Harsin: Team 60% vacinated

[aubaseball 2,583]

12 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Homer, to your point on reaching a "critical %".  I don't really think that will ever apply here.  I'm gonna set aside the experimental nature of this specific family of vaccines for a minute;  and the lack of any real need for young/healthy people to take it.  I think the main issue on this is "this is a flu". 

And like the flu, there are always new strains/varieties of it each season.  The current panic-porn is "Delta" or "Lambda" variant is going to kill us all (only slightly less virulent apparently than net-neutrality).  And frankly, I don't know whether the current vaccines are or or not effective against these strains as I have heard wildly different POV's on this.  If they are; well, then, we are lucky and have nothing to worry about so I don't get the breathless worrying and reporting on the variants.  If they aren't; which is more typical of an annual "flu"; then it won't matter anyway. 

The current set of annual flu vaccines usually ranges at only about 60% effective each year...some years as low as 40%; sometimes 80%; but usually at 60%.   And just like the current set of flu vaccines, if you're below a certain age (usually 55); no need to get it.  if you do get it, there are treatments so it's a one week inconvenience.  If you're over :the age"; docs recommend you get it; but it's still a matter of choice.  You guys know what that is right?  Personal choice?  My choice, my body?  Or does that only apply to leftist causes?

We're going to have to get used to living with this ambiguity folks; like civilizations has for the last 100,000 years.    Harsin's approach to this is to treat adults like adults...novel concept for some apparently.  

Nailed it!!!!   Nicely put and appreciated.   Some on here just don’t get it or expect others to follow their agendas or else “you’re a trumper” or “conspiracy theorists “.   

[aucanucktiger 1,789]

Vaccination decision depends heavily on what's most important to you. If you have to walk across hot coals to do what you're burning (yuk yuk) to do, will you do it?

[AUGoo 2,659]

CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. 

 

The CDC is now saying not to use this PCR test after Dec 31 because it does not well differentiate Covid 19 from the flu.  I have spent little time investigating the PCR test but have heard it can be ramped (or manipulated) up to be highly sensitive or be less sensitive.

Anyone care to explain?

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

[auskip07 930]

20 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. 

 

The CDC is now saying not to use this PCR test after Dec 31 because it does not well differentiate Covid 19 from the flu.  I have spent little time investigating the PCR test but have heard it can be ramped (or manipulated) up to be highly sensitive or be less sensitive.

Anyone care to explain?

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

I cant explain the technical's but my wife is an analytical / QC chemist for a pharmaceutical company and basically said you can adjust the machines to find any part of the virus even if its not a complete virus strain in these machines..    So it basically throws a "+"  when there might not be a complete chain of the virus.   Surprisingly   or not surprisingly they adjusted the sensitivity to require more of a complete virus to throw a "+" In December  shortly after....   well you can figure that out 

 

Im probably not using the correct terms  and she explained it to me when this happened 7-8 months ago.  I dont have a Biology/chemistry degree.  

[homersapien 11,352]

11 hours ago, NoALtiger said:

Meh, people been saying that literally my whole life. It’s a cliche at this point. Another one I enjoy is the “biggest election of all time” or something along those line. Every election can’t be the most important of all time. Guarantee you folks 50 years from now will be saying the country is starting to unravel.  

I lived through the 60's and am familiar with social strife.  It's different now.  I attribute it to technology (social media).

I told my wife that the internet was going to change us in ways we cannot even predict.  I was right.

[homersapien 11,352]

2 hours ago, auskip07 said:

Conspiracy?   no....   a need to sensationalize and possibly skew the numbers for political reasons?  yes

 

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

In other words, a conspiracy.

 

[AU9377 4,913]

19 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Ronald Reagan: "The problem with our liberal friends isn't that they're ignorant. It's that they know so many things that aren't so."

The real problem is that this is not a liberal or conservative, left or right, issue.  This IS about the health of us individually AND the health of the communities where we live.  Many have allowed talking heads with agendas and the need to maintain influence by way of developing and growing division where there needs to be none to convince them that this issue is part of the partisan landscape.  They do this to the detriment of those that listen to their every word.  Any notion that the vaccine is anything other than a brilliant scientific accomplishment would be considered silly, but for the fact that the suggestions are so damning when large numbers give them credibility.

[homersapien 11,352]

2 hours ago, japantiger said:

Homer, to your point on reaching a "critical %".  I don't really think that will ever apply here.  I'm gonna set aside the experimental nature of this specific family of vaccines for a minute;  and the lack of any real need for young/healthy people to take it.  I think the main issue on this is "this is a flu". 

And like the flu, there are always new strains/varieties of it each season.  The current panic-porn is "Delta" or "Lambda" variant is going to kill us all (only slightly less virulent apparently than net-neutrality).  And frankly, I don't know whether the current vaccines are or or not effective against these strains as I have heard wildly different POV's on this.  If they are; well, then, we are lucky and have nothing to worry about so I don't get the breathless worrying and reporting on the variants.  If they aren't; which is more typical of an annual "flu"; then it won't matter anyway. 

The current set of annual flu vaccines usually ranges at only about 60% effective each year...some years as low as 40%; sometimes 80%; but usually at 60%.   And just like the current set of flu vaccines, if you're below a certain age (usually 55); no need to get it.  if you do get it, there are treatments so it's a one week inconvenience.  If you're over :the age"; docs recommend you get it; but it's still a matter of choice.  You guys know what that is right?  Personal choice?  My choice, my body?  Or does that only apply to leftist causes?

We're going to have to get used to living with this ambiguity folks; like civilizations has for the last 100,000 years.    Harsin's approach to this is to treat adults like adults...novel concept for some apparently.  

Just like the flu vaccines, the current covid vaccines may not prevent you from getting infected with either the old or the new variants but they reduce the severity of the symptoms if you do.

And again, vaccines against highly transmissible viruses are about much more than individual protection.  It's about protecting our society as a whole.  

Yes, you have the right to refuse vaccination, just like most Republicans are doing.  That doesn't make you an "adult" it makes you a misinformed, selfish individual who is irresponsible.  But you do you.

(And getting vaccinated is not anywhere near the same level of imposition as being forced to give birth regardless of circumstance.)

Edited July 26, 2021 by homersapien

[AU9377 4,913]

13 hours ago, AUght2win said:

It's arrogance like this that turns people off. And hey, if you're a believer in passive societal responsibility, you're technically killing people by botching the vaccine pitch so badly.

Riddle me this. If there's *no* scientific reason to fear the longterm effects of a vaccine, then why do some vaccines take years, decades even, and grueling, multi-stage trials to vet before they are released for public use? 

You are comparing the development of vaccines to prevent chicken pox (to pick one) to the vaccine developed to stop the spread of a never before seen respiratory virus that is airborne and killing hundreds of thousands.  If you are diagnosed with cancer, would you want the FDA to tell you that they are studying the MRNA vaccines and it isn't available even though they have been studying the vaccine deployment method for years or would you want to have access to a treatment that has proven to be effective and has not shown to be problematic in trials over 12 months and including 100,000 or more participants?

Would you suggest not vaccinating children against Polio, mumps and a laundry list of other possibly deadly viruses? Why would doctors spend their lives finding ways to heal people, yet in this one instance all be part of some sinister conspiracy to harm you?  Think about that.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

2 hours ago, aubaseball said:

Nailed it!!!!   Nicely put and appreciated.   Some on here just don’t get it or expect others to follow their agendas or else “you’re a trumper” or “conspiracy theorists “.   

Yep. I have not said one thing in favor of taking or not taking the Vaccine in this thread. I have only said that I respect everybody's right to choose what they feel is best for themselves and those they love.

For that I have been called Selfish. I have been called a conspiracy theorist. I was called an "anti-vaxxer" I have been told I should stay off Facebook. I have been told I should be "ashamed" of myself.

I love how if you choose not to get the shot then you are automatically "misinformed" "uneducated" "Trumper"  "irresponsible" or just plain "selfish" . It doesn't matter the reason you choose not to. It will be politicized and you will be chastised period. 

I won't even bother pointing out the irony in everything I just mentioned. I will just let ignorance be ignorance.

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

14 hours ago, AUght2win said:

 

Riddle me this. If there's *no* scientific reason to fear the longterm effects of a vaccine, then why do some vaccines take years, decades even, and grueling, multi-stage trials to vet before they are released for public use? 

Some vaccines take years, decades even, and grueling, multi-stage trials to vet before they are released for public use to make sure there is   *no* scientific reason to fear the long term effects of a vaccine.

 

This went faster because most vaccines do not have hundreds of thousands of doctors world wide working on them with a tremendous sense of urgency at the same time.

Serious side effects that could cause a long-term health problem are extremely unlikely following any vaccination, including COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccine monitoring has historically shown that side effects generally happen within six weeks of receiving a vaccine dose.

[AU9377 4,913]

3 hours ago, auskip07 said:

Conspiracy?   no....   a need to sensationalize and possibly skew the numbers for political reasons?  yes

 

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

I don't know the facts behind that story, but am I surprised that things like that happen?  No.  That doesn't change the seriousness of what we are dealing with at all.

[CoffeeTiger 5,082]

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

1 minute ago, AU9377 said:

I don't know the facts behind that story, but am I surprised that things like that happen?  No.  That doesn't change the seriousness of what we are dealing with at all.

it was happening frequently and in many different places. Colorado changed the way they confirmed and reported Covid deaths and this resulted in a 25% drop in deaths. I know people personally that had deaths in the family and they were marked as Covid when in reality it wasn't Covid.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

21 minutes ago, CoffeeTiger said:

While there is definitely a point here in this image, the same can be made for the other side of the argument.

 

[homersapien 11,352]

What history tells us about the delta variant — and the variants that will follow

By John M. Barry

John M. Barry is the author of “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History” and Distinguished Scholar at Tulane University’s School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine.

 

As is obvious to everyone, the delta variant is surging. Given its infectiousness, this is hardly surprising; as covid-19 adapted to humans, variants became successively better at infecting people, and delta is more than three times as contagious as it was spreading last year. And delta is not the last variant we will see.

This raises many questions, and the three most important are: Will it become more virulent — causing more serious disease and death? Will the virus escape the protection natural immunity and vaccines now afford? And, if the answer to either of the first two questions is yes, how can we respond?

Right now, the best we can do is make educated guesses. There’s no solid information yet on delta’s virulence, although it seems more dangerous. It wreaked havoc in India, but it’s difficult to know how much of the death toll can be attributed to increased virulence and how much to an overwhelmed health-care system. Anecdotal accounts here also speak to increased virulence, including in younger adults. We also know that delta produces about 1,200 times the viral load of the original virus — and viral load correlates with severity and death. That fact is not comforting.

Neither is history. All five influenza pandemics we have details about developed more virulent variants before settling down. The pandemic beginning in 1889 was more than twice as deadly in Britain in the second year as in the first, and in many countries the third year was deadlier still.

In 1918′s epidemic, the first wave was both mild — the British Grand Fleet suffered 10,313 first wave cases but only four deaths — and not very transmissible. A variant caused an explosive second wave.

The 1957 influenza pandemic led to a significant increase in deaths, but in 1960, after both a vaccine was developed and many people supposedly had immunity from prior infection, a variant caused peak mortality to exceed pandemic levels.

In 1968, the United States saw the most deaths in the first year, but in Europe — again after a vaccine and naturally acquired immunity were in play — the second year was deadlier.

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, variants emerged that caused breakthrough infections and increased viral loads and deaths in the United States, and studies found “greater burden of severe illness in the year after the pandemic” outside the United States as well.

As a general rule, viruses do eventually become less dangerous as they adapt to new hosts and as immune systems respond better. That should happen here eventually. But whether or not delta has increased in virulence, another still more dangerous variant may surface.

That makes the next question even more important: Will covid-19, in some form, escape immune protection? The answer is: probably.

Unless its opportunity to mutate is cut off by stopping its spread — an impossibility with billions worldwide unprotected by vaccine — eventually a variant will likely emerge that evades current vaccines and natural infection. Studies of coronaviruses that cause the common cold demonstrate that mutations over time cause the ability of antibodies to neutralize those viruses.

Laboratory studies also show a decline in neutralizing antibodies against covid-19 after a year, although antibodies remain effective enough to provide protection, and other elements of the immune system remain robust. Outside the laboratory, the gamma variant seemed to almost entirely escape natural immunity from prior infection, and vaccine effectiveness has declined marginally against several variants.

What does this tell us about plotting our next steps?

First, even if the virus does escape vaccine protection, it will happen very gradually — and does not necessarily mean disaster. We should have time to adjust vaccines, and so far, Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax (which will likely get emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration soon) all protect against all known variants. But even if their efficacy declines significantly, they will still save huge numbers of lives. Influenza vaccines are routinely only 30 to 50 percent effective in preventing illness but still exceed 80 percent efficacy in preventing ICU admission.

Second, whether we need booster shots with existing vaccines or not, we will eventually require updated vaccines targeted against the latest variant, just as we do each year for influenza. Even if delta is the worst variant we see, the virus will continue to mutate. As with influenza, the goal is to develop a vaccine that protects against all variants.

In the best case, delta will be the most dangerous variant to emerge, our immune systems will learn to respond, trained by vaccines or infection, and we will achieve the Holy Grail of a kind of herd immunity. This will still not mean actual immunity; it will simply mean the disease becomes endemic, and infections and deaths will continue to occur, but in much reduced numbers. Meanwhile, for at least a year — and likely longer — the vast majority of the world will continue to see significant mortality and social and economic disruption.

The pandemic isn’t over, not even for those who are vaccinated. The virus remains the boss. Covid-19 may still surprise us, and if it does, at this still middle-aged stage of the pandemic, it’s more likely to be an unpleasant surprise.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/26/what-history-tells-us-about-delta-variant-variants-that-will-follow/

 

[auskip07 930]

39 minutes ago, AU9377 said:

I don't know the facts behind that story, but am I surprised that things like that happen?  No.  That doesn't change the seriousness of what we are dealing with at all.

What determines the seriousness of what we are dealing with?   The deaths caused by  the virus...   so yes  it absolutely does change the seriousness of what we are dealing with.    Accuracy matters. 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

3 hours ago, auskip07 said:

Conspiracy?   no....   a need to sensationalize and possibly skew the numbers for political reasons?  yes

 

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

  So almost invariably every nation world wide is supporting this sensationalism to fool you??   Iraq, Israel,  Iran, France, Japan Italy, UK, Russia etc have all planned  this giant political agenda agreeing with each other?

I cant think of any other topic that so many adversary countries have ever agreed on. 

Its a world wide conspiracy!  the world is out to get you.

[stoic-one 1,543]

Tread lightly here, y'all.

 

 

 

[auskip07 930]

16 minutes ago, Quietmaninthecorner said:

  So almost invariably every nation world wide is supporting this sensationalism to fool you??   Iraq, Israel,  Iran, France, Japan Italy, UK, Russia etc have all planned  this giant political agenda agreeing with each other?

I cant think of any other topic that so many adversary countries have ever agreed on. 

Its a world wide conspiracy!  the world is out to get you.

Dont most of those countries follow the WHO guidelines/ Recommendations? (rhetorical question)     So is its not hard to believe they are doing the same thing.   

This might be news to you but not every country was founded on individual rights like America. 

I dont know how other countries count their death numbers and i dont care   but what i have noticed is inaccuracy of how its counted in this country.  That my point   you can read into that what ever you choose.... because i know you will 

[AUght2win 6,816]

2 hours ago, AU9377 said:

You are comparing the development of vaccines to prevent chicken pox (to pick one) to the vaccine developed to stop the spread of a never before seen respiratory virus that is airborne and killing hundreds of thousands.  If you are diagnosed with cancer, would you want the FDA to tell you that they are studying the MRNA vaccines and it isn't available even though they have been studying the vaccine deployment method for years or would you want to have access to a treatment that has proven to be effective and has not shown to be problematic in trials over 12 months and including 100,000 or more participants?

Would you suggest not vaccinating children against Polio, mumps and a laundry list of other possibly deadly viruses? Why would doctors spend their lives finding ways to heal people, yet in this one instance all be part of some sinister conspiracy to harm you?  Think about that.

This is exactly the problem. Covid ISNT polio, the mumps, or a deadly virus to young healthy people. It isn't. The science has proven this beyond a shred of doubt. 

People take experimental cancer treatments when they are terminal and have nothing to lose. That's what I don't get about this argument. You guys act like young, healthy children are actually at risk. They aren't. At all. And from their perspective, it's unnecessary to take an experimental vaccine they don't need.

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

15 minutes ago, auskip07 said:

Dont most of those countries follow the WHO guidelines/ Recommendations? (rhetorical question)     So is its not hard to believe they are doing the same thing.   

This might be news to you but not every country was founded on individual rights like America. 

I dont know how other countries count their death numbers and i dont care   but what i have noticed is inaccuracy of how its counted in this country.   

So what is the end game of all this grand illusion across all continents? 

[AUght2win 6,816]

3 hours ago, homersapien said:

Yes, you have the right to refuse vaccination, just like most Republicans are doing.  That doesn't make you an "adult" it makes you a misinformed, selfish individual who is irresponsible.  But you do you.

(And getting vaccinated is not anywhere near the same level of imposition as being forced to give birth regardless of circumstance.)

I reeeeeeally wouldn't be calling anyone selfish if in the next sentence you frame *not* killing a fetus as "being forced to give birth".

[stoic-one 1,543]

Mkay, I believe we're done here.