Playing what if

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

As long as there is light at the end of the tunnel for this team, we’ll continue to look at what needs to happen for this team to reach postseason play. 
 

Auburn is 17-20 overall and 3-15 in the SEC. They’ll need to get extremely hot down the stretch here to make the NCAA Tournament. But what does that look like? 
 

In the last few seasons, more and more SEC teams are sneaking their way into the NCAA Tournament with conference records below .500. It has pretty much become a given that a 13-17 SEC team with a good RPI and 30+ wins will make the tournament. This is down from what used to be seemingly the law of 15-15 or no tournament. 
 

I’ve wondered the last few seasons when the first year a 12-18 team in the SEC making the NCAA Tournament will be. Personally, I believe that year is coming. It may not be this year, but I do think that with how incredibly difficult the league has become, we are going to see the qualifications lower even further for an SEC team. 
 

With this in mind, let’s say Auburn does just that: they get hot, pick up some confidence, sweep a team, and get to that 12-18 mark. 
 

Assuming Auburn takes care of the midweekers, that would leave the Tigers sitting at 29-23 overall and 12-18 in the SEC, likely with an RPI somewhere in the 40’s, and a top 15 SOS. 
 

My question to you is what would Auburn need to do in Hoover to give themselves a shot at convincing the committee they deserve to be in the tournament? 
 

Remember, Auburn has already beaten Texas A&M once this season, so the committee will see that as an SEC win, and likely consider Auburn a 13-18 SEC team. 
 

What would a team with this resume need to do in Hoover to prove they belong in the NCAA Tourney?

(**Note: I know this is hypothetical and seems unlikely with the way the team has performed this season, but it’s fun to theorize.***) 

[Mikey 16,566]

Hard to say. Win 3? So much depends on what other teams across the country do.

[au302 2,669]

They'd need to win at least two, but probably three and maybe four to feel comfortable. I've always figured if an SEC team can get to 14 conference wins including Hoover, they will have a good shot to get in, even if it's a 3 seed. 

[boomstick 1,315]

2 wins in Hoover would give you 15 total SEC wins. What's going to hurt us is, if we make a run at the end, the run will come against the bottom of the barrel in the SEC. And if were 15 total wins, at least ten of those would come against really weak teams. The win against Arkansas and Florida would be helpful, but we really needed a series win against a quality opponent and won't have that. 

I just don't see much way for us to get into a regional without winning the SECT or, at the very least, getting into the final.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

1 hour ago, boomstick said:

2 wins in Hoover would give you 15 total SEC wins. What's going to hurt us is, if we make a run at the end, the run will come against the bottom of the barrel in the SEC. And if were 15 total wins, at least ten of those would come against really weak teams. The win against Arkansas and Florida would be helpful, but we really needed a series win against a quality opponent and won't have that. 

I just don't see much way for us to get into a regional without winning the SECT or, at the very least, getting into the final.

I think series wins over Georgia and LSU will be looked upon favorably at year's end. Also important to remember Auburn (if they win the last three) would be undefeated in midweek non-conference play. Doesn't sound like much, but a lot of teams are looked down upon when their midweek record is poor. This would show the committee a well-rounded team rather than just a strong weekend rotation. SOS will be very high too. 

[AUBwins 10,071]

If really digging into it, we probably have the most 1 run losses in the country which shows a team that can compete with most.  We at least know that a lot of those were leads until the last few innings. Can we ever get over the hump and win those games? 

[tigers23 648]

😂😂

[AUGoo 2,659]

Don't.

Only frustrates me more.

Edited April 30, 2021 by AUGoo

[steeleagle 2,945]

5 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

I think series wins over Georgia and LSU will be looked upon favorably at year's end. Also important to remember Auburn (if they win the last three) would be undefeated in midweek non-conference play. Doesn't sound like much, but a lot of teams are looked down upon when their midweek record is poor. This would show the committee a well-rounded team rather than just a strong weekend rotation. SOS will be very high too. 

Got to win that first series game but tonight another loss. Couldn’t even score. 
but a reliever gives up GS. Game over. 

[Randman5000 4,226]

Well this season blows

[Mikey 16,566]

We simply cannot catch a damn break! Sometimes we are our own worst enemy but it's also true that Dame Fortune simply will not smile on this year's team.

[steeleagle 2,945]

12 hours ago, Mikey said:

We simply cannot catch a damn break! Sometimes we are our own worst enemy but it's also true that Dame Fortune simply will not smile on this year's team.

Did u mean 'Dam Fortune'?

 

[fredst 9,064]

Some teams find ways to win. Some teams find ways to lose. Unfortunately, this team seems to be the latter. The talent is there and injuries have certainly played a role but this team just cannot get it done.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

1 hour ago, fredst said:

Some teams find ways to win. Some teams find ways to lose. Unfortunately, this team seems to be the latter. The talent is there and injuries have certainly played a role but this team just cannot get it done.

Yep. Think the bullpen is plenty talented enough to compete in the SEC. Think it's got to be more of a confidence thing than anything. 

 

At some point, you've gotta sack up and make the pitches. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Here’s the deal right now: Auburn has to win the series in Georgia for the scenario laid out in this post to even be remotely possible. They’re tied at 3 going to the 7th right now. If a turn around will happen, right now is the time. It must happen now. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

4 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Here’s the deal right now: Auburn has to win the series in Georgia for the scenario laid out in this post to even be remotely possible. They’re tied at 3 going to the 7th right now. If a turn around will happen, right now is the time. It must happen now. 

Final: AU 10, UGA 6.

Postseason hopes remain alive. 
 

Believe we’ve got one last gas here at the end to go for broke and win a bunch of games. Going to take some serious mental toughness by this team, but they certainly don’t quit. The schedule is set up to do it. It all starts with the rubber game against UGA. Gotta get a win tomorrow, then you’ve got to go one game at a time and treat it like a super regional elimination game. You throw whoever you can/pinch run whoever you need to in order to win one day. The next day is figure it out day. Can’t afford to hold anything back for later. You must take big risks now and hope they pay off. Only way this team can get hot and make the NCAA. It’s possible, and tonight was a great way to get it going if it’s going to happen.

One last gas. Give it all you got Tigers. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Well, how about that?

Auburn takes 2 of 3 from Georgia and finally looked like a team that could get over the hump this weekend, although that ninth inning was super frustrating yet again.

Essentially, Auburn has put themselves back in position to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. It is going to be difficult, but now with a top 25 road series win, and single wins over top 25 programs Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Florida, and Alabama, Auburn will have a fine resume if they can get to 13-17 in the league. In fact, going 13-17 would give them a 14-17 record against the SEC due to the earlier win against TAMU.

How possible is this? LSU, TAMU, and Missouri are a combined 16-44 in the SEC. Auburn will need to go 8-1 in these last nine games, but if there are any three to do it against, it is these three teams. 
 

Could Auburn still make the tournament at 12-18 (actually 13-18)? That would likely depend on how the Tigers perform in Hoover. IMO, 2 wins there ought to give the Tigers at least a shot at it. 3 wins at the tournament would probably put that likelihood up over 50%. 
 

It’s all in front of Auburn, and this season can still be a special one, the team just has to catch fire. This weekend was a great start. 

[boomstick 1,315]

Looking at the standings, we need at least 7 wins and some teams in front of us to come back to us. There are already 10 teams with at least 10 SEC wins. Unless something crazy happens and they take an 11th team and we’re able to get to 13 wins before the SECT, I just don’t see it happening without passing someone currently ahead of us.  
 

Right now, every team in the East except Mizzou would be in, and the top 4 in the West would be in. We’d need to make a big run and have a Bama or UGA or UK fall apart in the last three series. With their upcoming schedules, it’s possible. 
 

Bama: at Vandy, at LSU, Miss St

UGA: at Arkansas, at Florida, Ole Miss

UK: Florida, South Carolina, at Vandy

LSU: at Auburn, Bama, at Texas A&M

Given who those teams play, there’s a chance to get into that pack with those other teams if we handle our business. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

15 hours ago, boomstick said:

Looking at the standings, we need at least 7 wins and some teams in front of us to come back to us. There are already 10 teams with at least 10 SEC wins. Unless something crazy happens and they take an 11th team and we’re able to get to 13 wins before the SECT, I just don’t see it happening without passing someone currently ahead of us.  
 

Right now, every team in the East except Mizzou would be in, and the top 4 in the West would be in. We’d need to make a big run and have a Bama or UGA or UK fall apart in the last three series. With their upcoming schedules, it’s possible. 
 

Bama: at Vandy, at LSU, Miss St

UGA: at Arkansas, at Florida, Ole Miss

UK: Florida, South Carolina, at Vandy

LSU: at Auburn, Bama, at Texas A&M

Given who those teams play, there’s a chance to get into that pack with those other teams if we handle our business. 

Yep, things will even out. Remember, Auburn has one of the only wins against an SEC team that didn’t count towards SEC standings (TAMU). This is taken into account within the committee. 
 

I could see UGA dropping all 3 of those series and ending tied with us, but us getting the nod with a series win. 
 

LSU may not totally fall apart, but if AU can beat them, they are easily catchable, and a series win would give AU the nod. I just don’t think you can completely count Auburn out yet.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

An update:

 

Auburn Tigers NCAA Tournament Resume:

Overall Record: 19-21

SEC Record: 5-16

RPI: 57

SOS: 6

 

The good news? Auburn controls their own destiny for the NCAA Tournament (in my humble opinion). 

 

If AU can somehow get to 13-17, the RPi would be taken care of, and likely in the top 40. 

The SOS will be top 10, and Auburn would have somewhere in the neighborhood of 28-32 wins depending on the number of midweekers Auburn plays to close the year.

 

Winning will take care of everything. Now is the time!

[steeleagle 2,945]

23 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

An update:

 

Auburn Tigers NCAA Tournament Resume:

Overall Record: 19-21

SEC Record: 5-16

RPI: 57

SOS: 6

 

The good news? Auburn controls their own destiny for the NCAA Tournament (in my humble opinion). 

 

If AU can somehow get to 13-17, the RPi would be taken care of, and likely in the top 40. 

The SOS will be top 10, and Auburn would have somewhere in the neighborhood of 28-32 wins depending on the number of midweekers Auburn plays to close the year.

 

Winning will take care of everything. Now is the time!

8-4 the rest of the way? Mmmmm.

That's a true stretch of hope. After this weekend if we take 2 or sweep, then I will agree we have righted the ship. 

But i just don't see the bullpen coming around unless our starters can go deep enough to rely on only a few of our best relievers being needed...

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Just now, steeleagle said:

8-4 the rest of the way? Mmmmm.

That's a true stretch of hope. After this weekend if we take 2 or sweep, then I will agree we have righted the ship. 

But i just don't see the bullpen coming around unless our starters can go deep enough to rely on only a few of our best relievers being needed...

I agree it's a difficult task and we haven't quite seen consistency yet. I'm just putting it out there that Auburn can get hot and still make the tournament. They're going to need to treat every game like a tournament and go balls out for a win every day. Gonna have to take some risk with pitchers and pinch runners IMO. No more saving guys for later games. It's whoever can get you outs now.