Bama Hammer claims AU has “downward trend in talent”

[aubiefifty 16,761]

flywareagle.com

Auburn football: Bama Hammer claims AU has “downward trend in talent”

Mary Kate Hughes

3-4 minutes

This year is set to be a rebuilding season for the Auburn football team. After a mediocre 6-5 season and several years of recruiting neglect in certain positions, it’s clear to everyone that new head coach Bryan Harsin will have to prove himself in the SEC before he can truly dig into the high school recruiting scene.

Well, clear to almost everyone. Rival FanSided site Bama Hammer claims that the past several years of recruiting alongside Bryan Harsin’s work on the recruiting trail this year indicate that the Tigers will fail to compete with Alabama in the coming years and go on a losing streak similar to the one the Tide suffered through from 2002-2007:

No matter what happens in Auburn’s so-far, bleak 2022 class, a downward trend in player talent has been established. The disparity between the Tide and Tigers programs could lead to a calamitous Auburn losing streak.

Recruiting relationships are built over time and last for years. It would be unrealistic for Bryan Harsin to be going after all of the 5-star recruits that have had Nick Saban in their ears since they were freshmen in high school, and he’ll have to prove himself with the Auburn football this year in order to be able to recruit on that level.

However, Harsin and co. have managed to pull the Tigers’ class of 2021 up to the No. 19 spot in the nation, and No. 7 in the SEC. Harsin has also used the NCAA transfer portal to bring in more talent to the roster, but according to Bama Hammer those players will be unable to compete at a high level:

So far the problem for Harsin is the players he is getting are far from game-changers. They are mostly (some say totally) a rag-tag bunch of former 3-Star recruits. Sometimes such players blossom. Alabama Football has shown 3-Star players can turn into top performers. Even with such successes, the majority of them do not excel competing against elite talent.

Harsin has brought in a total of nine transfers so far, according to 247 Sports, and they’re all 3-star recruits with the exception of WR transfer Demetris Robertson, who was a 5-star prospect out of high school. Of those nine transfers, three were impact players at SEC schools, and six of them were competitors at Power-5 schools.

Robertson’s best year at UGA was in 2019, a year when the Bulldogs finished the season 12-2, first in the SEC East, runners-up to LSU in the SEC championship, and beat Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. Eku Leota, EDGE transfer from Northwestern, contributed to his team’s Citrus Bowl win over Auburn in 2020 after the Wildcats finished first in the Big 10 west and went to the conference championship.

The 3-star recruits Harsin has added to the team are hardly a “rag-tag” bunch and the transfers have plenty of potential to develop into top performers that can compete against elite talent under a new coaching staff and a program with a new direction.

The Tide has enjoyed their reign of terror for a long time, and they’re worried that Auburn football is coming for them. The Tigers–and their 3-star recruits–are going to be turning plenty of heads come this fall.

[aubiefifty 16,761]

who in the hell is the bama hammer? I bet this is why coach cut off the recruiting sites out of the loop. what a jerk.

[Hank2020 3,199]

I had read the article, and hate that anyone from Bammer nation is talking about us. That said our recruiter class for 2021 was ranked much lower than normal ( agree with all the reasons why), and so far 2022 is still very low but hoping for progress moving forward. So I don’t see anything in the article I can argue with (factually), but certainly disagree with the results prognosis moving forward.

[Gowebb11 9,314]

Everyone is appropriately discussing the recruiting. But with the large number of transfers we brought in, I think we are going to know immediately what kind of talent evaluators this staff is. At least 4 or 5 of the transfers are expected to contribute immediately. If they do, and at a high level I will be sold on the evaluation part. If the transfers aren’t SEC level, I will be very concerned going forward. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Gowebb11

[boisnumber1 2,818]

Yeah, it's written like a child, but I dont disagree with the jist of it. We are starting to look a little bit like 3star U.

[Randy4AU 109]

Is the staff even recruiting any 4 or 5 star recruits? 

[bigbird 60,506]

3 hours ago, Randy4AU said:

Is the staff even recruiting any 4 or 5 star recruits? 

No, why do you ask?

[DAG 33,977]

It’s going to be hilarious when we see success on the field and some of these folks are going to act like they always knew we had something special .

[AUwent 3,748]

Whoever wrote the response article needs to italicize the TurdHammer article.

[JDUBB4AU 5,112]

It’s an opinion piece . Who gives a s*** . We will see who has the hammer this fall 

[Randy4AU 109]

23 hours ago, bigbird said:

No, why do you ask?

Just curious. I don't doubt these 3-star recruits are going to bust their backsides, but I wonder if this could be a possibility of why Auburn has trouble with UGA, LSU, and Bama since those teams  seem to load up on 4 and 5 star recruits. 

[bigbird 60,506]

1 hour ago, Randy4AU said:

Just curious. I don't doubt these 3-star recruits are going to bust their backsides, but I wonder if this could be a possibility of why Auburn has trouble with UGA, LSU, and Bama since those teams  seem to load up on 4 and 5 star recruits. 

The reason Auburn hasn't competed with the "big3" is now at UCF

[IronMan70 3,277]

Rather than concern themselves with Auburn trends, the bammers better worry more about the trend of teams being more competitive for players. Now that $$ benefits can be offered via NIL deals, their under the table deals won't be the only game in town anymore.

[Sizzle 3,912]

1 hour ago, IronMan70 said:

Rather than concern themselves with Auburn trends, the bammers better worry more about the trend of teams being more competitive for players. Now that $$ benefits can be offered via NIL deals, their under the table deals won't be the only game in town anymore.

Everybody did under the table deals, not just Bama. And Bama shouldn’t be worried, these guys still want to get drafted high and go to the NFL too, who’s better at it currently than them

[AUwent 3,748]

2 hours ago, bigbird said:

The reason Auburn hasn't competed with the "big3" is now at UCF

I love your confidence, even if I can't necessarily agree with it.

[JDUBB4AU 5,112]

2 hours ago, bigbird said:

The reason Auburn hasn't competed with the "big3" is now at UCF

This x 1000 ..Got a few rolls of TP left over from the shortage for all tears after Birds comment . 

[IronMan70 3,277]

17 hours ago, Sizzle said:

Everybody did under the table deals, not just Bama. And Bama shouldn’t be worried, these guys still want to get drafted high and go to the NFL too, who’s better at it currently than them

Bama's under the table deals aren't in the same class. Saban knows the talent level of the players brings the wins, the championship and the NFL caliber players. Those things don't just happen. So early on Saban went about making sure he got those better players one way or the other. Fast forward to today, anything that cuts into that roster recruiting advantage, such as teams using the new NILs, is something Saban should and will be concerned about so he can counter it.

[Zeek 16,649]

This is an interesting conversation if we want to have it genuinely. I'll write a long post later looking at Gus' last three classes compared to the 2021 class and the most likely 2022 class.

Question is, how many of those previous 4* players have really contributed comparatively?

Gus might have finished higher in class rankings but look how poorly we did at getting players in the early round of the draft compared to our peers.

[tinman 305]

1 hour ago, IronMan70 said:

Bama's under the table deals aren't in the same class. Saban knows the talent level of the players brings the wins, the championship and the NFL caliber players. Those things don't just happen. So early on Saban went about making sure he got those better players one way or the other. Fast forward to today, anything that cuts into that roster recruiting advantage, such as teams using the new NILs, is something Saban should and will be concerned about so he can counter it.

Saban is not concerned with his opponents and the NIL they would offer.  Bama has always operated on the "anything you can do we can do better" system.  This is just another advantage bama will have with their network of Red Elephant Club boosters.

[AuburnNTexas 7,140]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

This is an interesting conversation if we want to have it genuinely. I'll write a long post later looking at Gus' last three classes compared to the 2021 class and the most likely 2022 class.

Question is, how many of those previous 4* players have really contributed comparatively?

Gus might have finished higher in class rankings but look how poorly we did at getting players in the early round of the draft compared to our peers.

One other question is how many of the good players Gus recruited transferred out or just quit football. When you don't keep the players it doesn't matter how good the class was.

[steeleagle 2,945]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

This is an interesting conversation if we want to have it genuinely. I'll write a long post later looking at Gus' last three classes compared to the 2021 class and the most likely 2022 class.

Question is, how many of those previous 4* players have really contributed comparatively?

Gus might have finished higher in class rankings but look how poorly we did at getting players in the early round of the draft compared to our peers.

I think Gus' main problem is he has only won 39% of the time when his teams were on CBS. 😅

I think Gus' biggest problem besides weak OL recruiting is that Seven ESPN300 QBs have played under Malzahn, but none has thrown for 20+ touchdowns and only 1 threw for over 3,000 yards. His QB recruiting was spotty, but his QB development was so deficient.

 

[IronMan70 3,277]

3 hours ago, tinman said:

Saban is not concerned with his opponents and the NIL they would offer.  Bama has always operated on the "anything you can do we can do better" system.  This is just another advantage bama will have with their network of Red Elephant Club boosters.

Saban didn't get to where he is without being concerned about everything. The man ignores nothing, especially threats by competitors to his recruiting advantage which is the very foundation of his "process". He is concerned because, as we just saw with Miami, it just takes 1 or 2 mega rich boosters using the NIL to make a big difference. The REC was built to handle that very thing but it won't be quite as easy as it's been.   

[Zeek 16,649]

Looking at the 2018 class (blue = still had eligibility / orange = transferred or quit). This is the group that should currently be our senior class.

• 4* Joey Gatewood - transferred to Kentucky
• 4* Matthew Hill - transferred to USF
• 4* Coynis Miller - not currently with any team apparently it wasn't uncommon for him to go on hissy fits at practice
• 4* Harold Joiner - transferred to Michigan State
• 4* Smoke Monday - starting for us and likely NFL draft pick
• 4* Anthony Schwartz - 91st overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Seth Williams - 219th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Zakoby McClain - current starter likely late round NFL draft pick
• 4* Asa Martin - transferred to Memphis
• 4* Jamien Sherwood - 146th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Christian Tutt - undrafted and unsigned after starting at nickel
• 4* Michael Harris - transferred to Eastern Kentucky and then assaulted a police officer
• 4* Richard Jibunor - transferred to Troy
• 4* Daquan Newkirk - transferred to Florida
• 4* Shaun Shivers - currently important part of the RB rotation
• 3* Shedrick Jackson - still on the team but very little impact
• 3* Jalil Irvin - still with the team
• 3* Caleb Johnson - still with the team
• 3* Kameron Stutts - still at Auburn
• 3* Kolbi Fuqua - transferred to JSU
• 3* Roger McCreary - formerly ranked the #989th player by 247 he is a star of our current team and likely a NFL draft pick in the first two days
• 3* Josh Marsh - transferred to North Arizona University
• 3* Arryn Siposs - pretty decent for us before leaving early (ill-advised) for a chance in the NFL

The first thing that stands out when comparing our current incoming talent is that Gus rocked it getting a whopping 15 4-star players (though as usual no 5-star players).

However, there's a huge roster issue of depth and talent when you have 10 players transfer out. Additionally, what does it say of the talent level when only 3 of those 10 transfers make it to another Power 5 program.

McCreary is a definite diamond in the rough but the rest of the 3-star players either didn't contribute or provided very little. Still some huge long term impacts from guys like Seth Williams, Schwartz, McClain, Shivers, Sherwood, Smoke, Newkirk, and McCreary.

 

Now to his next class (2019):

• 5* Owen Pappoe - has been solid and likely NFL draft pick
• 5* Bo Nix - debate what you want, he started as a freshman in the SEC and has had put up (at the very least) serviceable numbers.
• 4* Charles Moore - transferred to Oregon State
• 4* Mark-Antony Richards - transferred to UCF
• 4* Jaren Handy - transferred to Indiana
• 4* Zion Puckett - still at Auburn but hasn't made a major impact yet
• 4* Keiondre Jones - valuable rotation member on the OL starting 6 games last year
• 4* Derick Hall - rising star on the team with high expectations for this year
• 4* Cam'Ron Kelly - transferred to UNC
• 4* Jashawn Sheffield - transferred to Midd-Tennessee
• 4* DJ Williams - transferred to FSU
• 4* Jaylin Simpson - still on the team and contributes well
• 4* Colby Wooden - contributes well on the DL
• 4* Ja'Varrius Johnson - looking to get an increased role this year
• 3* Tyler Fromm - unused previously looking to get increased role
• 3* Nehemiah Pritchett - valuable depth in the secondary
• 3* Justin Osborne - transferred to SMU
• 3* Kamaar Bell - transferred to FAU
• 3* Luke Deal - unused looking for increased role
• 3* Octavius Brothers - transferred to Purdue
• 3* Kameron Brown - still on the team?

14 4 or 5-star players keeps pace with the previous class on paper. 9 transfers with 5 making it to Power-5 programs shows some better overall evaluation. A lot of this class suffered from misuse.

Comparatively we have only five 4-star players in the 2020 class but the nine transfers (six from Power 5 teams) has really helped inject some needed talent to accommodate for so many losses.

I think it's fair to say the talent arc has trended down due to some bad evaluations, player management, and unfortunate transfers. The 2020 high school commits aren't going to be enough to carry this program into the future but the transfers should be a booster shot.

Currently we're looking to finish with maybe five 4-star players in the 2022 class. Having two classes in a row with 1/3 of the 4+ star commits we were getting previously isn't great admittedly. Transfers will likely play a big role in the 2022 class as well but the 2023 & 2024 classes need to be stellar for Auburn and Harsin's sake.

I'm no master of talent evaluation but I believe three of our current three-star commits are underrated largely due to the lack of camps and evaluations taking place. LB Powell Gordon is a DUDE with a great frame. Alex McPherson should be a 4 year starter at kicker if all works out well. Micah Riley-Ducker, a 3-star TE, is a true 6'6" with room to grow and incredible athleticism.

Too long? Didn't read? The talent level has dropped and the 247 rankings support that claim looking at the 2021 & 2022 classes. However, transfers with plenty of eligibility could be our saving grace and player development is going to be an absolute must for Harsin to survive Auburn's expectations.

 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

 Well by that definition, Auburn had a downward talent trend against Bama throughout the Malzahn era - Saban always outrecruited Malzahn yet failed to beat him on some very high profile occasions.

(Whoops, wrong forum for those facts).

[Mikey 16,578]

8 hours ago, AuburnNTexas said:

One other question is how many of the good players Gus recruited transferred out or just quit football. When you don't keep the players it doesn't matter how good the class was.

But, how good were they really? I can't recall any player quitting AU in the past several years that went on to bigger and better things at another P-5 school. Believe it or not, the attrition rate at AU is the same as it is at other SEC schools. That's something I've been watching for decades. We don't lose more than anybody else and most who leave AU are never heard from again. Two exceptions would be Cowart at Maryland and Willis at small-school Liberty. Both of those guys said they didn't put in the necessary effort at AU.

Remember the big stir on this board when Asa Martin left for Miami? Martin was 5th string when he left AU. After spending a winter and spring at Miami, he was running 5th string there too, so he left for Memphis. He rode out a transfer year at Memphis and after that, he worked his way all the way up to third string this past season. That's been pretty much the norm for the guys who leave here. Were they over-rated by the recruiting services? Sure. Is this situation unique to Auburn? No. Everybody loses a bunch.