If Gus isn’t fired tomorrow, AU is a loser institution

[WalkingCarpet 1,139]

I'll tell y'all this, if we went and got Luke Fickell tomorrow he'd have this thing turned around within three years. He's 30-5 in the last three years at a program who is a distant second in their state. 

[AUFriction 1,178]

9 minutes ago, WalkingCarpet said:

I'll tell y'all this, if we went and got Luke Fickell tomorrow he'd have this thing turned around within three years. He's 30-5 in the last three years at a program who is a distant second in their state. 

He’s never coached outside Ohio, which suggests that he probably doesn’t want to leave. 
 

If we could get him, it’s still no guarantee that he’d be a success. There’s plenty of guys that have been successful at the group of 5 level that haven’t been able to hack it at a power 5 school. He’s not going up against difficult coaches or stellar players at that level. The lack of familiarity with the south could also cause problems with recruiting, especially early on.

Edited November 29, 2020 by AUFriction

[PigskinPat 1,551]

9 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

No. I do statistics for a living, so I understood the premise completely. It’s still hogwash. How many stories are there of coaches doing well at the FCS level or in a group of 5 conference that weren’t good enough to succeed at the power 5 level? Coaches Gus is better than: most of the JUCOs, most of Division 3, most of division 2, most of FCS, most of the group of 5, most of the teams with losing records year after year in the power 5. Now some of those coaches could just be earlier in their careers. But for the most part, if those coaches were better, they’d have moved up by now. 

Ok.... since you are proclaiming yourself as an expert on the ability of every coach in every division of college football, what percentage of the coaches would you say are better than Gus?

[AUFriction 1,178]

3 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

Ok.... since you are proclaiming yourself as an expert on the ability of every coach in every division of college football, what percentage of the coaches would you say are better than Gus?

Including every coaching level or just college?

[PigskinPat 1,551]

2 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

Including every coaching level or just college?

However far your expertise reaches and do you feel like we should pursue any of them to replace Gus.

Edited November 29, 2020 by PigskinPat

[autigeremt 2,698]

Auburn will never be elite until elite is the only expected destination by those who call the shots. 

 

[cole256 8,524]

1 hour ago, AUFriction said:

I disagree. For me it’s:

Tier 1- Bama, UGA

Tier 2- UF, Auburn, LSU

Tier 3- TAMU, UK, Ole Miss 

Tier 4- Everyone else

Tier 5- Vandy

UF looks good this year, but they also play an easier schedule. I’m also not convinced they are just going to reload next year and do it again like you see with Bama and Alabama. If they look just as good next year, I’d change my mind. 
I don’t buy the TAMU hype. TAMU is the Tennessee of the SEC west. Every year, the media claims this will be the year they turn it around, and it never happens. They have one marquis win this year over Florida. Other than that, they’ve looked pretty meh. I mean they barely beat vandy. Maybe it’s that I think Jimbo is a bad coach. Maybe it’s because I think they don’t have a legitimate threat at QB. But I have them on a tier below us.

You never explained any logic of your doubts of a&m but you talk us up

[Swamp Eagle 1,709]

3 hours ago, creed said:

Uh....You’re an idiot.  

I knew you were too young to understand that..

[AUFriction 1,178]

6 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

However far your expertise reaches and do you feel like we should pursue any of them to replace Gus.

I'll make an estimation, but it isn't really going to be very useful. You have to have input to gain an adequate estimate here. So it has to start with some assumptions, but I'll keep them on the conservative side (favoring your premise a little). The main assumption is this...The money in college coaching is all in FBS jobs. So most college coaches want to coach at that level, yet many don't ever get to. As such, you have to make an assumption that the lower level college coaches are not as good of quality aside from maybe a few that are early career, up and coming types that just haven't found their way into the FBS ranks yet. Still, that group should be assumed to be the minority since we don't see a lot of coaches jumping from Division 2 and 3 to FBS. There's more frequent jumps from FCS to FBS, but it still isn't super common. So ultimately, you have to start off with an assumption that most of the colleges at the lower levels are not going to be as good as any of the FBS coaches. As such, you'll see I estimated that less coaches at the lower levels were better, but assumed more coaches at the higher levels were better. 

Let's say roughly 10 % of the coaches at the JUCO, division 2, and division 3 levels are up and comers that just haven't broken into the top ranks yet with better coaching prowess than Gus. We'll get a little more aggressive at the FCS level, and say that 30% of those are better than Gus. Now, I'll get really generous for FBS. Let's say that every FBS coach is better. 

Now, let's do the math. Combining JUCO, div. 2, and div. 3, that's 484 programs. 10% of that is 48.4. So roughly 48 coaches would be better than Gus. 

At FCS, there are 127 programs. If 30% of their coaches are better, that comes to 38 coaches. 

Now, let's assume that all the FBS Coaches are better. That's 130 coaches. 

38+48+130=216

The total number of programs is 741. Making some generous assumptions toward your argument, only 216 out 741 coaches, or 29.14% of coaches would be better than Gus. Keep in mind that I assumed EVERY division 1 FBS coach was better in this. My estimate is based on an assumption that gives your argument an advantage. Even with that, the numbers were nowhere near 1/2. 

 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 3,363]

I dont know why you would've made this after this game. There was absolutely no chance this game was going to be close unless Sark came in drunk. 

 

and no matter what this game was, it shouldnt have changed your opinion. 

[AUFriction 1,178]

2 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I dont know why you would've made this after this game. There was absolutely no chance this game was going to be close unless Sark came in drunk. 

 

and no matter what this game was, it shouldnt have changed your opinion. 

There's always a chance. But your underlying idea is correctly. It was very unlikely we were going to to win, and relatively likely they were going to win by double digits. (They've won every game this year by double digits.) I really don't understand why people are flipping out tonight. The game today went exactly as anyone being realistic should've expected it to go. 

[WalkingCarpet 1,139]

17 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

He’s never coached outside Ohio, which suggests that he probably doesn’t want to leave. 
 

If we could get him, it’s still no guarantee that he’d be a success. There’s plenty of guys that have been successful at the group of 5 level that haven’t been able to hack it at a power 5 school. He’s not going up against difficult coaches or stellar players at that level. The lack of familiarity with the south could also cause problems with recruiting, especially early on.

I don't understand posts like this. Constantly shooting holes in the resumes of otherwise strong coaching candidates is how we talk ourselves into keeping this unsustainable status quo. Do you think LSU was worried about Nick Saban having no ties to the south before hiring him away from Michigan State? How about Florida with Urban Meyer? How about Les Miles at LSU? Nick Saban is not out there waiting for our call and we already crapped the bed with Kirby Smart. Do we want to hire another high school coach or someone who learned under Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer? Unless Ryan Day dies of covid Ohio State ain't opening up anytime soon and they already passed him over once before. He's too good of a coach to spend the next 20 years in the AAC. There will always be risk with a coaching change but the current trajectory of this program is no longer tenable. Watch a few games of Cincinnati's and ask yourself these questions: Can he get the most out of his players? Y/N. Will he get us in trouble with the NCAA? Y/N. Do we like the culture he has established at his previous program? Y/N. If you answered yes, no, yes then he is someone to think about. 

[murpjf88 354]

1 hour ago, AUFriction said:

I disagree. For me it’s:

Tier 1- Bama, UGA

Tier 2- UF, Auburn, LSU

Tier 3- TAMU, UK, Ole Miss 

Tier 4- Everyone else

Tier 5- Vandy

UF looks good this year, but they also play an easier schedule. I’m also not convinced they are just going to reload next year and do it again like you see with Bama and Alabama. If they look just as good next year, I’d change my mind. 
I don’t buy the TAMU hype. TAMU is the Tennessee of the SEC west. Every year, the media claims this will be the year they turn it around, and it never happens. They have one marquis win this year over Florida. Other than that, they’ve looked pretty meh. I mean they barely beat vandy. Maybe it’s that I think Jimbo is a bad coach. Maybe it’s because I think they don’t have a legitimate threat at QB. But I have them on a tier below us.

Auburn is tier 3. LSU won the national championship last year.  LSU is having a down year but unless you can win a single game in Baton Rouge, you're NOT on the same tier.

[PigskinPat 1,551]

5 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

I'll make an estimation, but it isn't really going to be very useful. You have to have input to gain an adequate estimate here. So it has to start with some assumptions, but I'll keep them on the conservative side (favoring your premise a little). The main assumption is this...The money in college coaching is all in FBS jobs. So most college coaches want to coach at that level, yet many don't ever get to. As such, you have to make an assumption that the lower level college coaches are not as good of quality aside from maybe a few that are early career, up and coming types that just haven't found their way into the FBS ranks yet. Still, that group should be assumed to be the minority since we don't see a lot of coaches jumping from Division 2 and 3 to FBS. There's more frequent jumps from FCS to FBS, but it still isn't super common. So ultimately, you have to start off with an assumption that most of the colleges at the lower levels are not going to be as good as any of the FBS coaches. As such, you'll see I estimated that less coaches at the lower levels were better, but assumed more coaches at the higher levels were better. 

Let's say roughly 10 % of the coaches at the JUCO, division 2, and division 3 levels are up and comers that just haven't broken into the top ranks yet with better coaching prowess than Gus. We'll get a little more aggressive at the FCS level, and say that 30% of those are better than Gus. Now, I'll get really generous for FBS. Let's say that every FBS coach is better. 

Now, let's do the math. Combining JUCO, div. 2, and div. 3, that's 484 programs. 10% of that is 48.4. So roughly 48 coaches would be better than Gus. 

At FCS, there are 127 programs. If 30% of their coaches are better, that comes to 38 coaches. 

Now, let's assume that all the FBS Coaches are better. That's 130 coaches. 

38+48+130=216

The total number of programs is 741. Making some generous assumptions toward your argument, only 216 out 741 coaches, or 29.14% of coaches would be better than Gus. Keep in mind that I assumed EVERY division 1 FBS coach was better in this. My estimate is based on an assumption that gives your argument an advantage. Even with that, the numbers were nowhere near 1/2. 

 

Nowhere did I say that half the coaches in all divisions of college football are better than Gus. If you can find it, please quote it. And equal to isn’t the same as better. It just isn’t. The original comment was that 1/2 the coaches in college football could get the same results that Gus has gotten (about 4-5 losses a season). That’s not a high bar to clear. I mean, we had a 5-19 coach from Iowa State win a national championship at Auburn for goodness sakes. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that a lot of coaches could come here and have seasons with 4-5 losses.

[AUBourne 385]

 Auburn just wants to do enough to make a bowl and cash in the profits.  There is no other reason why Gus Malzahan will get a 9th year.  South Carolina demonstrates a greater desire for excellence. They prove it through actions. They actually have a football only facility and didn't hesitate to fire a coach that beat Gus this year.  Meanwhile the only consistent thing about Auburn football is 4 losses per year and TUF reminder emails. 

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Gus isn't getting fired tomorrow.  And given what I've seen of aTm there's a better than even chance we beat both them and MSU and finish 7-3, and he's definitely not getting fired then.  Unless you just tank like Muschamp did, it's a mulligan year in most AD's eyes, including Auburn's.  It is what it is.

 

[AUBourne 385]

This is all common sense tbh. 

4 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

Nowhere did I say that half the coaches in all divisions of college football are better than Gus. If you can find it, please quote it. And equal to isn’t the same as better. It just isn’t. The original comment was that 1/2 the coaches in college football could get the same results that Gus has gotten (about 4-5 losses a season). That’s not a high bar to clear. I mean, we had a 5-19 coach from Iowa State win a national championship at Auburn for goodness sakes. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that a lot of coaches could come here and have seasons with 4-5 losses.

 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 3,363]

Auburn is closer to A&M after 2013 than we are to LSU or Florida. Florida is getting their patsy SEC CG appearance that we got in 2017. They appear to be in a sustained period of success. LSU won a natty. 

I'd honestly put A&M and Auburn in the same tier

[Win4AU 1,844]

2 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Auburn is closer to A&M after 2013 than we are to LSU or Florida. Florida is getting their patsy SEC CG appearance that we got in 2017. They appear to be in a sustained period of success. LSU won a natty. 

I'd honestly put A&M and Auburn in the same tier

A&M and Auburn are definitely close.  LSU prior to their natty was a 9-10 win program who couldn’t beat Bama and usually tailed off at the end of the season to Ole Miss, Arkansas, or A&M.  They beat Auburn but usually they aren’t much better off by the end of the year with all the talent they have.  I see them returning to that same level until they replace Orgeron with the next coach who will probably do about the same.

[AUBourne 385]

There is really just two tiers. Alabama, LSU, UGA, UF. And then everyone else. LOL Vandy has beaten UGA as much as Auburn has over the last 16 years. 3 wins in 16 tries. . 

[Zeek 8,002]

4 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

There is really just two tiers. Alabama, LSU, UGA, UF. And then everyone else. LOL Vandy has beaten UGA as much as Auburn has over the last 16 years. 3 wins in 16 tries. . 

Haven't won the conference in 7 years

Never been to the playoffs

Trash in bowl games 

We're absolutely irrelevant 

[GwillMac6 16,098]

7 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

There is really just two tiers. Alabama, LSU, UGA, UF. And then everyone else. LOL Vandy has beaten UGA as much as Auburn has over the last 16 years. 3 wins in 16 tries. . 

Historically in the SEC There really is only 3 Tiers: Tier 1: Bama. Tier 2: AU, LSU, Florida and Georgia. Tier 3- Everyone else. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by GwillMac6

[Brad_ATX 8,885]

1 hour ago, AUFriction said:

He’s never coached outside Ohio, which suggests that he probably doesn’t want to leave. 
 

If we could get him, it’s still no guarantee that he’d be a success. There’s plenty of guys that have been successful at the group of 5 level that haven’t been able to hack it at a power 5 school. He’s not going up against difficult coaches or stellar players at that level. The lack of familiarity with the south could also cause problems with recruiting, especially early on.

I hate when people say this.  Nick Saban never coached in the South before going to LSU.  Same for Urban Meyer before he got to Florida.  And neither one of them were the big name coaches that they ended up being at the time of their respective hires.  Meyer was at a then Group of Five school in Utah and Saban came off a decent, but not earth shattering, stint at Michigan State.

Point being that recruits follow good coaching, plain and simple.

[GwillMac6 16,098]

6 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I hate when people say this.  Nick Saban never coached in the South before going to LSU.  Same for Urban Meyer before he got to Florida.  And neither one of them were the big name coaches that they ended up being at the time of their respective hires.  Meyer was at a then Group of Five school in Utah and Saban came off a decent, but not earth shattering, stint at Michigan State.

Point being that recruits follow good coaching, plain and simple.

SAY IT LOUDER SO THE GUS BUS PEOPLE SITTING IN THE BACK OF THE BUS CAN HEAR YOU!!! lol. Good recruiting TRAVELS!!! If you can recruit well you can recruit well ANYWHERE! Period. 

[AUFriction 1,178]

15 minutes ago, WalkingCarpet said:

I don't understand posts like this. Constantly shooting holes in the resumes of otherwise strong coaching candidates is how we talk ourselves into keeping this unsustainable status quo. Do you think LSU was worried about Nick Saban having no ties to the south before hiring him away from Michigan State? How about Florida with Urban Meyer? How about Les Miles at LSU? Nick Saban is not out there waiting for our call and we already crapped the bed with Kirby Smart. Do we want to hire another high school coach or someone who learned under Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer? Unless Ryan Day dies of covid Ohio State ain't opening up anytime soon and they already passed him over once before. He's too good of a coach to spend the next 20 years in the AAC. There will always be risk with a coaching change but the current trajectory of this program is no longer tenable. Watch a few games of Cincinnati's and ask yourself these questions: Can he get the most out of his players? Y/N. Will he get us in trouble with the NCAA? Y/N. Do we like the culture he has established at his previous program? Y/N. If you answered yes, no, yes then he is someone to think about. 

I apologize. This is a little bit rambly. I was kind of gathering my thoughts while I was writing it, but I think I make my point by the end.

 

Here's what I see. Gus right now is averaging about 8-9 wins per year. A lot of folks on this board want 10-11 wins a year, but that's unrealistic for our program right now. I've broken down why several times already on this thread, so look for those posts if you want more on why we will never be Alabama in terms of wins. But, 9-10 wins is probably pretty realistic, and it is probably what we should be expecting out of Gus. Should we aim for more? Yes. We should be winning a game more a year.

Creating a coaching change costs the program money because of a buyout. You almost always have players transfer. Making a coaching change comes with costs. So, you don't want to do it unless you are either a) very desperate because you are losing that many games, b) very sure the current coach has lost the team and will be unable to coach this group effectively moving forward, or c) very confident that you can hire someone better. 

For Auburn, we are looking at situation "c" here. We aren't losing insane amounts of games as we are only about a game behind a realistic record average. This certainly isn't a coach losing the team situation. In fact the players seem to genuinely love Gus. That leaves C. The justification for us changing coaches needs to be that we believe we can find someone better that can get us to that 1 more win a year record. The program is not in bad enough shape for us to take a large risk on an unknown. So, for me, it took me a while to sort out my feelings. I'd been one of Gus's biggest defenders at times, but I was also the guy that started the "fire gus" thread after the UGA game. But, finally I figured it out. I don't believe C is plausible either. I've defend Gus not because I like gus, but because I have yet to see someone throw out a name to replace him that is likely enough from a cost-benefit ratio to replace him. 

In the case of your post, I could see a real scenario where he comes here and wins that extra game (or maybe even 2) a year. But I see it as more likely that he sends the program in the other directly. And that's what I've seen with a lot of the coaching replacement suggestions. There's too much risk and not enough probability of reward if they work out. That's personally my hold up firing Gus. I'm waiting on someone to say, "If we hire X, there's a large chance we'll do better." Instead, what I've seen is a lot of unproven names thrown out.

My thoughts put another way... To me, Gus isn't doing enough for me to be satisfied with him as our coach, but he isn't doing badly enough to risk replacing him with a high risk hire. So, Gus either needs to do worse, or we need to find a low risk hire. For me, I'm pulling apart qualifications of coaches because I think the risk factors are important because they are an indication of how risky the hire is. If we replace Gus, the person can't be a risky hire.

[WalkingCarpet 1,139]

31 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

There is really just two tiers. Alabama, LSU, UGA, UF. And then everyone else. LOL Vandy has beaten UGA as much as Auburn has over the last 16 years. 3 wins in 16 tries. . 

Pretty sure Vandy has won in Athens more recently than we have too. Actually, they've won twice in Athens since the last time we did it.