Russia vs Ukraine

[SaturdayGT 719]

  Surprised there's not a discussion on this...kind of curious to see where everyone sees this going....

I'm not sure we have seen anything like this since Germany invaded Poland. ...the world instability is a little alarming.  China and Taiwan are surely watching, so is Iran and Israel...

[GoAU 1,599]

Yeah, there are so many different ways this can play out it makes your head spin.  
 

Best case (at this point since deterrence obviously failed) is for Russia to bow out under the weight of sanctions - I don’t see Putin’s ego allowing this

Another option - he grabs a few states / territories from the Ukraine (like he did under Obama) and “declares peace”.  This is problematic because it continues to embolden him and it will let them know they can do essentially whatever they want as long as it is in small pieces.  Also sets a really bad precedent for other nations, like China.  
 

Option 3 (this is where it starts to get scarier for us) - Russia digs in it heels, aligns economically with China (and why not, as their economies are pretty complimentary) and goes for the long haul.  If sanctions and military aid start to piss off Putin, he can let Cyber attacks fly to keep us pre-occupied.  Not to mention political destabilization operations- and why not, since we’ve at each other’s throats anyway.  This can have a detrimental effect on us in a big way, and not even need to really get his hands dirty with direct military action against us.  Helps limit escalation from us, but sends a message and buys him time to grab any other real estate he wants.  
 

Option 4 (worst case, but least likely IMO) is we get drawn intentionally or not into a conventional land / sea war in Europe.  This is nasty under the best circumstances and we all know where the worst case one will end up.  
 

I think option 3 seems to be most likely, but there are so many possible variants of this.  The bottom line is Putin is a bully and unless he sees you as a peer or superior he will test you.  He has no fear of Europe whatsoever, and I don’t think he sees Biden as competent.  Obviously I’m not a Biden fan (at all), but I AM an America fan and am hoping he can navigate this situation in a way that avoids a big war but doesn’t erode our global standing.  The problem is there isn’t a clear path forward now that it started.  
 

 

[GoAU 1,599]

And just to make it even more complicated, I forgot to include the commitments we made as a nation under the Budapest Memorandum.  The general Clif Notes for anyone not familiar are that when the Ukraine split from Russia they would have been #3 globally in the number of nukes they had.  We reassured them from a security standpoint that we would keep them safe if they got rid of their nukes.  They did.  Now??

[jj3jordan 2,039]

Doubt the country has an appetite for another war. You are spot on about Putin being a bully and not seeing an equal out there anywhere in Europe or the US.  My understanding was that Putin wishes to return Russia to it's USSR size with all the satellite nations reclaimed. That is a lot of countries that he will have to "send peacekeeping forces into to stabilize breakaway regions".  I think Ukraine is gone but we have to somehow convince Putin that he can't have any more.  How is that done?

[TexasTiger 12,800]

1 minute ago, jj3jordan said:

Doubt the country has an appetite for another war. You are spot on about Putin being a bully and not seeing an equal out there anywhere in Europe or the US.  My understanding was that Putin wishes to return Russia to it's USSR size with all the satellite nations reclaimed. That is a lot of countries that he will have to "send peacekeeping forces into to stabilize breakaway regions".  I think Ukraine is gone but we have to somehow convince Putin that he can't have any more.  How is that done?

Stranglehold on oligarchs assets and access to banks. Cut trade. Russia is mobster country. Get the oligarchs pissed at Putin’s insanity.

[TexasTiger 12,800]

 

[TitanTiger 20,468]

While we're at it, can someone lock Trump in a room with no internet access and some duct tape over his mouth?  Everything he says about Putin and Russia right now is a level of stupid that shouldn't make it out of his own noggin.

[TexasTiger 12,800]

27 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

While we're at it, can someone lock Trump in a room with no internet access and some duct tape over his mouth?  Everything he says about Putin and Russia right now is a level of stupid that shouldn't make it out of his own noggin.

Anybody who still can’t see that Trump is beholden to Trump for some reason— whatever it may be— is beyond oblivious.

[TitanTiger 20,468]

Tucker making his contribution to the level of stupid.

 

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

So, at what level to you see America getting involved in the Ukraine/Russia conflict?  Troops on the ground?  Weaponry and training of the Ukrainian troops?  

Do you see sanctions being affective and if so, how long will it take for Putin to fold while saving face?

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

Well, I wonder why Putin didn’t think of the issue with Climate Change before he invaded Ukraine.  If he would just listen to John Kerry this could be over.  Diplomacy will win I’m sure.

 

 

[AUFAN78 3,889]

Good article covering many questions being asked here.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/what-the-u-s-owes-its-security-clients/

[alexava 6,973]

1 hour ago, I_M4_AU said:

Well, I wonder why Putin didn’t think of the issue with Climate Change before he invaded Ukraine.  If he would just listen to John Kerry this could be over.  Diplomacy will win I’m sure.

 

 

This is the real concern 

[TexasTiger 12,800]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Tucker making his contribution to the level of stupid.

 

He’s one of the world’s worst humans.

[TexasTiger 12,800]

1 hour ago, I_M4_AU said:

So, at what level to you see America getting involved in the Ukraine/Russia conflict?  Troops on the ground?  Weaponry and training of the Ukrainian troops?  

Do you see sanctions being affective and if so, how long will it take for Putin to fold while saving face?

No boots on the ground. Weapons, to the extent possible. Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions.
 

Depends on his internal situation. His folks don’t want war. Some of his security council folks clearly didn’t want it. It’s not popular. Will he be able to maneuver something to change Russian public opinion? 
 

Best case scenario? Overplays his hand and is replaced Internally— seems a long shot.

Perhaps he waits it out, stretches his resources thin and replays the history of the USSR having more unhappy folks than they can control. Long game.

Best scenario in short term? Decides to pull out with half a loaf and security forces in the easiest regions to hold.

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

7 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

No boots on the ground. Weapons, to the extent possible. Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions.
 

Depends on his internal situation. His folks don’t want war. Some of his security council folks clearly didn’t want it. It’s not popular. Will he be able to maneuver something to change Russian public opinion? 
 

Best case scenario? Overplays his hand and is replaced Internally— seems a long shot.

Perhaps he waits it out, stretches his resources thin and replays the history of the USSR having more unhappy folks than they can control. Long game.

Best scenario in short term? Decides to pull out with half a loaf and security forces in the easiest regions to hold.

Thanks for answering.  It would be nice to be able to gauge the thoughts of the Russian people.  Unfortunately, that will never happen.  Putin seems to have played an *all or nothing* scenario that he believes will be an advantage to him.  I hope the sanctions can prove him wrong.

[TitanTiger 20,468]

 

 

[homersapien 11,352]

2 hours ago, I_M4_AU said:

Well, I wonder why Putin didn’t think of the issue with Climate Change before he invaded Ukraine.  If he would just listen to John Kerry this could be over.  Diplomacy will win I’m sure.

 

Regardless of your absurd effort to extract some sort of political irony from his statement, Kerry is absolutely right.

The world is heading in a terrible direction on multiple fronts, both political and natural.  And the latter is not negotiable.

 

[Grumps 3,693]

6 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

 

Interesting. Thanks for sharing!

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

1 hour ago, homersapien said:

Regardless of your absurd effort to extract some sort of political irony from his statement, Kerry is absolutely right.

The world is heading in a terrible direction on multiple fronts, both political and natural.  And the latter is not negotiable.

 

Do you believe Putin is concerned with climate change?  Europe made themselves reliant on Russian oil and gas by investing heavily in windmills and solar panels that are not up to the task at this point.  This, combined with their views on nuclear power put them in a conundrum.  It is also why there hasn’t been harsher sanctions handed down to Russia.

Do you believe climate change is more of an existential threat than Russia at this point.  Can you go green while Rome is burning?  You might want to consult with Greta Thunberg before you answer.

[Grumps 3,693]

4 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

Tucker making his contribution to the level of stupid.

 

Carlson is again overly dramatic, but I didn't see or hear anything particularly stupid. Was there something specific or is it just Carlson in general that you think is stupid?

[TexasTiger 12,800]

Interesting take:

 

[TexasTiger 12,800]

There’s a smack forum for those more interested in smack than serious discussion. 

[pensacolatiger 313]

15 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Interesting take:

 

I hope he’s right!

[TitanTiger 20,468]

1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

Interesting take:

 

From his lips to God's ears.