this site predicts we go 6-6

[Mikey 16,566]

21 hours ago, gravejd said:

Losses to Penn State, Bama, Uga, A&M, LSU, Arky, and Ol Miss look very possible. I'm not predicting we lose them all but those are all teams that could be pretty good next season. 

On the other hand:

LSU was 5-5 last season and we beat them 48-11. I don't see that as a loss this time. (Yes, we finally beat the "cigar jinx")

If we are improved at all, Arky and Ol' Miss should be wins.

A&M....Did Jimbo peak there last year? This one could be tough.

Penn State: Was 4-5 last year and they didn't beat a team with a winning record. Based on that alone, I expect to win this one.

Bammer and UGA: Both at home. We are 3-1 against those two in the last four home games. That doesn't make us beating them this year likely, but it certainly indicates that AU beating them is possible.

Before we all start making "official" predictions I'd like to see how camp and fall practice turn out. A rash of injuries could change a lot.

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

5 hours ago, Mikey said:

Before we all start making "official" predictions I'd like to see how camp and fall practice turn out. A rash of injuries could change a lot.

I laughed because I know that come the season, my "official" predictions where AU is concerned will be what they always are. I wouldn't care if our entire schedule was nothing but the top tier of each division plus a couple of out of conference games against Ohio State and Clemson, I'd still predict AU to win every game. (This is why I do not bet. LoL's!)

[AUwent 3,747]

5 hours ago, Mikey said:

On the other hand:

LSU was 5-5 last season and we beat them 48-11. I don't see that as a loss this time. (Yes, we finally beat the "cigar jinx")

If we are improved at all, Arky and Ol' Miss should be wins.

A&M....Did Jimbo peak there last year? This one could be tough.

Penn State: Was 4-5 last year and they didn't beat a team with a winning record. Based on that alone, I expect to win this one.

Bammer and UGA: Both at home. We are 3-1 against those two in the last four home games. That doesn't make us beating them this year likely, but it certainly indicates that AU beating them is possible.

Before we all start making "official" predictions I'd like to see how camp and fall practice turn out. A rash of injuries could change a lot.

I see anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. I obviously haven't always agreed with you but I think you're right that if people are using last year's performance as a cause for pessimism (which I think is somewhat understandable) than you can't just assume LSU and PSU are going to be world beaters like many seem to think.

Edited July 31, 2021 by AUwent

[oracle79 3,569]

Instead of starting another thread, does anyone know if @StatTiger does these kind of analyses any more?

His last sentences are pretty informative:

"When I first began to track these numbers, it was only for Auburn's roster. During the Tuberville era, his better teams came during years he had a high number of experienced players to make up for a lack of overall talent. From 2004-2015, Auburn has compiled a record of 67-12 during the 6 seasons they had at least 20 players with 20-gms of experience and at least 10 players with 30+ gms of experience. During the six seasons they did not, they compiled a record of 39-36"

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

3 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Instead of starting another thread, does anyone know if @StatTiger does these kind of analyses any more?

 

Dunno if Stat is doing those any more or not. Just chiming in to say that his analysis kind of reminds me of the way Phil Steele goes about predicting upcoming seasons. Experience counts.

[AUwent 3,747]

4 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Instead of starting another thread, does anyone know if @StatTiger does these kind of analyses any more?

His last sentences are pretty informative:

"When I first began to track these numbers, it was only for Auburn's roster. During the Tuberville era, his better teams came during years he had a high number of experienced players to make up for a lack of overall talent. From 2004-2015, Auburn has compiled a record of 67-12 during the 6 seasons they had at least 20 players with 20-gms of experience and at least 10 players with 30+ gms of experience. During the six seasons they did not, they compiled a record of 39-36"

So, will there be a season coming up soon where that’s the case?

Edited August 1, 2021 by AUwent

[oracle79 3,569]

3 hours ago, AUwent said:

So, will there be a season coming up soon where that’s the case?

I think we're pretty experienced this year, but not sure if we meet @StatTiger's threshold.