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Auburn vs A&M score prediction


gravejd

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6 hours ago, ClarkGriswold said:

Sorry for the long post...if TLDR, go to bottom...

I don’t post much but this one is perplexing, the teams seem close, so I did some stat comparisons (I’m not StatTiger, so TIFWIW)


Auburn has played 5 teams (PSU, LSU, UGA, ARK, OM) in the top 35 of ESPN’s FPI, A&M has played 3 (ARK, MSU, UAT).  It seems the narrative is that A&M is better than AU talent-wise, especially up front. Will we be able to move the ball and slow them down or will we get steamrolled?


So I accumulated the stats from those games to see trends, ignoring the games against weak competition. (sidenote: their last two wins…Mizzou FPI is 81 and USCe is 82, so, is A&M really “trending up”?)  Can’t ignore their win vs UAT and our loss to UGA, however.   Anyway, the average of the FPI of our top 5 opponents and their top 3 opponents happens to be 20.


So here are the stats averaged from those games:  
Points scored were 25 by us and 24 by them, points against us were 25 points against them 28.
Ground yards gained 147 avg 4.0 for us, 126 avg 4.8 for them
Ground yards allowed 141 avg 3.2 for us, 127 avg 3.6 for them
Passing yards gained 263 ypa 7.4 for us, 190 avg 6.8 ypa for them
Passing yards allowed 279 ypa 8.2 for us, 341 avg 8.3 ypa for them
Turnovers gained and lost averaged 1 for both teams and the highest net in any of those games was +-1, so not really a factor
Penalties against us 42 average (high 49/low 34) Penalties for us 39 (high 50/low 18)
Penalties against them 61 avg (high 75/low 50) Penalties for them 71 (high 82/low 65)


Our total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs the 5 opponents is negative 10. Our best was +95 vs LSU and worst -114 vs UGA
Their total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs their top 3 opponents is negative 152. Those are -171 vs ARK -141 vs MSU and -143 vs UAT.  Note also they had a kickoff return for TD vs UAT, so that’s effectively substitutes for 75 yds of offense.
Penalties look to benefit us by maybe 25 yards, note that they were penalized 90 yards in their last game.


So, it appears that the run games net out about equal.  The passing games do not appear equal.  We give up about as many yards passing as we gain.  They give up more than 150 yards more than they gain.
However, their passing D is skewed by 408 given up to MSU, but only allowing 30 on the ground. 


So, all this analysis aside, two big questions regarding how each performed against “the best”.
1.    Did we leave points on the field vs UGA and are we closer to that level than indicated?  Most would say “yes”.
2.    Was their win against UAT “legit”?   My recollection of their game vs Alabama is of an impressive showing, but also one of several blown coverages by UAT, similar to UAT vs UT.  UAT has youth in their DB’s.  Plus, the kickoff return.  


So, here’s my take…
1.    Our passing game needs to continue to perform and exploit their weakness, this needs to lead to early points, take the crowd out of the game as much as possible.  We don’t need to “establish the run” Gus style which means “hard headed”. Mix it up.
2.    If our coverage can stay tight, their passing game is not remarkable and the pressure to keep up will hopefully lead to a key interception or two.
3.    Wind isn’t forecasted to be a factor (light crosswind).  Need all touchbacks.
4.    Auburn has played a tougher schedule, so experience can make a difference. Couple their UAT win with two recent wins over terrible Mizzou and USCe and overconfidence is very possible. Auburn “still getting no respect” is a great motivator.
5.    Turnovers and mistakes by us will most likely result in a loss, it’s just too much to overcome.


Auburn 30 A&M 24
 

Great post. While I don’t dig as deep into the stats, what you said, makes really good sense. My simple take on things is this: 

We have really been coached up this year by a brand new competent staff, compared to the last 2 years or so. 
We have talent no doubt, but I’m not sure it’s enough to overwhelm a team that just as we are, is on the rise. 
The SEC is brutal, especially the West. I do think the game will remain close, but by my very simplistic logic, I do believe our mini run will end in College Station. I do think we could still win 8 to 9 games, which is a great season considering the turnover and what our genius predecessor left in the cupboard. My final score is: 

TAMU- 29

AU-     22. 
 

Hard fought game, but after 4 in a row at College Station, I do fear it ends this year. As usual, I hope I’m very wrong! WDE! 

 

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Harsin and staff are very good at analyzing their opponent and designing a game plan to counter them. He also has a methodical process that prepares the team each day, building on the previous day, while keeping the team focused on the important tasks that will get them ready. The team will be prepared for the game.   

AU- 28

TAMU- 20

Edited by IronMan70
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1 hour ago, bigbird said:

That'd make for such a fun day

You betcha!  If it happens, a whole 4 liters of Carlsberg will be on tap for the night.

Don't know how my wife will put up with me...

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2 minutes ago, 1716AU said:

You betcha!  If it happens, a whole 4 liters of Carlsberg will be on tap for the night.

Don't know how my wife will put up with me...

If need be, I'll be happy to come supervise the consumption process

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1 minute ago, bigbird said:

If need be, I'll be happy to come supervise the consumption process

You are welcome in this home in the Commonwealth of Virginia ANYTIME.  WE will praise the Lord, and thank Him for His bounty, and consume the best Beer in the world!!

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Auburn 31

TAMU 24

I have a weird, relaxed feeling about Auburn. TAMU is very talented but Auburn is aging like a fine wine. Having Pappoe back is such a big deal. Defense will do what it can to limit big plays which will help the offense. Bo has a good game and they are able to run the ball. Fundamental football will win it. Dropped passes would kill us.
 

Aggies have improved a lot since September but I still don’t trust them to beat Alabama and Auburn in the same season. 
 

Would be such a massive win. Hope we get out of there with no injuries. 

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What a difference good QB and O-Line play makes. I was predicting 5 wins at most on the beginning of the season and now I believe this same team that should have lost to GA. St.can go into College Station and win. Gotta love Aiburn football.  War Eagle and IGTBAAT!

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20 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Bend but don't break damn explodes.  Calzada + Spiller moves them down field easy, Spiller rams it in w/in the RZ.  Spiller's running wears us down & we give up points for the 1st time in Q4

Offense struggles vs a good defense.

Auburn 17

Aggies 41

Colorado and Arky held them to 10. They’re averaging 29 PPG, we’re averaging an allowed 20 per game. There’s no way they hang 41 on us unless it’s a shootout. 
 

im thinking a 20-17 game, hopefully the good guys on top. 

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55 minutes ago, ThereGoesDavis said:

Colorado and Arky held them to 10. They’re averaging 29 PPG, we’re averaging an allowed 20 per game. There’s no way they hang 41 on us unless it’s a shootout. 
 

im thinking a 20-17 game, hopefully the good guys on top. 

Don't really disagree, but I'm worried about of defense and philosophy and how we let below avg QBs have field days.

Maybe it'll be another week before I stop fretting about Mason, lol. Maybe the damn holds again....but I feel like we're playing with fire a bit 

Edited by W.E.D
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1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Don't really disagree, but I'm worried about of defense and philosophy and how we let below avg QBs have field days.

Maybe it'll be another week before I stop fretting about Mason, lol. Maybe the damn holds again....but I feel like we're playing with fire a bit 

Save that for next week.  I’m concerned about how our defense plays right into the hands of the MSU offense.  I have too many MSU fans around me.  We cannot lose that game!

TAMU is going to want to establish the run. Outside of the GASt. game (😢🤦‍♂️), we’ve done a pretty good job on run D.   Hopefully we limit their run game enough to force Costanza ($1 to Seinfeld) to have to try and win it for them. In that scenario, I like our chances.  

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50 minutes ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

Save that for next week.  I’m concerned about how our defense plays right into the hands of the MSU offense.  I have too many MSU fans around me.  We cannot lose that game!

TAMU is going to want to establish the run. Outside of the GASt. game (😢🤦‍♂️), we’ve done a pretty good job on run D.   Hopefully we limit their run game enough to force Costanza ($1 to Seinfeld) to have to try and win it for them. In that scenario, I like our chances.  

ha. Trying not to worry about next week, but I have the same fears there too.

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My prediction: This is the week the team is just 'in the zone.' It's a logical point where everything has slowed down, O and D execute most plays to a "T", and they hit on all five-and-a-half cylinders, while aTm's machine runs out of oil and throws a rod or two. The 3 weeks after will be a struggle for AU to stay at this peak. But tomorrow Auburn is the real deal. During the ESPN aTM pick, Corso chokes on his Juicy Fruit and poops his pants coughing it up. Lots of uncomfortable-to-look-at guy-hugs and tears at kyle field. Despite the SEC officiating office calling-in a targeting replay for a no-contact AU offsides penalty, Auburn still trounces aTm 42 - 24. 

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I know everyone was happy when they beat bama, but the win gave TAM some credence and they have played well since....I know SC and MIZZO aren't world beaters.....for them beating bama was their (coach) major goal.....because we have Coach Harsin, he'll have us ready and we will win....by 9 points... 

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12 hours ago, AUwent said:

So...what is Chigaroogarem and why is A&M so obsessed with getting there before everyone else? 🤨

https://myaggienation.com/history_traditions/aggie_glossary/aggie-glossary-on-gig-em-howdy-hump-it-and-whoop/article_87fd00d6-10e5-11e3-8965-0019bb2963f4.html

 

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