innovations

[johnnyAU 3,630]

The best offensive player is Najee Harris, and he'll have a field day.

[AUght2win 6,832]

4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

It's not Bammer logic.  You're discounting things like missed chip shot FGs like those weren't huge breaks for us.  It's easy to look at 2013 and say " Bama never turned the ball over", but you also have to acknowledge how many points they left on the field.  Make literally any of those FGs that they missed during the game and the Kick 6 doesn't happen.

2019 is similar.  Both picks were gifted.  Mac floated the first one 10 yards over his receiver and the second was an incredible bounce.  Then add in the lucky break we caught at the half plus the missed 30 yd FG for Bama.  

The truth is, we HAVE been fortunate.  Credit to Auburn for taking advantage when getting those breaks.

But that's just football, though. It's not like field goals are an illegitimate part of the game. Our defense forced stops, and as always, Saban's special teams sucked. Depending on field goals is ALWAYS playing with fire.

Alabama lost. We were better. Period. You don't hear us saying "Bama was lucky that our line didn't block well and Jeremy Johnson threw picks. Otherwise we would have won." 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

3 hours ago, AUght2win said:

But that's just football, though. It's not like field goals are an illegitimate part of the game. Our defense forced stops, and as always, Saban's special teams sucked. Depending on field goals is ALWAYS playing with fire.

Alabama lost. We were better. Period. You don't hear us saying "Bama was lucky that our line didn't block well and Jeremy Johnson threw picks. Otherwise we would have won." 

I never argued it was an illegitimate part of the game.  I'm saying we were extremely fortunate to have kickers miss that many FGs against us.  There's an undeniable element of luck in that.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

I’m not a Gus fan but it would do you guys well to remember, if Gus beats Saben Saturday he will be 4-4 with probably the best coach I n D1 football in the last 8 years . And zero of Saben’s  coaching  tree has ever beat him it like 16-0. And not even Dabo has beat Nick that much. Jus t saying. 

[Viper 3,132]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:08 PM, AUght2win said:

I just disagree. Talent is only one aspect. The intangibles matter. That 18 team had locker room and chemistry problems. Also clearly Stidham was either regressing or just not all-in. The 18 team SHOULD have been amazing. They weren't. 

Talent matters. What talent will the 20 team place in the first 2 rounds?

What intangibles does the 20 team possess besides sharing a common trait with Vandy being the only other team South Carolina defeated?

20 team is not above chemistry problems as clearly evidenced with Nix & Williams at South Carolina.

You have this 20 team badly overrated.

[Viper 3,132]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:15 PM, AUght2win said:

You highlight Waddle benefitting from 3 first rounders occupying defenders, doesn't that also apply to Devonta?

Devonta is a monster. Not taking anything away from him. But he is a big beneficiary of playing all 4 years and of the years he came through Alabama. 

Look this really doesn't matter. Figuring out if Devonta or Waddle is better isn't what this topic is about. They are both locks for 1st round picks (at least they were before Waddle's injury). I think the difference for me is Waddle's versatility and breaking open the game on a TD return. But either way, they're both elite. 

Again, Smith had his 2nd 4 TD game without Jeudy, Ruggs or Waddle on the team.

Smith was the higher ranked WR before Waddle's injury.

Smith has better range and hands than Waddle. Waddle counts on blowing past DBs to catch his TDs. Smith is a much more complete WR, able to come down with it anywhere on the field regardless if he beats his man/double-team or not. Waddle has had a few of those but nowhere close to Smith.

[Viper 3,132]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:20 PM, AUght2win said:

I don't care what game it is, it's Ole Miss. With a first year HC. Under no circumstances would any other team in the Saban era have given up that kind of night to a team like that. You can't just act like that one doesn't count. 

And since halftime of the Georgia game, bammer has given up a grand total of 20 points...an average of 1.4 points per quarter.

You can't just act like that fact doesn't count either.

[Viper 3,132]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:50 PM, Zeek said:

I agree to an extent but when you have this many like-opponents to compare it's something to consider. 

Bingo. In a one common opponent deal, it happens plenty.

I remember back late in the 2000 season, ESPN did one of those "this team beat that team," so that means "this team can beat that team." It was a long chain of games that season to prove their point...about 10-15 of them. After the chain of outcomes were shown, they showed that one of the worst teams in the nation...it wasn't even a P5 team...could beat FSU. It was somebody like Austin Peay because they beat the team, that beat the team, that beat the team, that beat FSU that season.

As you pointed out, AU and bammer have four common opponents. And the only opponent that was close was Ole Miss. We beat them by 7. bammer beat them by 15. None of the others were even close.

[Viper 3,132]

On 11/25/2020 at 7:11 PM, AUght2win said:

We have had IBs where we were a lot more mismatched than this one

The only two I remember coming into the game being more mismatched were 2008 and 2012. Didn't score in either of those.

Since 2010, the only one in Tuscaloosa that was close was 2014, where Nick Marshall set the all-time single game AU passing record. Instead, we have a QB that is highly prone to throwing INTs on the road.

[TuscaloosaTiger 281]

7 hours ago, WVR said:

... The NFL banned tear-away jerseys in 1979, and college football banned them permanently in 1982.Jul 27, 2015

USA Football › blogs › blog › tear-...

Tear-away jerseys: One of football's most unique innovations

Thanks for the link.  Very nice read on tear aways that included mention of Musso wearing them in the 1971 season.

[Viper 3,132]

10 hours ago, woodford said:

When was the last time Auburn beat Alabama when the odds were stacked this high?

We've never beaten bammer as a 20+ point dog.

The largest spread AU has overcome to beat bammer was 1972. We were 16-point dogs.

Next was 2002. 11-point dogs.

Next was 2013. 10-point dogs.

In my time watching AU, which goes back to the early 80s, the largest spread I recall AU overcoming was Florida in 2001. We were 26.5-point dogs. Perhaps the older crowd recalls larger upsets.

To this day, that is the only game where I said it was impossible for AU to win and they did. So many things fell right for AU that night. Grossman turning it over four times. Florida's long-snapper hiking a ground ball to their own 2-yard line, which led to one of AU's only two TDs of the game. Most of all, it was at night in front of a packed raucous JH crowd.

If this game were being played in JH, I would give us a snowball's chance.