US Oil Independence (re: Ukraine/Russia conflict)

[RunInRed 16,385]

Some one who follows this stuff closer than me, help me out here ... I was having a debate this weekend about US Oil Independence.  The gist of the argument with my counterpart was that all these sanctions are missing the major mark because we're still funding Russia via oil imports.  Of course, the usual, "under Trump we were oil independent (e.g., exports outweighed imports) and now under Biden, since he killed the Keystone XL permit, we're having to import again.

I pushed back but didn't really have strong data.  The reason I pushed back was because 1.) the permit for Keystone XL would build incremental capacity - but didn't effect current capacity (e.g., it's not like Biden signed an EO to turn off a spigot) 2.) My understanding was domestic supply decrease that was driven by the shale/fracking boom primarily, was impacted by the pandemic and now that Demand has roared back, supply just hasn't kept up - creating the flip back to Imports outweighing Exports.

But, admittedly, even after some quick Googling, I couldn't get fact-based answers.  Lot of accusatory opinions out there from both sides.

Anyways, I guess my question is, in context of Trump oil policies vs. Bidens, is there any correlation to US Oil Independence?  Thoughts?

[TexasTiger 12,829]

23 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

Some one who follows this stuff closer than me, help me out here ... I was having a debate this weekend about US Oil Independence.  The gist of the argument with my counterpart was that all these sanctions are missing the major mark because we're still funding Russia via oil imports.  Of course, the usual, "under Trump we were oil independent (e.g., exports outweighed imports) and now under Biden, since he killed the Keystone XL permit, we're having to import again.

I pushed back but didn't really have strong data.  The reason I pushed back was because 1.) the permit for Keystone XL would build incremental capacity - but didn't effect current capacity (e.g., it's not like Biden signed an EO to turn off a spigot) 2.) My understanding was domestic supply decrease that was driven by the shale/fracking boom primarily, was impacted by the pandemic and now that Demand has roared back, supply just hasn't kept up - creating the flip back to Imports outweighing Exports.

But, admittedly, even after some quick Googling, I couldn't get fact-based answers.  Lot of accusatory opinions out there from both sides.

Anyways, I guess my question is, in context of Trump oil policies vs. Bidens, is there any correlation to US Oil Independence?  Thoughts?

I thought this was a good article:

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5882313

[SaltyTiger 7,789]

Looking at the same argument this morning. Not claiming to be knowledgeable and sure we have here who have studied the situation.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/23/facebook-posts/us-importing-large-amount-russian-oil-facebook-pos/

 

"The imbecile in chief is now importing 800,000 barrels of oil from Russia. Guess how much oil the (Keystone XL pipeline) would have carried from Canada? I will give you a hint. It rhymes with 800,000 barrels."

We rate the statement Half True.

[TexasTiger 12,829]

18 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Looking at the same argument this morning. Not claiming to be knowledgeable and sure we have here who have studied the situation.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/23/facebook-posts/us-importing-large-amount-russian-oil-facebook-pos/

 

"The imbecile in chief is now importing 800,000 barrels of oil from Russia. Guess how much oil the (Keystone XL pipeline) would have carried from Canada? I will give you a hint. It rhymes with 800,000 barrels."

We rate the statement Half True.

“Half true” overstates their own assessment. They point out many caveats (one is that oil, if produced, can be transported in other ways to refineries. We could also build refineries closer to the production), the most critical of which, those theoretical 800k barrels would still have been years away having zero impact on the current situation. Given the assertion claimed, it’s more accurate to frame it as a big lie wrapped around a kernel of truth.

[SaltyTiger 7,789]

1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

“Half true” overstates their own assessment. They point out many caveats (one is that oil, if produced, can be transported in other ways to refineries. We could also build refineries closer to the production), the most critical of which, those theoretical 800k barrels would still have been years away having zero impact on the current situation. Given the assertion claimed, it’s more accurate to frame it as a big lie wrapped around a kernel of truth.

Hannity did a great job of convincing people that the keystone pipeline was a simple answer to many of our problems a few years ago.

[homersapien 11,362]

Regardless, our focus should be on consuming less oil not more.

[bigbird 60,494]

7 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Regardless, our focus should be on consuming less oil not more.

I think both are true. We should consume less and raise domestic production to become independent. Our equilibrium point needs to be adjusted, IMO.

[jj3jordan 2,050]

Closing fracking on federal land, denying permits, shutting down ANWAR, the keystone pipeline all have effects on oil prices. Keystone would have reduced prices by bring oil from canada which is currently transported by rail (owned by WB). So yes it would help. The other actions were in fact cutting off spigots.  Instead of asking for other countries to increase production, he could allow us to be energy independent easily by reversing his policies.  But he can't due to the global warming lobby.  They have a firm grip on his...policies.

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

As per usual, this administration is playing catch up:

BERLIN, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Germany signalled a U-turn in key energy policies on Sunday, floating the possibility of extending the life-spans of coal and even nuclear plants to cut dependency on Russian gas, part of a broad political rethink following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plans-cut-dependence-russia-gas-2022-02-27/

This is Germany the most green nation on earth and they know it is not wise to rely on Russian oil and gas.  Their infrastructure is not ready to go without fossil fuels and realize that fact.  They are also more threatened by the Russian invasion than America is.

The Russian invasion is a temporary predicament and allowing more oil production in a time of need is essential to deter Russian aggression.  If we can’t be flexible because we are too stubborn we will be dependent on others and not a leader in this fight.  JMO.

Edited February 28, 2022 by I_M4_AU

[TexasTiger 12,829]

28 minutes ago, jj3jordan said:

Closing fracking on federal land, denying permits, shutting down ANWAR, the keystone pipeline all have effects on oil prices. Keystone would have reduced prices by bring oil from canada which is currently transported by rail (owned by WB). So yes it would help. The other actions were in fact cutting off spigots.  Instead of asking for other countries to increase production, he could allow us to be energy independent easily by reversing his policies.  But he can't due to the global warming lobby.  They have a firm grip on his...policies.

Keystone XL would still have been years away.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

22 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I think both are true. We should consume less and raise domestic production to become independent. Our equilibrium point needs to be adjusted, IMO.

Maybe we should stop subsidizing traditional and alternative energy?  We want cheap energy so,,,  we will finance consumption by adding it to the national debt?

Energy independence through traditional sources is a mirage.  We may have the oil and coal but, it is far from the cheapest in the world to recover, refine, utilize.

At the very least, alternative sources lead to a real solution for everyone except the traditional energy producers.  I think they will be okay.

 

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

2 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

We may have the oil and coal but, it is far from the cheapest in the world to recover, refine, utilize.

Really, you would rather depend on China for N95 masks when there is a dire need for them?  How about other pharmaceuticals because they are cheap?  Oops different country.  I mean, you would rather rely on our enemies for essential oil and gas because it is cheaper?  Especially when we are trying to deter a war in Europe?  

We must remember the Biden’s prime objective, the existential threat of climate change.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

1 minute ago, I_M4_AU said:

Really, you would rather depend on China for N95 masks when there is a dire need for them?  How about other pharmaceuticals because they are cheap?  Oops different country.  I mean, you would rather rely on our enemies for essential oil and gas because it is cheaper?  Especially when we are trying to deter a war in Europe?  

We must remember the Biden’s prime objective, the existential threat of climate change.

That is light years away from the point.  And, you have to remember the type of commodity energy is.  It is hardly equatable to masks or medicine.  It is necessary for the production and transportation of roughly 85% of global production.  If your energy independent energy is grotesquely more expensive, you are at an extreme economic disadvantage globally.  Get it?

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

11 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

That is light years away from the point.  And, you have to remember the type of commodity energy is.  It is hardly equatable to masks or medicine.  It is necessary for the production and transportation of roughly 85% of global production.  If your energy independent energy is grotesquely more expensive, you are at an extreme economic disadvantage globally.  Get it?

Interestingly enough, gas was 91 cents cheaper a year ago when we were energy independent.  So your *IF* statement does not hold true.  Also, have you seen the gas prices in Europe?  It’s been awhile, but recently a liter of gas was about the same price (a little cheaper) than a gallon of gas at home.  I’m not sure you do get it.

The point if the masks and medicine is America is better off if we can produce what we need at home.  Our stock piles of masks were low and showed a glaring need to replenish  Hopefully that is done, I don’t know, but if we are unable to produce what we need in a time of necessity we could be reliant on our enemies for help.

 

[TexasTiger 12,829]

23 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Interestingly enough, gas was 91 cents cheaper a year ago when we were energy independent.  So your *IF* statement does not hold true.  Also, have you seen the gas prices in Europe?  It’s been awhile, but recently a liter of gas was about the same price (a little cheaper) than a gallon of gas at home.  I’m not sure you do get it.

The point if the masks and medicine is America is better off if we can produce what we need at home.  Our stock piles of masks were low and showed a glaring need to replenish  Hopefully that is done, I don’t know, but if we are unable to produce what we need in a time of necessity we could be reliant on our enemies for help.

 

What else was happening a year ago that impacted fuel demand?

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

What else was happening a year ago that impacted fuel demand?

Why be coy?

[icanthearyou 4,462]

29 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Interestingly enough, gas was 91 cents cheaper a year ago when we were energy independent.  So your *IF* statement does not hold true.  Also, have you seen the gas prices in Europe?  It’s been awhile, but recently a liter of gas was about the same price (a little cheaper) than a gallon of gas at home.  I’m not sure you do get it.

The point if the masks and medicine is America is better off if we can produce what we need at home.  Our stock piles of masks were low and showed a glaring need to replenish  Hopefully that is done, I don’t know, but if we are unable to produce what we need in a time of necessity we could be reliant on our enemies for help.

 

Sorry, there is no basis in reality on which to respond.  The oil is either there or, it isn't.  You don't seem to have any understanding of relative costs or, the global energy markets. 

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

16 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

Sorry, there is no basis in reality on which to respond.  The oil is either there or, it isn't.  You don't seem to have any understanding of relative costs or, the global energy markets. 

Great explanation, thanks.  

[icanthearyou 4,462]

5 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Great explanation, thanks.  

I am truly very sorry but, you have to make an effort.  Sure, domestic production of goods is better.  However, relative costs are fundamental to the discussion. 

It is complex.  Specifics matter.  You have to go deeper than the Partisan Politics Entertainment Channels. 

[autigeremt 6,598]

21 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

I am truly very sorry but, you have to make an effort.  Sure, domestic production of goods is better.  However, relative costs are fundamental to the discussion. 

It is complex.  Specifics matter.  You have to go deeper than the Partisan Politics Entertainment Channels. 

Great post and accurate. "If" the political class could get past their own individual commercial interests we could truly move a lot farther away from fossil fuel use and to a more diversified energy portfolio. We need to become independent AND work towards a cleaner tomorrow. 

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

1 minute ago, autigeremt said:

Great post and accurate. "If" the political class could get past their own individual commercial interests we could truly move a lot farther away from fossil fuel use and to a more diversified energy portfolio. We need to become independent AND work towards a cleaner tomorrow. 

Good pie in the sky thought, but we aren’t there yet.  Please tell be how long it will take and how you take the political class out of the equation?

[autigeremt 6,598]

We needed to build the pipeline so we could stop shipping the crude on trains and trucks. It's safer in the end. Mitigating shipping risk of highly flammable crude oil should be just as important as the oil itself... but I do get the environmental impacts in areas where waterways are. 

I'm not an oil and gas professional but I have dealt with many of the solvents produced from it and there's a lot of need for crude well beyond the cars we drive and electricity that is being created. Nearly everything we touch on a daily basis is effected by petroleum in some way. 

[autigeremt 6,598]

3 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Good pie in the sky thought, but we aren’t there yet.  Please tell be how long it will take and how you take the political class out of the equation?

It's not pie in the sky....we're getting closer to more options everyday. As for the political class....more citizens need to unite against the two parties and build a more proactive third rail. 

[I_M4_AU 7,796]

Just now, autigeremt said:

It's not pie in the sky....we're getting closer to more options everyday. As for the political class....more citizens need to unite against the two parties and build a more proactive third rail. 

How close?  Is it close enough to affect Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?  If it is not, than wtf?  We take a little hiatus from the existential threat resume later when things settle down.  That is what Germany is doing.

[autigeremt 6,598]

10 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

How close?  Is it close enough to affect Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?  If it is not, than wtf?  We take a little hiatus from the existential threat resume later when things settle down.  That is what Germany is doing.

I'm not sure there's an immediate thing this administration can or will do other than releasing reserves in the short term. Reversing the XL, allowing a new nuclear plant to be built....many things can be done to become independent in the short term. Long term many things can be done but it will take a push from the populous and those who truly want to see a shift.