Bama Hammer claims AU has “downward trend in talent”

[Zeek 16,640]

8 hours ago, Mikey said:

But, how good were they really? I can't recall any player quitting AU in the past several years that went on to bigger and better things at another P-5 school. Believe it or not, the attrition rate at AU is the same as it is at other SEC schools. That's something I've been watching for decades. We don't lose more than anybody else and most who leave AU are never heard from again. Two exceptions would be Cowart at Maryland and Willis at small-school Liberty. Both of those guys said they didn't put in the necessary effort at AU.

Remember the big stir on this board when Asa Martin left for Miami? Martin was 5th string when he left AU. After spending a winter and spring at Miami, he was running 5th string there too, so he left for Memphis. He rode out a transfer year at Memphis and after that, he worked his way all the way up to third string this past season. That's been pretty much the norm for the guys who leave here. Were they over-rated by the recruiting services? Sure. Is this situation unique to Auburn? No. Everybody loses a bunch.

Yup, but that goes back to an issue of evaluation. We took Asa and Harold Joiner in that class and never really used either of them (were we just star chasing?)

Although I'm looking at the 2018 running backs (nationally) and it's not an impressive list.

[CoffeeTiger 5,087]

9 hours ago, Mikey said:

But, how good were they really? I can't recall any player quitting AU in the past several years that went on to bigger and better things at another P-5 school. Believe it or not, the attrition rate at AU is the same as it is at other SEC schools. That's something I've been watching for decades. We don't lose more than anybody else and most who leave AU are never heard from again. Two exceptions would be Cowart at Maryland and Willis at small-school Liberty. Both of those guys said they didn't put in the necessary effort at AU.

Remember the big stir on this board when Asa Martin left for Miami? Martin was 5th string when he left AU. After spending a winter and spring at Miami, he was running 5th string there too, so he left for Memphis. He rode out a transfer year at Memphis and after that, he worked his way all the way up to third string this past season. That's been pretty much the norm for the guys who leave here. Were they over-rated by the recruiting services? Sure. Is this situation unique to Auburn? No. Everybody loses a bunch.

That's probably true, but what I don't believe is in doubt is that Malzahn underperformed with the raw talent that he was bringing in. His recruiting rankings were always impressive and were up there with Bama, LSU, UGA most years, but when it came to on the field competition, we got our clock cleaned a majority of the time. 

 

With that said, I don't necessarily believe the answer is to start bringing in scrappy 3-star classes either. That may give you some good years and worked ok for Tuberville when Auburn wasn't as wealthy and the SEC wasn't as tough but now expectations are higher. Hopefully Harsin will get his contacts/connections set up and we can get to a point where Auburn is bringing in top talent AND showing that talent on the field. 

Edited July 13, 2021 by CoffeeTiger

[steeleagle 2,945]

13 hours ago, Zeek said:

Looking at the 2018 class (blue = still had eligibility / orange = transferred or quit). This is the group that should currently be our senior class.

• 4* Joey Gatewood - transferred to Kentucky
• 4* Matthew Hill - transferred to USF
• 4* Coynis Miller - not currently with any team apparently it wasn't uncommon for him to go on hissy fits at practice
• 4* Harold Joiner - transferred to Michigan State
• 4* Smoke Monday - starting for us and likely NFL draft pick
• 4* Anthony Schwartz - 91st overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Seth Williams - 219th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Zakoby McClain - current starter likely late round NFL draft pick
• 4* Asa Martin - transferred to Memphis
• 4* Jamien Sherwood - 146th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Christian Tutt - undrafted and unsigned after starting at nickel
• 4* Michael Harris - transferred to Eastern Kentucky and then assaulted a police officer
• 4* Richard Jibunor - transferred to Troy
• 4* Daquan Newkirk - transferred to Florida
• 4* Shaun Shivers - currently important part of the RB rotation
• 3* Shedrick Jackson - still on the team but very little impact
• 3* Jalil Irvin - still with the team
• 3* Caleb Johnson - still with the team
• 3* Kameron Stutts - still at Auburn
• 3* Kolbi Fuqua - transferred to JSU
• 3* Roger McCreary - formerly ranked the #989th player by 247 he is a star of our current team and likely a NFL draft pick in the first two days
• 3* Josh Marsh - transferred to North Arizona University
• 3* Arryn Siposs - pretty decent for us before leaving early (ill-advised) for a chance in the NFL

The first thing that stands out when comparing our current incoming talent is that Gus rocked it getting a whopping 15 4-star players (though as usual no 5-star players).

However, there's a huge roster issue of depth and talent when you have 10 players transfer out. Additionally, what does it say of the talent level when only 3 of those 10 transfers make it to another Power 5 program.

McCreary is a definite diamond in the rough but the rest of the 3-star players either didn't contribute or provided very little. Still some huge long term impacts from guys like Seth Williams, Schwartz, McClain, Shivers, Sherwood, Smoke, Newkirk, and McCreary.

 

Now to his next class (2019):

• 5* Owen Pappoe - has been solid and likely NFL draft pick
• 5* Bo Nix - debate what you want, he started as a freshman in the SEC and has had put up (at the very least) serviceable numbers.
• 4* Charles Moore - transferred to Oregon State
• 4* Mark-Antony Richards - transferred to UCF
• 4* Jaren Handy - transferred to Indiana
• 4* Zion Puckett - still at Auburn but hasn't made a major impact yet
• 4* Keiondre Jones - valuable rotation member on the OL starting 6 games last year
• 4* Derick Hall - rising star on the team with high expectations for this year
• 4* Cam'Ron Kelly - transferred to UNC
• 4* Jashawn Sheffield - transferred to Midd-Tennessee
• 4* DJ Williams - transferred to FSU
• 4* Jaylin Simpson - still on the team and contributes well
• 4* Colby Wooden - contributes well on the DL
• 4* Ja'Varrius Johnson - looking to get an increased role this year
• 3* Tyler Fromm - unused previously looking to get increased role
• 3* Nehemiah Pritchett - valuable depth in the secondary
• 3* Justin Osborne - transferred to SMU
• 3* Kamaar Bell - transferred to FAU
• 3* Luke Deal - unused looking for increased role
• 3* Octavius Brothers - transferred to Purdue
• 3* Kameron Brown - still on the team?

14 4 or 5-star players keeps pace with the previous class on paper. 9 transfers with 5 making it to Power-5 programs shows some better overall evaluation. A lot of this class suffered from misuse.

Comparatively we have only five 4-star players in the 2020 class but the nine transfers (six from Power 5 teams) has really helped inject some needed talent to accommodate for so many losses.

I think it's fair to say the talent arc has trended down due to some bad evaluations, player management, and unfortunate transfers. The 2020 high school commits aren't going to be enough to carry this program into the future but the transfers should be a booster shot.

Currently we're looking to finish with maybe five 4-star players in the 2022 class. Having two classes in a row with 1/3 of the 4+ star commits we were getting previously isn't great admittedly. Transfers will likely play a big role in the 2022 class as well but the 2023 & 2024 classes need to be stellar for Auburn and Harsin's sake.

I'm no master of talent evaluation but I believe three of our current three-star commits are underrated largely due to the lack of camps and evaluations taking place. LB Powell Gordon is a DUDE with a great frame. Alex McPherson should be a 4 year starter at kicker if all works out well. Micah Riley-Ducker, a 3-star TE, is a true 6'6" with room to grow and incredible athleticism.

Too long? Didn't read? The talent level has dropped and the 247 rankings support that claim looking at the 2021 & 2022 classes. However, transfers with plenty of eligibility could be our saving grace and player development is going to be an absolute must for Harsin to survive Auburn's expectations.

 

What's also interesting is that in the 2018 class,  8 out of the 9 that transferred, did so BEFORE Gus was let go. And in the 2019 class, 9 of those that transferred, I believe, did so AFTER Harsin was hired. Kinda strange. 

Also, your breakdown shows that Gus' and this could be true of any coach, only had 1 starter develop out of our 2018 and 10 3*s(McCreary). It will be interesting to see in the next 3-4 years how well the 3* players Harsin signs, actually are starters or major contributors.

And it can't be emphasized enough, as you pointed out, Harsin HAS to have top 10 classes in his 2023 and 2024 classes if we are to compete for SEC championships with the likes of Alabama, GA< LSU, TaM, and FL all doing well in recruiting. If Harsin doesn't, then in 3 years he will be bringing in new coaches/recruiters, or he will be on the hotseat before his contract is up in 5 years.

[Zeek 16,640]

6 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

What's also interesting is that in the 2018 class,  8 out of the 9 that transferred, did so BEFORE Gus was let go. And in the 2019 class, 9 of those that transferred, I believe, did so AFTER Harsin was hired. Kinda strange. 

Also, your breakdown shows that Gus' and this could be true of any coach, only had 1 starter develop out of our 2018 and 10 3*s(McCreary). It will be interesting to see in the next 3-4 years how well the 3* players Harsin signs, actually are starters or major contributors.

And it can't be emphasized enough, as you pointed out, Harsin HAS to have top 10 classes in his 2023 and 2024 classes if we are to compete for SEC championships with the likes of Alabama, GA< LSU, TaM, and FL all doing well in recruiting. If Harsin doesn't, then in 3 years he will be bringing in new coaches/recruiters, or he will be on the hotseat before his contract is up in 5 years.

I think he'll get the full 5 years unless he has some losing seasons. This year I'd say 7 wins is the minimum threshold, 8/9 the year after, and then we need to be in contention the next few years.

[steeleagle 2,945]

3 hours ago, Zeek said:

I think he'll get the full 5 years unless he has some losing seasons. This year I'd say 7 wins is the minimum threshold, 8/9 the year after, and then we need to be in contention the next few years.

That's about the way I see it. The key for Harsin will be if he can stem the bleeding of not beating GA or not beating any of the top 3 (AL, GA, LSU) on the road. If Harsin can beat GA at home this year, beat LSU next year on the road, and maintain that 7-9 wins as you say in the next 3 years, he will be building that culture we hope he is trying to install now. 

AND he has to get better in recruiting, or he will not be competing for championships even if he meets those key objectives/wins I mentioned above.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Alabama and Saban should also know that their own program went undefeated in the SEC with a bunch of 3 stars in 2008 and won the Natty in 2009 with those same 3 stars and a bunch of Freshmen 5/4*s.  2010-2011 was probably the first season that most of their lineup was 4-5 * recruits.  Auburn won the Natty in 2010 with a 7-5 team and a generational QB.  Gus didn't leave the shelf empty like Tubs and Terry did.  Outside of OTs this team has a lot of talent to be utilized.  

Edit to add with the transfer portal you can get a whole lot better real quick if you have some of the pieces already in place.  Just ask the Alabama basketball team.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Win4AU

[autigeremt 6,589]

On 7/10/2021 at 6:48 PM, DAG said:

It’s going to be hilarious when we see success on the field and some of these folks are going to act like they always knew we had something special .

We need something to get excited about. Badly. 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

On 7/13/2021 at 12:03 AM, Mikey said:

But, how good were they really? I can't recall any player quitting AU in the past several years that went on to bigger and better things at another P-5 school. Believe it or not, the attrition rate at AU is the same as it is at other SEC schools. That's something I've been watching for decades. We don't lose more than anybody else and most who leave AU are never heard from again. Two exceptions would be Cowart at Maryland and Willis at small-school Liberty. Both of those guys said they didn't put in the necessary effort at AU.

Remember the big stir on this board when Asa Martin left for Miami? Martin was 5th string when he left AU. After spending a winter and spring at Miami, he was running 5th string there too, so he left for Memphis. He rode out a transfer year at Memphis and after that, he worked his way all the way up to third string this past season. That's been pretty much the norm for the guys who leave here. Were they over-rated by the recruiting services? Sure. Is this situation unique to Auburn? No. Everybody loses a bunch.

While the attrition rates are probably close, I do believe under previous management that AU suffered more than many other schools on that topic. Just look at how the top ends of our classes are the guys that left. Go look at every class from about 2015 to 2019. Most of the guys that left were the top rated kids in the class. I did an entire breakdown a few months back in another forum explaining this. When I have time I will search and repost.

[Mikey 16,565]

1 hour ago, Tigerpro2a said:

While the attrition rates are probably close, I do believe under previous management that AU suffered more than many other schools on that topic. Just look at how the top ends of our classes are the guys that left. Go look at every class from about 2015 to 2019. Most of the guys that left were the top rated kids in the class. I did an entire breakdown a few months back in another forum explaining this. When I have time I will search and repost.

No need to do that on my account. I saw your article when it was originally posted. I still don't think we are any worse in that department than our competitors. That transfer portal has a bunch of former  4 & 5* guys, from schools in all parts of the country.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

5 hours ago, Mikey said:

No need to do that on my account. I saw your article when it was originally posted. I still don't think we are any worse in that department than our competitors. That transfer portal has a bunch of former  4 & 5* guys, from schools in all parts of the country.

If you saw the article then there is no argument. No other school lost 70 percent of the highest rated signees in 3 of 4 straight classes. I get what you are saying and yes all schools experience attrition, but not all schools go through what we did the last few years under Gus. 

[AUwent 3,747]

On 7/13/2021 at 11:25 AM, Zeek said:

I think he'll get the full 5 years unless he has some losing seasons. This year I'd say 7 wins is the minimum threshold, 8/9 the year after, and then we need to be in contention the next few years.

Here's my breakdown of expectations for the next five years (assuming 12 game regular seasons, but counting bowls):

-All seasons 2021-25 must be at least 7 wins

-All of 2023-25 must be at least 8 wins

-At least two of 2023-25 must be at least 9 wins

-At least one of 2023-25 must be at least 10 wins

I hope that's not asking too much of our staff.

Edited July 15, 2021 by AUwent

[Randman5000 4,226]

This article is trash. 

[TigerHorn 1,351]

On 7/12/2021 at 8:20 PM, Zeek said:

Looking at the 2018 class (blue = still had eligibility / orange = transferred or quit). This is the group that should currently be our senior class.

• 4* Joey Gatewood - transferred to Kentucky
• 4* Matthew Hill - transferred to USF
• 4* Coynis Miller - not currently with any team apparently it wasn't uncommon for him to go on hissy fits at practice
• 4* Harold Joiner - transferred to Michigan State
• 4* Smoke Monday - starting for us and likely NFL draft pick
• 4* Anthony Schwartz - 91st overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Seth Williams - 219th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Zakoby McClain - current starter likely late round NFL draft pick
• 4* Asa Martin - transferred to Memphis
• 4* Jamien Sherwood - 146th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
• 4* Christian Tutt - undrafted and unsigned after starting at nickel
• 4* Michael Harris - transferred to Eastern Kentucky and then assaulted a police officer
• 4* Richard Jibunor - transferred to Troy
• 4* Daquan Newkirk - transferred to Florida
• 4* Shaun Shivers - currently important part of the RB rotation
• 3* Shedrick Jackson - still on the team but very little impact
• 3* Jalil Irvin - still with the team
• 3* Caleb Johnson - still with the team
• 3* Kameron Stutts - still at Auburn
• 3* Kolbi Fuqua - transferred to JSU
• 3* Roger McCreary - formerly ranked the #989th player by 247 he is a star of our current team and likely a NFL draft pick in the first two days
• 3* Josh Marsh - transferred to North Arizona University
• 3* Arryn Siposs - pretty decent for us before leaving early (ill-advised) for a chance in the NFL

The first thing that stands out when comparing our current incoming talent is that Gus rocked it getting a whopping 15 4-star players (though as usual no 5-star players).

However, there's a huge roster issue of depth and talent when you have 10 players transfer out. Additionally, what does it say of the talent level when only 3 of those 10 transfers make it to another Power 5 program.

McCreary is a definite diamond in the rough but the rest of the 3-star players either didn't contribute or provided very little. Still some huge long term impacts from guys like Seth Williams, Schwartz, McClain, Shivers, Sherwood, Smoke, Newkirk, and McCreary.

 

Now to his next class (2019):

• 5* Owen Pappoe - has been solid and likely NFL draft pick
• 5* Bo Nix - debate what you want, he started as a freshman in the SEC and has had put up (at the very least) serviceable numbers.
• 4* Charles Moore - transferred to Oregon State
• 4* Mark-Antony Richards - transferred to UCF
• 4* Jaren Handy - transferred to Indiana
• 4* Zion Puckett - still at Auburn but hasn't made a major impact yet
• 4* Keiondre Jones - valuable rotation member on the OL starting 6 games last year
• 4* Derick Hall - rising star on the team with high expectations for this year
• 4* Cam'Ron Kelly - transferred to UNC
• 4* Jashawn Sheffield - transferred to Midd-Tennessee
• 4* DJ Williams - transferred to FSU
• 4* Jaylin Simpson - still on the team and contributes well
• 4* Colby Wooden - contributes well on the DL
• 4* Ja'Varrius Johnson - looking to get an increased role this year
• 3* Tyler Fromm - unused previously looking to get increased role
• 3* Nehemiah Pritchett - valuable depth in the secondary
• 3* Justin Osborne - transferred to SMU
• 3* Kamaar Bell - transferred to FAU
• 3* Luke Deal - unused looking for increased role
• 3* Octavius Brothers - transferred to Purdue
• 3* Kameron Brown - still on the team?

14 4 or 5-star players keeps pace with the previous class on paper. 9 transfers with 5 making it to Power-5 programs shows some better overall evaluation. A lot of this class suffered from misuse.

Comparatively we have only five 4-star players in the 2020 class but the nine transfers (six from Power 5 teams) has really helped inject some needed talent to accommodate for so many losses.

I think it's fair to say the talent arc has trended down due to some bad evaluations, player management, and unfortunate transfers. The 2020 high school commits aren't going to be enough to carry this program into the future but the transfers should be a booster shot.

Currently we're looking to finish with maybe five 4-star players in the 2022 class. Having two classes in a row with 1/3 of the 4+ star commits we were getting previously isn't great admittedly. Transfers will likely play a big role in the 2022 class as well but the 2023 & 2024 classes need to be stellar for Auburn and Harsin's sake.

I'm no master of talent evaluation but I believe three of our current three-star commits are underrated largely due to the lack of camps and evaluations taking place. LB Powell Gordon is a DUDE with a great frame. Alex McPherson should be a 4 year starter at kicker if all works out well. Micah Riley-Ducker, a 3-star TE, is a true 6'6" with room to grow and incredible athleticism.

Too long? Didn't read? The talent level has dropped and the 247 rankings support that claim looking at the 2021 & 2022 classes. However, transfers with plenty of eligibility could be our saving grace and player development is going to be an absolute must for Harsin to survive Auburn's expectations.

 

That is good data, I'd be very interested to see similar breakdowns for UGA, or UF, or LSU. I don't really think bammer is a valid comparison because of their outlier status in every respect of the recruiting side. Clemson might be an interesting one as well. Not suggesting you do all of these - just one more data point from a peer would be good to see. 

[Zeek 16,640]

18 minutes ago, TigerHorn said:

That is good data, I'd be very interested to see similar breakdowns for UGA, or UF, or LSU. I don't really think bammer is a valid comparison because of their outlier status in every respect of the recruiting side. Clemson might be an interesting one as well. Not suggesting you do all of these - just one more data point from a peer would be good to see. 

Florida might be the closest 1-to-1 comparison but I'll look into a few when I have time.