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Blue Chip Ratio


Beaker

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I first heard about the analysis last year where a team needs a certain % of blue chip players (4* and 5* only - I think) to compete at high enough level to win a NC.   I understand Auburn has been there for a few yrs and of course when you consider our on the field performance, we understand why Gus is not here.

 

Now, it's great to have a high % of those blue chip players and we all know, they have to well distributed on the roster and they have to developed AND they have to be used in a scheme to exploit their talent.  Auburn has failed at that for several years.

I point that out to ask,  with Harsin's blue collar, "we are going to develop 'our kinda guys' "  mentality, what will our blue chip % be in a couple of years?  I understand this staff is extremely 'tight to the vest' about recruiting and we don't know a whole lot.    Harsin is not an idiot and knows he needs more talent than he ever sniffed at Boise to win week in and week out.  I got the feeling Tubs always recruited mid pack in the SEC and developed players very well (until his last couple of yrs).  Are we to expect that approach again?

My concern is that they write off this year (lack of relationships and so far behind as a 'new staff') and we get into a bad spot long term.   Can we bridge the gap with transfers next yr? 

Has Brian and Boise Boys had a class on Southern Culture so they can talk to families in AL and GA?   I say that tongue and cheek, sorta, maybe.   Ok I am serious,  they need a class.  We are different and that is a good thing, but  also very real. 

 

I am not worried, just wondering what folks think.   

 

(And don't give me this Saban came from Mich to LA and had to recruit at LSU/bama.  LSU owns the state and eastern TX.  I could recruit at LSU and I can't spell LSU.     And saban had won a NC before he went to the turds).  

"Thanks coach for taking my call; I will hang up and listen."

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15 hours ago, Beaker said:

I point that out to ask,  with Harsin's blue collar, "we are going to develop 'our kinda guys' "  mentality, what will our blue chip % be in a couple of years?

My opinion: UGA and UAT have rosters loaded with 5 stars, and LSU isn’t far behind. They are likely always going to ‘out blue-chip’ us. What we have to do is stay in the ‘top 12’ recruiting zone (which our previous staff did) and develop the heck out of kids (which our previous staff didn’t do). We are obviously way out of the top 12 zone right now but our staff has had just over 4 weeks with face to face recruiting. What people keep overlooking is multiple solid transfers with 3-4 years eligibility. Those players aren’t going to show up on the recruiting rankings and I don’t care. Those players will be ready to contribute in Happy Valley in September. I believe we will start getting some commitments soon and long term this staff will more than hold their own. And don’t forget, Bobo, Friend, and Caddy are SEC recruiting ready. 

Edited by Gowebb11
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15 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

 What people keep overlooking is multiple solid transfers with 3-4 years eligibility. Those players aren’t going to show up on the recruiting rankings and I don’t care. Those players will be ready to contribute in Happy Valley in September. I believe we will start getting some commitments soon and long term this staff will more than hold their own. And don’t forget, Bobo, Friend, and Caddy are SEC recruiting ready. 

Yeah, those transfers will be huge contributors for us relative to a high school player gearing up for his senior season in high school.    I overlook that most have 4 yrs eligibility.   Great point.   And TJ Finley may not play much this season, but could become the most valuable of all the transfers (long term). 

But I still wonder if a 'blue collar:' we are going to be mean and outwork the other guy team mantra  allow the prime recruiters to land the elite recruits.  I am not saying Gus had a lot of sizzle, but  I wonder if Harsin  can 'seal the deal' with some 5* or elite 4* kids besides the QB we have..

Now another great point:  the QB is a gem!   Big kid, big arm and now in the elite 11 in Cali.   We need to land some OL so he has confidence in our staff.  

 

 

For all: 

So, the question still stands:  will Harsin be more like Tubs or Gus, as a recruiter? 

 

Edited by Beaker
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On 7/3/2021 at 8:13 AM, Beaker said:

Yeah, those transfers will be huge contributors for us relative to a high school player gearing up for his senior season in high school.    I overlook that most have 4 yrs eligibility.   Great point.   And TJ Finley may not play much this season, but could become the most valuable of all the transfers (long term). 

But I still wonder if a 'blue collar:' we are going to be mean and outwork the other guy team mantra  allow the prime recruiters to land the elite recruits.  I am not saying Gus had a lot of sizzle, but  I wonder if Harsin  can 'seal the deal' with some 5* or elite 4* kids besides the QB we have..

Now another great point:  the QB is a gem!   Big kid, big arm and now in the elite 11 in Cali.   We need to land some OL so he has confidence in our staff.  

 

 

For all: 

So, the question still stands:  will Harsin be more like Tubs or Gus, as a recruiter? 

 

i imagine harsins mindset is kinda like the military. they could care less who you are in boot camp. they are going to tear you down and retrain you in a lot of things. they get a team of men and get them all laser focused. tubs they say took mostly a bunch of three stars and coached em up. gus i think was hit or miss. he left us with some nice pieces and also some glaring weaknesses. i am also not sure how well some players were coached up. many think it was a weakness. i think coach harsin is the right guy at the right time. i do however believe that if coach tanks we will still be in a better place than we were. so i am saying i think harsin will get it right but i am not sure how big of a learning curve there is. and it probably does not matter to many but i bet coach dye would be thrilled with the hire.

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6 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

i imagine harsins mindset is kinda like the military.

i do however believe that if coach tanks we will still be in a better place than we were.

so i am saying i think harsin will get it right but i am not sure how big of a learning curve there is. and it probably does not matter to many but i bet coach dye would be thrilled with the hire.

I agree with your first point above.   

Let's not break this down (2nd point above); I am a glass half full guy.

3rd point -  big learning curve and yes, Coach Dye is smiling on this culture change.   I hope Harsin can blend old school with new school and attract the talent level needed to win. 

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2 hours ago, Beaker said:

I agree with your first point above.   

Let's not break this down (2nd point above); I am a glass half full guy.

3rd point -  big learning curve and yes, Coach Dye is smiling on this culture change.   I hope Harsin can blend old school with new school and attract the talent level needed to win. 

i remember when folks were shocked when coach dye was picked. then he gave that sixty mins speech concerning bama. i think we have another coach dye who will get this team into shape with hard work. but i am just a fan and certainly no expert.

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7 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

i remember when folks were shocked when coach dye was picked. then he gave that sixty mins speech concerning bama. i think we have another coach dye who will get this team into shape with hard work. but i am just a fan and certainly no expert.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but yeah the Dye hire was kinda out of left field.   He had the resume, but was not on anyone's radar because of his HC record.  T Bowden  was kinda the same way: had pedigree (not a great HC resume), swagger and respect for Auburn and not on anyone's radar.  

Dye built a program and legacy while  Bowden couldn't balance his emotions vs his intellectual IQ.   So we were one for one.   (I give Bowden more credit than most - he was the right man for the job when hired, but couldn't stay focused strategically).

Harsin has the pedigree, resume and HC  record to build upon what Dye did for sure.  I have a real great  feeling about Harsin, but keeping Coach Mason is my concern (lack of continuity). 

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23 hours ago, Beaker said:

So, the question still stands:  will Harsin be more like Tubs or Gus, as a recruiter? 

If those are the only two options, I think he's going to be more like Tubs...but I don't expect us to be mid-pack in the SEC, at least not for more than another year or two. Recruiting rankings were just getting started when Tubs was at Auburn, and I question how much harder it is to find under-the-radar guys that can be developed than it was when our current US senator was head coach. If I recall, Tuberville was big on recruiting mostly the guys who attended his camps. 

Personally, if I had to compare what I think Harsin's recruiting style will be to other coaches, I'd say he's more like Dabo Swinney than anyone I've tracked recruiting for at Auburn. He's being selective, going after the guys that he wants, not just best available talent (though I'm hoping that the two are going to coincide frequently as time goes on).

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40 minutes ago, Beaker said:

Dye built a program and legacy while  Bowden couldn't balance his emotions vs his intellectual IQ.   So we were one for one.   (I give Bowden more credit than most - he was the right man for the job when hired, but couldn't stay focused strategically).

Not really on topic here, but I think Bowden would have been best suited to be Dye's offensive coordinator. I understand why that couldn't happen, I think, more than just that he was a head coach already and would likely not accept an assistant's position, but I think a lot of Bowden's success was due to Dye, who remained close to the program after retiring, remember. I mean, he was in the locker room half the time during the AttitUde tape that I had to have watched a thousand times growing up.

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3 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Not really on topic here, but I think Bowden would have been best suited to be Dye's offensive coordinator. I understand why that couldn't happen, I think, more than just that he was a head coach already and would likely not accept an assistant's position, but I think a lot of Bowden's success was due to Dye, who remained close to the program after retiring, remember. I mean, he was in the locker room half the time during the AttitUde tape that I had to have watched a thousand times growing up.

I agree. Bowden was a great x's and o's kind of coach, and could find ways to execute a successful offense. His downfall was his ego and his lack of recruiting prowess or push. Kind of like Lebo was in basketball. I thought he was good with basketball execution on the court, but he couldn't translate into enough wins bc his recruiting was definiitely subpar. 

Still got to have some throughbreds to go with those plow horses on any football or basketball team. :)

 

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12 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i remember when folks were shocked when coach dye was picked. then he gave that sixty mins speech concerning bama. i think we have another coach dye who will get this team into shape with hard work. but i am just a fan and certainly no expert.

Your last statement fits for all us on this board (whether we know it or not).

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14 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i remember when folks were shocked when coach dye was picked

At that time, I was still plugged in very well at AU. I knew somebody who was in the room at the interviews. He told me that Pat Dye was by far the most impressive candidate, interview-wise. My friend didn't much like the idea because of Dye's background at UGA and UAT. When I saw him after Dye was hired, he just shrugged and said they'd hired the best applicant. It wasn't close enough for even much discussion.

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On 7/4/2021 at 9:39 AM, aubiefifty said:

i imagine harsins mindset is kinda like the military. they could care less who you are in boot camp. they are going to tear you down and retrain you in a lot of things. they get a team of men and get them all laser focused. tubs they say took mostly a bunch of three stars and coached em up. gus i think was hit or miss. he left us with some nice pieces and also some glaring weaknesses. i am also not sure how well some players were coached up. many think it was a weakness. i think coach harsin is the right guy at the right time. i do however believe that if coach tanks we will still be in a better place than we were. so i am saying i think harsin will get it right but i am not sure how big of a learning curve there is. and it probably does not matter to many but i bet coach dye would be thrilled with the hire.

Of the offensive contributors on Tubs’ 2004 team there were more top 30 national recruits than there were 3 stars. As Tubs’ recruiting slipped the on field results followed. 

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On 7/6/2021 at 9:31 PM, Dunndone414 said:

Of the offensive contributors on Tubs’ 2004 team there were more top 30 national recruits than there were 3 stars. As Tubs’ recruiting slipped the on field results followed. 

This is true everywhere. Idk why people still think it is not the case. The teams with the best players are the teams winning - unless your coach is a moron. Some coaches coach them up better than others, but even those aren't winning championships with a bunch of 3* players.

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