2022 Class Projections & Class Numbers

[Zeek 16,643]

Understanding the 2022 class starts by looking at the 2021 class and how it panned out. The Auburn faithful know full well the amount if drama surrounding the end of an all-SEC schedule where we moved on from a coach that left a rather unimpressive recruiting class behind. Sitting in the 40s with current commits not certain to stick there was a lot of pressure to get a staff together and finish strong in recruiting. Harsin prioritized putting a staff together in his own timeframe and still managed to finish 19th in recruiting nationally and 7th in the SEC. A decent finish considering seven of our signees didn't contribute to the class ranking (transfers and one roll-over from the previous year).

This becomes all the more impressive when considering how the different 25 scholarship spots were used:

1. 4* Lee Hunter, DT
2. 4* Ahmari Harvey, S
3. 4* Dematrius Davis, QB
4. 4* Dylan Brooks, Edge
5. 4* Marquis Robinson, DL
6. 3* Hal Presley, WR, has since transferred to Baylor due to being "home sick and missing his girlfriend"
7. 3* Landen King, TE
8. 3* Garner Langlo, OT
9. 3* Kamal Hadden, CB, JuCo product that has since transferred to Tennessee
10. 3* Tar'varish Dawson, ATH, signed as WR could play DB
11. 3* Tobechi Okoli, DL
12. 3* Colby Smith, OT
13. 3* Juwon Gaston
14. 3* Ian Matthews, DL
15. 3* Jarquez Hunter, RB
16. 3* Joko Willis, LB, JuCo product with 4 years still to play
17. 3* Armani Diamond, CB
18. 3* Cayden Bridges, S
19. Oscar Chapman, P, Australian product who joined in 2020 but counts towards 2021
20. 3* Grant Calcaterra, TE, Technically signed with Auburn before landing elsewhere but still counts against this class
21. 3* Andrew Eku Leota, Edge, transferred from Northwestern 3 years to play
22. 4* Dreshun Miller, CB, transferred from West Virginia 2 years to play
23. 3* Tony Fair, NT, transferred from UAB 1 year to play
24. NR Bydarrius Knighten, S, transferred from Southeast Missouri State 1 year to play
25. 3* Donovan Kaufman, S, transferred from Vanderbilt 4 years to play

Additionally the staff has brought in the following recruits that will count towards the 2022 recruiting class (remember the total number of new additions is 25):

1. 3* Marcus Harris, DE, transferred from Kansas, 4 years to play
2. 3* TJ Finley, QB, transferred from LSU, 4 years to play
3. 3* Jordon Ingram, RB, transferred from CMU, 4 years to play
4. 5* Demetris Robertson, WR, transferred from UGA, 1 year to play

That leaves us with 21 spots to fill in the 2022 class before taking into account high school commits which we now have:

1. 4* Holden Geriner, QB
2. 3* Micah Riley-Ducker, TE
3. 3* Jarell Stinson, CB
4. 3* Powell Gordon, LB
5. 3* Caleb Wooden, S, some believe he may fill out into a LB
6. 3* Alex McPherson, K

Currently we're ranked 70th nationally (with McPherson's rating not adding to the total until ESPN and Rivals rank him) and 14th in the SEC. However, our average rating of .8803 (brought down by McPherson's lack of a rating) puts us at 21st nationally. Also, for reference, .9 is the threshold for a 4* player.

Here are the players I'm going out a limb to say will round out our remaining 15 spots:

1. 4* Darrius Clemons, WR
2. 4* Caden Story, DE
3. 4* Tre Donaldson, S
4. 4* Damari Alston, RB
5. 3* Laquan Robinson, DB
6. 3* Eston Harris Jr. , OT
7. 3* Maxie Baudoin IV, DL
8. 3* Jay Fair, WR
9. 3* Micah Pollard, LB
10. 3* Quinshon Judkins, RB
11. 3* Drew Bobo, OG
12. Transfer or JuCo OT TBD
13. Transfer or JuCo IOL TBD
14. Unknown High School LB
15. Unknown High School OL

Obviously there's a lot of ambiguity still left with the last few spots probably not being filled until maybe even after signing day. However, with the above named players our class would currently be 10th place nationally (granted other teams will add players too).

[oracle79 3,569]

Do you think we add all 15 spots with HS players or save some for transfers/juco or to back count from 2023 early enrollees which should be a better class for us with HS players?

[DAG 33,964]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

Harsin prioritized putting a staff together in his own timeframe and still managed to finish 19th in recruiting nationally

This can’t be overlooked and very impressive 

[Zeek 16,643]

Just now, DAG said:

This can’t be overlooked and very impressive 

Yup, some posters put me in my place (needs to happen from time to time) when I was griping about recruiting and how he was taking too long. Definitely rather get it right and suffer some 2021 losses than someone who isn't the best for us from 2022 onward.

That being said, I'm still so happy with how the Eason situation panned out. I think we see the benefits of that in the 2023 recruiting class. 

[Zeek 16,643]

13 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

Do you think we add all 15 spots with HS players or save some for transfers/juco or to back count from 2023 early enrollees which should be a better class for us with HS players?

I don't think we try to back count but I'm not 100% sure. Harsin's win-now approach makes me believe he wants the sure thing now and not the potential of more later..

Merits to both approaches but in the coaching world I'm sure they don't take for granted that they'll even be here by 2023 lol.

I will say this. I hope we cap ourselves at 25 and don't eat up some of the 2023 spots with transfers unless there's someone too good to pass up.

What's making things wild to predict is the instant transfer and bonus pandemic year. Transfers with 3-4 years left to play who have been in college a year or two have to seem more enticing than a high school kid. It's easier to evaluate Marcus Harris playing in a Power 5 conference than it is Maxie Baudoin IV playing high school ball in Louisiana.

[gravejd 3,270]

Just want to say awesome post!!! And you are either very brave or very stupid to predict the class in July 

[Zeek 16,643]

18 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Just want to say awesome post!!! And you are either very brave or very stupid to predict the class in July 

My wife says stupid. My wrestlers say brave. My students say a little bit of both.

[steeleagle 2,945]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

My wife says stupid. My wrestlers say brave. My students say a little bit of both.

In other words... "You got both ends covered".

Curious with your Eason comment. I am too very sold on Eason in just his personality and character(and i'm a little biased since he played for my Steelers too).

But what gives you such a positive on his recruiting/coaching for Auburn? I haven't seen anything concrete yet, but it is early...

[toddc 13,194]

20 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

In other words... "You got both ends covered".

Curious with your Eason comment. I am too very sold on Eason in just his personality and character(and i'm a little biased since he played for my Steelers too).

But what gives you such a positive on his recruiting/coaching for Auburn? I haven't seen anything concrete yet, but it is early...

I think anytime recruits can talk to an NFL coach and player it’s a great selling point, along with his personality.

[Zeek 16,643]

1 hour ago, steeleagle said:

In other words... "You got both ends covered".

Curious with your Eason comment. I am too very sold on Eason in just his personality and character(and i'm a little biased since he played for my Steelers too).

But what gives you such a positive on his recruiting/coaching for Auburn? I haven't seen anything concrete yet, but it is early...

Lots of player interviews mention him incredibly positively. The 2023 kids he's already bonding with are huge names. Just think he's better than the guy who bailed on us (who develops well but hasn't really recruited well).

Plus, I'm not a fan of re-treads. It's cool to keep staff members but I'm not a fan of going back to someone. Try something new.

[AUwent 3,747]

6 hours ago, Zeek said:

Understanding the 2022 class starts by looking at the 2021 class and how it panned out. The Auburn faithful know full well the amount if drama surrounding the end of an all-SEC schedule where we moved on from a coach that left a rather unimpressive recruiting class behind. Sitting in the 40s with current commits not certain to stick there was a lot of pressure to get a staff together and finish strong in recruiting. Harsin prioritized putting a staff together in his own timeframe and still managed to finish 19th in recruiting nationally and 7th in the SEC. A decent finish considering seven of our signees didn't contribute to the class ranking (transfers and one roll-over from the previous year).

This becomes all the more impressive when considering how the different 25 scholarship spots were used:

1. 4* Lee Hunter, DT
2. 4* Ahmari Harvey, S
3. 4* Dematrius Davis, QB
4. 4* Dylan Brooks, Edge
5. 4* Marquis Robinson, DL
6. 3* Hal Presley, WR, has since transferred to Baylor due to being "home sick and missing his girlfriend"
7. 3* Landen King, TE
8. 3* Garner Langlo, OT
9. 3* Kamal Hadden, CB, JuCo product that has since transferred to Tennessee
10. 3* Tar'varish Dawson, ATH, signed as WR could play DB
11. 3* Tobechi Okoli, DL
12. 3* Colby Smith, OT
13. 3* Juwon Gaston
14. 3* Ian Matthews, DL
15. 3* Jarquez Hunter, RB
16. 3* Joko Willis, LB, JuCo product with 4 years still to play
17. 3* Armani Diamond, CB
18. 3* Cayden Bridges, S
19. Oscar Chapman, P, Australian product who joined in 2020 but counts towards 2021
20. 3* Grant Calcaterra, TE, Technically signed with Auburn before landing elsewhere but still counts against this class
21. 3* Andrew Eku Leota, Edge, transferred from Northwestern 3 years to play
22. 4* Dreshun Miller, CB, transferred from West Virginia 2 years to play
23. 3* Tony Fair, NT, transferred from UAB 1 year to play
24. NR Bydarrius Knighten, S, transferred from Southeast Missouri State 1 year to play
25. 3* Donovan Kaufman, S, transferred from Vanderbilt 4 years to play

Additionally the staff has brought in the following recruits that will count towards the 2022 recruiting class (remember the total number of new additions is 25):

1. 3* Marcus Harris, DE, transferred from Kansas, 4 years to play
2. 3* TJ Finley, QB, transferred from LSU, 4 years to play
3. 3* Jordon Ingram, RB, transferred from CMU, 4 years to play
4. 5* Demetris Robertson, WR, transferred from UGA, 1 year to play

That leaves us with 21 spots to fill in the 2022 class before taking into account high school commits which we now have:

1. 4* Holden Geriner, QB
2. 3* Micah Riley-Ducker, TE
3. 3* Jarell Stinson, CB
4. 3* Powell Gordon, LB
5. 3* Caleb Wooden, S, some believe he may fill out into a LB
6. 3* Alex McPherson, K

Currently we're ranked 70th nationally (with McPherson's rating not adding to the total until ESPN and Rivals rank him) and 14th in the SEC. However, our average rating of .8803 (brought down by McPherson's lack of a rating) puts us at 21st nationally. Also, for reference, .9 is the threshold for a 4* player.

Here are the players I'm going out a limb to say will round out our remaining 15 spots:

1. 4* Darrius Clemons, WR
2. 4* Caden Story, DE
3. 4* Tre Donaldson, S
4. 4* Damari Alston, RB
5. 3* Laquan Robinson, DB
6. 3* Eston Harris Jr. , OT
7. 3* Maxie Baudoin IV, DL
8. 3* Jay Fair, WR
9. 3* Micah Pollard, LB
10. 3* Quinshon Judkins, RB
11. 3* Drew Bobo, OG
12. Transfer or JuCo OT TBD
13. Transfer or JuCo IOL TBD
14. Unknown High School LB
15. Unknown High School OL

Obviously there's a lot of ambiguity still left with the last few spots probably not being filled until maybe even after signing day. However, with the above named players our class would currently be 10th place nationally (granted other teams will add players too).

What would our "average" ranking be? Because that's likely closer to how we would finish since as you say, other tams will add players. I would say right now we're probably in line to finish in at least the top 30 based on "average" rankings (we're currently 28th in that category).

The mood here seems much better than the mood on Rant. Tryyyyyying not to agree with them...

Edited July 9, 2021 by AUwent

[Zeek 16,643]

22 minutes ago, AUwent said:

What would our "average" ranking be? Because that's likely closer to how we would finish since as you say, other tams will add players. I would say right now we're probably in line to finish in at least the top 30 based on "average" rankings (we're currently 28th in that category).

The mood here seems much better than the mood on Rant. Tryyyyyying not to agree with them...

I haven't sniffed the Rant in a long time. They're wildly negative in general. 247 is right in the middle but trending towards optimism.

Keith Niehbur seems incredibly confident we finish top 20 at the very least which is a win in my book.

OL recruiting is disappointing if I'm being blunt but trying to give the benefit of the doubt.

[au302 2,669]

The o-line recruiting for this cycle has already turned depressing. Hate to be negative because I know our overall class will be ok, but I was hoping we'd get 3 high school Ot's, and looks like Harris is the only one right now. Gotta hope Colby Smith and Zierer are ready to go or that there are some quality guys in the portal and Juco

[AUwent 3,747]

8 minutes ago, Zeek said:

I haven't sniffed the Rant in a long time. They're wildly negative in general. 247 is right in the middle but trending towards optimism.

Keith Niehbur seems incredibly confident we finish top 20 at the very least which is a win in my book.

OL recruiting is disappointing if I'm being blunt but trying to give the benefit of the doubt.

Yes. 2022 I'll happily take a top 20 class however we can get it. 2023 class we need some HAWGS. The expectations will and should be much higher between a full cycle without restrictions (god willing) and the facility opening.

Edited July 9, 2021 by AUwent

[Zeek 16,643]

Just now, AUwent said:

Yes. 2022 I'll happily take a top 20 class however we can get it. 2023 we need some HAWGS.

2023 should be top 15 expectations minimum. After that we need to be in the top 10-11. We don't have any 2023 commits yet (no surprise) but the visits and reviews so far by legitimate 5* players are really solid.

 

[AUwent 3,747]

4 minutes ago, Zeek said:

2023 should be top 15 expectations minimum. After that we need to be in the top 10-11. We don't have any 2023 commits yet (no surprise) but the visits and reviews so far by legitimate 5* players are really solid.

 

2023 I would take top 11-15 territory IF the class were carried by some elite OTs.

Edited July 9, 2021 by AUwent

[Zeek 16,643]

Just now, AUwent said:

2023 I would take top 15 IF the class were carried by some elite OTs.

247 and other recruiting sites have to start factoring transfers into the class calculations as well. We could easily finish outside of the top 20 this year just because of the sheer number of guys who don't contribute to the class ranking. TJ Finley value wise is huge but doesn't boost the class (as are Fair, Knighten, Miller, and a few others who will get starting reps).

[AUwent 3,747]

13 minutes ago, Zeek said:

247 and other recruiting sites have to start factoring transfers into the class calculations as well. We could easily finish outside of the top 20 this year just because of the sheer number of guys who don't contribute to the class ranking. TJ Finley value wise is huge but doesn't boost the class (as are Fair, Knighten, Miller, and a few others who will get starting reps).

Wasn't that guy we got from WV counted?

But, if KN says we finish in top 20, that makes me feel a bit better.

Edited July 10, 2021 by AUwent

[Zeek 16,643]

11 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Wasn't that guy we got from WV counted?

But, if KN says we finish in top 20, that makes me feel a bit better.

The Auburn 247 Facebook page doesn't get updated a whole lot buttt the live streams with Keith are super informative