Kentucky - a preview

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Been a while since I took a shot at one of these, so let's see if I remember how to do it. UK is a talented group, but this is a different AU team than in years past. Different even from the recent years where we were good. The primary reason is the quality and depth of our bigs. Kessler, Smith, Williams, Cardwell, Cambridge and Flanigan is as good a group of 3,4 & 5 that I remember at AU. 

Kentucky reminds me of Alabama but with much better bigs. They score from 2 with dribble drive and rebound well. They don’t shoot it that well but they do a good job of moving the ball and getting good looks. Wheeler is a solid point who looks to pass first and score second averaging nearly 8 assists per game. They have balanced scoring with 5 guys averaging double figures, and three more averaging more than 5. Their depth is good but not great. Only 7 players averaging double digit minutes, but 4 other guys average 6+ minutes.  Our bench has a significant advantage in production tough, as I would estimate UK gets 90%+ of their overall production from their first 7 guys. 

Their team is obviously talented, but the only one I'm truely concerned about us being able to handle is their center Tshiebwe. He is a beast. He is what a classic 5 look like. He isn't going to step out and hit shots, but he will hit you in the mouth. He leads them in points and rebounds averaging 16 and 15 respectively. Kessler is going to get his toughness tested in a way we haven't seen yet. We saw the kid from Florida and Carolina give him trouble, but this dude here is different. Kessler CANNOT just hang out and play behind him all night. He will have to do a better job of establishing himself outside the block and/or fronting some in the post. We will also see how much he has learned from this foul troubles as UK will attack the rim. 

Matchup-wise, it looks pretty even, with us have an advantage at the 4 and them having the advantage at the 2. KD will be in for a touch challenge offensively and defensively. Smith will be guarded by some size and some quickness, and UK has multiple guys they can throw at him. I've already discussed Kessler, so the other interesting thing will be who does Zep guard. Tyty is their primary shot taker, and Zep may spend time on him and Wheeler. Texas AM had some success pressuring the guards out high and trapping so we may try to simulate that a bit as well. 

They have the advantage rebounding. They are elite at it and they are led by the best in the game Tshiebwe. We have to dig deep and avoid getting killed on the boards. I've posted in other places about my concerns with our rebounding habits and this is where I fear it rears its ugly head. We get hammered, they get out in transition and we lose. 

We have the advantage in blocks/steals. We are getting a block or steal on nearly 25% of teams possessions. That may help us on the rebounding front if we can have similar success against UK. This leads us out into transition and off we go. 

We are also a better outside shooting team. In part because we take more, but mainly because we have more guys that can and will shoot it. 

One other positive is UK has not played well on the road. Actually, the look pretty bad on the road. They are 2-2 averaging around only 66 points. The atmosphere looks like it may play a role in this one, and obviously in our favor. 

We do not need our best game to win this one,  but we can't hurt ourselves either.  I personally think if both teams play to their averages it is a coin flip . I like our chances at home obviously, but I think we need someone to step up.  Smith and Kessler are the big names, but I think the guy who has a chance to steal the show is Flannigan.  His mix of power and shooting is under appreciated, probably by me as well . With the defensive attention others will get, I would like to see Flannigan be extra aggressive in this one.  

This is a big game.  A lot of eyes will be on AU after all the talk about getting snubbed for the #1 spot in the AP poll.  Additionally, no matter what, you're not the favorite to win this league until you beat UK.  They have earned that place and that's where they still sit. 

Will post more in this thread as the game approaches hopefully ...

War Eagle!!!!

[AUGoo 2,659]

2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

One other positive is UK has not played well on the road. Actually, the look pretty bad on the road. They are 2-2 averaging around only 66 points. The atmosphere looks like it may play a role in this one, and obviously in our favor. 

I'm hoping this comes into play big time.  I saw some of the UT beat down. They shot almost 69%.

Also saw the first half of the aTm game and they looked pretty pedestrian.  I'm hoping the home court will come into play.

Will be interesting to see how they play Tshiebwe.  

I'm betting there's a plan.

[boisnumber1 2,818]

2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Been a while since I took a shot at one of these, so let's see if I remember how to do it. UK is a talented group, but this is a different AU team than in years past. Different even from the recent years where we were good. The primary reason is the quality and depth of our bigs. Kessler, Smith, Williams, Cardwell, Cambridge and Flanigan is as good a group of 3,4 & 5 that I remember at AU. 

Kentucky reminds me of Alabama but with much better bigs. They score from 2 with dribble drive and rebound well. They don’t shoot it that well but they do a good job of moving the ball and getting good looks. Wheeler is a solid point who looks to pass first and score second averaging nearly 8 assists per game. They have balanced scoring with 5 guys averaging double figures, and three more averaging more than 5. Their depth is good but not great. Only 7 players averaging double digit minutes, but 4 other guys average 6+ minutes. Our bench has a significant advantage in production tough, as I would estimate UK gets 90%+ of their overall production from their first 7 guys.  Their team is obviously talented, but the only one I'm truely concerned about us being able to handle is their center Tshiebwe. He is a beast. He is what a classic 5 look like. He isn't going to step out and hit shots, but he will hit you in the mouth. He leads them in points and rebounds averaging 16 and 15 respectively. Kessler is going to get his toughness tested in a way we haven't seen yet. We saw the kid from Florida and Carolina give him trouble, but this dude here is different. Kessler CANNOT just hang out and play behind him all night. He will have to do a better job of establishing himself outside the block and/or fronting some in the post. We will also see how much he has learned from this foul troubles as UK will attack the rim. 

Matchup-wise, it looks pretty even, with us have an advantage at the 4 and them having the advantage at the 2. KD will be in for a touch challenge offensively and defensively. Smith will be guarded by some size and some quickness, and UK has multiple guys they can throw at him. I've already discussed Kessler, so the other interesting thing will be who does Zep guard. Tyty is their primary shot taker, and Zep may spend time on him and Wheeler. Texas AM had some success pressuring the guards out high and trapping so we may try to simulate that a bit as well. 

They have the advantage rebounding. They are elite at it and they are led by the best in the game Tshiebwe. We have to dig deep and avoid getting killed on the boards. I've posted in other places about my concerns with our rebounding habits and this is where I fear it rears its ugly head. We get hammered, they get out in transition and we lose. 

We have the advantage in blocks/steals. We are getting a block or steal on nearly 25% of teams possessions. That may help us on the rebounding front if we can have similar success against UK. This leads us out into transition and off we go. 
We are also a better outside shooting team. In part because we take more, but mainly because we have more guys that can and will shoot it. 
 

One other positive is UK has not played well on the road. Actually, the look pretty bad on the road. They are 2-2 averaging around only 66 points. The atmosphere looks like it may play a role in this one, and obviously in our favor. 

We do not need our best game to win this one,  but we can't hurt ourselves either. I personally think we both teams play to their averages it is a coin flip. I like our chances at home obviously, but I think we need someone to step up. Smith and Kessler are the big names, but I think the guy who has a chance to steal the show is Flannigan. His mix of power and shooting is under appreciated, probably by me as well. With the defensive attention others will get, I would like to see Flannigan be extra aggressive in this one.  
 

This is a big game. A lot of eyes will be on AU after all the talk about getting snubbed for the #1 spot in the AP poll. Additionally, no matter what, you're not the favorite to win this league until you beat UK. They have earned that place and that's where they still sit. Will post more in this thread as the game approaches hopefully. 

War Eagle!!!!

AF is getting better with every game. Outside shot is finally coming back to him, has more confidence in it. Was obvious for a bit that he didn't trust himself taking it. I hope he is very aggressive going to the goal against KY. He still hesitates at times when it doesn't seem he should. I hope he has his best game.

[MaxCohen216 514]

2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Been a while since I took a shot at one of these, so let's see if I remember how to do it. UK is a talented group, but this is a different AU team than in years past. Different even from the recent years where we were good. The primary reason is the quality and depth of our bigs. Kessler, Smith, Williams, Cardwell, Cambridge and Flanigan is as good a group of 3,4 & 5 that I remember at AU. 

Kentucky reminds me of Alabama but with much better bigs. They score from 2 with dribble drive and rebound well. They don’t shoot it that well but they do a good job of moving the ball and getting good looks. Wheeler is a solid point who looks to pass first and score second averaging nearly 8 assists per game. They have balanced scoring with 5 guys averaging double figures, and three more averaging more than 5. Their depth is good but not great. Only 7 players averaging double digit minutes, but 4 other guys average 6+ minutes. Our bench has a significant advantage in production tough, as I would estimate UK gets 90%+ of their overall production from their first 7 guys.  Their team is obviously talented, but the only one I'm truely concerned about us being able to handle is their center Tshiebwe. He is a beast. He is what a classic 5 look like. He isn't going to step out and hit shots, but he will hit you in the mouth. He leads them in points and rebounds averaging 16 and 15 respectively. Kessler is going to get his toughness tested in a way we haven't seen yet. We saw the kid from Florida and Carolina give him trouble, but this dude here is different. Kessler CANNOT just hang out and play behind him all night. He will have to do a better job of establishing himself outside the block and/or fronting some in the post. We will also see how much he has learned from this foul troubles as UK will attack the rim. 

Matchup-wise, it looks pretty even, with us have an advantage at the 4 and them having the advantage at the 2. KD will be in for a touch challenge offensively and defensively. Smith will be guarded by some size and some quickness, and UK has multiple guys they can throw at him. I've already discussed Kessler, so the other interesting thing will be who does Zep guard. Tyty is their primary shot taker, and Zep may spend time on him and Wheeler. Texas AM had some success pressuring the guards out high and trapping so we may try to simulate that a bit as well. 

They have the advantage rebounding. They are elite at it and they are led by the best in the game Tshiebwe. We have to dig deep and avoid getting killed on the boards. I've posted in other places about my concerns with our rebounding habits and this is where I fear it rears its ugly head. We get hammered, they get out in transition and we lose. 

We have the advantage in blocks/steals. We are getting a block or steal on nearly 25% of teams possessions. That may help us on the rebounding front if we can have similar success against UK. This leads us out into transition and off we go. 
We are also a better outside shooting team. In part because we take more, but mainly because we have more guys that can and will shoot it. 
 

One other positive is UK has not played well on the road. Actually, the look pretty bad on the road. They are 2-2 averaging around only 66 points. The atmosphere looks like it may play a role in this one, and obviously in our favor. 

We do not need our best game to win this one,  but we can't hurt ourselves either. I personally think we both teams play to their averages it is a coin flip. I like our chances at home obviously, but I think we need someone to step up. Smith and Kessler are the big names, but I think the guy who has a chance to steal the show is Flannigan. His mix of power and shooting is under appreciated, probably by me as well. With the defensive attention others will get, I would like to see Flannigan be extra aggressive in this one.  
 

This is a big game. A lot of eyes will be on AU after all the talk about getting snubbed for the #1 spot in the AP poll. Additionally, no matter what, you're not the favorite to win this league until you beat UK. They have earned that place and that's where they still sit. Will post more in this thread as the game approaches hopefully. 

War Eagle!!!!

Good post.

I'm worried about Kessler's match up against their center.  I see no way that Kessler wins the match up, but he can at least hold his own and create a stalemate, while still scoring and playing D.  I'd take that outcome now if I could.

Our depth surpasses theirs, but our point guards can be erratic and turn the ball over too much.

The Jungle will help our cause.

I'd love to see Jabari put on a shooting clinic, but I'd also like to see him take the ball to the hoop on drives and cuts more.

Jaylin Williams.  I love the guy.  He has the tough job of playing behind Jabari, but he can affect a game with his intensity, strength, and determination.

UK just played a tough road game against TAM, and only scored in the sixties.  We are a better defensive team than TAM.

I think we will win.  75-69.

[AUinMS9528 1,086]

Great work @JwgreDeux!!!

1 hour ago, MaxCohen216 said:

I'm worried about Kessler's match up against their center.  I see no way that Kessler wins the match up, but he can at least hold his own and create a stalemate, while still scoring and playing D.  I'd take that outcome now if I could.

Heck yeah!!!  If Kessler stalemates with their 5 that would be huge!  
 

I agree that the home court advantage is going to be big!   The Jungle is unlike anything else!!!   
 

4 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

but I think the guy who has a chance to steal the show is Flannigan. His mix of power and shooting is under appreciated, probably by me as well. With the defensive attention others will get, I would like to see Flannigan be extra aggressive in this one.

If Flan gets back into his pre-injury form, and Jabari gets more aggressive offensively, this team will be nearly unstoppable!   

[AuburnNTexas 7,140]

The 5 matchup could be key. If Kessler can slow Tshiebwe without getting in foul trouble while  blocking shots I think we have a good chance. However if Kessler allows Tshiebwe to get great down low position he will both score and Kessler will get in foul trouble. I would like to see our guards penetrating and going right at Tshiewbe and getting him in foul trouble or dumping to Kessler for dunks. Wendell does that best also it is time for a breakout game by Flanigan.

 

[AUBwins 10,075]

Flan did look more into form than previously.  He had a solid game.  Honestly wonder if Kessler will try not to body the center to save him from foul trouble.  It may actually serve better if we moreso let him get his and shut the others down.  I wouldn't double him and leave the wings open.  Kessler going to have to play smart and focus on altering the shot.  I could actually see Cardwell being a bit rougher defensively because that usually helps him more as he doesn't have the length advantage of Kessler.  Just my thoughts..

[AUBwins 10,075]

Also think Kentucky will have the oop scouted well.  Question is does Wendell still get it to him with his deceptive play in the paint

[tigerman1186 537]

Coach Pearl lives to play Kentucky...he'll have the team ready and the Jungle rocking....

[aucat 69]

With CSP this is very winable @home

 

[Viper 3,132]

Is this the biggest regular season game in AU basketball history? I can’t think of a bigger one. 

[AUGoo 2,659]

Surprised it's a Noon Tip.

Would've thought this a more prime time game.

[slyinsocal 831]

50 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

Surprised it's a Noon Tip.

Would've thought this a more prime time game.

NFL Pregame and Playoff game Bengals @ Titans kicks in after Aub/UK

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, AUGoo said:

Surprised it's a Noon Tip

Would've thought this a more prime time game.

Just like in CFB, Noon has become the new primetime spot. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

4 hours ago, Viper said:

Is this the biggest regular season game in AU basketball history? I can’t think of a bigger one. 

Probably. I remember in 2000 we played UK at home and we were top five and I think they were like top 10 or so. 

[Viper 3,132]

45 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Probably. I remember in 2000 we played UK at home and we were top five and I think they were like top 10 or so. 

Yup. Remember it well and would say it’s now 2nd to this one. 

[autigeremt 6,599]

HUGE game of course. I'm excited to see it unfold. WAR EAGLE! 
 

 

[AUinMS9528 1,086]

Tons of students already camping out in the cold waiting for tickets!   That is crazy, and I love it!!!!!

[LPTiger 5,153]

24 minutes ago, AUinMS9528 said:

Tons of students already camping out in the cold waiting for tickets!   That is crazy, and I love it!!!!!

Send us some pics.

[mustache eagle 2,397]

18 hours ago, AuburnNTexas said:

The 5 matchup could be key. If Kessler can slow Tshiebwe without getting in foul trouble while  blocking shots I think we have a good chance. However if Kessler allows Tshiebwe to get great down low position he will both score and Kessler will get in foul trouble. I would like to see our guards penetrating and going right at Tshiewbe and getting him in foul trouble or dumping to Kessler for dunks. Wendell does that best also it is time for a breakout game by Flanigan.

 

How susceptible is their center to foul trouble?   I’m thinking we attack him.  Cbp has said recently and a lot after the GA game that we need to attack the rim to draw more fouls.  Our wings will be critical to this.I assume green can penetrate against most anyone… can our wings beat their defenders?

im thinking Kessler stays behind their center and just defends vertically the best he can.  Do we see a few minutes from stretch with the sole purpose of leaning on their center?

[mustache eagle 2,397]

36 minutes ago, AUinMS9528 said:

Tons of students already camping out in the cold waiting for tickets!   That is crazy, and I love it!!!!!

My student has friends set up tent before 11:00 this morning 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Saw this on the web:

 

A 10th victory over Kentucky would put Pearl on a short list of coaches with double-digit victories over the Wildcats. The coaches who have beaten Kentucky at least 10 times (in order of wins): 1. Dale Brown 18; 2. Billy Donovan 17; 3. Bob Knight, Ray Mears 15; 5. Roy Skinner 14; 6, Dean Smith 13; 7. Kevin Stallkings 12; 8. Don DeVoe, Wimp Sanderson 11; 10. C.M. Newton, Roy Williams 10.

Read more at: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mark-story/article257518074.html#storylink=cpy

[tgrogan21 6,198]

20 minutes ago, LPTiger said:

Send us some pics.

 

https://twitter.com/CClemente__/status/1484636639167197185?s=20

Edited January 21, 2022 by tgrogan21

[tgrogan21 6,198]

Tried editing this into my previous post but it's not letting me for some reason. Auburn Twitter is amazing!

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

Don’t forget there’s a gymnastics meet tonight.