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Auburn vs A&M score prediction


gravejd
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Hard game to predict IMO. I can tell i'm starting to get on the AU hype train with the Ol Miss win. And with that i'm probably thinking AU is a little better than they really are. But i really thought we dominated ol miss and should have won that by 21 pts. We didn't and i have to keep in mind that it is the consistency monster that AU is fighting right now. While we have looked better overall i can still go back and watch that second half against ol miss where the offense just could not get out of their own way. Turnovers...stupid penalties etc....etc. 

I'm going with 26 - 19 AU. A&M has the better defense and AU has the better offense. But i think our experience at the QB position with the coaching staffs ability to scheme guys open is going to be what puts us over the top in this one. Hard for me to see a team completely shutting this offense down (even uga did not shut us down...outside of the RZ). I think special teams are going to be big in this one and after the lashing by Harsin i expect our ST play to actually be special in this one. I'm thinking like 4 FG from Carlson kind of day. 

I really like the chance our defense has to make A&M have a long day. It all depends on being able to stop the run and we've done a good job of that as long as McClain is playing. I expect we'll get ate up occasionally by TEs over the middle but while they get some big plays and pts of that.....i don't think they beat us with it. The tables are turned this week and they are coming off a bye so they will give their offense an advantage and i expect the 1st quarter at least to look rough. Just hope we can adjust quick and keep them out of the endzone while we find our way. 

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It's an away game.

aTm is coming on strong.

Haven't been right yet.

Gotta keep the Mojo going.

 

aTm 25

AU 23

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If we can give Bo time and not allow their front 7 to be too disruptive we have a good chance. Think it’s gonna be a lower scoring game with the team that has the ball last gets a shot. I’ll say good guys 24-20. 

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The good guys win. I think the bend don’t break will specifically work wel against the aggies. Also, this is why games like penn state are so important early on. We’ve played in hostile environments. 

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AU - 42

atm - 24

- yea of little faith :wareagle:

Edited by AUx
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Sorry for the long post...if TLDR, go to bottom...

I don’t post much but this one is perplexing, the teams seem close, so I did some stat comparisons (I’m not StatTiger, so TIFWIW)


Auburn has played 5 teams (PSU, LSU, UGA, ARK, OM) in the top 35 of ESPN’s FPI, A&M has played 3 (ARK, MSU, UAT).  It seems the narrative is that A&M is better than AU talent-wise, especially up front. Will we be able to move the ball and slow them down or will we get steamrolled?


So I accumulated the stats from those games to see trends, ignoring the games against weak competition. (sidenote: their last two wins…Mizzou FPI is 81 and USCe is 82, so, is A&M really “trending up”?)  Can’t ignore their win vs UAT and our loss to UGA, however.   Anyway, the average of the FPI of our top 5 opponents and their top 3 opponents happens to be 20.


So here are the stats averaged from those games:  
Points scored were 25 by us and 24 by them, points against us were 25 points against them 28.
Ground yards gained 147 avg 4.0 for us, 126 avg 4.8 for them
Ground yards allowed 141 avg 3.2 for us, 127 avg 3.6 for them
Passing yards gained 263 ypa 7.4 for us, 190 avg 6.8 ypa for them
Passing yards allowed 279 ypa 8.2 for us, 341 avg 8.3 ypa for them
Turnovers gained and lost averaged 1 for both teams and the highest net in any of those games was +-1, so not really a factor
Penalties against us 42 average (high 49/low 34) Penalties for us 39 (high 50/low 18)
Penalties against them 61 avg (high 75/low 50) Penalties for them 71 (high 82/low 65)


Our total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs the 5 opponents is negative 10. Our best was +95 vs LSU and worst -114 vs UGA
Their total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs their top 3 opponents is negative 152. Those are -171 vs ARK -141 vs MSU and -143 vs UAT.  Note also they had a kickoff return for TD vs UAT, so that’s effectively substitutes for 75 yds of offense.
Penalties look to benefit us by maybe 25 yards, note that they were penalized 90 yards in their last game.


So, it appears that the run games net out about equal.  The passing games do not appear equal.  We give up about as many yards passing as we gain.  They give up more than 150 yards more than they gain.
However, their passing D is skewed by 408 given up to MSU, but only allowing 30 on the ground. 


So, all this analysis aside, two big questions regarding how each performed against “the best”.
1.    Did we leave points on the field vs UGA and are we closer to that level than indicated?  Most would say “yes”.
2.    Was their win against UAT “legit”?   My recollection of their game vs Alabama is of an impressive showing, but also one of several blown coverages by UAT, similar to UAT vs UT.  UAT has youth in their DB’s.  Plus, the kickoff return.  


So, here’s my take…
1.    Our passing game needs to continue to perform and exploit their weakness, this needs to lead to early points, take the crowd out of the game as much as possible.  We don’t need to “establish the run” Gus style which means “hard headed”. Mix it up.
2.    If our coverage can stay tight, their passing game is not remarkable and the pressure to keep up will hopefully lead to a key interception or two.
3.    Wind isn’t forecasted to be a factor (light crosswind).  Need all touchbacks.
4.    Auburn has played a tougher schedule, so experience can make a difference. Couple their UAT win with two recent wins over terrible Mizzou and USCe and overconfidence is very possible. Auburn “still getting no respect” is a great motivator.
5.    Turnovers and mistakes by us will most likely result in a loss, it’s just too much to overcome.


Auburn 30 A&M 24
 

Edited by ClarkGriswold
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Bend but don't break damn explodes.  Calzada + Spiller moves them down field easy, Spiller rams it in w/in the RZ.  Spiller's running wears us down & we give up points for the 1st time in Q4

Offense struggles vs a good defense.

Auburn 17

Aggies 41

Edited by W.E.D
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1 hour ago, ClarkGriswold said:

Sorry for the long post...if TLDR, go to bottom...

I don’t post much but this one is perplexing, the teams seem close, so I did some stat comparisons (I’m not StatTiger, so TIFWIW)


Auburn has played 5 teams (PSU, LSU, UGA, ARK, OM) in the top 35 of ESPN’s FPI, A&M has played 3 (ARK, MSU, UAT).  It seems the narrative is that A&M is better than AU talent-wise, especially up front. Will we be able to move the ball and slow them down or will we get steamrolled?


So I accumulated the stats from those games to see trends, ignoring the games against weak competition. (sidenote: their last two wins…Mizzou FPI is 81 and USCe is 82, so, is A&M really “trending up”?)  Can’t ignore their win vs UAT and our loss to UGA, however.   Anyway, the average of the FPI of our top 5 opponents and their top 3 opponents happens to be 20.


So here are the stats averaged from those games:  
Points scored were 25 by us and 24 by them, points against us were 25 points against them 28.
Ground yards gained 147 avg 4.0 for us, 126 avg 4.8 for them
Ground yards allowed 141 avg 3.2 for us, 127 avg 3.6 for them
Passing yards gained 263 ypa 7.4 for us, 190 avg 6.8 ypa for them
Passing yards allowed 279 ypa 8.2 for us, 341 avg 8.3 ypa for them
Turnovers gained and lost averaged 1 for both teams and the highest net in any of those games was +-1, so not really a factor
Penalties against us 42 average (high 49/low 34) Penalties for us 39 (high 50/low 18)
Penalties against them 61 avg (high 75/low 50) Penalties for them 71 (high 82/low 65)


Our total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs the 5 opponents is negative 10. Our best was +95 vs LSU and worst -114 vs UGA
Their total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs their top 3 opponents is negative 152. Those are -171 vs ARK -141 vs MSU and -143 vs UAT.  Note also they had a kickoff return for TD vs UAT, so that’s effectively substitutes for 75 yds of offense.
Penalties look to benefit us by maybe 25 yards, note that they were penalized 90 yards in their last game.


So, it appears that the run games net out about equal.  The passing games do not appear equal.  We give up about as many yards passing as we gain.  They give up more than 150 yards more than they gain.
However, their passing D is skewed by 408 given up to MSU, but only allowing 30 on the ground. 


So, all this analysis aside, two big questions regarding how each performed against “the best”.
1.    Did we leave points on the field vs UGA and are we closer to that level than indicated?  Most would say “yes”.
2.    Was their win against UAT “legit”?   My recollection of their game vs Alabama is of an impressive showing, but also one of several blown coverages by UAT, similar to UAT vs UT.  UAT has youth in their DB’s.  Plus, the kickoff return.  


So, here’s my take…
1.    Our passing game needs to continue to perform and exploit their weakness, this needs to lead to early points, take the crowd out of the game as much as possible.  We don’t need to “establish the run” Gus style which means “hard headed”. Mix it up.
2.    If our coverage can stay tight, their passing game is not remarkable and the pressure to keep up will hopefully lead to a key interception or two.
3.    Wind isn’t forecasted to be a factor (light crosswind).  Need all touchbacks.
4.    Auburn has played a tougher schedule, so experience can make a difference. Couple their UAT win with two recent wins over terrible Mizzou and USCe and overconfidence is very possible. Auburn “still getting no respect” is a great motivator.
5.    Turnovers and mistakes by us will most likely result in a loss, it’s just too much to overcome.


Auburn 30 A&M 24
 

200w.gif.1ced89aacda3a3f1519af78c2a2f08ff.gif

Dude!

You put way more thought into that than I did.

Wow! I nominate you for the new StatTiger position.

Impressive.

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37-28. We get a late pick 6 

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